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Is India the ultimate "anti-AI" trade? : Raychaudhuri

Is India the ultimate "anti-AI" trade? : Raychaudhuri
Is India the ultimate "anti-AI" trade? : Raychaudhuri

India is emerging as a haven for those who are escaping the wreckage of Asia's AI stock boom.

Indian stocks' lack of direct AI exposure, whether to creators or large language models or semiconductors and chip manufacturers, dampened foreign investors enthusiasm for the country's shares for most of 2025 and 2026. Instead, money flooded into South Korea's and Taiwan's tech saturated markets.

This summer, the trend has changed.

Since mid-June equities have fallen in South Korea and Taiwan, reflecting growing concerns about the durability and profitability of massive AI capital investments. India's benchmark index is up 5%, as investors have shifted their money to a perceived anti-AI trade.

This is a small change. In the last 12 months, benchmark indices for South Korea and Taiwan have risen by around 90% and 80% respectively, while India's index has fallen 5%.

This recent rotation could be more than a defensive move. It comes at an advantageous time for India as the economy is experiencing several tailwinds. India is also finding its place within the AI ecosystem. This could mean that it's not an anti-AI trade, but rather a less concentrated tech bet.

Market tailwinds Recent macroeconomic data from India have been encouraging in several ways. The acceleration of bank loans and fixed asset investment signals a pickup in consumption and investment. Globally, the annualized growth in real gross domestic product of 7.8% for the first quarter led to expectations that the World Bank's and IMF's growth forecasts of 6.6% and 6,4% respectively for 2026 will be exceeded.

The foreign portfolio investment market is also reviving. While overseas investors had sold $29 billion worth of "Indian equity" in the year's first half, they bought $1.7 billion during the first weeks of July. In the previous month, foreign investment in Indian fixed-income securities had recovered. It was probably due to a number of government policies including the exemption from withholding tax and capital gain tax for foreigners on government securities. A second measure to reduce the foreign exchange hedging cost for Indian commercial banks servicing foreign accounts will likely mobilize around $50 billion of deposits from non-resident Indians.

These inflows could, in turn help stabilize the volatile Indian rupee. The rupee is down 6.5% against the U.S. Dollar so far in 2026. It briefly recovered 2.6% following the U.S. - Iran ceasefire in march before falling again in late summer.

The consensus earnings of India's biggest companies have been rising across several sectors. According to FactSet's estimates, the consensus earnings per share for India's financials and telecommunications sectors, as well as the process industries, consumer services, and basic materials, have all been raised in the last month. This reverses a downward trend that has been consistent over the last two years.

THE ANTI-AI PLAY

India's "anti AI" label may be too simplistic as the technological revolution does not bypass the country.

India's call center and back-office industry, which is a large sector in India, is a highly susceptible to AI disruption. But that's just one part of the AI equation. India is becoming one of the most important locations for AI deployment. According to ADP Research Institute, AI usage is on the rise in Indian cities due to a large, multilingual population and widespread smartphone access. Over 40% of Indian employees use AI daily, which is double the global average.

Similarly, global AI providers are increasing their investment in India's infrastructure. This includes high-performance server, power transmission and generation equipment, and industrial refrigeration. Google, Microsoft, and Amazon will spend a total of $57 billion on tech infrastructure in India over the next five-year period. Adani Group, Microsoft, and Amazon will each invest $100 billion, and Blackstone $30 billion. These numbers show the size of the India market. It is home to the most populous nation in the world, with a median aged under 30.

The appropriate ?categorization of the Indian market's relationship with AI is therefore not "anti-AI" but "anti-AI-concentration".

Not a home run yet

Even though things look better for Indian stocks, a sustained rally by no means is a sure thing. The recent dismantling and resumption in military conflict between the U.S. and Iran, coupled with a surge in oil prices is a reminder to large energy importers such as India of the macroeconomic risk they face. Brent crude prices soared by over 30% after Middle East hostilities erupted again in early-July, and the Indian Rupee dropped against the dollar. Although oil prices have since?fallen, further volatility is expected as a lasting resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict seems far away. Crude prices are not the only thing pushing up 'India's consumer price index. Food prices were a major factor in the 4.4% reading for June, which is still above the RBI's midpoint medium-term target of 4.0%. This inflationary pressure could intensify due to India's weakening monsoon. This could, in turn trigger a rate-hiking process by the Reserve Bank of India.

Indian?equities had a good few weeks. If this can be translated into a "true" shift in investor position, it will depend on the level of concern investors have about AI-concentrated market and how the recent technological and geopolitical turmoil has affected India.

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(source: Reuters)