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The IEA predicts that global coal demand will stagnate through 2026.

The IEA predicts that global coal demand will stagnate through 2026.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that global coal demand is expected to plateau over the next two-years after reaching a record in 2024.

The IEA data revealed that coal demand is forecast to increase by 0.2% globally in 2025, after a decline of less than 1% during the first half. This will be followed by a slight drop in 2026, which would bring the demand down just below the levels in 2024.

The Chinese demand for electricity is expected to drop by less than 1% between 2025 and 2050 due to a decline in the growth of electricity demand. The U.S. is expected to see a 7% increase in demand as coal replaces natural gas, which is more expensive.

The report stated that India's coal consumption declined in the first half 2025 as a result of a growth in renewable energy sources and a slower rate of electricity demand, whereas EU demand increased due to lower wind and hydro production and higher gas prices.

The IEA stated that the trend is expected to reverse by 2026. China's demand for coal will recover and India's demand will increase by 2.5%. Demand in the U.S. should return to levels of 2024.

The coal production is expected to reach a record high in 2025 mainly because of China and India. However, it will fall in 2026 due to lower prices and inventories.

The report stated that the global coal trade will contract in 2025, for the first drop since 2020. It is also expected to decline further in 2026. This would be the first two-year drop in this century.

The IEA reported that oversupply had pushed prices up to levels seen in early 2021. Indonesian production is expected to see the biggest volume drop, while Russian exporters will face the most difficult market conditions. Reporting by Forrest Cressin, Editing by Mark Potter

(source: Reuters)