How Trump's Venezuela embargo could put Taiwan at risk

Donald Trump's decision imposing a partial Venezuelan blockade marks a dramatic increase in U.S. political pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. But it could also undermine a key U.S. goal: deterring an eventual Chinese naval encirclement.

The U.S. President on Tuesday ordered a "total and complete blockade" against all sanctioned oil tanks entering or leaving Venezuela. This was a move to choke off the main source of revenue for the Maduro regime. The action immediately raised questions about its legal status under international law.

Military planners in the Indo-Pacific have feared for years that China could use a blockade of Taiwan's ports to force it to accept Beijing’s rule.

Experts say that while China considers Taiwan to be its own territory, it would not rely on international law as a justification for military action in Taiwan Strait. Instead, Beijing could use the U.S. embargo of Venezuela to undermine any American efforts to raise international diplomatic opposition.

"If U.S. sanctions change the political outcome in Venezuela, China could justify coercive actions against Taiwan based on alleged security grounds," said Craig Singleton a China specialist at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, Washington.

He said that while the legal contexts are different, the propaganda opening was real. He added that narrative is also a precedent in international relations, not just law.

He said that when Washington uses ambiguous terms, this weakens the ability of its critics to denounce?coercion' elsewhere.

The blockade was the latest in a series of military actions by the U.S. that included over two dozen airstrikes on suspected drug boats. This was done to put pressure on Maduro and senior Venezuelan officials who, according to the Trump administration, are linked with drug traffickers.

Maduro claims that the U.S. is trying to overthrow him and gain control of the OPEC nation’s oil reserves, which are among the largest in the world.

A White House official responded to questions by saying that President Trump was prepared to use all of the American power available to stop drugs flooding our country, and bring those responsible to justice. The official did not address Taiwan.

China, the largest buyer of Venezuelan oil, has taken a stand in support of Venezuela. It said on Thursday that "it opposes unilateralism and bullying, and supports countries defending their sovereignty and national dignity."

CHINA PRACTICES BLOCKADES

Beijing has signaled repeatedly that a naval blockade de facto could be the central element in a campaign for control of Taiwan.

China's military has been practicing blockade drills around the island more and more in recent years, even though its government denies Beijing's claims of sovereignty.

Chinese officials will probably present such a move as an act of domestic law enforcement or quarantine to international audiences. Beijing denies any comparisons between Taiwan and Ukraine, which is fighting a Russian invasion.

Taiwanese officials, however, have stated that a Chinese blockade would be an act war and would have far-reaching implications for international trade.

Washington, which has opposed unilateral changes in the status quo regarding Taiwan for many years, would argue that a Chinese naval encirclement would be akin to a blocking.

In its national security strategy, released in early December by the?Trump Administration, deterring a conflict over Taiwan was deemed a top priority because of its strategic location and importance economically.

Isaac Kardon is a senior fellow of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who studies China's naval power. He said Beijing would try to stop the U.S. building a coalition against Chinese actions toward Taiwan. China could benefit from international concern about a U.S.-led blockade on Venezuela.

Kardon stated that "the U.S. has done a great deal of damage to the normative nature of the rules." This is a serious blow to the credibility and ability of international law to constrain other actors.

Kardon stated that the U.S. actions against Venezuelan tankers may open up China's door to similar actions such as intercepting vessels bound for Taiwan carrying vital natural gas supplies.

He said, "Everything about this muddies the water."

Experts have warned that a prolonged deployment of U.S. Naval assets to the Caribbean could also undermine the military readiness of the United States and its ability respond to a crisis on the Taiwan Strait.

'REALPOLITIK'

International law allows for wartime blockades, but only if they are accompanied by strict conditions.

Milena Sterio is a maritime expert at the law school of Cleveland State University. She said that a complete U.S. ban on Venezuela would be illegal unless there was clear evidence the U.S. were in an armed conflict with Venezuela.

Sterio stated that a U.S. Blockade would make it difficult for us to criticize the Chinese blockade against Taiwan. Sterio said that "the same rules of international laws apply to all countries and it would not be consistent for the U.S. criticize other states for doing what we do."

Michael Hunzeker is an expert in Taiwan's deterrence military at George Mason University. He said that he did not believe that Trump's actions will hurt the real effort: building U.S. allies' support for counterblockade efforts during a crisis about Taiwan.

Hunzeker explained that any reference to Venezuela by allies in this context would be a rhetorical justification of a realpolitik choice to stay on the sidelines.

He said: "I doubt this episode will have a significant impact on how they view these interests." (Reporting and editing by Don Durfee, Diane Craft and Don Durfee; Additional reporting and editing by Michelle Nichols, Tom Hals and Michael Martina)

(source: Reuters)