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The chip market is on a downward spiral as world stocks fall to a one-month low

The world stock market fell to its lowest level in a month on Tuesday as investors dumped chips across the globe on fears of Chinese competition and funding for the AI boom. A possible U.S. interest rate hike this week also dampened the mood. The Nasdaq Composite, which is a tech-heavy stock, fell 1.37% Tuesday, and chipmakers were also impacted. Micron MU.O dropped 11.7%, Nvidia NVDA.O dropped 1.7%, and Intel INTC.O lost 8.5%. Asian chipmakers were the main culprits of the sell-off on Tuesday. South Korea's KOSPI plunged more than 10%, reaching a three month low. It triggered a circuit breaker on its way down, and is now on track to record the largest monthly drop in history, surpassing the declines experienced during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997.

The index had more than tripled its value in the 12 months leading up to June. However, it has lost more than one-third of that value since then.

Shares of memory chipmakers SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics have fallen more than 12% in a market dominated by leverage. Their stratospheric rise has slowed down.

The MSCI All-Country?World Price Index fell by 0.76%, to its lowest level since June 26. Investors have been concerned about circular funding and stretched valuations in the AI sector after a strong rally in this year. After a report stating that China was manufacturing its own immersion deep ultraviolet lithography machines (DUV), the latest sell-off followed. Meanwhile, Chinese chipmaker CXMT made a strong debut on Monday. This fueled concerns over increased competition in memory chip industry.

You've seen companies pay for AI and hyperscalers not participate because they are worried about the cost or the level of leverage required. We're now seeing concerns about the profitability of semiconductors, especially in Asia," Dorian Carrell said, Schroders' head of multi-asset investment income.

The AI story is still evolving, but this kind of growth rate (profits) is rarely sustained. We believe that the market is healthy in questioning these issues.

Even though some positive earnings reports were released by companies such as Unilever and Mercedes-Benz helped European stocks to outperform, they still did not help the stock market.

The earnings this week of "Magnificent 7" members Microsoft.com, Amazon.com Meta, and Apple, which are also companies that spend the most on AI will be seen by many as a test for the market rally. This is especially true after Alphabet, Tesla, and other tech giants spooked the investors with their negative cash flow reports last week.

US RATE INCREASE, OIL SLIPS, EYED Brent crude?futures extended Monday's nearly 9 %?fall, falling 1.87% at $86.71 per barrel as a lull between hostilities and the U.S. followed Washington's sudden suspension of air attacks on Saturday. Donald Trump stated on Monday that the United States is having "good discussions" with Iran, and there's a good chance for a deal.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 2.87 basis points from 4.641% on Monday.

The markets have estimated that there is a 32% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by 25 basis points this Wednesday.

Oscar Munoz is the head of U.S. Economics at TD Securities. He wrote in a recent note that "Higher oil costs due to Middle East tensions increased inflation risk and strengthened the case for a rate increase. However, we believe more evidence is needed to gain majority support."

The euro gained 0.05% against the dollar to $1.1373. The Japanese yen fell 0.05%, to 163.83 dollars, barely above its four-decade-low. Markets are on edge, fearing that Japan will intervene in the currency pair, especially if it holds rates this week, and triggers another yen decline.

(source: Reuters)