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Oil on Middle East conflict while AI bulls drive stocks higher
The dollar was 'on the verge of breaking through the 160 yen mark as new hostilities erupted in the Gulf following the failure of the U.S. - Iran peace?talks. Brent crude futures increased 1% to $94.74 per barrel. The dollar reached 160 yen and then paused as traders became cautious of possible Japanese intervention at that level. S&P futures were flat, and European futures fell 0.1%. However, the AI bull-run continued unabated in Asia where stock indexes reached record highs in Taiwan, Japan, and Korea. South Korean markets are closed. The U.S. Military said Iranian missile attacks against Bahrain, Kuwait, and other regional targets either failed or were thwarted as diplomacy with Washington and Tehran did not make much progress. Iran and the United States announced last week that they reached a tentative agreement to end the war. However, the two sides are yet to sign anything. Chris Weston is the head of research for Pepperstone Brokerage in Melbourne. He said that last week, the market was high on the belief of a MOU. Things are looking more precarious now. It seems that some people are returning to the table to negotiate with a smaller scope. I believe that we're now seeing some bets unwound. Cryptocurrencies fell,? weighed down by the selling of bitcoins at large holders and speculation that investors were selling in order to raise cash for SpaceX's upcoming?listing next week. Bitcoin has dropped nearly 10% over the last three sessions and reached a low of $66,123, a level not seen in two months. A source familiar with this matter says that SpaceX is planning to raise $75 billion through a massive initial public offering. The artificial intelligence theme in the tech sector seems immune to war concerns, and Wall Street indexes made small gains on Monday, led by AI. Marvell Technology shares soared by 32.5%, reaching a new record high, after Nvidia boss Jensen Huang referred to the chipmaker as the next trillion-dollar company. SoftBank, the tech investor, has surpassed Toyota in Japan as the most valuable company. On Wednesday, memory manufacturer Kioxia temporarily pushed Toyota, the top-ranked carmaker for decades, to third place. US LABOUR DATA IN CENTRAL FOCUS The benchmark yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury was 4.46% on Wednesday, after bond prices had risen through Tuesday. Overnight data showed that U.S. jobs openings in April increased the most since 2005, showing a robust job market. It also shows that the economy doesn't need lower rates. On Wednesday, the U.S. ISM services and private payrolls numbers are due. The labour market data is on Friday. Peter Dragicevich is Asia-Pacific currency analyst at payments firm Corpay. He said that the U.S. employment report could exceed the downbeat forecasts. If this is realized, we believe that it may strengthen the USD's view that the U.S. Fed will raise interest rates in the future. The markets, which had expected rate cuts prior to the Iran War, have now priced in 18 basis points worth of rate increases for this year. A hike in Europe is almost fully priced-in following data that showed inflation increased further last month. Traders see about a 75 percent chance of an increase in Japan in June. The foreign exchange market was largely stable, with the dollar at 159.86 yen and the euro at 1.1627. Reporting by Tom Westbrook, Editing by Neil Fullick, Shri Navaratnam
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Marvelll is a suitable name for the newest AI darling
Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the markets will be like tomorrow in Europe and globally. AI shares drove Asian equity markets to new records on Wednesday, despite fresh hostilities across the Middle East. Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia and AI kingmaker, has announced that Marvell Technology, a chipmaker with a superhero-sounding name is the next trillion dollar company. This announcement sent its stock price higher than 30%. Market cap of $254bn is far from $1trillion, but peers are closing the gap at a rapid pace. In the past year, SK Hynix and Micron had barely $100 billion in market value. Now they are worth over $1 trillion. Kioxia, a maker of memory chips, briefly became Japan's second most valuable company on Wednesday behind SoftBank. It displaced the long-time No.1 Toyota. Toyota is now ranked third. According to a source with knowledge of the matter, Elon Musk’s?SpaceX is planning to set its IPO at $135 per stock to raise a record $75 billion. On Wednesday, the yen teetered into the red zone of intervention, reaching the 160 per dollar level, which is viewed as "around the red line" for the authorities. Gulf hostilities flared up again, with the U.S. Military stating that Iranian missile attacks against Bahrain, Kuwait, and 'other regional targets' were either thwarted, or failed. Diplomacy between Washington and Tehran showed little progress. The price of oil rose by about $1 per barrel. Private payrolls, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book of Economic Conditions and the U.S. Services ISM are due later in today. The U.S. Labour data is due on Friday. The figures released on Tuesday show that the number of job openings in April was at its highest level in five years. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Wednesday. - Economics: U.S. services ISM, ADP Payrolls, Fed beige book - Iran war developments
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PMI: UAE non-oil businesses grow in May, but the war and Hormuz standoff are weighing on growth.
A business survey released on Wednesday showed that the UAE's private non-oil sector grew only modestly in May, as the war in the area weighed on the output and growth of new businesses. The S&P Global UAE Purchasing Managers' Index, adjusted for season, rose from 52.1 to 52.6 in the month of May. This index is still above 50 which separates growth from contraction. The continued disruption of maritime trade in the UAE had a cascading effect on the economy during May. Export orders fell in May due to both the shipping disruption and the uncertainty about how long the conflict would last, said David Owen, S&P Global Market Intelligence's principal economist. Owen stated that the input?delivery delays were the most significant since the COVID-19 Pandemic peak in April 2020. The survey's average long-term growth rate was still weaker, but the output growth reached a new high in three months. The growth in new business was also modest, and close to the 62-month low of April. Export sales were down again, but at a much slower pace. The subindex of new orders increased to 52.6 from 52.5 in April. The pace of job creation slowed to its lowest level since October 2025, and the cost pressures were still high due to a rise in material and transportation costs. Surveyed businesses were optimistic about the outlook for the next year. UAE's non oil GDP increased 6.8% from a year ago in 2025, outpacing the overall GDP growth of?6.2%. Dubai, the tourism and business center of the UAE, saw its headline PMI rise to 52 from 51.6. However, output growth has slowed down to its lowest level since June 2021.
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PMI data shows that Saudi Arabia's non-oil private industry activity reached a three-month peak in May.
A survey on Wednesday showed that the non-oil sector in Saudi Arabia expanded at its fastest pace in three month in May as domestic demand improved. Supply chains also stabilised. However, business optimism was still'subdued' due to conflict in the region. S&P Global's seasonally adjusted Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index rose from 51.5 to 52.8 in the month of May. The 50-mark?distinguishes growth from contraction. The output accelerated the most in three months after the March downturn that followed the start of the Iran War.?Firms cited normalising work conditions, renewed contracts, and stronger local demand. The subindex of new orders?rose modestly in May to 52.0 from 51.5 in April, and remained below the long-term trend. Exports fell for the third consecutive month due to geopolitical tensions, increased fuel and freight costs, and disruptions in shipping. The decline was only marginally slower than the survey record contraction in April. The supply chain improved as well, with the delivery time of suppliers decreasing for the first three months, due to firms relying more on local vendors. Backlogs of work increased for the 11th consecutive time, but only moderately. Naif Al Ghaith is the Riyad Bank’s chief economist. He said, "Overall the latest PMI reading supports the expectation that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economic will continue its upward trend throughout the rest of 2026." The business optimism was'muted', with many companies hopeful of a recovery in the market this year, but wary of inflation and geopolitical tensions. (Reporting and editing by Hugh Lawson; Staff Reporting)
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Gold remains stable amid Middle East tensions and US economic data is in focus
As 'investors' watched for a?development?in the Middle East, amid increasing inflation fears, and awaited US economic data to be released on Thursday, gold prices held steady. Gold spot was unchanged at $4485.17 an ounce as of 0319 GMT after rising by over 1% the previous session. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 0.1% to $4,513.60. The market is now looking at the possibility that Trump will push for a resolution to a peace agreement, even though Trump wants to see a ceasefire with Iran. Kelvin Wong said. If we see a further increase in the price of gold, it could dampen any recovery that might have occurred. The Gulf hostilities erupted again on Wednesday. According to the U.S. Military, Iranian missile attacks against Bahrain, Kuwait and other regional targets have either been thwarted, or failed. U.S. Secretary of state Marco Rubio stated on Tuesday that the negotiating team of President Donald Trump has not offered Iran relief from sanctions in exchange for reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He also insisted that any relief of sanctions was linked to Tehran?giving up its nuke programme. Early Wednesday morning, oil prices increased by more than 1%, causing concern over inflation and rate hikes. Gold is often viewed as an inflation hedge, but it tends to lose its appeal when interest rates are high. Beth Hammack, the Cleveland Federal Reserve president, said on Tuesday that the U.S. Central Bank may have to raise interest rates in the near future if inflation pressures already high continue to increase. Investors will now be awaiting U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Data, which is due later today, and the Employment Report due on Friday to gauge the Fed’s monetary policies. Silver spot fell by 0.1%, to $75.01 an ounce. Platinum lost 0.2%, to $1.933.15, and palladium rose 0.2%, to $1.372.25. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu, Ronojoy Mazumdar, and Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
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Copper falls from two-week highs as investors pause following rally
Copper prices fell on Wednesday, as investors locked-in profits after the metal reached a two week high. However, uncertainty around a U.S. Tariff on the metal limited losses. As of 0245 GMT, the benchmark three-month price for copper at the London Metal Exchange fell?0.43%. It was $13,980.50 per metric ton. It?touched an over two-week-high and surged beyond the $14,000 mark on Tuesday. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most active copper contract gained 0.78%, to 106 820 yuan (15 785.90 dollars) per ton. This is lower than the evening trading high of 107.420 yuan, which was set three weeks ago. As the June 30 deadline nears, traders said that prices continue to be supported by uncertainty regarding U.S. Copper Tariffs. The U.S. Commerce Secretary is expected to give President Donald Trump an update by June 30 on the domestic copper market, including refined copper, and refining capacities. Trump signed a Proclamation last week,?amending the tariffs on certain steel, aluminum and copper imports. However, traders claimed that these changes had a little direct impact on refined copper. This move, however, kept the tariff risk front and center for a market already distorted due to expectations of U.S. actions. The LME's tightening supply also boosted sentiment. A widening premium for Comex copper over that of the LME increased the risk of dislocation. The LME Cash-to-three Month Copper Discount The price of a ton dropped to $4 on June 3, down from $77 on the 19th, while the number of cancelled warrants increased. This suggests that more metal was being prepared to be withdrawn. As diplomacy between Iran and the U.S. failed to make any progress, and as the Strait of Hormuz was still closed, fresh hostilities in Middle East were a growing concern. A stronger-than-expected U.S. job openings reading also weighed on metals, supporting ?the dollar and reducing expectations of near-term U.S. rate cuts. On the LME, aluminium was down by 0.05%, while zinc slipped 0.19%. Lead fell 0.32%. Nickel lost?0.64%. Tin was also down?0.20%. Aluminium gained 0.22% on SHFE. Zinc rose 1.27%. Lead grew 0.24%. Nickel lost 0.98%. Tin climbed 1.39%.
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Cambodia uses obscure UN processes to resolve maritime dispute between Thailand and Cambodia
Cambodia has been relying on the little-used UN arbitration procedure known as "compulsory reconciliation" to settle a long-running maritime border dispute with Thailand. It is hoping that this will resolve the dispute and allow it to unlock potential oil and natural gas resources worth billions of dollars. What is the CAMBODIA - Thailand dispute about? Since more than 25 years, Cambodia and Thailand both claim about 26,000 square kilometers of?sea? in the Gulf of Thailand. It is estimated that the disputed maritime belt contains nearly 12 trillion cubic foot of natural gas, and large quantities oil worth about $300 billion. In 2001, the Southeast Asian neighbors signed a pact to create a framework for jointly exploiting the energy resources of the "overlapping claims zone". Thailand's government unilaterally ended the agreement with Cambodia last month, fulfilling an election promise made by Thai PM Anutin Charnvirakul. This was after two deadly rounds of conflict along a disputed border in last year. WHAT IS COMPULSORY conciliation? The Cambodian government announced on Tuesday that it has launched a mandatory conciliation process in accordance with the UN Convention on the Laws of the Sea. A compulsory conciliation is an alternative dispute resolution method that can be initiated by any signatory of the convention against another. The Conciliation Commission is a group of five members that each country nominates two conciliators to. The commission will investigate the facts and legal position of each country to provide a set non-binding recommendation, which is also sent to the UN Secretary General in a separate report. Has it been used before? East Timor (also known as Timor Leste) has been the only country to use this UN-backed mechanism in order to resolve a long-standing maritime dispute with Australia. East Timor officially started the process by sending a notification to Australia on April 11, 2016. Australia agreed a few weeks later to join the process. Early March 2018, after less than two years' worth of negotiations, two countries signed an agreement on maritime boundaries at the UN Headquarters, in front of the UN chief. What is next in the process? The Cambodian Foreign Minister, Prak Sokhonn has been delegated to act as the country's?agent in the proceedings. Peter Taksoe-Jensen, a Danish diplomat, and Jean-Marc Thouvenin, a French academic, have also been appointed to the Conciliation Commission. Taksoe Jensen was the chair of the commission which conducted the negotiations between East Timor, Australia and the Danish diplomat Peter Taksoe Jensen. According to a statement from the Cambodian government, Thailand has 21 calendar days to name its?conciliators. If they fail to do so, Cambodia may request that the UN Secretary-General appoints them in Bangkok's place. Anutin, Thailand's Anutin, said that he did not know that Cambodia had initiated the mandatory conciliation process. He added that his government would use UNCLOS principles for its next actions. He told reporters that Thailand hasn't yet decided when it will move forward. The commission must choose a chairperson in 30 days after four members are appointed. (Reporting and editing by Josh Smith, Kate Mayberry and DevjyotGhoshal)
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Iron ore prices fall due to a weak steel market and dwindling margins
Iron ore fell on Wednesday due to a thinning of steel margins and a seasonal decline in demand from the top consumer, China. As of 0309 GMT, the most-traded contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange dropped 0.57%, to 780 yuan ($115.27), per metric ton. As of 0259 GMT, the benchmark July iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange fell 1.22% and was at its lowest level since April 15, $103.95 per ton. In a post on WeChat late Tuesday, the steel association, a state-backed organization, said that the steel market had entered its traditionally low demand season sooner than usual. Rain and high temperatures can limit outdoor construction, reducing the demand for steel. "Downstream consumption of steel has been hit as the buying appetite has declined, putting pressure on?steel prices and feedstocks," said Xin?Ge, deputy director at consultancy Lange Steel. Steelmakers should prioritize controlling production, lowering inventories, and reducing the mismatch between supply and demand. Ge Lange, Lange's Ge, said that the rising price of coal after the mine disaster has impacted on steel margins and reduced interest in buying feedstocks. Prices of iron ores rose on Tuesday after the state buyer, China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), told domestic steelmakers to avoid negotiating with Australia's Fortescue over a new product. This triggered speculation about a potential ban?on purchases. Analysts and traders have downplayed any immediate impact on the price. Coke and coking coal, two other steelmaking ingredients, traded in a mixed manner. Prices of coking coal have increased by 16% since the mine accident that killed a number of miners in late May. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mostly lower. The rebar price fell 0.06%. Hot-rolled coils dropped 0.15%. Wire rods dropped 0.41%. Stainless steel rose 0.2%. $1 = 6.7666 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Ronojoya Mazumdar in Beijing, Amy Lv reporting from Shanghai)
The price of gold eases due to Middle East tensions, which lift oil prices and US economic data.
As renewed hostilities?in?the Middle East pushed?oil?prices higher, and stalled U.S.Iran talks, investors awaited upcoming U.S.economic data.
After a rise of more than 1% the previous session, spot gold dropped 0.3%, to $4,471.38 an ounce, by 0511 GMT. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 0.5% to $4499.30.
The market is examining the possibility that Trump will not push for a resolution to the peace deal with Iran, said Kelvin Wong.
"If we see further escalation that could dampen any recovery that gold may have had."
Gulf 'hostilities' flared up again on Wednesday. The U.S. Military said that Iranian missile attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, and other regional targets had either been thwarted, or failed. Diplomacy between Washington, and Tehran, showed little progress.
U.S. Secretary of state Marco Rubio stated on Tuesday that the negotiating team of President Donald Trump has not offered Iran relief from sanctions in exchange for the reopening of Strait of Hormuz. He also insisted that any relief of sanctions was linked to Tehran's nuclear programme.
Worries about inflation and interest rate hikes grew as oil prices jumped more than 1% Wednesday.
Gold is often viewed as an inflation hedge, but it can lose its appeal when interest rates are high.
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack said Tuesday that the U.S. Central bank might need to raise interest rates in the near future if inflation pressures keep rising.
Investors will now be assessing the Fed's monetary policies based on the nonfarm payroll data due in the U.S. later today and the employment report due Friday.
Silver spot fell by 0.4%, to $74.82 an ounce. Platinum lost 0.5%, to $1,927.25, and palladium remained at $1,369.64. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu, Ronojoy Mazumdar and Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)