Latest News

Stocks and bonds fall as central banks raise rates to combat inflation

As markets neared the end of the week, marked by an international push to curb inflation, global shares and bonds fell on Friday. Japan's much-telegraphed increase failed to support the yen.

This week's monetary policy was the "prime" focus, as the Middle East war is approaching the seven-month mark and shows few signs of ending. Oil prices are still above $100 per barrel, fueling inflation concerns.

After the Bank of Japan increased rates to a record high of 1.25 percent, the Japanese currency was on its way to the biggest daily decline since mid-February. The dollar rose 1% to reach 157.54 after the Bank of Japan. Two board members dissented from the decision.

The Japanese currency is up 1.6% this month. This rise has been attributed to?expectations that the BOJ will increase its rate of hikes and early signs from Japanese investors of their intention to repatriate their money.

The Federal Reserve increased rates on Wednesday for the first time in three years and took a more aggressive approach to inflation. This knocked down the yen which is now on track for its worst performance against the US dollar for two years.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that with inflation nearing 2% the focus of the bank had shifted. Most members of the central board believe the policy is still accommodating, even after the Friday hike.

Chris Scicluna is the head of research at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe. He said that with the Fed raising rates there was the risk the yen would weaken again sharply, further exacerbating the inflation.

If inflation and demand are resilient, then it is likely that the door will remain open to further tightening. He said that a rate hike of 1.50% by the end the year seemed like a good bet.

HAWKS CRIRCLING

The BOJ's decision concludes a series of meetings at which central bankers have increased their hawkish rhetoric.

The average interest rate in September was the highest since July 2023. Four countries raised rates, and other G10 members indicated that they might need to raise rates soon.

The Bank of England left UK interest rates unchanged on Thursday, but warned that it might have to raise them if the Iran war continues. Last week, the European Central Bank also signaled a need for tighter monetary policy as it increased rates. Australia's top banker said on Friday that some of the inflation risks that policymakers had flagged were beginning to materialize.

RETRATING OIL PRICES LIFTS SENTIMENT

Stocks and bonds suffered modest losses despite the decline in oil prices.

Stocks in Europe dropped 0.3% in one day. US stock futures, however, rose between 0.3% and 0.6%. This was largely due to the strength of tech shares which had a positive impact on the market after the dire warnings earlier in the week by top AI executives regarding the dangers to humanity from unchecked AI.

Brent crude futures dropped as much as 2,8% to $101.92 following a report claiming that China had asked Teheran to rein in the Houthis, after their recent military offensive.

This, along with the hope that Gulf exporters will find alternate routes to ship their oil, has set crude futures on a course for a weekly drop of 2%. However, this strain is already showing up in the 'physical markets', where prices hover around $120.

After another week of brutal selling, the yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds soared to its highest level since 2007 after a massive sell-off. The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to its highest level since 2007 after another brutal selloff this week that took it beyond 5%.

In the past week, yields in Britain and the Eurozone also reached multi-year highs. However, by Friday they were just a little bit higher than the previous day.

(source: Reuters)