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Europe faces a Q4 jet-fuel supply deficit despite South Korea becoming the latest major supplier

Analysts and shipping data indicate that Europe faces a jet fuel deficit in the fourth quarter, despite turning to "far-flung" suppliers, such as South Korea. South Korea is expected to increase its jet exports into Europe to four-year-high levels by September.

Since the Iran War broke out over a half-year ago, Europe has imported more jet fuel, including from Nigeria, the United States, and Canada. The war had a devastating impact on Middle East supplies, and cut off about?half of Europe’s jet imports.

Europe is still highly vulnerable to further disruptions in supply as tensions increase in the Middle East. According to?Consultancy Energy Aspects, Europe is expected to have a jet fuel deficit in the fourth quarter of 510,000 barrels compared with surpluses in?the United States of 18,000 barrels a day and Asia-Pacific of 419,000 barrels bpd. The trend for the third quarter is similar.

According to data on flows, South Korea was the largest source of jet fuel shipments to Europe in September. According to Kpler commodities intelligence, European imports from South Korea of jet fuel in September have reached 129,000 barrels a day. This is the highest level since October 2022. LSEG data shows similar volumes.

James Noel Beswick, the head of commodities for market intelligence firm Sparta Commodities, says that Europe will continue to import jet fuel as long as there is a shortage on the continent.

Jet fuel is a middle distillate, along with diesel and gasoil. This week, European diesel reached a new record high. It was firmer than the Asian diesel markets.

Noel Beswick said that the widening gap between Asian and European benchmarks makes it more profitable to import barrels into Europe.

EUROPE'S JET FUEL STOCKS DROP

Imports from South Korea ?also coincide with low inventories, with stocks held independently in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) oil refining and storage hub hitting ?their lowest in ?seven years in the week to September 10.

Asia is the swing supplier of jet-fuel to Europe, and traders usually turn there when they judge that 'the arbitrage' - or the relative price difference between the two regions – is profitable. Kpler data revealed that average monthly exports were around 1.5 million barrels.

South Korea's July jet fuel production hit a seven-year-high of nearly 13.89 million barrels. Exports also reached a three-and-a-half-year-high.

This increase is due to a rise in the'refinery crude processing rate.' Traders expect August crude runs to be stronger than July. The government's provisional data for July showed refining output at 2.7 millions barrels per day. This is up 16% from the previous month.

(source: Reuters)