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US and China's economic chiefs will meet in Paris, clearing the way for a Trump-Xi Summit

The top U.S. economic officials and Chinese leaders will launch a second round of negotiations in Paris on Sunday. They hope to smooth out the kinks of their trade truce, and prepare for Donald Trump's visit to Beijing at the end March to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Discussions between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are expected to center on the shifting of?U.S. Tariffs, the flow of Chinese rare earth minerals and magnetics to U.S. customers, American export controls, and Chinese purchases of U.S. agriculture products are all expected to be discussed.

A source familiar with the planning of the two parties said that the two sides would meet at the Paris headquarters for the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. China does not belong to the club of 38 mostly rich democracies, and it considers itself as a developing nation.

U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer is also expected to join the discussions. The talks will continue a series of meetings held in European cities during the last year, aimed at easing the tensions between the two world's largest economies.

U.S. and China trade analysts say that there is little time for preparation, as Washington's focus is on the U.S. - Israel war against Iran. The prospects of a major breakthrough in trade are therefore limited at either the Paris or Beijing summit.

Scott Kennedy, an expert in China economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, said, "Both sides have a minimal goal of holding a meeting. This keeps things together and prevents a rupture and reescalation of tensions."

Kennedy said that Trump might want to leave Beijing with a commitment from China to buy new Boeing planes and more U.S. soybeans and liquefied gas, but he would need to make some concessions on U.S. Export Controls.

Kennedy, however, said that the chances of a summit "that superficially appears to be making progress" but in reality leaves things at their current state for the past four months were good.

Trump and Xi may meet at least three more times in 2018. This includes a China hosted APEC Summit in November?and a U.S. hosted G20 Summit in December, which could result in tangible progress.

IRAN WAR OIL CONCERNS

It is likely that the U.S. and Israel's war against Iran will be discussed at the Paris talks. This is especially true in relation to the recent spike in oil -prices, as well as the closing of the Strait of Hormuz through which China receives?45% of her oil. Bessent announced on Thursday that sanctions would be waived for 30 days to allow the sale Russian oil in tankers stranded out at sea. This was done to increase supplies.

Trump called on other countries to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz after Washington bombed military sites at Iran's Kharg Island, a hub for oil loading. Iran had threatened to retaliate.

In a Sunday commentary, China's Xinhua state-run news agency stated that "meaningful" progress could be made in Sino-U.S. Economic Cooperation to restore confidence in an economy which is becoming increasingly fragile.

TRADE TRACE REVIEW

Both sides will review their progress on meeting the commitments made under the October 2025 Trade truce that was declared by Trump and Xi at Busan in South Korea. The agreement prevented a major flare up in tensions. It lowered U.S. import tariffs and suspended for a whole year China's export controls of rare earths. The deal also halted the expansion of a U.S. list of Chinese companies that are banned from purchasing high-tech U.S. products such as semiconductor manufacturing machinery.

China has also agreed to purchase 12 million metric tonnes of U.S. soya beans during the marketing year 2025 and 25 millions tons for the season 2026, which begins with the harvest in the fall. Bessent and other U.S. officials have stated that China has met its commitments in the Busan agreement, citing initial soybean purchases.

While some industries receive rare earth exports from China - which dominates the global production - U.S. aerospace firms and semiconductor firms are not receiving them and are experiencing a worsening shortage of key materials, such as yttrium used in heat resistant coatings for jet engine.

William Chou said that the U.S. will focus on agricultural purchases from China and greater access for Chinese rare earths at the Paris talks.

NEW TRADE PROBES

Greer and 'Bessent bring a fresh irritant into the Paris talks: a "Section 301", a new investigation into unfair trading practices that targets China and 15 major trading partners based on alleged excess industrial capacities. This could lead to a second round of tariffs in a matter of months. Greer has also launched a probe into allegations of forced labor in 60 countries including China that could lead to the ban on certain imports.

The investigations aim to rebuild Trump’s tariff pressure against trading partners after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump's global trade tariffs were illegal under an emergency law. The ruling effectively'reduced Trump’s tariffs on Chinese products by 20 percentage points. But he immediately imposed an?global tariff of 10% under another trade law.

China denounced Friday the investigations and stated that it reserves the right to take countermeasures. China Daily, the state-run newspaper, added in an editorial that these investigations were unilateral actions that complicate negotiation.

Xinhua reported that "the new round of discussions is both an opportunity as well as a test."

The U.S. will have a major role to play in determining whether the talks are successful. Washington must approach the talks with a pragmatic and rational mindset, and act in accordance with the principles which underpin stable China-U.S. Economic Relations." (Reporting and editing by Andrea Ricci; Additional reporting in Beijing by Ryan Woo; Reporting by David Lawder)

(source: Reuters)