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A ceasefire that is too far for the markets
Gregor Stuart Hunter gives us a look at what the markets will be like tomorrow in Europe and globally. Traders are battling with contradicting 'headlines': the renewed fighting between Iran and the U.S. on the one hand and the ceasefire?between Israel & Lebanon?on teh other. This time, there's no sign of a relief rally. Brent crude futures are just 0.7% down at $97.12 per barrel, after Lebanon and Israel agreed on a ceasefire. The agreement is conditional upon a complete cessation in fire by the Iran-aligned Hezbollah and the evacuation of its operatives out of the South Litani Sector. The two sides agreed to a truce last month, but the hostilities continued. The Republican-led U.S. The House of Representatives passed a resolution on war powers to prevent President Donald Trump from continuing his conflict against the?Iran. The vote was largely symbolic, and it will have to be approved by the Senate in order to become effective. The Wall Street Journal, citing U.S. sources, reported that Trump told his aides in private that he might 'consider ending the ceasefire agreement with Iran if Iran kills American soldiers. S&P 500 futures are down by 0.5%. They're on course for a second consecutive day of losses after hostilities erupted in the Middle East and talks between Washington and Tehran failed to make any progress. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific e-shares index outside Japan fell 1.8% while the Nikkei 225 dropped 2%. Early European trades saw pan-regional futures down 0.5%. German DAX Futures fell 0.4%, and?FTSE Futures 0.4% lower. The yen has strengthened in other parts of the world, moving away from the 160 mark that many traders believe marks the unofficial intervention zone for the authorities. After Governor Kazuo ueda's hawkish remarks the day before, the government announced that it expected the Bank of Japan to coordinate their policy with them on Thursday. Some analysts believe Tokyo's recent interventions in the markets look a lot more attractive when viewed from a?two-decade perspective. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. Economic Events Germany: HCOB - Construction PMI for May France: HCOB Construction PMI May UK: S&P Global UK Construction Construction PMI for the month of May and new passenger vehicle registrations for the month of May Debt auctions: France: Government debt for 11 years, 12 years, 16 years and 31 year terms
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As markets weigh US-Iran optimism, gold rises as the dollar and oil weaken.
The gold price rose?on Thursday as a result of lower?oil prices and a 'weaker dollar. Investors reassessed renewed expectations regarding a U.S. - Israel war against Iran. As of 0408 GMT, spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,464.69 an ounce. U.S. gold for August delivery rose 0.6% to $4491.70. Dollar eased making greenback bullion prices more affordable for holders other currencies. Gold's gains are still heavily dependent on oil and the dollar. It only rises when they retreat, so it is highly dependent on the positive U.S. Iran headlines to sustain any momentum," said Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade. The Trump?administration announced on Wednesday that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to implement a truce to end hostilities. This has boosted hopes for a broader agreement to end the?Iran Conflict. The Republican-led U.S.?House of Representatives passed a resolution that would prevent U.S. president Donald Trump from continuing his war against Iran. This reflects the growing concern expressed by members of Trump's party over the conflict, which has lasted for three months. The oil prices fell on Thursday as the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon boosted expectations of a U.S. Iran peace deal. Increased oil prices can increase inflation and keep interest rates high for longer. Gold is often seen as a hedge to inflation. However, higher interest rates can weigh down on this non-yielding metal. John Williams, the New York Federal Reserve president, said that he did not anticipate any 'upside risks' to the?inflation brought on by the Middle East war to last for a long time and reiterated the fact that there is no need to change the U.S. currency policy at this point. "I don't believe we've seen the end of the bull market, but I think it's time for a general shakeout." Matt Simpson, senior analyst at StoneX, said that he expects a choppy trading environment as we approach the year's end. He also predicts a slight upward bias of $5,000. Spot silver increased 1% at $73.44 an ounce. Platinum gained 1% at $1,878.50 and palladium rose 0.6% to 1,309.68.
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Sunshine Silver Mining raises US IPO of $270 Million
'Sunshine Silver Mining & Refining Company' raised $270m in its U.S. Initial Public Offering on Wednesday. It joined a growing number of 'companies rushing for new listings to capitalize on a resurgent investor enthusiasm. The Kellogg company, based in Idaho, sold 20,000,000 shares at $13.50 each, the low end of their indicated range. This move coincides with a surge in IPO activity in the United States?in 2026. High-profile names like Elon Musk's SpaceX, and AI giant Anthropic are preparing to make their debuts in the coming days. CopperTech Metals, a mining firm that filed for a New York IPO on Tuesday, is also joining the surge. In 2018, at least 18 companies, mostly Canadians and Australians, as well as a few U.S. startups have completed or are currently pursuing dual U.S. listing, compared to just three in the year 2025. Sunshine Silver was founded in 2010 and focuses on the acquisition, redevelopment, and operation of precious-metal assets throughout North America. The company plans to expand and restart a mine that was previously closed in Idaho's Silver Valley. This is one of the most historic silver-producing areas in?the U.S. Electrum Group,?Ospraie Management and others are among its backers. According to the filing, Electrum expects to retain more than half of Sunshine Silver's outstanding shares once the IPO has been completed. Sunshine Silver is set to?list at the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol SSMR on Thursday, alongside a number of?prominent companies such as Honeywell Quantinuum & Gas-Engine manufacturer Innio. Morgan Stanley, Scotiabank and BMO Capital Markets acted as joint book-running managers of Sunshine Silver's offering.
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Iron ore falls to six-week low due to China's demand concerns
Iron ore prices continued to fall on Thursday, reaching a 'lowest level in over six weeks.' This was due to rising concerns regarding demand from 'China, the worlds largest steel consumer. Iron ore, the most traded contract on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange(DCE), fell by 0.96% at 0327 GMT to 774.5 Yuan ($114.32) per metric ton. This was its lowest level since April 20, As of 0317 GMT the benchmark?July Iron Ore traded on the Singapore Exchange had fallen 0.93% to $102.7 per tonne, after having hit its lowest level since April 14, at $102.5. Analysts said that demand for iron ore is likely to decrease as the risks of steel production reductions increase, and high coal prices squeeze margins. Steven Yu, senior analyst at Mysteel, said that "Steel has begun to feel the impact of higher energy prices and inflation." The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been struggling. Rebar fell 0.16%, while hot-rolled coils dropped 0.12%. Wire rod also lost 0.39%, and stainless steel declined 2.02%. The price of coking coal (coke) and its coke-like product, which is a reduced supply, has continued to rise, with a gain of 4.66% and 2.45% respectively. Analysts at Galaxy Futures stated in a note that "a supply contraction is certain; aside from coal mine production being suspended, attention should be paid to regulation of off-balance sheet production which could have an important impact and provide upward momentum 'to prices." The death of 'at least 82' people in a mine accident that occurred in Shanxi Province in late May has prompted strict safety inspections. This has led to the suspension of production at many mines.
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Advent, ADIA-backed gas engine maker Innio raises $2.43 billion in US IPO
Investors flock to companies that are driving the AI boom, including gas engine manufacturer Innio. Innio, based in Munich, Germany, has a principal?shareholder - AI Alpine. The company is co-owned by Advent International, and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. 90 million shares were sold at $27 per share, the highest price of the range indicated by the company. The listing comes against a favorable ?backdrop for AI infrastructure-linked firms, with investors flocking to companies powering the technology's buildout, from electrification ?to supply chain for data centers. Innio will be one of several companies, ranging from software to insurance, that list in New York this Thursday. The move is being supported by stronger markets and pent-up demand. Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan were the joint book-running managers for this offering. Innio is set to begin trading under the Nasdaq symbol "INIO", on Thursday. Innio began to take shape after Advent purchased General Electric's Distributed Power business for $3.25 billion in 2018. Five years later the sovereign wealth fund ADIA acquired a small stake in the company. Innio, under Advent's ownership has increased its investment in U.S. assembly and manufacturing capacity, and focused on high growth opportunities. Innio manufactures gas engines?under the Jenbacher?and Waukesha?brands for critical infrastructure including data centers and microgrids. Data center operators are increasingly pairing new facilities with distributed power generation. Innio’s annual order intake for data center equipment increased from $27 millions in?2023, to $2,28 billion by 2025. The company has also scored some major?wins including an agreement to build a multi-gigawatt power plant in a large data center.
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Officials at the White House say that Trump will be spending $700,000,000 on new coal subsidies.
According to a White House spokesperson, U.S. president Donald Trump plans to use Cold War national defense powers in order to send $700 million towards coal plants. The official said that Trump could announce on Thursday he would invoke the Defense Production Act of 1950, which grants presidents broad?authority to national security-related industries. He will upgrade more than 12 coal power plants and build a massive West Coast Coal Export Terminal, as well as match corporate funds for the construction of new power plants. The person who spoke under condition of anonymity did not want to "preempt" the President's announcement and cautioned the details might still change. The Trump administration has framed energy issues in existential terms as it eyes the domestic need to sustain power-hungry artificial-intelligence data centers and aims to marginalize foreign adversaries that hold large fossil fuel reserves. The U.S. has seen a steady decline in coal usage. According to the U.S. energy?information administration, coal once accounted more than half of U.S. electric generation. However, it has fallen to less than one-fifth over recent years. The power?producers are relying more on renewable energy and natural gas, as they're concerned about the effect of fossil fuels on global warming and their dependence on fragile supply chains. More than half of the $700m will be used to upgrade 13 coal plants, while $185m will be used to'match corporate funds' for coal facilities in Alaska, Maryland, and West Virginia. $75m will go towards the proposed West Gateway export terminal, which has been planned since the early 1990s. Bloomberg was the first to report on the coal support plan. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong, Jarrett Renshaw, Jacob Bogage)
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Stocks fall on escalation of hostilities
Investors were unsure as Asian stocks began trading Thursday. The stock market fell as renewed fighting between the U.S. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.8% while S&P 500 e-minis futures dropped 0.4%. After a short holiday, Korean shares reopened with a 2% decline. Japan's Nikkei 225 also fell 1.3%. Analysts from Westpac stated in a report that "financial markets have shifted back to a risk-off state as the U.S. retaliated against Iran again." The S&P 500 fell 0.7% overnight and oil prices rose around 2%. Hostilities in the Middle East erupted again and the talks between Washington and Tehran showed little progress. The ISM Services Sector PMI Print was better than expected in the U.S. in May, as businesses placed preemptive orders and built up inventories to prepare for shortages and increased prices due to war. Brent crude futures fell 0.7% to $97.12 per barrel when trading resumed on Thursday. Lebanon and Israel had agreed on a ceasefire that is conditional on the complete cessation in fire by the Iran-aligned Hezbollah and the evacuation of all its operatives out of the South Litani Sector. Both sides agreed to a ceasefire last month, but hostilities continued. The Republican-led U.S. House of Representatives passed a war power resolution on Wednesday, to prevent President Donald Trump from continuing his conflict against Iran. The measure is mostly symbolic, as it still needs to pass the Senate. It would also need two-thirds of both chambers in order to override a veto almost guaranteed by President Donald Trump. In a recent research report, analysts at ING stated that "Geopolitics continues to drive volatility as conflicting signals dampen hope for a quick resolution to the conflict." Broadcom shares fell more than 13% after the company missed Wall Street's expectations for revenue in the second quarter on Wednesday. Its top executive also left his previous forecast of 2027 sales?unchanged. This is a rare indication that AI chipmaker Broadcom may be losing its steam. The yen is down 0.1% on the currency market at 159.945 per dollar. This was after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo ueda stated that the central bank should discuss pros and cons of increasing?interest rates, if inflationary risk outweighs downside risks for the economy. These remarks indicate a high probability of a rate increase this month. After a three-day rally that?took currency to its highest level since April 7, the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures greenback strength against a basket six currencies, remained?steady' at 99.45. The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds 10-years was down by 0.4 basis points at 4.485%. Gold rose by 0.5% to $4455.71, remaining firmly in the same trading channel that it has been in since mid-last month. Bitcoin dropped 1.3% to $64,047.39 while ether rose by 1.8% to $1.810.83. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam.)
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Oil drops as Lebanon and Israel implement ceasefire
The oil prices fell 'on Thursday' as the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement boosted expectations for a wider deal to end the U.S./Israeli war against 'Iran'. Meanwhile, U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution to limit President Donald Trump's military powers. Brent futures fell 67 cents or 0.69% to $97.14 a barge by 0015 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate CLc1 crude dropped 62 cents or?0.65% to $95.4. After renewed Middle East hostilities, including Iranian attacks against Kuwait and U.S. military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, both benchmarks gained about 2%. The Republican-led House in the U.S. approved a Resolution on Wednesday to prevent Trump from continuing his war against Iran. To take effect, the resolution would require Senate approval and a two-thirds majority in both chambers. Trump said on Wednesday that progress could be made in the negotiations with Iran by this weekend. Abbas Araqchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister, said on Wednesday that Tehran's contact with Washington has not been cut, but there have been no advances in the negotiations. Both sides are studying the texts they exchanged. The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that U.S. crude stockpiles dropped by 8 million barrels, to 433.7 millions barrels for the week ending?May 29. This is in contrast to the polled expectations of analysts for a 4 million barrel draw. Haitong Futures stated?in a report that oil prices are likely to move towards the higher end of their range because of a persistent imbalance between supply and demand as global crude inventories continue to fall rapidly. (Reporting and editing by Sam Li, Lewis Jackson, and Cynthia Osterman).
As markets weigh US-Iran optimism, gold rises as dollar and oil weaken.
Gold prices rose on 'Thursday', supported by lower crude oil prices and a weakened?dollar as investors reassessed renewed expectations of a resolution to U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.
As of 0218 GMT, spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,461.09 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery gained 0.5%, to $4487.90.
Dollar eased making greenback bullion prices more affordable for holders other currencies.
Gold's gains remain largely at the mercy of the dollar and oil. It only rises when they pull back. This makes it dependent on positive U.S. - Iran headlines to sustain momentum, said Tim Waterer.
The Trump administration announced on Wednesday that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a ceasefire, ending hostilities. This has boosted hopes for a wider deal to end Iran's conflict.
The Republican-led U.S. The Republican-led?U.S.
The oil prices fell in the early hours of Thursday's trading as hopes for a U.S. Iran peace agreement were boosted by the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
Increased oil prices can increase inflation and make interest rates stay higher longer. Gold is often seen as a hedge to inflation but higher interest rates can weigh down on the non-yielding precious metal.
John Williams, the New York Federal Reserve president, said that he did not expect the inflation risks caused by the Middle East war to last long and said there was no reason to change the U.S.'s monetary policy at this time.
"I don’t think the bull run is over, but I do believe it's time for a general shakeout." Matt Simpson, senior analyst at StoneX, said that he expects choppy trading as we approach the year's end. He also predicts a slight upward bias of $5,000.
Silver spot rose 0.6%, to $73.13 an ounce. Platinum gained 0.7%, to $1.872.11 and palladium increased 0.9%, to $1.313.51. (Reporting and editing by Sherry Phillips, Ronojoy Mazumdar, and Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)