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European stocks and US dollar fall as traders focus on Ukraine talks

European stocks and US dollar fall as traders focus on Ukraine talks

The U.S. Dollar and European shares both shook on Monday, ahead of a week that is expected to be eventful for U.S. rate policy. Oil prices also remained subdued because the risks associated with Russian supply seemed to have diminished.

Early trading saw little change in the pan-European STOXX 600 Index after it reached its highest level since last March on Friday. The MSCI All Country World Index was hovering near the record high set last week.

In the early Asian session, an optimistic mood led to record highs for indices in Japan, Taiwan, and China. A gauge of Chinese stocks also reached its highest level since a decade.

Investors are preparing for U.S. president Donald Trump to meet with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and European leaders on Monday evening to discuss next steps in ending the war in Ukraine. This follows Trump's Friday summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Trump, despite the fact that there was no agreement at the summit, appeared to be more in line with Moscow regarding a peace deal for Ukraine rather than a first ceasefire.

The main economic event this week is the Jackson Hole Symposium, which will take place between August 21 and 23, at the Kansas City Federal Reserve. Chair Jerome Powell will speak about the economy outlook and central bank policy.

The markets are pricing in a chance of around 85% for a rate cut by a quarter point at the Fed meeting on September 17. They also price in a further easing before December.

Mark Matthews is the head of Asia research at Bank Julius Baer, Singapore. He said that he saw three rate cuts this year in the U.S., a slower GDP but no recession. The combination of these two factors should allow the rally continue.

Stock markets have been buoyed by the prospect of lower borrowing rates globally. Japan's Nikkei has reached a new record high. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan gained 0.3% after reaching a record high of four years last week.

Commerzbank's 3.7% drop dragged down the DAX in Europe. The FTSE in Britain was flat.

Solid Earnings

S&P futures slipped 0.1%, while Nasdaq was flat. Both were at all-time highs.

The valuations have been supported by a strong earnings season, as S&P 500 EPS grew 11 % on the year. 58% of companies also raised their guidance for the full-year.

Goldman Sachs analysts said that the results of mega-cap technology companies have been exceptional. While Nvidia is yet to release its earnings, Magnificent Seven grew their EPS in 2Q by 26% compared to the same period last year, which was a 12% improvement over expectations going into earnings season.

Home Depot, Target Lowe's, Walmart and Lowe's all report this week.

The possibility of Fed easing keeps short-term Treasury rates down, while the longer end of the curve is under pressure from the threat of stagflation, and huge budget deficits. This has led to the steepest yield curvature since 2021.

The prospect of higher borrowing for increased defence spending has also pushed German long-term rates to record highs.

The dollar has been impacted by bets that the Fed will ease further. It dropped 0.4% last week against a basket currency to end at 97.858.

The dollar remained flat against the yen, at 147.24. Meanwhile, the euro stayed at $1.17 despite adding 0.5% to its value last week.

The dollar is doing better than its New Zealand counterpart, as it's widely expected that the central bank will cut rates on Wednesday to 3.0%.

Gold, the most important commodity, rose 0.5%, to $3,343 per ounce, after falling 1.9% in the previous week.

The oil prices fell as Trump backed down from his threats to impose more restrictions on Russian exports. However, White House Trade Advisor Peter Navarro stated that India's purchases were funding Russia's conflict in Ukraine.

Brent was unchanged at $65.81 per barrel while U.S. crude remained steady at $62.81 a barrel.

(source: Reuters)