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US House supports Russia sanctions and Ukraine aid in latest blow against Trump
The U.S. House of Representatives approved legislation Thursday that would provide 'aid to Ukraine' and impose new Russian sanctions. This is the latest indication that Republicans are willing defy their party leaders and push back against President Donald Trump. The House passed the Ukraine Support Act 226-195. It had been pending for months. A few Republicans signed a petition with Democrats to force a vote. On Thursday, Democrats and 18 Republicans joined forces with one independent who usually votes along side them to pass the bill. This was the latest indication of a rift in the nearly unanimous support that Trump's supporters had for his policies. The passage came one day after a smaller number of House Republicans voted with Democrats to pass a Resolution that would force the withdrawal from hostilities against Iran, unless Congress declared war or ordered the use of force. The future of the Ukraine Support Act remains uncertain. It must be passed by the Senate. The Republican leaders of the Senate have refused to allow votes on Russia sanctions bills that enjoy broad bipartisan support. They said they would wait until Trump's direction. Trump would probably veto the bill if it passed the Senate. Many members of Congress, from both parties, supported Ukraine during the first few years following the full-scale Russian invasion of?February 2022. However, since Trump returned to office in January 2025 some of his closest Republican allies have become more ambivalent towards Kyiv. Since the beginning of his second term, the president also keeps decisions about sanctions at White House and not in Congress. The U.S. has dramatically slowed down its aid to Kyiv, even though Russia and Ukraine are pounding each other with artillery and missiles. The peace talks have stalled after Ukraine rejected the Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demands that it give up territory it has successfully protected since 2022. The Ukraine Support Act authorizes up to $8 billion of direct loans and more than $1 billion for Kyiv. The EU also imposes strict sanctions and export controls against Russia, including financial institutions, oil, mining, and Russian officials. (Reporting and editing by Nia William and Ross Colvin; Reporting by Patricia Zengerle)
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Oil prices remain unchanged despite uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace agreement
The oil prices were little changed Friday, after a sharp drop in the previous session. Brent crude futures dropped 21 cents or 0.22% to $95.24 per barrel at 0003 GMT, after falling 2.84% the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $92.94 per barrel, down by 10 cents or 0.11% after a loss of 3.1% on Thursday. The two contracts are expected to record their first weekly gains in three weeks. WTI is up a whopping 6% after fighting flared in the Middle East, as U.S. - Iran war peace negotiations dragged on, while traffic in 'the Strait of Hormuz', where a quarter of the world’s oil passes through, remained limited. Analysts are concerned about a?falling global oil inventory that could lead to a price spike during the third quarter. Hezbollah's leader Naim Qassem, rejected on Thursday an agreement brokered by the United States between Israel and Lebanon to stop the fighting. Iran has demanded a ceasefire to be implemented in Lebanon as a precondition for any deal between Washington and Tehran. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Thursday that he thought progress was being made in Israel-Lebanon and that Lebanon deserved peace. In a recent note, IG analyst Tony Sycamore stated that "any optimism is heavily clouded by a tangled net of headlines and anti-headlines." Technically, as long (WTI crude oil) remains above the trendline support of the low $80s the risks are skewed?towards the upside." Secretary General Haitham al Ghais stated on Thursday that OPEC will stick to its forecast of 1.2 million barrels of oil per day growth for this year despite the conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the 'Strait of Hormuz. According to shipping data the U.S. blockade has largely been responsible for this decline, but the weak demand from China also contributed to lower prices. (Reporting and editing by SonaliPaul; Florence Tan)
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NHK reports that Japan plans to upgrade its nuclear power plants to increase the supply of electricity.
NHK, the public broadcaster, reported that Japan aims to ensure a stable power supply by rebuilding between two and five nuclear reactors. The proposal, which will be presented by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry during a meeting about nuclear policy, reflects an increased reliance on atomic power to help "meet increasing energy demand and reduce expensive fuel imports." After the Fukushima disaster in 2011, Japan closed its?54 nuclear reactors due to public concern about safety standards. 15 of the 33 units which are still operational have been restarted. Tokyo revised its energy policy last year to maximize the use of nuclear energy. Many reactors are nearing or have exceeded their 60-year lifespan, which raises concerns about the future of nuclear power, even if idled plants are restarted. NHK reported that the government is aiming to improve predictability by setting concrete replacement goals for utilities. Data centres and AI are expected to drive a sharp rise in demand for electricity. According to the current energy plan, Japan is aiming to increase the share of nuclear power in its electricity mix from 9.4% to 20% by fiscal 2020. NHK reported that the?draft policies will be discussed this Friday, before being adopted at a meeting of ministers later in the summer. (Reporting and editing by Sonali Paul; Chang-Ran Kim)
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Russia and Uzbekistan begin construction of nuclear power plants
The Kremlin announced that Russia and Uzbekistan began building a nuclear power plant in Uzbekistan. It is the first one of its kind in post-Soviet Central Asia. This will help meet the growing demand for energy in the region. The Kremlin announced late Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin, Uzbek president Shavkat Miziyoyev and other officials had met in St Petersburg to discuss the annual economic forum of Putin. The project is situated in Uzbekistan’s Jizzakh Region (central-eastern region), which borders Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. The design of the plant combines two types?nuclear?reactors: two large units that can produce 1,000 megawatts per unit and two smaller?modular?reactors, each generating about 55 megawatts. Putin stated that the Russian nuclear state corporation Rosatom is building the nuclear power plant, which will meet around 15% of Uzbekistan’s electricity demand. The project includes small modular reactors and Russian technology. Putin said to Mirziyoyev, "The fact that Russia is working with Uzbekistan on a high-tech project of this magnitude shows the strong friendship and alliance we have between our countries. It also demonstrates how the Russian-Uzbek partnership has developed successfully and dynamically." Last month, Russia signed an agreement to build the country's first nuclear power station at a cost estimated at $16.5 billion. The loan was partially funded by Moscow. Moscow sees Central Asia as a region?rich in resources? and?critical minerals?, and its traditional sphere of interests, at a moment when China and the United States also expand their influence.
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McGeever: Whisper it, but there's a chance that the US job market has turned a corner.
After the Trump administration's immigration crackdown, there has been a long-standing "low hire/low fire" mentality in the U.S. job market. This is due to a weak labor demand that is offset by dwindling labor supply. This delicate balance could be shifting in the right direction. There is no evidence of a "jobpocalypse", driven by AI, yet. This 'puts the spotlight on the non-farm payrolls May report due on friday, which is expected to show an increase of net 85,000 jobs with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%. This would be an excellent result compared to where the labor markets were at the end last year. In the first four month of this year, monthly job gains averaged around 76,000. This is not a record-breaking number, but it's a significant improvement over the average for last year of less than 10,000. It is also well above the rate needed to keep the unemployment rate down. According to a Federal Reserve document in April, this so-called "breakeven rate" has dropped so dramatically that economists believe it's close to zero. Even if the economy was growing at its potential, payrolls could drop by up to 100,000 in one or two months of this year. In this scenario, 85,000 is a good number. The current average for the year to date and the forecasted 85,000 for May are also impressive. Reasons to be cheerful Recent indicators are also encouraging. This week, the so-called "JOLTS", or Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data showed that the number of job openings in April was the highest for two years. The rate of growth was also the fastest in six years. The caveat is that most of these positions were within one industry. Bank of America's economists say that it was the first instance since June last year when the number of vacancies exceeded the unemployed. ADP's private sector payrolls showed an increase of 122,000 jobs in January, the highest growth since last year. ADP's numbers do not include the government sector, and are therefore stronger than national payroll figures since Donald Trump took over the White House. The signals are still positive, and they don't show any signs of AI-related job loss. The revised Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages for the fourth quarter of 2013 showed that employment was stronger than originally thought. JPMorgan estimates that employment growth could be revised upwards by at least 20,000 per month in the year to March. This is a significant change from recent downward revisions. BREATHING ROOM Tim Duy is the chief U.S. economic advisor at SGH Macro Advisors. He says that employment cyclical bottomed around summer or fall last year. He says that the labor market has "likely turned durable stronger." Duy points out the JOLTS report from last year as an indicator. More job openings usually lead to increased hiring, which in turn should encourage people to leave their jobs, thereby creating more positions. The labor market would be able to move again, and it would no longer be in its "unusual" and "uncomfortable", as the former Fed chair Jerome Powell described it in April. Kevin Warsh, Powell's successor, may find that the job market is in a good place right now. The employment growth is 'picking up', which reduces the pressure on interest rates to be lowered, but not fast enough to raise inflation concerns. The U.S. is experiencing an increase in inflation pressures, but not because of wages, but due to the energy crisis, tariffs, and other supply-related issues. The average?annual growth in earnings has been declining for the past three years. With inflation now approaching 4%, there is a negative real growth in earnings. In spite of all this, it is still possible that the labor market "low hire, high fire" could turn into "no hiring, 100% fire". There are many reasons to be concerned, including the global energy crisis that is still in progress, the fear of an AI bubble, and the unknowable impact of new technology on the job market. Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a global outplacement firm, released figures on Thursday that showed the United States had announced 97,000 job reductions in May, which is the highest number for a month since 2020. There are reasons to be hopeful. Will Friday's report on employment be another? You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Wall Street closes mixed with European stocks, oil and Broadcom dragging tech.
The global stock market edged a little higher in Thursday's volatile trading. European gains were followed by mixed sessions on Wall Street, as investors weighed the impact of a slowdown in AI momentum. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped, due to a "ceasefire" between Israel and Lebanon. The U.S. benchmark S&P 500 recovered from early losses and closed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also hit a new record high. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq dipped lower as technology stocks drove the losses, while healthcare and financial shares led the gains. The Dow gained 1.73%. The S&P 500 gained 0.41%. And the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.09%. Broadcom shares fell more than 12% and dragged semiconductor stocks lower after the chipmaker disappointed investors who bet on a surge in demand for its AI custom chips. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 2.2%. The European stock exchanges increased by?0.52%. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 0.09%. James St. Aubin is chief investment officer of Ocean Park Asset Management. He said, "We noticed a small weakness in the chips stocks after the disappointing news that came out from Broadcom yesterday." "Today's tech action is emblematic of the fragility of sentiment for stocks that have experienced massive gains over a short time period." CRUDE OIL DIPS Donald Trump's efforts to stop fighting in Lebanon have been undermined after the pro-Iran Hezbollah rejected the new ceasefire, and Israel announced that it would not remove troops from Lebanon. On Wednesday, the Republican-led U.S. House of Representatives approved a resolution to prevent Trump from continuing his conflict with Iran. It is only symbolic as the measure must still be approved by the Senate. A two-thirds vote in both chambers would also be required to overturn a veto that was almost certain. "Those headlines probably are net positive in the geopolitical front and the market embraces that for now. We've seen volatility in geopolitical headlines both ways and I'd say that at the margins it's positive. Aubin said. Brent crude fell nearly 3%, settling at $95.03 per barrel. YEN HOVES AROUND 160 Investors were on the lookout for any possible intervention by the government as the Japanese yen hovered around the 160 mark. Minoru Kihara, the Chief Cabinet Secretary in Tokyo, said he expected the central bank to coordinate its moves with the government following BOJ Governor Kazuo?Ueda's fresh hints of an interest rate hike this month. The Japanese yen rose 0.02% to 160.02 dollars per greenback. The euro rose 0.12% to $1.1609. The dollar fell 0.3% against the Swiss Franc to 0.789. The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket?currencies, including the yen, and euro, was unchanged at 99.46. The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds were all lower. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 1.4 basis points to 4,477%. Spot gold increased 1.03% to $4477.51 per ounce. Bitcoin dropped 2.53% to $63,265.22.
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Russian-run Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant says Ukraine launched drone attacks
The Russian-installed managers at Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant accused?Ukraine of using more than 20 drones on Thursday to attack a nearby thermoelectric plant that was vital for supplying the facility with external power. In the weeks after the February 2022 invasion, Russian forces seized the plant, Europe's biggest with six reactors. Since then, both sides have accused each other of taking military actions that compromise nuclear safety. The statement of management accused the?Ukraine military of staging "multiple attacks using heavy unmanned aircraft" in an area near the plant. It said that "more than 20 drone attacks have been recorded." The attack on the thermal plant was "critically important energy infrastructure" that ensures Ferrosplavnaya-1's operation. "Such attacks are a direct threat to reliability of power supply at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant and demonstrate once again disregard for principles of nuclear safety." Ukraine has not commented on the Russian allegations. The plant does not generate electricity, but it needs external power to prevent the nuclear fuel from overheating. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N. nuclear watchdog, is trying to negotiate a ceasefire to repair the damaged line. The IAEA said that it was informed of the incident by the Russian management at the station and that its permanent?based monitors saw light?smoke near the 'thermal plant. Rafael Grossi is the director general of IAEA. He called for an end to all attacks immediately to prevent a prolonged loss of power. (Reporting and editing by Deepa Babyington, Ron Popeski)
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US screwworm case alerts ranchers and boosts cattle prices
U.S. futures for feeder cattle surged Thursday as traders and ranchers were alerted to the possibility of more cases of a parasitic fly that eats warm blooded animals alive. U.S. agriculture secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed to reporters that there had been no more detections of New World Screwworm in the region around the case in La Pryor in Texas. The federal government confirmed this late on Wednesday. This case is a major blow for U.S. ranchers, who were bracing themselves for an outbreak of domestic screwworm as the pest has been moving northward through Mexico in the last year. Rollins told a press conference that "we've received a few (reports)." "Certainly, none looked like the one that we saw yesterday in La Pryor. But we are pursuing that." Rollins had said that the U.S. Department of Agriculture thought it could contain this case, which is the first to occur in Texas since 1966. Further infestations may further reduce the size of the US. The cattle herd is now the smallest it has been in 75 years. Screwworms are parasitic fly females that lay their eggs on open wounds or mucous membranes of warm-blooded animals. Once the eggs hatch into larvae, hundreds of screwworms will use their sharp teeth to burrow through flesh and eventually kill their host. "The New World screwworm sounds like a monster from a horror film, but it is real," said Nate Sheets. He was a Republican candidate for Texas Agriculture Commissioner. "It's an agricultural emergency." VOLATILE CASTE PRICES Chicago Mercantile Exchange traders initially reduced the price of futures for feeder cattle, fearing that the infestation would reduce consumer appetite for beef. Futures rallied by over 3%, quickly turning higher. Experts said that the detection could threaten Texas' livestock industry. The estimated economic losses of up to $1.8 Billion in Texas could occur if the screwworm spreads. Matt Wiegand is a commodity broker at FuturesOne. "Until we have a significant impact on consumer demand, the (cattle numbers) are still tight." U.S. beef supplies have been dwindling after ranchers were forced to reduce their herds by a drought that lasted for years. Meatpackers such as JBS Cargill, and Tyson Foods are struggling to find enough animals to process in their beef plants. The Meat Institute, representing processors, has urged USDA, after it announced that the agency had frozen animal movements in the area around the case, to allow "low-risk" livestock shipments for slaughter. The institute stated that such shipments may include animals being transported directly to slaughter from farms which are not infected. USDA has spent millions to try and keep the pest out, and has been blocking imports of Mexican cattle for over a year. Rollins stated that U.S. ports will continue to be closed for Mexican livestock until further notice. According to Lee Haines, associate research professor of biology at the University of Notre Dame, Indiana, the infestation indicates screwworm flies have already arrived 'in the U.S. Haines stated that "the burden falls on farmers who have to monitor animals spread across vast rangelands, which are often left unattended for days at time."
Mike Dolan: Guns and gold will win in 2025 but other "safety" trades will bomb.
In 2025, precious metals outperformed all other "safe haven" investment options. This is remarkable, especially in an year that was marked by turmoil, conflict and artificial intelligence bubble concerns. The market landscape for this year was shaped by a number of factors: a booming economy, politicians pushing for easy money, fading recession fears, an AI frenzy, and rising geopolitical tensions. Precious Metals outperformed almost everything else. Silver and platinum have more than doubled and gold has risen over 60%. This is its biggest jump since 1979's oil crisis. This performance was far superior to the roughly 20% gain in global equity indices. It is not yet clear whether gold, silver and platinum are caught in their own speculative bubble. Their strength is boosted by central bank demand, and their role in the wider tech build-out. The oil glut has sunk the wider commodity indexes this year. The price of crude oil has fallen by 20% in one year despite several tensions in the Middle East and fears that it will reach $100 per barrel. The best investment for those worried about a global conflict was the defense sector. U.S. aerospace stocks and defense stocks saw gains of 36% by 2025 while European counterparts rose 55%, and Germany and Europe re-armed.
LAGGING BONDS & DEFENSIVES This year, most traditional buffers and defensives played a role as dead weights in portfolios rather than a protection. Even bitcoin, which is referred to by some as "digital currency", ended the year with a loss. Bonds also had a bad year. Global "risk-free' government bond indices lost about 1% on a dollar basis, but returned just over 6% in total. Bloomberg Multiverse benchmarks, which include government, supranational, agency, and corporate debts, performed little better with price gains around 1% and total returns near 7%.
This is less than half of the increase in MSCI's index of all-country stocks, which has been on course for its best year ever since before the pandemic.
Going defensive in equities was not a winning strategy. The S&P 500 as a whole, boosted by the tech megacaps and AI theme, posted annual gains of 15 %, as the strong U.S. economy rebounded and interest rates fell in the second half 2025. S&P 500 stocks that are considered "growth" soared 20%. This is more than twice the gain of stocks classified as "value". The S&P 500 total return was 5 percentage points higher than the equally-weighted index. Utility, healthcare, and financial stocks all had good years with gains of more than 10%, but they still trailed behind the main index. Consumer staples, which are at the bottom of the list, only managed to gain 2%. The Dow Industrials blue chip index also lagged behind the S&P 500 as well as the Nasdaq.
SAFETY IS LAST The yen of Japan and the franc of Switzerland are often viewed as safe currencies. However, one of these also disappointed at year's end.
The yen initially rose in value, as did the Swiss franc. However, the Japanese currency lost all of its gains after the dollar fell. Investors were worried about new fiscal stimulus, and the arrival of Sanae Takaichi as Prime Minister caused some unrest on domestic bond markets.
The yen has fallen by about 4% in real terms against Japan's major trading partners.
The franc held onto its gains in the early years and was, along with silver and gold, one of few safe havens that made good by 2025.
If you thought the dollar was a safe haven during times of geopolitical tension, you were wrong. The 'DXY' dollar index dropped 12% in some of the most turbulent months and continued to be weak throughout multiple flashpoints across the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and even the Caribbean. Investors who are wary of disruptions could have bought volatility indexes that track options to benefit from the wild swings in stock and bond prices.
These parachutes didn't open in 2025 either. The S&P 500 VIX "fear" index of implied volatility for one month ended the year at a two-point deficit from where it began, despite big swings during the spring. MOVE, the Treasury equivalent index, has fallen by more than two thirds from its opening level, and is now less than half of its peak in April. Also, the main currency market vol' gauges have fallen. This year, it didn't pay to be overly cautious.
Double or quit in 2026?
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(source: Reuters)