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Oil prices fall on hope of Iran agreement, but yen surges after intervention
On Monday, oil prices fell and stocks wobbled as hopes for peace in the Middle East increased. Meanwhile, the yen suddenly jumped after the U.S. confirmed a joint intervention by Japan and the U.S. to support the fragile currency. Brent crude futures fell more than 6%, to $82.41, after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that talks with Iran would take place on Monday. He had previously called off an imminent strike on Iran in order to reach a agreement to reopen Strait of Hormuz and resolve the impasse regarding Tehran's nuke capabilities. S&P futures increased by 0.4%, while Nasdaq's futures gained 0.6%. Japan's Nikkei fell 1%, while South Korea's KOSPI dropped 3.6%. MSCI's broadest?Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 1% at the opening of trading. The Japanese yen jumped more than 1%, to 155.39 US dollars in a sudden move that alerted traders for another round of intervention. Japan and the U.S. have conducted a 'coordinated' yen buying intervention and won't hesitate to take further actions, the Japanese finance ministry announced on Monday. This is a rare bilateral measure to stop the yen from falling to new 40-year-lows. Masayuki Nakajima, a strategist at Mizuho Bank, said that the goal was unlikely to be to reverse the trend of the dollar/yen because structural forces are still yen-negative. This includes persistent interest rate differentials between the U.S. and Japan. It is hard to argue that the trend of yen depreciation has fundamentally changed. Nakajima stated that in the short term, momentum could shift towards yen appreciation as recent U.S.Japan communications carry a "pointed warning to speculative trader". Trump had said that the United States would help Japan to support the yen in a show of friendship and for the benefit of the global economy. "They had a weakening currency, and they wanted a little help." "We're always there for Japan," Trump said in response to the reporter's question about why the U.S. supports the yen. Nick Twidale is the chief market strategist for?ATFX Global. He said that Trump's comments about it being?basically a "friendship trade" take away credibility from U.S. involvement. Twidale stated, "They are pushing the fundamentals and I expect the market will eventually correct the move after the intervention is over, unless there's a change to the underlying factors." (Reporting from Ankur Banerjee, Singapore; Editing Muralikumar Anantharaman).
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ADNOC will switch the oil price benchmark from Murban to Platts-Dubai.
Abu Dhabi National Oil 'Co announced?on Friday that it will change its benchmark for monthly official sales prices for all of its crude grades from Murban crude to Platts Dubai pricing for the month-to-month from November 1. In a press release, ADNOC said that the change will align ADNOC’s OSPs with the month in which cargoes are loaded. This applies to Abu Dhabi crude grades onshore and off-shore, including Murban Das, Umm Lulu, and Upper Zakum. ADNOC will announce differentials for grades to Dubai prices in the month prior to cargo loading. ADNOC stated that the new pricing mechanism "reinforces ADNOC?s commitment to price transparency for its growing client and investor base." The company said it would continue to "meet its obligations" with regards to the delivery of crude grades from Abu Dhabi, both onshore and offshore. The move comes after the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran disrupted oil imports from the Middle East via the Strait of Hormuz, and caused significant hedging losses for traders who deal in Abu Dhabi oil. Since June, the producer has been consulting with customers on proposed changes to its OSPs. ADNOC also sells its crude cargoes through spot tenders?since June, at differentials from Dubai quotes. SUDDEN CHANGE SAYS A TRADER A crude trader told the media on Friday that this announcement was a sudden one. ADNOC stated that the change in pricing mechanism is unlikely to have an impact on any ADNOC listed instruments, including those issued under ADNOC Murban’s GMTN and Sukuk programs. ICE Futures Abu Dhabi (IFAD) said that following ADNOC's announcement it would continue?trading Murban crude contract months with open interest?while others without will be stopped from Friday. A spokesperson for ICE did not respond to a question regarding what would 'happen next. IFAD was established to 'turn ADNOC Murban crude into a global benchmark, and give Middle East producers a transparent exchange-based pricing system. ICE is also home to the global Brent contract. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavensn, Kirby Donovan, Kirby Donovan, and Ahmad Ghaddar)
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Russell: The increase in oil production by OPEC+ is not relevant for the time being, but for the future.
The decision of the core members to?increase crude oil production quotas in September is easy to dismiss as a meaningless act, given the disruptions caused by the Iran conflict. As long as the Strait of Hormuz is largely closed, and as long as there are no solutions to the threats to the Bab el-Mandeb 'waterway, it will be difficult for the 'oil-exporting groups to deliver what they have committed to. Saudi Arabia, Russia and Kuwait are among the OPEC+ members who have agreed to voluntary cuts in output. Algeria, Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Kuwait, Algeria and Oman also agreed. The United Arab Emirates left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in May. This is the final phase of the rollback of the 1.65 million barrels per day supply cut that was originally agreed upon in 2023. The production quotas don't matter for the time being. According to the latest survey, the eight OPEC members with quotas produced 20.276 million bpd, 6.246 millions bpd less than the target. According to OPEC 'data, Russia, as the largest non-OPEC group member, produced 8.928 millions bpd during June. This was almost one million bpd less than its agreed quota. OPEC+’s decision to reverse voluntary production cuts has little weight on the current market. However, it highlights the challenges that oil exporters and -importers face. Three options The crude oil market is currently facing three scenarios, but it is unclear which one is most likely. First, Iran and the United States must reach a deal that will allow them to pass through the Strait of Hormuz unhindered and without interruption. Second, the conflict is sporadic, with periods of escalation, followed by hope for a ceasefire or a deal. These hopes are then dashed, and missiles and drone attacks resume. Third, the ladder of escalation continues. U.S. president Donald Trump orders strikes on civilian and energy infrastructure, and Iran responds by doing the exact same thing against Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq, that host U.S. base. Crude oil futures markets appear to be priced primarily for the first option. Brent benchmark contracts fell 6.8% to $83.98 per barrel in early Asian trading on Monday. The price is 34% lower than the peak of $126.41 per barrel that was reached on April 30. It is also only 16% above the $72.48 closing price on February 27, the day prior to the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. Crude oil will likely drop quickly from its current level if the first option is chosen. It is likely that OPEC+ will be able ramp up production fairly quickly, and put more?barrels on the market when other producers also want to maximize exports. A comprehensive peace agreement would also allow Iran to sell its crude oil openly, meaning that only Russian petroleum may be subjected to Western sanctions. If the second option prevails over the next few months, then the OPEC+'s decision to increase output is rendered largely insignificant. The question then becomes how much oil is able to get through the Strait of Hormuz and how effectively the Saudi exports via Red Sea and United Arab Emirates, from the Gulf of Oman, are able to offset the loss of Hormuz volume. This scenario will likely cause crude oil to be volatile, driven by headlines about Trump's tweets on social media. Markets hope that the third scenario will never happen, as it would mean long-term damage to the Middle East's energy infrastructure. This could lead to global economic pain as the world tries to adjust to the loss of up to 20% of its crude oil and liquefied gas supplies. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Trump announces that Iran talks will take place Monday and does not set a deadline for a deal
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that talks with Iran would take place on Monday. He declined to give a 'deadline for agreement' after announcing earlier that he had halted an imminent attack to reach a quick deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz in order to resolve the impasse regarding Tehran’s nuclear capabilities. Trump said on Saturday night on his Truth Social platform, that Iran and Middle Eastern countries asked for more time to reach a deal which would result in "the Immediate Complete and Total Reopening" of the Strait and "an End to Iran's Nuclear Threat" but that Tehran had to "rapidly come to a DEAL." Trump, who had just returned from a long weekend in New Jersey to Washington, told reporters that negotiations would start on Monday afternoon. He did not specify where or with whom the talks would take place. Trump refused to say if Iran had a deadline to reach an agreement. Would I rather strike a deal?" Trump responded, "I'm not trying to kill people, because people, many people, die and we don’t want that." Trump has repeatedly threatened to escalate the war against Iran that he and Israel launched in late February. This is only to give more time to talks which, so far, have not resulted in a comprehensive agreement. Trump's apparent de-escalation of the war after days of threats from both sides was the latest twist. The attacks have spread from the Gulf to the Red Sea, and even to a Mediterranean facility in Egypt. Iran had largely shut down the Strait of Hormuz before the war began, which was a conduit for 20 percent of the world's oil, and liquefied gas. This caused energy prices to increase and increased inflation. The U.S. President has claimed that the stated goal to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is worth higher fuel prices in the short term. However, the economic pain he has suffered has increased political pressure to find a solution to the conflict. In early Monday trading, oil prices fell by more than 4%. IRANIAN DIPLOMACY Iran's state-run media reported that Abbas Araqchi, Iran's foreign minister, spoke with Prince Faisal bin Farhan of Saudi Arabia and Asim Munir, Pakistan's army chief to discuss diplomatic efforts. IRNA, the official Iranian news agency, reported that negotiations between Tehran & Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz are in their final stage. This was cited by?Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. Esmaeil baghaei, a spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, said that negotiations focused on a new route across the strait. He added that it had "no connection to the opening or closing of the Strait of Hormuz." This is a separate conversation." Last month, Iran publicly rejected a Gulf-backed Omani proposal to manage their shared strait. People who were familiar with the issue had said? The plan also included voluntary fees to be collected for the use of the strait. Eli Cohen, Israel’s Energy Minister and a Member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Security Cabinet, stated that Israel and the U.S. have a close intelligence and security coordination on all events in the region. He added that "we will be there, with or without an agreement and regardless of any outside commitments,?if Iran attempts?to renew its nuclear program?or advance?its ballistic missile industry?we will be there." We will act, and we will strike." Trump and Netanyahu met in Washington on Tuesday. An Israeli official said that they had looked at all options to stop Iran's nuclear programme, including diplomatic pressure, economic pressure, and force. Tehran denies that it is pursuing a nuclear weapon. (Reporting from Yasmine Ghania in Cairo and Menna al-Alaa El-Din aboard Air Force One, and Daniel Moshashai at Dubai; writing and editing by Simon Lewis and Paul Simao.
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Is India the ultimate "anti-AI" trade? : Raychaudhuri
India is emerging as a haven for those who are escaping the wreckage of Asia's AI stock boom. Indian stocks' lack of direct AI exposure, whether to creators or large language models or semiconductors and chip manufacturers, dampened foreign investors enthusiasm for the country's shares for most of 2025 and 2026. Instead, money flooded into South Korea's and Taiwan's tech saturated markets. This summer, the trend has changed. Since mid-June equities have fallen in South Korea and Taiwan, reflecting growing concerns about the durability and profitability of massive AI capital investments. India's benchmark index is up 5%, as investors have shifted their money to a perceived anti-AI trade. This is a small change. In the last 12 months, benchmark indices for South Korea and Taiwan have risen by around 90% and 80% respectively, while India's index has fallen 5%. This recent rotation could be more than a defensive move. It comes at an advantageous time for India as the economy is experiencing several tailwinds. India is also finding its place within the AI ecosystem. This could mean that it's not an anti-AI trade, but rather a less concentrated tech bet. Market tailwinds Recent macroeconomic data from India have been encouraging in several ways. The acceleration of bank loans and fixed asset investment signals a pickup in consumption and investment. Globally, the annualized growth in real gross domestic product of 7.8% for the first quarter led to expectations that the World Bank's and IMF's growth forecasts of 6.6% and 6,4% respectively for 2026 will be exceeded. The foreign portfolio investment market is also reviving. While overseas investors had sold $29 billion worth of "Indian equity" in the year's first half, they bought $1.7 billion during the first weeks of July. In the previous month, foreign investment in Indian fixed-income securities had recovered. It was probably due to a number of government policies including the exemption from withholding tax and capital gain tax for foreigners on government securities. A second measure to reduce the foreign exchange hedging cost for Indian commercial banks servicing foreign accounts will likely mobilize around $50 billion of deposits from non-resident Indians. These inflows could, in turn help stabilize the volatile Indian rupee. The rupee is down 6.5% against the U.S. Dollar so far in 2026. It briefly recovered 2.6% following the U.S. - Iran ceasefire in march before falling again in late summer. The consensus earnings of India's biggest companies have been rising across several sectors. According to FactSet's estimates, the consensus earnings per share for India's financials and telecommunications sectors, as well as the process industries, consumer services, and basic materials, have all been raised in the last month. This reverses a downward trend that has been consistent over the last two years. THE ANTI-AI PLAY India's "anti AI" label may be too simplistic as the technological revolution does not bypass the country. India's call center and back-office industry, which is a large sector in India, is a highly susceptible to AI disruption. But that's just one part of the AI equation. India is becoming one of the most important locations for AI deployment. According to ADP Research Institute, AI usage is on the rise in Indian cities due to a large, multilingual population and widespread smartphone access. Over 40% of Indian employees use AI daily, which is double the global average. Similarly, global AI providers are increasing their investment in India's infrastructure. This includes high-performance server, power transmission and generation equipment, and industrial refrigeration. Google, Microsoft, and Amazon will spend a total of $57 billion on tech infrastructure in India over the next five-year period. Adani Group, Microsoft, and Amazon will each invest $100 billion, and Blackstone $30 billion. These numbers show the size of the India market. It is home to the most populous nation in the world, with a median aged under 30. The appropriate ?categorization of the Indian market's relationship with AI is therefore not "anti-AI" but "anti-AI-concentration". Not a home run yet Even though things look better for Indian stocks, a sustained rally by no means is a sure thing. The recent dismantling and resumption in military conflict between the U.S. and Iran, coupled with a surge in oil prices is a reminder to large energy importers such as India of the macroeconomic risk they face. Brent crude prices soared by over 30% after Middle East hostilities erupted again in early-July, and the Indian Rupee dropped against the dollar. Although oil prices have since?fallen, further volatility is expected as a lasting resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict seems far away. Crude prices are not the only thing pushing up 'India's consumer price index. Food prices were a major factor in the 4.4% reading for June, which is still above the RBI's midpoint medium-term target of 4.0%. This inflationary pressure could intensify due to India's weakening monsoon. This could, in turn trigger a rate-hiking process by the Reserve Bank of India. Indian?equities had a good few weeks. If this can be translated into a "true" shift in investor position, it will depend on the level of concern investors have about AI-concentrated market and how the recent technological and geopolitical turmoil has affected India. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. 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In Nigeria, gunmen abduct and kill 12 women and children
Witnesses said that armed men killed at least 12 people and abducted women, children, and elderly residents of a village in the northwestern state of Sokoto. One resident said that six members of a family were killed when the attackers set their home on fire. Locals claim that the 'gunmen' entered Lajinge village at 11 pm on Saturday night and attacked its residents until?3 am on Sunday morning. In the region, bandits - heavily armed gangs - are known to raid villages and kidnap people for ransom, as well as steal livestock. "They killed at least 12 people, injured another four, and abducted women, children, after rustling many animals," Auwal Hassan, a resident, told? By phone, Auwal?Hassan told?ajungidankenzeug? by phone bytéphonesprachesprechsprach via phone. telefonisch Sokoto police spokesperson Ahmed Rufai confirmed that the police were investigating and would be providing?updates? later. The attack came a week after bandits killed?at least 24 farmers in the neighbouring state of Zamfara. (Reporting and writing by Ahmed Kingimi; Editing by Andrew Heavens).
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Holcim sells Philippines unit to Huaxin for $807 million
Holcim Group, a Swiss building materials company, announced on Sunday that it intends to sell its Philippines operations to Huaxin Building Materials of China in a deal worth at least $807,000,000. Holcim is selling an initial 68% stake at $527 million. The remainder will be sold in the following three to five year period for a price minimum of $280million. Holcim stated that this would result in an overall valuation $807 million. However, the figure may rise "based upon incremental value creation over?this time period". This sale is Holcim's largest divestment, since the $1 billion deal it made with Huaxin Cement in December 2024, when they sold their Nigeria business. The money raised from the sale of the Philippines' business will be used for large acquisitions as well as?further investments in Holcim’s existing business. The 'Swiss firm has focused more on Europe and Latin America as well as North Africa and Australia in its reshaping of its business. Holcim has identified acquisitions as an important part of its growth strategy. The company plans to make 15 deals by 2026. Holcim said last year that it had between $3.72 billion and $4.95 billion Swiss Francs to spend on acquisitions until 2030. It could also raise an additional?6 billion Swiss Francs through divestments, extra borrowings for large deals, and share buybacks. Holcim CEO Miljan Gutovic said on Friday that the company has a "very strong pipeline" of projects for acquisitions in Latin America, Europe, as well as parts of Asia, Middle East, and Africa. He also stated that they were considering large deals. He said that the company was constantly evaluating its landscape from walling, flooring and roofing solution companies to the larger markets. Gutovic said: "I am confident that we will have a powerful momentum on the M&A side in the second half this year."
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Israeli strikes kill 9 in Gaza; Israeli minister says there is no deal to stop attacks
Israeli airstrikes in Gaza continued for a second day in a row on Sunday. At least nine Palestinians were killed, despite U.S. president Donald Trump's?announcement that a breakthrough had been made in efforts to implement the Gaza ceasefire accord of last year. Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen stated on Sunday that no agreement had been reached to stop the attacks on Gaza. He also said that Israel, which controls over 70% of Gaza, should take control of Gaza in its entirety. Cohen is a minister in the security cabinet of Prime Minister Netanyahu, a group of ministers who oversee security and diplomatic policies. Palestinian health officials confirmed that Israeli warplanes conducted separate strikes in different parts of the Gaza City enclave, including the central city of Deir al-Balah and the southern area Khan Younis. According to medics, a man and his spouse were killed, and four others were injured, in an airstrike that hit an apartment in Deir al-Balah. Two more people including a child were also killed in another strike in Gaza City. Around dawn, a father, mother and their nine-year-old child were killed after a strike was made on a home in the Mawasi neighborhood of Khan Younis. A second person was also killed in northern Gaza, near Jabalia. Israeli military claimed that the attacks in Deir al-Balah targeted two Hamas commanders from its elite "Nukhba force". The Gaza City and Jabalia attacks also targeted "military operators" but the military said it was still reviewing the situation. Since the ceasefire in October, Israeli airstrikes have killed at least 1,230 Palestinians. Trump said that there was a breakthrough on Thursday after Hamas agreed disarming under an initiative backed by the United States to implement a ceasefire agreement signed last year in Egypt. Trump's Board of Peace is the U.S. body that oversees the ceasefire. They published a 15 point roadmap on Friday, outlining the final steps to implement the agreement. ROADMAP YET TO BE ?IMPLEMENTED The roadmap is still not implemented. Hamas said that it would only hand over weapons to be stored after Israel ceases military operations, and withdraws its troops in accordance with the agreement of last year. A senior Israeli official said that the military would not be able to leave its current positions until Hamas underwent "genuine dearmament". Cohen, speaking to Army Radio, said he didn't believe that Hamas would disarm but rather try and hide its weapons. Itamar Bin-Gvir, the National Security Minister of Israel, has described it as 'inacceptable' and stated that Israel should continue to assassinate Hamas leaders. Mohammed Dahlan, a former senior Fatah official based in the United Arab Emirates said on Facebook that Jared Kushner was Trump's son in law and a senior advisor involved in the U.S. Initiative. He had told him Jared Kushner would be working with the Israeli side in order to stop the attacks against Gaza. Dahlan said that contacts were being maintained with the U.S. to ensure the agreement is fully implemented. He added that the success of the agreement now depends on Israel ending its daily attacks against Gaza. The U.S. State Department has been contacted for comment regarding Dahlan's remarks. Israel did not immediately comment. Reporting by Nidal al-Mughrabi in Cairo, Hatem Maher and Steven Scheer. Editing by Rod Nickel & Alex Richardson
Gold prices rise as oil prices fall after Trump delays Iran attack
Gold prices rose on Monday as oil prices dropped after U.S. President Donald Trump held back on announcing new attacks against Iran, hoping for a quick deal. This helped ease concerns about inflation and rising interest rates.
As of 0210 GMT, spot gold was up 0.4% to $4,055.76 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.9% to $4054.00.
After authorities intervened on the foreign exchange markets to support the yen and make dollar-priced gold more affordable for overseas purchasers, the U.S. Dollar was under pressure.
Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that gold has had a positive but cautious start to the week.
Trump confirmed that he would be holding a?meeting with Iran on Monday, but refused to give a timeframe for a?agreement. Oil prices dropped more than 5%.
Since the beginning of the U.S. - Iran conflict, gold has been under pressure as a rise in inflation caused by war could lead central banks to increase interest rates. While bullion has traditionally been viewed as an inflation hedge, its appeal is diminished in an environment of high interest rates because it doesn't yield any interest.
Three U.S. Federal Reserve representatives who dissented last week at the policy meeting in favor of a rate increase expressed concern on Friday that inflation would remain above the Fed's target of 2% without an immediate rise in short-term borrowing costs.
Participants in the market will also be focusing on a number of U.S. job reports that are due this week. These include the ADP Employment Report, weekly claims for unemployment and the non-farm payrolls.
"A sustained rise would require a drop in oil prices, a weaker dollar or a change in Fed expectations towards a more dovish position. Waterer said that the downside could be a renewed Middle East escalation that would push oil prices higher or a strong NFP report that reinforces the September rate-hike chances.
Spot silver rose 0.9% to $58.13, while platinum increased 0.5% to 1,649.35 and palladium climbed 1.7% to $2,294.92.
(source: Reuters)