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Why are parts of North America covered in smoke from wildfires in Canada?
In recent years, orange-hued skylines, smoke from wildfires and scorched forests have become commonplaces in North America as global warming has contributed to "massive forestfires". Many of these fires are located in northern Canada which is home to some the largest, intact forests on earth. Canada has more active wildfires now than in the previous two years. The area that has been burned this year is also greater than the 10-year average. Here are some facts regarding the recent smoke and wildfires. Why does Canada have so many wildfires? Canada is the second largest country in the world based on area. It has nearly one tenth the total forest land and 24% of all boreal forests. Many are not accessible by road, and many of them have no inhabitants. Forest fires are an important part of nature that helps to eliminate pests and unhealthy shrubbery. In recent years the size and intensity have increased. Climate change is causing temperatures to rise, resulting in drier forest. Fires spread more quickly in drier forests. Lightning or campfires can start fires in populated areas. Mike Flannigan is a professor at Thompson Rivers University, British Columbia. He is a wildland fire expert. He said that warmer temperatures have extended the wildfire season and more lightning has also caused fires. Climate scientist Andrew Dessler is a professor of atmosphere sciences at Texas A&M College of Arts and Sciences. He said that the Canadian fires are burning in forests that have been largely left unmanaged for the last 100 years. He also said that higher temperatures in Canada were causing larger, more intense fires. Climate change is the main reason why this has a major impact on the U.S. at the moment. "Nothing else has changed," said he. What happened this week? Smoke follows the wind as fires grow and forest areas are scorched. Toronto, New York and Washington were affected by the worst air quality in the world earlier this week due to fires burning in northern and Western Ontario and northern Minnesota. Detroit and Chicago had the worst air quality in the world by Friday. Can the fire be stopped? Although some fires cannot be avoided, the government tries to protect communities through the closing of forest areas, the use of non-flammable materials in high-risk places, and better preparation. What has Canada done so far? The federal government has increased funding to fight wildfires. This includes C$316.7 ($227 millions) over a five-year period for aerial firefighting capability and C$47.8 for Parks Canada's National Fire Management Program. Ontario spent C$271 millions on emergency firefighting, surpassing its budget of C$135millions in 2025-26. The budget for 2026-2027 is C$150 millions. WHAT MORE COULD WE DO? Experts and politicians started calling for a National Response Organization after Canada's largest wildfire season in terms of area burned, 2023. These calls increased after fires in the year 2024 destroyed a third of Jasper, a tourist town. The only Group of Seven nation without a federal agency dedicated to combating "wildfires" is Canada. The provinces are responsible for a large part of firefighting. The Canadian Senate released a report in June 2026 that included a call for the creation of a federal coordination office for wildfires, emergency response and funding for a modern fleet of firefighting aircraft. The report noted that wildfires have become a crisis, citing the area burned in the past few years. The federal Office of Emergency Management and Community Resilience announced that it was evaluating recommendations for wildfire response and possible creation of a Federal Emergency Management Agency. The 'leasing of ten new firefighting planes as an example of how they are addressing severe fires by bolstering the provincial and territorial firefighting capability. Canada has approximately 126,000 firefighters working for towns, cities and villages, with about 90% of them being volunteers. Ken McMullen is the president of the Canadian Association of Fire Chiefs. He said that only 3,000-5,000 firefighters in Canada are trained to fight wildland blazes. McMullen stated that a centralized approach could help coordinate, train, and move firefighters and equipment throughout the country when necessary. What are some other areas with wildfires? According to the National Interagency Fire Center, 2026 has been a year of fires that is above average in the United States. 3.7 million acres have burned from year-to date, compared with an average 10-year burn rate of 2.7 millions acres. Fires in?the?U.S. West is burning more intensely and consuming more land, after a record low winter snowpack caused drought conditions in more than 90% the region. According to NIFC, the United States has seen 40,000 wildfires this year. This is well above its 10-year average, which was around 31,000 at this time. A wildfire that burned an area as large as San Francisco in northeastern Spain forced thousands of people to flee. This summer, there have been nearly 20 reported wildfires in England and Wales. A historic forest near Paris has also burned and turned the skies black. (Reporting from Nivedita Balu, Toronto; Additional reporting provided by Andrew Hay; Editing done by Caroline Stauffer and Edmund Klamann).
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Boeing maintains its 20-year forecast of jet demand, despite the Iran War impact
Boeing's latest?market?projection, released on Saturday in England, just ahead of the Farnborough Airshow, maintained the strong forecast it made for global demand?for new commercial planes over the next 20 years. The U.S. aircraft manufacturer's forecast for 2025 was nearly identical. Boeing predicted that the industry would deliver 43,625 jetliners and cargo aircraft around the globe from 2026 to 2045. This includes 33,545 single aisle jets, 7,715 broadbody aircraft, and 930 factory built freighters. Airbus, Boeing's European competitor, cut its forecast by 1% this month to 42,060 new aircraft. The reason given was the Iran War and trade tensions. Boeing anticipates a growth in air passenger traffic of 2.3% for this year. This is less than half of the 5.3% growth rate last year. It anticipates growth of 6%-7% by 2027, and 5%-6.6% by 2028. Boeing Commercial Marketing Vice president Darren Hulst said that the passenger traffic worldwide will be at its current level by 2028. He said that the current slowdown was different from the demand shock of several years caused by the COVID-19 epidemic. Boeing predicts that passenger traffic will grow by 4% per year over the next 20-years, while cargo traffic is expected to increase by 3.7%. The jet fleet will expand by 3%, and the global economy is expected to grow 2.5%. The demand for new aircraft is growing faster than the planemakers' ability to deliver them. Hulst stated that passenger traffic had recovered to pre-pandemic level last year, but new jet deliveries remained below 2018 output. The company expects a shortage of around 2,000 aircraft by 2026. Single-aisle shortages are unlikely to be resolved until the end of this decade, while widebody shortages will likely persist well into the early 30s. The outlook assumes that demand will be split roughly evenly between replacements and growth. Boeing projects that 21,475 of the deliveries will be older jets, and 22,150 to support fleet expansion. Global fleet is expected to grow from 28,000 aircraft by 2025 to 50,000 aircraft by 2045. New-generation aircraft will increase from 32% to 92%. China will account for 21% of all deliveries. Eurasia is next at 20%. North America, South/Southeast Asia, and the Middle East/Africa are each at 19%. Latin America, Oceania/Northeast Asia, and Oceania/Northeast Asia, at 5%, follow. Boeing's outlook reflects a recovering market - but still constrained by the fragility of supply chains and manufacturing capacity. Boeing faces delays in certification for key programs, including the 737 MAX 7 & 10 and 777-9. Hulst stated that the long-term demand is supported by migration, trade, tourism and expansion of airline networks. He said, "The reasons why we travel or why goods are moved don't change." (Reporting from Seattle by Dan Catchpole; editing by David Gregorio).
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Clariant rejects Dow Europe’s $1.3 billion claim under the Competition Law
Clariant announced on Friday that it is rejecting the damages claim of 1.1 billion euros ($1.26 billion) filed by Dow 'Europe against four companies. The claim was made for an alleged violation of competition law in the ethylene buying market. In the past, Swiss specialty chemical manufacturers have received similar claims from OMV BASF and TotalEnergies. Dow announced in a letter to? that it filed a claim for "significant losses" sustained by its European operations, claiming the defendants' anticompetitive conduct lowered ethylene prices. The European Commission fined Clariant in 2020, Orbia of Mexico, and Celanese of the United States 260 million Euros for colluding with each other to keep ethylene prices low. Clariant's statement said that it "firmly rejects (Dow Europe’s) allegation" and will "adamantly defend their position in the proceeding." It added that the claim had been filed with a court in Dortmund, Germany. Clariant didn't name the other companies in its statement. Clariant added that "substantiated evidence" had been gathered that "the?conduct of parties?didn't produce a?any impact on the market."
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Pampa Energia invests $2.7 billion into Argentine urea factory
The Argentinean energy company Pampa 'Energia announced on Friday that it will invest $2.7billion to build a granulated urea facility in 'Bahia Blanca', a town located south of the province of Buenos Aires. The project is aimed at supplying fertilizer to Argentina - one of the largest exporters in the world of grains and agricultural products - as well as to Brazil, another major producer of farming goods. In a press release, Pampa Energia chairman Marcelo Mindlin stated that the plant would allow the country to have its own urea, making it more competitive and predictable. It will also enable the nation to export to other countries in the'region' and 'worldwide. Pampa says the plant will begin producing 2.1 millions metric tons urea per year by?the middle of 2029. The company stated that the project would be the'start of a brand new business line for 'Pampa Energia. It will also generate a source of foreign currency in Argentina with an estimated contribution of a little over $1 billion per year through exports and import substitution. Pampa said that it has already submitted its?project for Argentina's incentive -regime known as RIGI - which offers tax advantages and other benefits to companies. (Reporting by Eliana Raszewski;)
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Why are parts of North America covered in smoke from wildfires in Canada?
In recent years, orange-hued skylines, wildfire smoke, and scorched forests have become commonplaces in North America as global warming has 'contributed to massive forest fires. These fires are primarily in the north of Canada, which is home to some of?the world's largest intact forests. Canada has experienced more wildfires this year than in the previous two years. The area that has been burned is also higher than the average for the last 10 years. Check out these facts about recent wildfires and smoke. Why does Canada have so many wildfires? Canada, which is the second largest country in the world by area, contains nearly a 10th of all the forest land on the planet and 24% of its boreal forests. Many are not accessible by road or inhabited. Forest fires are an important part of nature that helps to eliminate pests and unhealthy shrubbery. In recent years the size and intensity have increased. Climate change is causing temperatures to rise, resulting in drier forest. Fires spread more quickly in drier forests. Lightning or campfires can start fires in more populated regions. Mike Flannigan is a professor at Thompson Rivers University in British Columbia who specializes in wildland fires. He noted that the area of land burned has nearly quadrupled across Canada since the 1970s. He said that warmer temperatures have extended the wildfire season, and more lightning has also caused fires. WHAT HAPPENED OVER THE LAST WEEK? Smoke follows the wind as?fires grow and more forest is burned. Toronto experienced the worst air quality in the world earlier this week due to fires from northern and western Ontario, as well as northern Minnesota. Then it spread to New York and Washington. Detroit and Chicago had the worst air quality by Friday. Can the fires be stopped? Although some fires cannot be avoided, the government is trying to protect their communities by closing forests to prevent fires caused by humans, using non-flammable materials in high-risk areas and being more prepared. What has Canada done so far? The federal government has increased funding to fight wildfires. This includes C$316.7 (or $227 million) over five years for aerial firefighting capability and C$47.8 for Parks Canada's?National Fire Management Program. Ontario spent C$271,000,000 on emergency firefighting during 2025-26. This was more than its budget of C$135,000,000. The budget for 2026-2027 is C$150 millions. WHAT MORE CAN BE DONE? Experts and politicians started calling for a National Response Organization after Canada's largest wildfire season in terms of area burned, 2023. These calls increased after fires in the year 2024 destroyed a third of Jasper, a tourist town. Canada is the lone Group of Seven nation without a federal agency dedicated to fighting wildfires. The provinces are responsible for a large part of firefighting. The Canadian Senate released a report in June 2026 that proposed funding for a "national fleet" of modern firefighting planes, as well as other measures. The report noted that wildfires have become a crisis, citing the area burned in the past few years. The federal Office of Emergency Management and Community Resilience announced that it is evaluating recommendations for wildfire response and possible creation of a federal agency to manage emergency situations. The leasing of 10 firefighting planes is one way it has boosted the capacity of provincial and territorial firefighting agencies to combat severe wildfires. Canada has approximately 126,000 firefighters, 90,000 of whom are volunteers, who work for towns, villages, and cities. Ken McMullen is the president of the Canadian Association of Fire Chiefs. He said that only 3,000-5,000 firefighters in Canada are trained to fight wildland fires. McMullen stated that a centralized approach could help with coordinating, training, and moving equipment and firefighters across the country if needed. What are some other areas with wildfires? According to the National Interagency Fire Center, the United States also has an above-average year for fires, with 3.7 millions acres burning year-to date in 2026, compared to a 10-year-average of 2.7million acres. According to the U.S. Drought monitor, fires are burning more intensely and consuming more land in the U.S. West after a record low winter snowpack caused drought conditions to spread to 90% of the region. According to NIFC, the United States had?40,000 wildfires in its first half of this year. This is well above the 10-year average, which was around 31,000 at this time. A wildfire that burned an area as large as San Francisco in northeastern Spain forced thousands of people to flee. This summer, there have been nearly 20 reported wildfires in England and Wales. A historic forest near Paris has also burned and turned the skies black. (Reporting from Nivedita Balu, Toronto; additional reporting by Andrew Hay. Editing by Caroline Stauffer, Deepa Babington and Caroline Stauffer)
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World Cup Final hardly affected by wildfire smoke
AccuWeather, the?forecaster, said that Canadian wildfire smoke will have only a minimal impact on Sunday's World Cup final at New Jersey Stadium in New York. More than 80,000 people are expected to attend this event, which will see Argentina take on Spain for soccer’s most coveted prize. This week, heavy?smoke from wildfires burning in Canada blanketed a large part of the U.S. and prompted air quality warnings. AccuWeather stated that air quality in East Rutherford (New Jersey) may not be at "good levels" on Sunday, but fans and players should expect an improvement from the "poor or unhealthy" conditions predicted for Saturday. It may not be as good as Saturday, but at least it won't be as bad. The weather will be a little less humid than Saturday. This will lead to?more comfortable? conditions, said Adam Douty. New York New Jersey was awash in smoke and hazy skies this week as local authorities asked residents to limit strenuous outdoor activities. The rain forecast for Saturday is expected to help disperse the smoke. (Reporting and editing by Christian Radnedge in New York)
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Why is the smoke from wildfires in Canada blanketing North America?
In recent years, orange-hued skylines, smoke from wildfires and scorched forests have become commonplace in North America as global warming has contributed to "massive" forest fires. The majority of these fires are located in the north of Canada, home to some if the largest and most intact forests on earth. Canada is experiencing more wildfires than in the past two years. A larger area has burned this year as compared to the 10-year average. Here are some facts regarding the recent smoke and wildfires. Why does Canada have so many wildfires? Canada, which is the second largest country in the world, contains nearly a 10th of all the forest land on the planet and 24% of its boreal forests. Most of these forests are not accessible by road, and many are uninhabited. Forest fires are an important part of nature that helps to eliminate pests and unhealthy shrubbery. In recent years, however, both the size and intensity have increased. Climate change and rising temperatures cause drier forest conditions. Fires spread more quickly in drier forests. Lightning or campfires can start fires in more densely populated areas. Mike Flannigan is a professor at Thompson Rivers University, British Columbia. He has studied wildland fires. Since the 1970s, the area of land burned in Canada almost quadrupled. He said that warmer temperatures have extended the wildfire season and increased lightning has also caused fires. What happened this week? Smoke follows the wind as fires grow and forest areas are scorched. The world's poorest air quality was brought to Toronto by fires in northern Ontario, western Ontario and northern Minnesota earlier this week. It then spread to New York City and Washington. Detroit and Chicago had the worst air quality by Friday. Can the fires be stopped? Some fires cannot be avoided, but governments are working to protect their communities by closing forests to prevent fires caused by humans, using non-flammable materials in high-risk areas and being more prepared. What has Canada done so far? The federal government has increased funding to fight wildfires. This includes C$316.7 millions ($227million) for aerial firefighting capability over five years, and C$47.8 for Parks Canada National Fire Management Program. Ontario spent C$271 millions on emergency firefighting during 2025-26. This was more than its budget of C$135million. The budget for 2026-2027 is C$150 millions. WHAT ELSE COULD BE DONE MORE? Experts and politicians started calling for a National Response Organization after Canada's largest wildfire season in 2023 by area burned. These calls increased after fires in the year 2024 destroyed a third of Jasper, a tourist town. Canada is the only Group of Seven nation without a federal agency dedicated to fighting wildfires. The provinces are responsible for a large part of firefighting. The Canadian Senate released a report in?June of 2026 that included a call for the creation of a federal coordination office for wildfires, emergency response, and funding for a modern fleet firefighting aircraft. The report noted that wildfires have become a crisis, citing the area burned in the past few years. The federal government didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. Canada has approximately 126,000 firefighters working for towns, cities and villages. About 90,000 of these are volunteers. Ken McMullen is the president of the Canadian Association of Fire Chiefs. He said that only 3,000 to 5,000 fire fighters are trained in Canada to fight wildland blazes. McMullen stated that a centralized approach could help coordinate, train and move firefighters and equipment throughout the country when needed. What are some other areas with wildfires? According to the National Interagency Fire Center, 2026 has been a fire-year above average in the United States, with more than 3.7 million acres burning year-to date, compared to 2.7 million acres on average over ten years. According to the U.S. Drought monitor, fires are burning more intensely and consuming more land in the U.S. West after a record low winter snowpack triggered drought conditions across 90% of the region. According to NIFC, the United States has seen 40,000 wildfires this year. This is well over its 10-year average, which was around 31,000 at this time. A wildfire that burned an area as large as San Francisco in northeastern Spain forced thousands of people to flee. This summer, there have been nearly 20 reported wildfires in England and Wales. A historic forest near Paris has also burned and turned the skies black. (Reporting from Nivedita Balu, Toronto; additional reporting by Andrew Hay. Editing by Caroline Stauffer, Deepa Babington and Caroline Stauffer)
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Why is the smoke from wildfires in Canada blanketing North America?
In recent years, orange-hued skylines, smoke from wildfires and scorched forests have become commonplace in North America as global warming has contributed to "massive" forest fires. The majority of these fires are located in the north of Canada, home to some if the largest and most intact forests on earth. Canada is experiencing more wildfires than in the past two years. A larger area has burned this year as compared to the 10-year average. Here are some facts regarding the recent smoke and wildfires. Why does Canada have so many wildfires? Canada is the second largest country in the world. It has a total of nearly 10% of the forest area of the planet and 24% of its boreal forests. Most of these forests are not accessible by road, and many are uninhabited. Forest fires are an important part of nature that helps to eliminate pests and unhealthy shrubbery. In recent years, however, both the size and intensity have increased. Climate change and rising temperatures cause drier forest conditions. Fires spread more quickly in drier forests. Lightning or campfires often start fires in more densely populated areas. Mike Flannigan is a professor at Thompson Rivers University, British Columbia. He noted that the area of land burned in Canada almost quadrupled since 1970. He said that warmer temperatures have extended the wildfire season and increased lightning has also caused fires. WHAT HAPPENED OVER THE LAST WEEK? Smoke follows the wind as fires grow and forest areas are scorched. The world's poorest air quality was brought to Toronto by fires in northern Ontario, western Ontario and northern Minnesota earlier this week. It then spread to New York City and Washington. Detroit and Chicago had the worst air quality by Friday. CAN THE FIRE BE STOPPED? While certain fires cannot be avoided, governments are working to protect their communities by preventing fires caused by humans, utilizing non-flammable materials in high-risk areas, and being more prepared. What has Canada done so far? The federal government has increased funding to fight wildfires. This includes C$316.7 millions ($227million) for aerial firefighting capability over five years, and C$47.8 for Parks Canada National Fire Management Program. Ontario spent C$271 millions on emergency firefighting during 2025-26. This was more than its budget of C$135million. The government has set aside C$150 millions for 2026-2027. WHAT MORE COULD be DONE? Experts and politicians started calling for a National Response Organization after Canada's largest wildfire season in 2023 by area burned. These calls increased after the fires of 2024 destroyed a third of Jasper, a tourist town. Canada is the only Group of Seven nation without a federal agency dedicated to fighting wildfires. The provinces are responsible for a large part of firefighting. The Canadian Senate released a report in?June of 2026 that proposed a federal coordination office for wildfires, emergency response, and funding for a modern fleet of firefighting planes, among other things. The report noted that wildfires have become a crisis, citing the area burned in the past few years. The federal government didn't immediately respond to our request for a comment. Canada has approximately 126,000 firefighters working for towns, cities and villages. About 90,000 of these are volunteers. Ken McMullen is the president of the Canadian Association of Fire Chiefs. He said that only 3,000 to 5,000 fire fighters are trained in Canada to fight wildland blazes. McMullen stated that a centralized approach could help coordinate, train, and move firefighters and equipment throughout the country when needed. What are some other areas with wildfires? According to the National Interagency Fire Center, 2026 has been a fire-year above average in the United States, with more than 3.7 million acres burning year-to date, compared to a 10-year-average of 2.7 millions acres. According to the U.S. Drought monitor, fires are burning more intensely and consuming more land in the U.S. West after a record low winter snowpack triggered drought conditions across 90% of the region. According to NIFC, the United States has seen 40,000 wildfires this year. This is well above its 10-year average, which was around 31,000 at this time. A wildfire that burned an area as large as San Francisco in northeastern Spain forced thousands of people to flee. This summer, there have been nearly 20 reported wildfires in England and Wales. A historic forest near Paris has also burned and turned the skies black. (Reporting from Nivedita Balu, Toronto; additional reporting by Andrew Hay. Editing by Caroline Stauffer, Deepa Babington and Caroline Stauffer)
Trump's tariffs on Russia’s oil buyers brings economic and political risks
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has used tariffs to achieve a variety of foreign policy goals.
Trump's favorite trade tool has been put to a new, if risky, use. He gave Russia a deadline of Friday to reach a peace agreement in Ukraine, or else its oil customers would face secondary tariffs.
Wednesday, the administration took an important step in punishing Moscow's clients by imposing a 25% additional tariff on goods imported from India due to its imports Russian oil. This is the first financial sanction aimed at Russia during Trump's second tenure.
A White House official confirmed on Wednesday that secondary measures Trump had threatened against countries purchasing petroleum would be expected on Friday.
The latest of Trump's threats to impose tariffs on non-trade matters include attempting to stop the fentanyl delivery from Mexico and Canada and penalizing Brazil for what he called a "witchhunt" against the former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Secondary tariffs may hurt the Russian economy by cutting off a major source of funding to President Vladimir Putin's war efforts, but they are also costly for Trump.
The oil price will rise and cause him political difficulties before the midterm elections in the U.S. next year. Tariffs could also hinder the administration's attempts to reach trade agreements with China and India.
Putin, for his part has indicated that Russia is ready to weather any economic hardships imposed by the U.S.
According to Eugene Rumer a former U.S. Intelligence Analyst for Russia, who is now the Director of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Russia and Eurasia Program, there are "nearly zero chances" that Putin will agree to an agreement to ceasefire because Trump has threatened tariffs and sanctions against Russia.
Theoretically, if you stopped Indian and Chinese oil purchases that would be a heavy blow to Russian economy and war effort. "But that's not going to happen," said he, adding that China has signaled that they will continue buying Russia's crude oil.
The White House didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment.
The Russian Embassy in Washington has not responded immediately.
NEW COSTS FOR RUSSIA
Russia would be hurt by secondary tariffs, as it is the second largest oil exporter in the world. Since late 2022, the West has imposed a price limit on Russia's oil exports to reduce its ability to finance wars. This cap has increased costs for Russia, as it forced the country to redirect oil exports to India and China. These countries were able to buy huge quantities of oil at reduced prices. The cap kept oil flowing on global markets.
The White House has said that Putin and Trump may meet as early as next week. This follows a Wednesday meeting between U.S. ambassador Steve Witkoff with the Russian leader.
Some analysts doubt that Moscow will stop the war.
Brett Bruen is the former adviser on foreign policy for Barack Obama, now director of Global Situation Room. He warned that Putin had found ways to evade economic sanctions and sanctions. Even if sanctions and tariffs reduce Russia's revenue, Putin does not feel much pressure at home.
Bruen stated that secondary tariffs could cause economic pain. "But it is still unclear whether this will actually change Putin's behavior."
Tariffs could create problems for Trump's administration, as it seeks to pursue sweeping trade agreements with India and China.
Kimberly Donovan is a former U.S. Treasury Official who said that the tariffs may hamper U.S. trade and bilateral relations with India and China.
Donovan is now the director of the Economic Statecraft Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center.
China has shown its leverage by cutting off the U.S.'s mineral exports. New tariffs could upset the delicate balance that was negotiated in May to restart these vital flows for a number of U.S. Industries. India has leverage on generic pharmaceuticals and precursor chemicals exported to the U.S.
Both countries claim that the purchase of oil is a matter for their sovereigns and that they adhere to the old rules. This includes the price cap placed on Russian crude.
RUSSIAN ROULETTE
Secondary tariffs will increase the price of imported products into the United States from Russia's clients, which could encourage them to purchase their oil somewhere else. By squeezing the shipments, Trump could face political problems due to a spike in fuel prices and inflation worldwide.
Fears of disruptions by Russia in the month following Moscow's invasion of February 2022 pushed crude oil prices near $130 per barrel. This was not far off their previous high of $147. Analysts said that if India stopped buying 1.7 millions barrels of Russian crude per day, which is about 2% global supply, the world price would rise from $66, as it currently does.
Analysts at JP Morgan said that it would be "impossible", this month, to sanction Russian crude oil without causing a price spike. Brent oil could reach $80 or more if there is a perceived disruption in Russian oil shipments. They said that despite Trump's claims that U.S. producers will step in, the country would not be able to ramp up quickly.
Russia could respond by closing the CPC Pipeline, which would create a global shortage.
Western oil companies Exxon, Chevron, Shell, ENI, and TotalEnergies can ship up to one million barrels a day through CPC. The CPC has a total capacity of approximately 1.7 million bpd.
Cullen Hendrix is a senior fellow at Peterson Institute for International Economics. He said that energy shocks were never welcomed, particularly in the context of a weakening job market and a softening house price. The key question is if Trump can make any economic pain seem necessary in order to get Russia to negotiate.
Hendrix said, "Of his tariff gambits this one could resonate the best with voters in principle, at least," It's also a move with massive downside risk." Timothy Gardner, Don Durfee, Diane Craft, Don Durfee, Matt Spetalnick and Patricia Zengerle reported from Washington, and Seher Dareen and Patricia Zengerle were in London.
(source: Reuters)