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Republicans in Iowa and Kansas feel vulnerable due to the rush of money and campaign stops
Midterm elections are just a little over a month off. Republican heavyweights like John McCain and Mitt Romney have been traveling across the country to campaign. Outside groups have also been investing money in races that would normally be the safest for the Republican Party, such as Farm Belt States like Iowa and Kansas. According to political scientists and campaign strategists, the money and attention show just how vulnerable Republicans are, as high prices, particularly for gasoline and diesel have disappointed their 'usual supporters. Republican voters are increasingly dissatisfied with President Donald Trump's economic management. This is one of the reasons why his approval ratings have fallen to 32%, according to a September 21, /Ipsos survey, which was the lowest in his political career. The spending is a reflection of the competitiveness in these races, said Republican strategist Brad Dayspring from Purple Strategies Alexandria, Virginia. "Republicans fight for their political future, and they use every arrow to ensure their message gets through," said Republican strategist Brad Dayspring of Purple Strategies in Alexandria, Virginia. Vice President JDVance has recently been campaigning in Iowa for US Senate Candidate Ashley Hinson and earlier this year, Republican Representative Zach Nunn. Vance made a second stop in Kansas to rally support for Republican senator Roger "Doc Marshall". As the general election approaches, these two states as well as Nebraska where Republican Pete Ricketts faces off against independent Dan Osborn look to be competitive. Senator John Kennedy from Louisiana recently visited all three states to campaign on behalf of Republicans. Kennedy stated, "If you had told me six-months ago that I would be spending my time in these three states, I probably wouldn't have believed you." "Those should be fat guy layups." The Effects of FARM BELT FEELINGS According to a September 21 poll, Republicans disapproving of Trump's handling the cost of living now outnumber those in favor 51% to 44%. Diesel fuel prices have risen to a record-breaking $6.50 per gallon due to the war with Iran. Diesel fuel is used in vehicles such as pickup trucks and farm machinery, so the price increase is particularly severe in states where agriculture is dominant, like Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska. Hinson, a Republican from?Iowa's western edge, is fighting a losing battle against Democrat Josh Turek. In a Marist poll conducted on September 22, Hinson was ranked behind Turek with 42% of respondents in favor of Hinson, compared to Turek’s 50%. Hinson, a member of the US House of Representatives who is still in office, voted against measures to limit Trump's authority for the continuation of the Iran war six times. Hinson changed her stance after Vance's visit on September 18, calling for an end to the war. Hinson didn't attend the rally that was headlined by Vance. He called her "an amazing public servant" at the event and promised to get her re-elected even though "I knew she couldn't have been here today." Republican-aligned PACs have spent more than $30 million on the Turek campaign. More than $11.7 millions of that has come since Labor Day. According to federal election filings that exclude nonprofit groups who are not required by law to disclose their expenditures, Democrats have spent $24.3 to support Turek. KANSAS LOOKS COMPETITIVE Vance made his trip to Kansas at the same time that Marshall, an obstetrician and former politician who was elected for?2020, was facing reports claiming he had sued over 700 patients due to unpaid medical debts. Marshall's spokesperson responded to the New York Times reporting by saying that he "treated patients regardless of their ability to pay". A recent?polling by Emerson College/Nexstar media placed Adam Hamilton, the church pastor who is Marshall's Democratic opponent, within the margins of error. Hamilton was backed by 45% of respondents, while the Republican senator received 43%. Hamilton would be the first Democratic Senator elected from Kansas in 94 Years if he won. According to Federal Election Commission figures, outside Democratic groups began targeting the race towards the end of August. They have spent about $2.3million, showing that they believe Hamilton has the potential to unseat Marshall. Republican-leaning organizations have invested about $1.6million in the race but only $27,500 after Labor Day. Vance's visits are used to encourage loyal voters to vote in midterm elections. The outcome of these elections depends on the turnout of the party's most ardent supporters. These visits can have a negative impact, according to?Alexandra Middlewood of Wichita State University, professor of Political Science. She said Kansas is home to a large number of independent voters who are less likely than others to be influenced by big-name endorsements. Visits like Vance's in an era when Republicans and Trump have become increasingly unpopular could further exacerbate negative feelings. Ron Bonjean, partner at the bipartisan public relations firm Rokk Solutions said about Vance's Iowa visit: "If they are going to a Republican stronghold so late in a campaign it shows that there is a desire to shore up their support to make sure there aren't any problems on election night."
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Costco's sales surpass estimates, as gas discounts and bulk purchases attract inflation-weary consumers
Costco Wholesale surpassed quarterly sales estimates on Thursday. Inflationary pressures pushed consumers to discount gas stations, and warehouse demand increased. According to LSEG, the warehouse retailer beat analysts' expectations of $6.53 per share by reporting adjusted earnings of $6.60 in the fourth quarter. The quarterly revenue rose by about 11% from a year ago to $95.72 Billion, exceeding Wall Street's estimates of $94.86 Billion. Total same-store revenue excluding 'gas and foreign exchange effect' rose 6.7%. This was higher than analysts' expectations. Costco's low-priced bulk model, along with its discounted fuel offer, has helped to attract shoppers amid the persistent cost pressures. Arun Sundaram, CFRA analyst, said that Costco had another well-rounded third, with its comparable sales growth leading all other big-box retailers, thanks to balanced traffic and an increase in average ticket. The CEO of the company, Ron Vachris, said that gasoline was a major sales driver. Oliver Chen, TD Cowen's analyst, says that Costco gas stations are attracting customers who are price sensitive as fuel prices rise due to the Iran War. Costco CFO Gary Millerchip revealed in a call following the earnings that the company had received 'tariff refunds' of $184m during the third quarter, under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Ron Vachris, CEO of Ron Vachris, said that the refunds were reinvested in price reductions for some products, such as essentials, meats, beverages and non-food items. As shoppers consolidate trips, they are buying more groceries and other essentials on a single trip rather than making multiple trips. In extended trading, the company's shares were unchanged. The stock had risen by nearly 4% this year as of Thursday's closing.
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Beyond the high-profile conflicts, there is a global battle for resources
Pakistani media reported that the militants who attacked a lithium mine in Balochistan, Pakistan, last month, had a clear message. They destroyed equipment and briefly held employees, indicating they would no longer tolerate mining in the area. Foreign and local mining companies should also stay away. While the Middle East wars and Ukraine conflict dominated headlines, and as the United States and China negotiated their still largely non-violent face-off culminating with the meeting between President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping last week, a number of other overlapping conflicts over resources have raged throughout the 'world in 2026. The US, European Union, and Pacific governments are locked behind the scenes in a high-stakes race that is still escalating to separate themselves from China when it comes to the resources that drive modern technology. The conflict in Central Africa is fueled by rare earths, minerals and gold. In Sudan, the civil war continues to be fuelled largely by smuggling of gold that goes into the pockets of groups devoted to ethnic violence. This week, world leaders will gather in New York for the annual United Nations General Assembly. But much of the global conflict is now taking place behind closed doors with dramatically rising stakes. The US-Iran conflict in the Gulf, sparked by US-Israeli Operation Epic Fury - has now been widened and includes a worsening confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran backed Houthi rebels. This could cause a shock to the energy supply that would significantly derail the global economy. OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman, among others, briefed the Security Council on the issue of artificial intelligence, which is rapidly evolving. Both sides have discussed a possible suspension of attacks against energy infrastructure as part of the discussions over Ukraine. The raw materials needed for the ongoing technological revolution and computing are at stake. This includes copper, which is used in almost all forms of circuitry. It also includes lithium batteries, rare earths, and a variety of other minerals. In June, the European Commission joined the US State Department-coordinated "Pax Silica", a Washington-led collective of more than two dozen nations that commenced with an agreement between the US and Japan in September and has expanded since to include much of Europe, as ?well as key Pacific allies. According to AlixPartners consultancy, Beijing is still responsible for 70% of rare-earth mining, 85% refining capacity, and 90% of rare-earth metal alloys and magnets. Industry experts say that the latter is a major problem for aerospace manufacturers and chip makers. Foreign diplomats have said the US has struggled to regain the initiative. The battle for resources is therefore of particular importance, even though it can be difficult to monitor due to the limitations in reporting and established facts. It is evident, however, that they have already become a part of this wider conflict. BALOCHISTAN MINERAL MINING IS TARGETED ACLED, a global monitoring NGO that stands for Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, has reported at least 40 different incidents of mining interests being targeted in Balochistan in 2026. Local media are now reporting a wider variety of incidents that occur almost daily, including an ambush of nearly three dozen mining vehicles and ensuing firefight at the end August which left at least thirteen militants dead. Some stories describe suspected militants who were detained, then discovered dead. Others tell of victims of extrajudicial killings suspected to have been committed by private security or government personnel. The question of who is behind the various overlapping Baloch militant groups remains a hotly debated issue. India has denied the allegations. Pakistan accuses India's Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) intelligence agency of coordinating and arming these attacks. This is the poorest region in Pakistan. According to reports, guerrillas are crossing the border into Pakistan from Iran and Afghanistan. It is clear that their opposition to Chinese mining has risen dramatically in recent years. The US condemned the attacks, but did not comment in detail. However, the government of Islamabad had increasingly offered itself as a partner to the Trump administration, as well as a resource. Asim Munir, Pakistan's de facto leader and military chief, visited Trump in the Oval Office on October 20, 2025. He brought a wooden display of minerals with him before signing a memorandum committing $500 million. Mining currently accounts for less than 1% in Pakistan's GDP. However, the government says that it has up to $6 trillion worth of undeveloped reserves. The Reko Dik copper and gold mine is one of the largest projects in Pakistan. It's unusually owned by a Canadian company Barrick, not a Chinese conglomerate. The convoy of vehicles ambushed was returning from a mine that is due to start production in 2029. Other Resource Flashpoints Central Asia is also increasingly in the crosshairs for global resource competition. Kazakhstan was the first country in the region to join the US-run Pax Silica, but joined the China-run World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organisation just three weeks later. The US State Department immediately warned that joining the Pax 'Silica' collective would be incompatible with joining Chinese rival entities. Washington will continue to seek new deals for resources with the Kazakhstani government. The Kazakhstani government has some of the largest uranium stockpiles in the world, as well as copper, beryllium tantalum lead and zinc. Last November, the US hosted five of the major Central Asian countries at a crucial mineral summit. They also struck deals with Uzbekistan et Tajikistan. South Korea held its own mineral summit with Central Asian governments this month. Japanese media reported last week that Tokyo will launch its own strategy with a similar goal next year. Japan has also been at the forefront in what is now "often" described as "urban mine mining". Four Japanese companies announced in April that they will use robots to recover the neodymium magnetic materials critical for computer hard drives. Some firms are pursuing remote undersea mining projects in order to access resources that were previously out of reach. Trump's administration is also pursuing a variety of commercial and diplomatic initiatives in Latin America. They are keen to counter the dominance of Chinese firms in the so-called "Lithium Triangle", which includes Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia. However, Chinese trade in South America has continued to grow sharply this year. This week in the Oval Office, Trump and Xi may have tried to appear like two geopolitical giants dividing up the world. The reality is much messier and the race for resources is just getting started in the new industrial era.
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Oil price jumps send 30-year yields to a two-decade high
The bond markets were under pressure again on Thursday, with US 30-year bonds yields reaching a record high. Rising oil prices sparked concerns over higher inflation and more Federal Reserve rate hikes. After a Houthi rocket attack on Saudi Arabia, oil prices rose about 3%. However, trade was volatile. Prices fell after reports that the US and Iran had discussed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The interest-rate-sensitive US 2-year note rose 2.51 basis points to 4.92%. The yield on US benchmark 10-year notes has increased by 8.17 basis points, to 5.196%. This is the highest level since 2007. The 30-year bond rate increased by 7.96 basis points, to 5.4816%. This is the highest level since 2004. Gennadiy goldberg, head US rates strategy at TD Securities, said that the move up in Treasury yields was likely driven by a mix of factors, including rising expectations for Fed hikes, increased growth expectations, high oil prices, fiscal concerns and hyperscaler issuance. Investor positioning in the face of a rapid rise in oil prices is likely to have exacerbated this sharp increase. The yield gap between French 10-year bonds and German 10-year bonds has reached its highest level since Mario Draghi’s "Whatever It Takes" speech in 2012. The move on Thursday follows a sharp drop in yields for benchmark 10-year notes that took place Wednesday, when they posted their biggest daily gain since the tariff crisis of April 2025. That was driven in part by stronger-than-expected US business activity data, which showed prices paid surged to a nearly four-year high this month. Two Fed policymakers stated on Thursday that the US central bank would likely need to increase interest rates once again in order to reduce unacceptably high levels of inflation. Fed funds futures traders now price in 71% odds that the Fed will?hike rates next month. This is up from 53% just before Wednesday's data. Treasury Department auctioned off 7-year Treasury Notes worth $44 billion on Thursday. This follows a weak demand at the $70 billion 5-year sale held Wednesday. Treasury also announced that it had bought back $4.078 Billion in bonds with a maturity of 20 to 30 years as part its ongoing buybacks for market liquidity. During the operation, bonds worth $10.46 billion were sold. The company had previously said that it would purchase up to $6 billion of debt. YIELDS STOCKS PRESSURE The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.31%, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite remained roughly flat for the day. Tuesday, the Nasdaq reached a new record high. The MSCI World Index fell by 0.29%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 Index was down by 0.55%. Traders worry that higher bond rates could derail the equity rally, making borrowing costs more expensive and causing investors to move from stocks into bonds. Some analysts claim that despite Thursday's weak performance, financial conditions are still supportive of an economy and stock market with a strong foundation. Antonio Del Favero is the head of US rates at Macro Hive. He said that financial conditions will likely remain loose if the S&P500 does not drop by 20% or more, nor do the Nasdaq Composite prices fall even further. When the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds broke above 5%, the MSCI World Index lost half its value. This was shortly before the global financial crises. A similar decline occurred less than 10 years ago, when an increase of nearly 6.8% helped burst 'dotcom bubble. TRADE TENSIONS US President Donald Trump hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House for a lavish summit on Thursday. Both leaders were keen to show stable ties despite a number of thorny topics such as?AI and trade, Taiwan, and the war against Iran. Analysts expect few if any major developments, but Washington and Beijing could extend their 11-month 'trade truce. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the two sides reached an agreement on a two-month initial extension. Trump met Xi personally at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland. The euro dropped 0.04% to $1.1376 on the currency markets, after hitting a 2-month low. The dollar gained 0.38% against the Japanese yen to 158.88. Spot gold dropped 0.3% to $4.274.14 per ounce.
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Hurricane Polo is expected to land on Sunday night and bring heavy rains to Mexico.
The US National Hurricane Center said that on Thursday, Hurricane Polo was crawling northwest off the mainland as it is "extremely strong". Polo, with maximum sustained winds of 155 miles an hour (250 km/h), has been classified as the last Category 4 storm. This is a step down from the previous highest level, Saffir-Simpson, that it previously achieved. The NHC is constantly adjusting the storm's strength and said that it may see some near-term improvement. It also expects the storm to remain as a major hurricane over the next few days. AccuWeather is a private forecaster that predicted Polo would make landfall on the Baja California Peninsula north of Cabo San Lucas, and then lose steam, reaching a Category 2 hurricane. Local authorities had already started to restrict beach access and close the local port. NHC stated that Polo's outer bands of rain are spreading onto the shore and causing heavy rains. It said that tropical-storm-force wind is likely to be blowing along the coast of southwest Mexico. Polo's winds can reach up to 65 km (40 miles) away from its center, and can extend up to 125 km (205 miles). The Mexican states of Michoacan and Colima are expecting additional rainfall of up to 4 inches (or 50.8 mm) with some isolated totals as high as 6 inches. The?NHC warned that "these swells will likely cause dangerous surf, rip-currents, and coastal flooding." AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Nicholas Arman stated that some rain and moisture could be pulled into Texas if the storm stays on its expected path. He said: "This is textbook El Nino impact where the strong tropical development of the Pacific?ultimately pushes moist into the southwest US." The amount of rain and moisture that reaches Texas is dependent on how well the storm can cross the Sierra Madre Mountains, a large mountain range system which runs from northwest to southeast through western and northwestern Mexico, as well as along the Gulf of California. Arman said that the Sierra Madre acts like a "cheese grater" to any system organized in tropical areas, shredding them apart and making it impossible for anything organized to stay together.
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Indian billionaire Ambani's Reliance Industries eyes $1 bln debt fundraise, bankers say
Reliance Industries, owned by Indian billionaire Mukesh Amani, is set to raise the second tranche of its mega-fundraising plan through the sale rupee-denominated bonds just a few weeks after raising shorter-term debt. Oil-to-telecom company plans to raise $1.04 billion through the sale of 10-year bonds with an annual coupon rate of 7.90%. Bankers say that the company will invite investors to bid next week or in the following week. Reliance Industries didn't immediately respond to an email seeking comment. The bankers asked for anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. One of the bankers stated that "ideally, the company would like to finish the borrowing before the central bank's monetary policy announcement on October 7". RelianceIndustries sold five-year paper with an annual coupon of 7.47% two weeks ago. This was the first rupee bond issue by the conglomerate since November 2023 when it raised 200 billion in the largest debt sale of local currency at that time. The bankers stated that large?private sector banks?would also likely act as arrangers of the new deal, and would be partially?subscribing? to these bonds. The bankers said that the relatively?benign yields on local bonds have made this funding cheaper than a?US debt because Treasury yields?have seen a massive spike. The company has 540 billion rupees in outstanding bonds.
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China's fuel stocks have fallen to their lowest levels in over a decade, causing concern over the return of export restrictions
According to GL Consulting, China's gasoline inventories and diesel stocks have?fallen?to their lowest levels for more than a decade due to a surge in exports and a seasonal recovery of domestic demand. Rystad Energy reports that low stock levels have raised Beijing's concerns, which could lead to tighter controls on exports in October. GL Consulting expects October exports to drop as refiners prioritize domestic energy security. According to data from GL Consulting, a consultancy that is owned by Mysteel (a leading commodity provider), commercial gasoline inventories are at their lowest levels since 2011. Diesel inventories, meanwhile, have?fallen down to their lowest level since 2015. China does not publish fuel inventory data. GL Consulting, however, has records dating back to 2011. Beijing, the world's largest crude oil importer, has imposed restrictions on fuel exports in mid-March after supply disruptions forced refiners into reducing runs. China began to ease the restrictions by mid-July. Exports returned to prewar levels during August and are expected to continue their momentum into September. Refiners have made windfall profits and increased refinery runs. China has not yet released its October fuel export plans to refiners. Analysts have also reduced their estimates of China's fourth quarter crude imports, as Middle East supply disruptions continue to intensify. They expect the current refinery runs rates?to not be sustainable. Energy Aspects' forecast for China’s fourth-quarter oil imports was lowered to 9.2 million barrels. Rystad Energy's fourth-quarter forecast for refinery throughput has been lowered by 880,000 barrels per day from its previous estimate. Independent?refiners are being forced to reduce their run rates due to high crude prices. State-owned refiners are also in their maintenance season and cannot offset the production deficit," said Ye Lin, vice President at Rystad. "The result is that the sector has little room for manoeuvre." Export restrictions could also lead to lower export margins. However, China needs to protect its domestic supply.
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Erdogan, Erdogan: Equal climate pace is unrealistic due to funding gaps
Turkish President Tayyip Erdoan said that it is unrealistic to expect all countries to achieve the same 'progress on climate policies, while there are still inequalities regarding access to technology and financing. He also added that he expected support for Turkey's COP31 Climate Summit Action Agenda from a majority of nations. The COP31 President of Turkey laid out a plan on Monday to turn existing climate commitments into tangible results and projects. This included raising the electricity share in energy consumption by 2035, and reducing projected increases in municipal garbage by half. Australia has agreed to lead formal negotiations for COP31. Turkey will be responsible for the presidency and action agenda. The summit is being held in Antalya, a southern Turkish province from 9-20 November. At the United Nations Climate Summit in New York on Wednesday, Erdogan stated that Turkey and Australia are continuing their preparations in order to ensure the expectations of every region is included in the agenda. He also said he thought a pre-COP in Fiji and a meeting between leaders in Tuvalu would be valuable in ensuring the voice of Pacific?nations was heard. Erdogan added that he expects a'strong support' from all countries to the COP31 agenda. "The steps that will increase the prosperity of countries must be determined by their own circumstances, resources and priorities for development. "While?inequalities persist in access to technology and financing, it's not realistic to expect that all countries will advance at the same pace," he said. "We cannot?make a transition that is just and lasting unless we create a strong connection between climate goals, development and prosperity."
New Greenland agreement likely to see US troops stationed at a desolate Arctic outpost
A small Danish military detachment has quietly watched over a wind-swept 'gravel airstrip' in eastern Greenland for decades.
Under a new US defense agreement signed this week, Mestersvig may soon be a major American military base in the Arctic.
Mestersvig is 240 km (149 miles), or a distance of 149 miles, from the nearest settlement with a population of 330 people. It lies at the edge if a national park that is larger than Germany combined. The area is completely dark during the winter with temperatures around minus 10 degrees Celsius.
It is the most remote, coldest, and extreme place you will ever find. "You have to go to Antarctica for similar conditions," Anders Ibsen said, a former Danish Sirius dog-sled patrol officer, an elite unit which uses?Mestersvig as a resupply.
STRATEGIC CHOKEPOINT
The GIUK gap is the ocean stretch between Greenland and Britain, known as the GIUK Gap. This is the distance that Russia's Northern Fleet has to cross in order to reach the 'Atlantic. Controlling this chokepoint for NATO is crucial to contain Russian naval power.
Justus Hansen, a local member of parliament, welcomed the expansion. He said: "In East Greenland, it is really needed."
Washington is allowed to set up a new base in southern Greenland at Mestersvig or Narsarsuaq under the agreement. This could be the first US military expansion in years on this vast semi-autonomous Arctic Island.
The facility was constructed in the 1960s, and it includes barracks for 150 soldiers.
The US has not made any public announcements about the plans for this base.
A HISTORY WITHOUT INTEREST
This stretch of coast on the Arctic island became the front line during World War II in a "weather war". Germany and the Allies raced to determine the weather conditions in Greenland, which would later affect the North Atlantic, and Europe.
Germans built manned stations in this area, but Danish dog sleds found them and Allied forces removed them.
A nearby EU-backed project is aiming to mine molybdenum, a metal critical for aerospace and defense. It's about 20 km (12 miles) from the site. Texas oil company wants to drill for oil in an untested basin south of Mestersvig this winter, but it does not have a permit.
The previous owner ARCO spent heavily on seismic work but never drilled in the 1970s.
Greenland Energy's CEO, Robert Price, said that any infrastructural improvement in Greenland is welcome.
The 1.8 km (1.1 mile) airstrip, which is long enough to land military transport planes, can accumulate up to five meters of snow per year. Ibsen said that when it snows, "you're basically removing the snow 24/7" - a former dog sled officer who spent an entire year in Mestersvig.
You have a lot to do even just to stay alive.
(source: Reuters)