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Dollar on course for second consecutive weekly increase; Euro, yen are at multi-month-lows
The U.S. Dollar was set to?gain a second weekly gain as investors moved?towards safer assets on Friday, as the Middle East war pushed investors towards safe-haven currencies. Energy-sensitive currencies like the euro and the yen fell to multi-month-lows. The economies of Japan and the euro zone, which heavily depend on crude imports would be severely affected by a sharp rise in oil prices. The economists are still wary about monetary tightening, as the dependence of these economies on fuel imports will likely lead to a rise in energy prices that could weigh on economic growth. The euro dropped to its lowest level since August and Japan warned it would take action to prevent a decline in the yen which had reached its lowest point in 20 months. Volkmar Baur is a Commerzbank forex strategist. He said that recent statements from the U.S. government about the potential for a quick end to the conflict made the market less responsive. U.S. president?Trump said in a virtual G7 meeting on Wednesday that Iran was "about to surrender", Axios on Friday reported, citing three G7 officials briefed about the contents of the conversation. The rising oil prices fuelled fears of a weaker economy and increased inflation. Brent futures dipped on Friday after an Indian tanker left the Strait of Hormuz. They had jumped in previous sessions. The U.S. issued a 30-day permit for countries to purchase Russian oil and petroleum products that were stranded on the sea. This was done to ease supply concerns. The International Energy Agency released a record 400,000,000 barrels of crude oil from strategic stockpiles on Wednesday. Mark Dowding said that there is only so much the IEA could do in the long term. Analysts have argued that the emergency measures taken to ease oil supply disruptions could be sending a negative message to markets, that there is little room for a quick de-escalation. Dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket currencies, has reached its highest level since November 28. This is partly due to the safe-haven appeal of the dollar, but it's also because the U.S. exports energy. The index rose by 0.40%, to 100.10, and was poised for a gain of 1.25% this week. EURO LOWEST IN 7 1/2 MONTHS The euro has fallen to its lowest level in August, $1.1438. It was last down by 0.40% on $1.1464. Investors are awaiting the European Central Bank's policy meeting on Thursday. Traders bet that the surging oil price could force the central bank to raise rates this year. Economists say that a prolonged closing of the Strait of Hormuz is needed to justify ECB monetary 'tightening' to combat inflation. Citi however argued that a few "insurance" increases could not be excluded, and the central bank may open the door for this next week. Citi's main argument is that the ECB should not act because of uncertainty. The greenback reached its highest level since January against the Swiss Franc, at 0.7894. It was last up by 0.18%, at 0.7875. YEN IN INTERVENTION Territory The yen fell to 159.69/$, its lowest level since July 2024. It was last unchanged at 159.37. Satsuki Katayama, Japan's Finance Minister, said that Japan was ready to take action against yen movements that affect people's daily lives. She also stated on Friday that she is in constant contact with U.S. authorities regarding?foreign currency issues. Analysts said that the recent hesitation by officials to promote the currency could push the yen down to 165 yen to the dollar. Chris Turner, head forex strategy at ING said that Japan's authorities were firmly in the intervention zone. The Australian dollar fell 0.40% against the greenback, to $0.7046. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast; Pooja Dasai, Louise Heavens and Lincoln Feast)
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US consumer spending and core PCE inflation firmed up in January
U.S. Consumer Spending increased slightly more than anticipated in January. This, along with the continued strength of underlying inflation as well as the ongoing war in the Middle East, bolstered the views of economists that the Federal Reserve will not be cutting interest rates for some time. The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Commerce Department reported that consumer spending, which is responsible for'more than two thirds of the economic activity', rose by a margin of 0.4% after rising by the same margin last December. Consumer spending was expected to increase by 0.3%, according to economists polled. This follows a 0.4% rise in December. BEA has yet to catch up with data releases due to delays caused by the government shutdown last year. The U.S. and Israeli war on Iran could have a negative impact on consumption, as it has increased oil prices. AAA data shows that retail gasoline prices have increased by more than 20% to $3.60 a gallon since the war began. The war also causes volatility on the stock market. Economists warn of wealth loss among households with higher incomes, which could force them to reduce their spending. The main drivers of the economy and consumer spending are high-income households. As tariffs on imported goods increased prices, lower-income households already cut back. Economists predicted that the economic drag would be felt during the second quarter. Kathy Bostjancic is the chief economist for Nationwide. She said that gasoline prices are expected to increase to $3.75 per gallons in the U.S. in the next few weeks. It could take the rest of the year before prices return to the pre-conflict levels near $3 per gallons. The spike in diesel fuel prices could lead to higher transportation costs, which will increase price pressures throughout the supply chain. The disruption in agricultural fertilizer shipments is likely to increase?food prices. Before the war, inflation was high. BEA reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index increased?0.3% after?rising by 0.4% in December. PCE inflation increased by 2.8% in the twelve months to January after increasing by 2.9% in December. PCE prices rose 0.4% excluding volatile food and energy after a similar gain in December. The so-called core PCE price index was expected to rise 0.4% in January. Core PCE inflation increased 3.1% on an annual basis after increasing?3.0% in the previous month. The U.S. Central bank tracks the PCE inflation measure for its 2% target. Next Wednesday, the Fed is expected keep its overnight benchmark interest rate between 3.50% and 3.75%. The window of opportunity for interest rate reductions is closing. Financial markets expect a single cut this year, in September. (Reporting and editing by Chizu Nomiyama; Lucia Mutikani)
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After US oil sanctions are eased, Britain urges allies to keep up pressure on Russia
A Downing Street spokesperson said on Friday that Britain and its partners should continue to exert collective pressure on Russia via sanctions. This follows a chorus of Europeans criticizing the United States for easing sanctions on Russian oil. "It is a U.S. decision, but we have a clear position." "All?partners must continue to put pressure on Russia, and its war chest," said the spokesperson for Keir Starmer. The United States has granted a 30-day waiver to countries that want to purchase sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products that are stranded on the sea. This is to help stabilize global energy markets, which have been roiled by war with Iran. The move was criticized by European allies, who argued that it could complicate Western efforts to deny Russia revenue for its war in Ukraine. The spokesperson stated that Western sanctions have deprived Russia of at least $450billion since the start of the Ukraine war, adding that "our sanctions are working". He said that the best way to get a "fair peace" in Ukraine was through collective pressure. The spokesperson stated that "we?remain devoted to exerting maximum economic pressure on Russia in pursuit of a fair and lasting peace in Ukraine." (Reporting and editing by William James; Alistair Smout)
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TEPCO delays commercial launch of Kashiwazaki - Kariwa nuclear reactor
Tokyo Electric Power announced 'on Friday that it is likely to delay the start of commercial operations at the 'Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power station due to a minor leak in electricity transmission. TEPCO announced that it has decided to suspend?from the No. 6 reactor of the plant. The electricity leak was detected by an alarm in the reactor No. A spokesperson for the utility said that the utility had planned to restart commercial operations on March 18, but needed time 'to investigate the issue.' It is unclear how long this delay will last. The spokesperson stated that the reactor showed no abnormalities, and it continues to operate safely. TEPCO stated that when the reactor is disconnected from the transmission system its output will be reduced to?about 20%, but the reactor?will?remain?in operation. The spokesperson stated that once the output is reduced to 20% it takes about a week for the output to be restored to 100%. Kashiwazaki Kariwa is the largest nuclear power plant in the world. It was the first reactor to restart for TEPCO since the Fukushima catastrophe of 2011. Reporting by Yuka?Obayashi and Kantaro?Komiya Editing Chang-Ran Kim
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Indonesia Minister says high oil prices may cause budget deficit to exceed mandated limit
The senior Indonesian economic minister stated on Friday that the government may impose an additional tax on certain commodities such as palm oil if it 'needs' to reduce the impact of rising global oil prices on the budget. Airlangga Hartarto said that Indonesia, as a global commodity powerhouse, the world's biggest producer of nickel and palm oil, could impose additional tax on nickel, copper, and gold. President Prabowo said that austerity measures can be taken to mitigate the effects of the?rising oil prices in the world'. Airlangga, a government modeller, said that if oil prices remained high due to the Iran War it would be hard to maintain the fiscal deficit within the legal mandate of 3% GDP without cutting spending or reducing the economic growth. He said that he would have to consider these scenarios and the possibility of issuing an emergency order in the event the deficit limit was exceeded. He said that the government had 'predicted three scenarios for predicting?how the Middle East War could impact Southeast Asia’s largest economy. He said that under the first scenario where the Middle East war lasted five months, and crude oil was $86 per barrel in this year, the rupiah fell to 17,000 against the dollar. This would mean the growth rate would remain at 5.3% but the fiscal surplus would reach 3.18%. Airlangga stated that if crude oil averaged $97 the growth rate would fall to 5.2%, and the deficit would reach 3.53%. In the worst-case scenario, crude would average $115. This would result in a deficit of 4%. The oil prices continued to rise on Friday, as the Middle East conflict and resulting disruptions in the Gulf outweighed U.S. measures to reduce supply concerns. Brent futures May LCOc1 rose?88 cents or 0.9% to $101.34 per barrel at 0918 GMT. This is a 9% weekly rise. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for April CLc1 rose 26 cents or 0.3% to $95.99 per barrel, resulting in a weekly increase of 6%. Goldman Sachs forecasted on Friday that Brent oil prices would be over $100 per barrel in March, and $85 in May due to the Middle East war, the damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East, and the disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz.
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Why haven't Iran's allies, the Houthis in Yemen, entered the war?
Iran's Shiite allies from Lebanon and Iraq joined the regional war sparked by U.S.-Israeli?strikes against Tehran. Yemen's Houthi Rebels, who are heavily armed, and can strike Gulf neighbours?and cause major disruptions to maritime navigation in the Arabian Peninsula have yet to join the fray. This is why: Who are the Houthis? Houthis is a military?and?religious?movement led by the Houthi?family and based in north Yemen. They are Shi'ite Muslims who belong to the Zaydi Sect. After the "Arab Spring", the Houthis expanded their power, and developed closer ties to Iran. The group took advantage of the instability in the country to capture the capital Sanaa, Yemen in 2014. Saudi Arabia led an Arab coalition in a military operation the following year to try and dislodge this group. The Houthis showed off their significant drone and missile capabilities by attacking Saudi Arabian oil installations as well as vital infrastructure. The U.N. brokered an agreement between warring parties in Yemen for a truce to be implemented by 2022. This truce has held since then. RED SEA ATTACKS Following the attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023 that triggered a devastating Israeli campaign in Gaza the Houthis started firing on international?shipping at the Red Sea. They claimed to be doing this in support of Palestinians. Israel responded by airstrikes on Houthi targets after the Houthis fired missiles and drones at Israel. The U.S. launched attacks against the Houthis. In October 2025, the Houthis stopped their attacks after a ceasefire brokered by the U.S. between Israel and Hamas. Why have they not entered the war? Abdul Malik Al-Houthi, the leader of Houthi group, said on March 5 that his group is ready to strike any time. In a televised address, he stated that "our fingers are ready to trigger military escalation at any time should the situation warrant it." They have not announced their formal?joining of the war', unlike Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iraqi armed group. Hezbollah, Iraqi groups and Houthi religious doctrine do not follow the supreme leader of Iran in the same manner. Yemen experts claim that while Iran promotes the Houthis in its "Axis of Resistance" region, they are primarily motivated by domestic issues even though there is a shared political affinity between Iran and Hezbollah. The U.S. claims that Iran armed, funded and trained the Houthis along with Hezbollah. The Houthis deny that they are Iranian proxy forces and claim to develop their own weapons. What might they do? Observers are divided on the possible course of action that Houthis - a notoriously volatile group - may take. Analysts and diplomats believe that they have conducted individual?attacks against targets in neighboring countries. These claims could not be substantiated. Some say that the Houthis have been keeping their powder dry, waiting for the right moment to join the conflict in coordination with Iran to exert maximum pressure. This could be provided by the 'closure' of the Strait of Hormuz for Gulf Arab hydrocarbon exports, and the shift towards a heavy reliance on Red Sea. Some analysts believe that the Houthis might decide to stay out of the conflict entirely, due to the growing pressure on their economy at home, and the possibility of fierce attacks from the U.S. and Israel, and possibly even Saudi Arabia, if they joined the war. (reporting from Timour Azhari, Riyadh. Editing by Aidan Lewis).
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Merz, Germany's Merz, says that easing Russia sanctions would be wrong
The German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Friday that any move to ease sanctions towards Russia was wrong. This came after the United States issued a waiver of 30 days for countries to purchase sanctioned Russian petroleum products and oil stranded in the sea. Merz and his Norwegian counterpart held a joint press conference at which they said: "We think that's wrong." "There's a problem right now with the prices, but not?with the supply." In that regard, I'd like to know what other factors led to the U.S. Government to make this decision. The waiver, which was issued to 'ease oil and gas prices caused by the war that the U.S., Israel and Iran are fighting with Iran', had little impact on Friday. Brent crude benchmark rose to $101 per barrel by 1000 GMT. Iran's response has included attacks on ships in Strait of 'Hormuz. This has brought non-Iranian vessels transiting through the main 'gateway' for'much of Middle East's exports of oil to a standstill, and forced producers in the area to reduce output. Merz stated: "Let me be clear, once again. Germany is not part of this conflict and we don't want to become a participant." Reporting by Andreas Rinke; writing by Thomas Seythal; editing by Friederike Hiene and Miranda Murray
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Kremlin: Russia and US have a shared interest in stabilising the energy markets
The Russian government sees the lifting of U.S. sanctions on its oil as an attempt by Washington to stabilize global energy markets. Washington's waiver of sanctions on Russian oil is an effort to stabilize global energy markets. The two countries share a common interest in this. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the United States had granted a 30-day exemption to 'countries' to purchase Russian oil and petroleum product currently at sea. This was done to stabilize global markets roiled by Iran War. Peskov stated that stabilisation of the market is impossible without a significant volume of Russian oil entering the market. "We are seeing actions taken by the United States to try and stabilise the energy markets. "Our interests are similar in this regard," he added. The U.S. government's latest effort to tame the energy prices after U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran paralyzed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was the second significant rollback of Ukraine-related U.S. Sanctions in less than a week. Peskov stated that there was a chance the global energy crisis would escalate. He said that such actions would, "of course, to some extent" help stabilize the market because, "without significant volumes Russian oil, it is impossible for market stability." (Reporting and writing by Dmitry Antonov; editing by Mark Trevelyan).
Global EV sales fell again in February
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence's (BMI) data on Friday showed that global EV registrations dropped 11% in February. This was largely due to China, which saw its?largest? drop of sales since the COVID-19 epidemic began early 2020.
China, as governments around the world slowed down policies to encourage the purchase of electric vehicles, has stopped funding auto trade-ins. A tax exemption for EV purchases expired in China at the end last year.
BMI reported that China, the world's biggest EV market, saw a 32% drop year-on-year in battery-electric and plug-in hybrid registrations in February. This is a proxy measure of sales.
This was in line a 34% decline in total car sales for the month, as reported by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
Charles Lester, BMI Data Manager, said that consumers are price-sensitive.
In February, worldwide registrations dropped for the second consecutive month to just under one million vehicles sold. This is their lowest level since 2024.
The North American EV market shrank by 35%, to less than 90,000 units, for a fifth consecutive month, following the termination of a tax credit program in the United States, last September, and the proposals made by the Trump administration to further reduce Co2 emissions standards.
Trump's policies, coupled with a cooling of global demand for electric cars, have forced carmakers that are most exposed to the U.S. to write down over $70 billion.
Europe has also retreated from its emission targets. In February, EV sales on the continent increased by 21%. This is a growth rate that has not slowed down compared to last year.
The number of EVs registered in other parts of the world increased by 78% to more than 180,000 vehicles, as Chinese automakers expanded their presence on Asian markets, in Australia and in Europe. They also fought off fierce domestic competition.
(source: Reuters)