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Falling oil prices provide support for bonds in trouble

Falling oil prices provide support for bonds in trouble
Falling oil prices provide support for bonds in trouble

US Treasury yields stabilized on Friday, with benchmark 10-year note yields moving lower for the day as oil prices fell, after having earlier reached new'multi-decade highs', and traders priced in more Federal Reserve interest rate increases.

The AI industry continued to be a source of optimism, which boosted the stock market.

The oil price fell by about 3% as traders grew more hopeful of a possible truce between Iran and the US. However, they were also concerned that the Houthi fighters' increased attacks on Saudi Arabia could cause a disruption in the Middle Eastern producers supply.

The US Treasury yields are at their highest level since the financial crises, mainly due to persistent concerns about inflation.

While the latest signs of 'diplomatic progress' in the Middle East may have temporarily eased geopolitical worries, the market is still unconvinced of the prospect of a normalization of the global energy supply," said Ian Lyngen, BMO Capital Markets head of US rates. The bond market is experiencing a daily downward trend.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury Yield fell 0.37 basis point to 5.158% after earlier reaching 5.2297% - the highest since 2007.

The 30-year bond rate rose by 2.63 basis points, to 5.4883%. It had previously reached 5.5319%.

The ICE BofA MOVE Index is a measure for?bond market volatility. It has risen by about 30% in the last week. This is the biggest increase since April 2025's Liberation Day tariff chaos.

A survey released on Friday showed that US consumer sentiment fell to a new low of four months in September, amid fears?that rising prices would reduce the purchasing power of households.

Japan's 10-year bonds yield reached 3.121% elsewhere, a record level last seen in 1996. Five of the most influential central bankers in the Group of 10 have increased rates this month. The rest have signaled a pending hike or warned of increasing inflation.

STOCKS STAY BOUGANT

The stock market has remained resilient despite bond market turmoil. US stocks have rallied on AI-driven optimism, and hope for improved Middle East oil supplies.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.93%. The S&P 500 rose by 0.51%, and the Nasdaq Composite grew by 0.48%.

Microsoft's 2026 gain jumped to 7% after it unveiled new features in its Copilot application, such as a coding app and an AI agent that is always on.

The MSCI?gauge for stocks around the world rose by 0.53%. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 0.35%.

US President Donald Trump hosted Xi Jinping, the Chinese President, at 'the White House' on Thursday. The lavish summit was laden with symbolism, but lacking in substance. There were no signs of progress on thorny topics such as AI and trade, Taiwan, or even the 'war with Iran.

DOLLAR OPTIMISM

Analysts expect further Fed tightening to keep the US currency strong.

Morgan Stanley analysts, led by David S. Adams, said in a report on Friday that they expect the dollar to remain strong through 2027. They cited?favorable rate differentials against peers, robust US economic growth and heightened political risks in Europe.

The euro rose 0.14% to $1.1395.

The dollar fell 1.01% against the Japanese yen to 157.22. Satsuki Katayama, Japan's Finance minister, said that Trump expressed concern over the yen during a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takayichi this week.

Spot gold increased 0.31%, to $4.291.25 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)