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Nepal rations cooking gas in panic over shortage
An official said on Thursday that Nepal would begin rationing cooking gas due to fears of a possible nationwide shortage caused by the Middle East conflict. Chandika Bhatta, executive Director of the state-run Nepal Oil Corporation said that authorities will only refill half of empty cylinders of consumers starting Friday in order to extend the life of its liquefied petrol gas (LPG). The shortage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is due to the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, and Tehran's response across the region. This has effectively stopped shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Bhatta said that despite assurances from Nepal that there were enough LPG supplies, consumers are panicking. Bhatta said that rationing would end the rush to hoard and panic. Long queues of consumers with empty cylinders formed outside the?refilling facilities throughout the country. The country is totally?dependent upon?India to supply its fuel supplies, including cooking gas. Officials stated that Nepal requires about 45,000 cylinders containing 14.2 kg of cooking gases every month. There was no disruption in supply. Bhatta stated, "We get regular supplies of fuel including cooking gas in accordance with our needs."
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After attacks on Gulf shipping and Iran warning, oil prices jump, shares fall
Global stocks fell on Thursday, as the attacks on oil tankers and the warning from Iran undermined the prospects for an imminent deescalation of the Middle East conflict. Oil prices briefly rose above $100 per barrel and inflation fears were stoked. The'reaction' shows how quickly bets placed on an early end to the 'war which gained momentum earlier in the week are being unwound. The contradictory messages of U.S. president Donald Trump has left traders fearful that they will be caught off guard, causing them to stay away from the markets or find refuge in safe havens. Wall Street stock indexes fell. Early trading saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall 1.26%. The S&P 500 fell 0.82%. And the Nasdaq composite lost 0.77%. The STOXX 600 index, which is a pan-European benchmark for equity prices, fell by 0.5%. The MSCI All-World Index fell by nearly 1%. Investors were not satisfied with the International Energy Agency’s announcement on Wednesday that it would release 400,000,000 barrels of oil from its reserves. This was the largest move in its history. Brent crude futures rose as high as 10.4%, to $101.59 per barrel, before trimming gains as concerns remained over whether the release of reserves would be sufficient to cushion the blow from the Middle East shock. Brent crude was last around $99 per barrel, with U.S. crude futures trading at $93.87. This is 7.6% more than the previous day. "Even though the reserves may be large, it is not known how quickly they will reach markets. Joel Hancock is an energy analyst with Natixis CIB. He said that a market that's balanced by strategic stock releases will be "far less logistically efficient". Attacks on Oil Shipments Continue Iraqi officials reported that two fuel tanks were hit by explosive-laden Iranian boats in Iraqi waters early on Thursday morning. An Iraqi official also told the state media their oil ports had "completely halted operations." Bloomberg News reported Oman had evacuated its main oil export terminal, Mina Al Fahal, as a precautionary move. Rodrigo Catril is a senior FX Strategist at NAB. He said, "The market continues to be very concerned about what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz and the information we have received over the past 24 hours does not make for a good read." It reemphasizes that we should be concerned about this, and that the oil prices are likely to go up from here instead of going down. Iran increased its attacks against merchant ships in Strait of Hormuz. Since the start of the fighting, at least 16 ships have been hit in this region. Tehran has warned the world that oil will soon be priced at $200 per barrel. Inflation Risks The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in February, according to data released on Wednesday. This was above the 0.2% rise seen in January. However, the report was not considered particularly relevant, given that inflation has been fueled by the Iran War. Globally, bond yields rose as the inflation risk outweighed any concerns about safe havens. The yields on 10-year Treasury bills rose by 4.3 basis points on Thursday to 4.206%, after a 7-bps jump overnight. Fed?funds Futures continued to fall as investors worried that higher inflation would make the Federal Reserve's policy more difficult. The markets are betting that the Fed will only make one rate cut this year. The markets speculate that the European Central Bank's next rate move could come as soon as June, due to the threat of energy-driven inflation. Investors on edge sought out the dollar's liquidity, while shunning currencies of countries which are net energy consumers. This includes Japan and most of Europe. The euro fell 0.3% to $1.153. The dollar was slightly higher at 158.96 Japanese yen. (Reporting from Lawrence Delevingne, Niket Nishant, and Stella Qiu, in Boston; editing by Susan Fenton and Keith Weir, and Mark Potter).
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The revenue from Russia's biggest oil tax is expected to double in March due to the global price rise
Calculations showed that the proceeds from Russia's mineral extract tax, which is its largest tax item for crude oil production and the country's?largest taxable item, could almost double in March due to the global price rally induced by the conflict in the Middle East. The global oil benchmarks soared to $119 per barrel on Monday, the highest level since June 2022. This was due to supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and others producers, which stoked fears of a major disruption to global supplies. The price increase of crude oil, along with the natural gas that it produces, will benefit Russia's state budget. Calculations show that the mineral tax on oil could bring in 590 billion rubles ($7.43billion) this month, if prices stay at current levels. This is up from an estimated?300 billion last month, and 314 billion in January. Oil prices rose sharply on Thursday as Iran intensified its attacks against?oil? and transport? facilities in the Middle East. This fueled fears of a long-term conflict and possible disruptions of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures rose $6.41 or 7% to $98.45 per barrel at 1235 GMT, after hitting $100 per barrel in earlier trading. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude was up by $5.98 or 6.85% to $93.23.
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Russell: Crude oil futures are not in line with reality, as the Asia physical market collapses.
Crude oil futures prices'reflect a view of the market that it can successfully navigate through the Iran War, while the prices for physical cargoes or refined products signal an imminent crisis. One of these signals is not the case in the paper oil market. Brent crude futures for the global benchmark ended Wednesday at $91.98 per barrel, an increase of 4.8% over the previous close, but down from the brief spike that occurred on March 9, when they reached $119.50 - the highest price in almost four years. On the physical market, on Wednesday the premium of a physical cargo containing Middle East benchmark Dubai oil over its paper counterpart rose to nearly $38 per barrel, the highest level since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The paper oil traders appear to be believing the rhetoric of U.S. president Donald Trump and certain members of his administration, that the campaign against Iran was going well and that there is no threat to oil and products shipments through Strait of Hormuz. The traders also seem to think that the International Energy Agency's record release of 400 million barrels from its stockpiles would help with some supply disruptions. The current problems cannot be resolved by political leaders' comments that are disconnected from reality. As long as the Strait of Hormuz is effectively blocked, the situation will only worsen and accelerate. It is particularly the case that Asia takes the majority of the 18 to 20 million barrels of crude oil and products per day (bpd), which flowed across the Strait before the U.S. launched an aerial campaign on Iran on February 28, 2008. System Breaking Prices for crude and refined products reflect the stress that is already being felt in Asia's supply chains. On Wednesday, the premium for a bar of cash Dubai crude compared to paper swaps rose $4.17, to $37.87, a new high not seen since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This event also sparked fears of an oil shortage as Western buyers stopped purchasing Moscow's crude. The main difference between the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the conflict in Iran today is that there was not a real shortage of oil in 2022. Instead, the flow of Russian crude was redirected to China and India. The current situation, however, is very different. Even the rerouting of crude oil exports from the Gulf into the Red Sea port of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates' facility in the Gulf of Oman are not enough to compensate for the effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure. The problem in Asia is not only the crude supply, but also the tightness of refined products. This is quickly becoming a major issue for countries like Australia, Indonesia, and New Zealand that import oil. Some refineries in Asia have cut processing rates, and others, like China, are limiting fuel exports to meet domestic demand. The price of refined products is rising, and the cash difference for diesel is increasing. Singapore hit a new record high of 28.69 dollars a barrel Wednesday. This price reflects a 'premium over paper prices for physical cargoes. It has risen from 84 cents per barrel on February 27th, the day before the U.S. and Israel attack Iran. Jet kerosene is a similar case. Spot prices reached a record high on March 4 of $225.44 per barrel, before falling to $157.12 on the following Wednesday. This price is still 68% higher than $93.45 on February 27. The physical crude markets and product prices in Asia indicate that the supply chain has 'buckled' and will only get worse as more countries begin to hoard fuel and crude. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Aluminum nears four-year peak on Middle East supply concerns
Aluminum prices reached their highest level in almost four years on Thursday, as fears of a tighter supply for 'Europe and other areas' grew. The Middle East conflict is disrupting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange increased 0.6% by 1111 GMT to $3,478.50 per metric ton after reaching $3,546.5. This was its highest level since late March 2022. The Middle East war has disrupted the deliveries of alumina and other raw materials to aluminium producers in the region. Norsk Hydro, a Norwegian company, announced on Thursday that its Qatalum aluminum smelter is in Qatar would stop the curtailment begun last week. Production will be maintained at 60% capacity with reduced gas supply. Hydro said it is working to minimize the effects of the curtailment. The rising price of oil is another concern for aluminum producers, as it can account for 40% to 45% in some areas of the cost to melt aluminium. International Energy Agency reported on Thursday that the war in the Middle East has caused the largest oil supply disruption ever. Alastair Muuro, senior base-metals strategist at broker Marex said that the current "short gamma" market profile contributed to the "scale of price movements in aluminium". This is a situation where option dealers sell during market declines, and buy during rallies. He added that "these option?shorts" are also contributing to the violent intraday swings. Copper fell 0.1% among other LME metals to $13,032 per ton. Munro stated that China, the world's largest metal consumer, "has not been active in the copper bid." Nickel added 0.1% and tin 0.8%. Zinc remained at $3,310.50. Lead rose by 0.4% to $2,943.50. Tin gained 0.8%, reaching $49,320. (Reporting and editing by Diti Pjara; Polina Devtt)
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After Gulf Shipping Attacks, oil prices and shares plummet
Attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf have shattered the prospects for an imminent deescalation of the Middle East conflict. Oil prices briefly rose above $100 per barrel, causing inflation fears to rise. The reaction shows 'how quickly bets placed on a quick end to the conflict, which gathered momentum earlier this week are being unraveled. The contradictory messages of U.S. president Donald Trump has left traders fearful that they will be caught off guard, causing them to stay away from the markets or find refuge in safe havens. Investors were not satisfied with the International Energy Agency’s announcement on Wednesday that it would release 400 million barrels from its oil reserves. This was the largest move of its kind in its history. Brent crude futures rose as high as 10.4%, to $101.59 per barrel, before retracing gains as concerns remained over whether the release of reserves would be enough to cushion the blow from the Middle East shock. U.S. Crude Futures traded last at $91,11, up 4.4%. "Even though the reserves may be large, it is not known how quickly they will?be delivered to the markets. Joel Hancock is an energy analyst with Natixis CIB. He said that a market balanced by strategic stock releases would be less efficient logistically. The STOXX 600 - the pan-European equity index – fell 0.4%. Futures for the S&P500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq100 in the U.S. both fell by 0.5%. The MSCI All-World Index fell by 0.3%. The odds on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, indicated a?25% probability of a truce between the U.S.A. and Iran before March 31. This is down from 45% earlier in the week. Attacks on Oil Shipments Continue Iraqi officials reported that two fuel tanks were hit by Iranian boats laden with explosives in Iraqi waters early Thursday morning. An Iraqi official also told state media the oil ports had "completely stopped operations." Bloomberg News reported Oman had evacuated its main oil export terminal, Mina Al Fahal, as a precautionary move. Rodrigo Catril is a senior FX Strategist at NAB. He said, "The market continues to be very concerned about what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz and the information we have received over the past 24 hours does not make for a good read." It reemphasizes that we should be concerned about this. And the risk is that oil prices will go up from here, rather than come down. Iran increased its attacks against merchant ships in Strait of Hormuz. Since the start of the fighting, at least 16 ships have been hit in this region. Iran has warned that oil will soon be priced at $200 per barrel. Inflation Risks The?U.S. consumer price index rose 0.3% in February, according to data released on Wednesday. This is above the 0.2% increase that was forecasted for January. The consumer price index increased 0.3% in February, which was above the 0.2% rise seen in January. However, the report was not considered particularly relevant, given that inflation has been fueled by the Iran War. Globally, bond yields rose as the threat of rising inflation outweighed concerns about safe havens. On Thursday, yields on 10-year Treasury bills rose by 2.4 basis points at 4.2296% after a 7-bps jump overnight. Fed funds futures continued to fall as investors worried that higher inflation could make it difficult for the Federal Reserve ease policy. Markets bet that the Fed will only cut rates by one more time this year. The markets have speculated that the next rate increase from the European Central Bank may come as soon as June. Investors on edge sought out the dollar's liquidity, while shunning currencies of countries which are net energy consumers. This includes Japan and most of Europe. The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1558. The dollar gained 158.68 Japanese yen. (Reporting and editing by Stella Qiu, Niket Nishant, Edwina Gibbs and Shri Navaratnam; Susan Fenton, Keith Weir, Edwina Gibson and Keith Weir).
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Poland claims that the cyber attack on a nuclear centre foiled by Poland may have been from Iran
The government of Poland announced on Thursday that it had foiled a cyberattack against its nuclear research centre. It is now examining possible signs that Iran may be responsible. Poland claims it has been the victim of many cyberattacks ever since Russia invaded Ukraine on a large scale in 2022. Moscow has denied any involvement. Krzysztof GAWKOWSKI, Minister of Digital Affairs at TVN24+, said that the attack against Poland's National Center for Nuclear Research had taken place "in recent days". "The attack was not on a large scale, but it was an attempt at breaking through security that was stopped. Gawkowski added that "appropriate services" were already in place and the centre was safe. The first thing that he did was to identify the entry points, which he called "vectors". "The places where (the centre was attacked) are connected to Iran," he stated. When the final information is available and the services have checked it, we'll verify it. But there are many signs that it took place in Iran. The Iranian Embassy in Warsaw has not responded to an email request for comment. The centre conducts research in?nuclear power,?subatomic science and related fields. Poland does not have nuclear weapons, but is building its nuclear power plant. On February 28, the U.S., Israel and other countries launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran. The Supreme Leader of Iran was killed in these strikes: Ayatollah Khamenei. Tehran responded by striking?Israel and Gulf States?hosting U.S. Military installations, effectively stopping?oil-and-gas shipments through Strait of Hormuz – a conduit that carries roughly a 5th of the world’s LNG and petroleum.
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German economy recovery will only be slightly slowed by the Iran war, according to economists
Three institutes said on Thursday that Germany's economy will only slow a little this year, as long as the energy prices pushed up by?the Iran War?reduce in the months to come. According to its December forecast, the Ifo Institute expects an economic growth of 0.8% in this year. This is based on the assumption that oil prices and gas will only remain high in the short-term. It expects German economic growth to accelerate to 1.2% in next year. The biggest economy in Europe expanded for the first time in three year in 2025, increasing by 0.2% as consumer confidence improved. This was aided by an increase in government spending. RESTORATION AFTER SHOCK Timo Wollmershaeuser is Ifo's head of forecasts. He said that despite the energy price shock the recovery in Germany will likely continue this year. He cited increased government spending on infrastructure and carbon neutrality as stimulants for demand. Ifo predicted that the forecast for 2026 would have been 1.0% higher without the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. The institute stated that if gas and oil prices continue to rise, Germany's GDP will only grow by 0.6% in 2026, as the inflation rate is expected to reach a peak of just below 3%. This effect would continue into 2027 with a growth rate of only 0.8%. Short-term rise in commodity prices IfW institute has lowered their December 2026 forecast by 0.2%, to 0.8%. They assume that commodity prices are likely to remain high for only a few months. IfW has raised its growth forecast for the next year from 1.3% to 1.4%. The RWI Institute revised its forecasts for this year down by 0.1 percentage points, to 0.9%. It also lowered its outlook for 2027 by?0.2 percentage points, to 1.2%. Torsten Schmidt, RWI's forecasting chief, said that the Iran war "demonstrates how vulnerable Germany remains due to its energy dependence." All three institutions expect inflation to rise by at least 2.5% in this year, before it eases again in 2027. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Seythal, Susan Fenton, and Miranda Murray)
South Korea will cap fuel prices starting Friday in order to ease consumer burden
South Korea announced on Thursday that it would cap the domestic fuel prices starting Friday in order to combat an increase in energy costs resulting from the conflict?in the Middle East.
South Korea, Asia's fourth largest economy and a country that relies on imported energy for its needs, is making this move to try to mitigate the impact of the Middle East oil crisis.
South Korea has set the maximum wholesale gasoline price at $1.17 per liter. This is below Wednesday's 1,833 won. The price will be adjusted every two weeks in order to reflect the changes in oil prices.
The government will introduce a'maximum price' system for petroleum products in order to reduce the?burden to consumers, and to firmly resist attempts to use the crisis as an excuse to raise prices. Finance Minister Koo Yon-cheol stated that.
The government stated that the maximum price will be determined by comparing pre-crisis supply prices with global oil prices and taxes.
South Korea imports most of its energy. According to Korea International Trade Association data, it buys 70% of its oil from the Middle East and 20% of its LNG.
According to the finance ministry, South Korea will also limit the stockpiling petroleum products. Refiners must?release at minimum 90% of the monthly volumes?of petroleum product they released in April and March a year ago.
The government has said it will offer financial support to refiners who report losses due to the price cap.
(source: Reuters)