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Jackson Hole: US and European shares are little changed in advance of Ukraine talks

Jackson Hole: US and European shares are little changed in advance of Ukraine talks

Wall Street and European stocks were flat or marginally lower Monday, ahead of an eventful week in U.S. rate policy. Meanwhile, attention was focused on Washington where Volodymyr Zelenskiy from Ukraine and European leaders would meet Donald Trump.

S&P 500 was slightly down in midday trading but remained within striking range of its Friday all-time high.

The MSCI All Country World Index was 0.1% lower but still not far off its record high reached on Friday.

In the Asian session earlier, indexes from Japan, Taiwan, and China reached record highs, with a Chinese stock gauge reaching its highest level for a decade.

After Trump's Friday summit with Russian president Vladimir Putin, investors were anticipating Trump's meeting later that day with Zelenskiy and European leader to discuss the next step to end the conflict in Ukraine.

In a research report, Geoff Yu, EMEA's macro strategist, wrote that "Expectations are low for a breakthrough, but aside from assets and energy with direct exposure to this region, the marginal effect on sentiment has faded."

Trump, despite the fact that there was no agreement at the Alaska summit, appeared to be more in line with Moscow when it came to seeking a peace deal for Ukraine rather than a first ceasefire.

The Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium, which takes place from August 21 to 23, is another key event for this week. Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking on the economy and the central banks policy framework.

The markets are pricing in a further rate cut by December, based on an 85% probability of a quarter point cut at the Fed meeting scheduled for September 17.

In a research note, Andrew Hollenhorst wrote that Fed Chair Jerome Powell would likely indicate Friday that the risks to inflation and employment are becoming more equalized, which could imply lowering rates towards neutral.

"But he won't commit to a reduction next month until he receives the August data on jobs and inflation."

Stock markets have been buoyed by the prospect of lower borrowing rates globally. Japan's Nikkei has reached a new record high. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan gained 0.1% after reaching a record high of four years last week.

In Europe, Germany DAX slipped 0.3%. The FTSE in Britain was up 0.1%.

Stocks are rallying due to a strong earnings season. The S&P 500's EPS increased 11% over the past year, and 58% of companies have raised their guidance for the full-year.

Goldman Sachs analysts said that the results of mega-cap technology companies have been exceptional. While Nvidia is yet to release its earnings, Magnificent Seven grew their EPS in 2Q by 26%, year/year, which was a 12% improvement over the consensus expectations going into earnings season.

Home Depot, Target Lowe's, Walmart and Lowe's all reported this week.

A FED POLICY that is a concern

The yield curve on bond markets has widened. The difference between the two-year and the 10-year Treasury yields reached 57,8 basis points. This is the biggest gap since mid-July.

The rates on the back end of the curve increased much faster than the ones on the front, indicating higher inflation expectations.

The prospect of higher borrowing for increased defence spending has also pushed German and French long term yields to the highest levels since 2011.

The dollar has been impacted by bets that the Fed will ease further. It dropped 0.3% last week against a basket currency and was last at 98.102.

The dollar increased 0.4% against the yen, to 147.75. Meanwhile, the euro dropped 0.3% to $1.1667.

Gold was unchanged at $3,335 per ounce, after losing 1.9% the previous week.

Prices of oil rose before the meeting between Trump Zelenskiy. Brent crude was up 0.3% to $66.09 per barrel. U.S. crude rose 0.5% to $63.09 a barrel.

(source: Reuters)