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Russell: It's not about altruism, but economics that's driving China's crude imports to slump.

China's seaborne crude oil imports fell to their lowest level in nearly 10 years in May as a result of the Iran War, which led to a dramatic restructuring of operations at the world's largest?oil exporter.

According to Kpler, the data collected by commodity analysts shows that seaborne crude arrivals were down from 8,10 million barrels per days (bpd), in April. This is the lowest level since October 2016.

Kpler recorded imports at just over half of the 11,39 million bpd for February, the last month before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran.

Media and market commentary frame the collapse in China's imported crude as helping Asia adapt to the loss of 10 million barrels per day of crude due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Beijing is not being altruistic, but it's a side effect of the changing dynamics in price and supply.

The conflict in Iran is clearly the main cause of the decline in China's oil supplies. But the real challenge is to understand what China does to adapt to this loss of up to 10% of global crude supply.

First, China's imports are being cut back as usual when prices increase sharply. In the aftermath of Russia's invasion in Ukraine in February 20,2022, Brent crude futures rose to a peak of $139.13 per barrel in March. China's seaborne exports fell from 10,84 million bpd a month in January 2022 down to 8,07 million bpd a month in June 2022.

China is not unusual in seeing a swing in imports of up to 2,000,000 bpd per month in response to price changes. However, the drop in arrivals between February and May this year was 5.5,000,000 bpd.

The drop in prices is not the only factor.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also made it difficult for Chinese refiners to obtain crude oil from their usual sources, particularly those who were cut off.

Kpler reports that imports from Iraq dropped from 790,000.00 bpd a month earlier to only 60,000.00 bpd a month later in May. Imports from Kuwait also fell from 522,000.00 bpd bpd bpd bpd bpd bpd bpd bpd ppd bpd bpd bpd bpd bpd bpd

RUSSIAN CRUDE

The drop in seaborne arrivals of Russian products in May was the lowest since August, and down from 1,96 million bpd.

Prior to the Iran War, China was the sole major buyer of Russian crude oil which had been under Western sanctions ever since the invasion and occupation of Ukraine.

The administration of U.S. president Donald Trump has eased the sanctions against Russian oil to address the shortage of crude created by their war with Iran.

India, Asia's largest buyer, has returned to purchasing Russian crude. Arrivals of 2,17 million bpd were a record and more than double the 1,07 million bpd that was in February.

China's crude imports in May fell by a staggering amount, largely due to higher prices and issues with supply. However, it is not clear how the country will adjust to this massive drop.

Refiners are likely to have changed their product mix in order to maximize the production of middle distillates, such as jet fuel and diesel.

Light distillates, which are used in petrochemicals and plastics production, is likely to be affected by the shortage.

China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is unlikely to be tapped yet, as the refineries are using commercial stocks of crude and refined products.

This sharp decline in refined products exports from 777,000 to 463,000 bpd is keeping fuels more available on the domestic market.

The problem is, commercial inventories are unlikely to last for an extended period of time. This means that China will have to eventually do one of the following three things or a combination. It must either increase crude imports, reduce refinery processing rates or tap into SPR.

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These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)