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Energy Markets

Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas

ASM International beats expectations with its second-quarter forecast

ASM International, a computer chip equipment manufacturer, forecast on Tuesday?stronger revenue guidance for the second quarter?than expected by markets?after?a first-quarter result that exceeded expectations. LSEG data estimated that second-quarter revenues would be around 883.9 millions euros, but Europe's second largest maker of chipmaking tool forecasts 980 million euro ($1.15 billion) instead. The first-quarter revenue was 862.5 millions euros, versus the analysts' expectations of 828.5 millions euros. The forecast was published after the European market closed. Analysts felt it was strong enough to distract from the decision to cease publishing the eagerly anticipated new order figures because they are too volatile....

Oil & Gas

Source: Vance is still in Pakistan for Iran talks, but hasn't left yet.

Sources familiar with the situation say that Vice President JD Vance remains in the United States and has not yet left for Pakistan. The prospects of a second round with Iran are still unclear. Donald 'Trump said that he would be sending a delegation of 'U.S. A delegation will be sent to Pakistan to continue the talks before a ceasefire expires in upcoming days. A senior Iranian official said on Monday that Iran was 'considering' attending the peace negotiations, but there had not been a decision made. Second source said that the U.S. delegation has not yet left, but is...

Oil & Gas

US loans 26.03 millions barrels of SPR Oil in third batch after Iran war

The U.S. The?U.S. Department of Energy announced on Friday that it had lent 26.03 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to nine oil firms. This is the third allocation under?the Trump Administration's efforts to curb fuel costs, which?have risen since the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran. In March, the 'Trump Administration' agreed to release 172 millions barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in coordination with the International Energy Agency to draw down 400,000,000 barrels to try to control fuel costs that spiked because of the war. Energy companies are required to pay...

Oil & Gas

US: Ten-day Israel/Lebanon ceasefire can be extended by mutual consent

Israel and Lebanon will implement a 10-day truce beginning at 5 pm EST (2100 GMT) Thursday in order to facilitate negotiations towards a permanent "security and peace" agreement. The U.S. State Department said that the ceasefire could be extended mutually. Israel's campaign against Lebanon is a major obstacle in achieving a peace agreement sought by U.S. president Donald Trump in order to end his war with Iran, which he began?with Israel late February. This has disrupted global energy trade and risen oil prices, risking further economic fallout. According to the U.S. State Department, once the ceasefire agreement is signed, the...

Oil & Gas

IMF chief: 12 or more countries are seeking loans to deal with Middle East war energy shock

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects that at least 12 countries will?seek out new loan programs? to deal with the surging 'energy prices? and supply chain disruptions caused by the Middle East?war?,? the head of global crisis lender, said on Wednesday. Kristalina Georgeeva, IMF's Managing Director, warned of further supply disruptions if the Strait of Hormuz is closed even if it ends quickly. She also urged nations to reduce fuel consumption. At a press briefing during the IMF/World Bank spring meetings, Georgieva reiterated her estimation that the disruptions caused by the war would trigger a new demand for financial support...

Oil & Gas

Edun, a Nigerian economist, says that developing nations require more support from the IMF and World Bank

Wale Edun is the Nigerian Finance Minister, and the Chair of the G-24 coalition of developing nations. He said that multilateral institutions should do more to help vulnerable countries weather the economic shocks caused by the Middle East war. Edun stated during the briefing for the G-24 at the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington that "we would like them do more. We definitely like them provide, especially at this time additional liquidity risk management instruments that lower the cost of funding." The G-24 is a group of countries that coordinates the stances taken by developing nations on issues related...

Oil & Gas

Bessent, US Treasury's Bessent, says China is an unreliable partner for hoarding oil in wartime.

U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that China was an unreliable?partner in the Middle East War?by hoarding supplies of oil and limiting the exports of?some goods. This is similar to its actions during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Bessent said he spoke with Chinese officials on the matter. He avoided a question on whether the dispute will derail U.S. president Donald Trump's plans to visit Beijing mid-May. However, he said that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have a good working relationship. "I believe the message of this visit is one of stability. "We've enjoyed great stability in our relationship...

Oil & Gas

Trump announces 50% tariffs against nations that supply Iran with weapons

?U.S. Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that all imports of military equipment from Iran will be subject to immediate 50% tariffs. There would be no exceptions. He made the announcement in a post on social media just hours after agreeing to a two-week ceasefire. Trump's Truth Social posting did not specify the legal authority that he would use to impose these tariffs. In February, the Supreme Court struck down Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act in order to impose global tariffs. A lower court ordered refunds for $166 billion collected during the course of one year. The...

Oil & Gas

How investors are dealing with Iran shocks using the new Trump trades

Investors are putting together a "Trump trade' playbook to?navigate market uncertainty. This includes determining whether a U.S. - Iran ceasefire will last and whether oil prices will remain high for longer. As geopolitics continue to dominate the economy, it is difficult to move money based on long-term perspectives. During the Iran War, many?investors have placed shorter-term bets instead on assets which may have been?mispriced?. Here is a list of some new Trump trades. 1/OIL PRICE WILL STAY HIGHER FOR A LONGER TIME Oil prices fell almost 15% to $100 per barrel in the wake of the ceasefire on Wednesday, but...

Oil & Gas

Iran's defiance on the eve before Trump's ceasefire deadline

Iran and Israel exchanged attacks on Tuesday, as Tehran defiantly refused to reopen Strait of Hormuz or accept a ceasefire agreement on the eve of the deadline set by U.S. president Donald Trump for Tehran to comply with his demands. According to a source familiar with the plan, Iran rejected the U.S. proposal that was mediated by Pakistan. The plan called for an "immediate" ceasefire, the lifting of the effective blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, and then talks about a wider peace settlement to be held within 15 to 20 working days. IRNA, the official news agency, reported that...

Oil & Gas

IMF chief: Middle East war leads to higher prices and slower growth

The head of the International Monetary Fund said on Monday that the war in the Middle East would 'lead to increased inflation and slower growth globally,' ahead of the upcoming?new forecast by the global lender next week. The conflict has caused 'the worst disruption to global energy supply ever', as millions of barrels of production have been shut down due to Iran's effective blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. This is crucial for shipping 1/5th of all oil and gas in the world. Kristalina Georgeieva, IMF managing director, stated that even if the conflict was quickly resolved, the IMF would...

Oil & Gas

Foreign Minister says China is ready to work with Russia to reduce tensions in the Middle East

In a Sunday phone call, Foreign Minister Wang Yi informed his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov that China was 'willing to continue cooperating with Russia at the U.N. Security Council' and to make efforts to "cool down" the Middle East situation. Wang stated that the best way to resolve navigational issues in the Strait of Hormuz was to achieve a cessation of fire as soon as possible. He added that China has always favored a political resolution of hot-spot?issues by dialogue and negotiation. The call was made ahead of next week's U.N. Security Council voting on a Bahraini Resolution to protect...

Fossil Fuels

Fossil Fuels

Moody's lowers Iraq's credit outlook to "negative" on Middle East conflict risks

Moody's, a credit rating agency, re-evaluated Iraq's outlook on Friday from "stable" to "negative", citing the risks to the country's "credit profile" due to 'the ongoing Middle East conflict' impacting security and energy flow. Moody's stated that "Iraq's heavy dependence on the oil industry implies that disruptions to exports through Strait of Hormuz, which account for around 90% of Iraq's oil exports, will materially reduce dollar inflows as well as fiscal revenues." Iraqi energy officials stated last month that the main southern oilfields of the OPEC'members have seen their output fall by 80% as a result of the U.S. -...

Fossil Fuels

BBC reports that Bank of England's Bailey is 'not going rush' to make decisions on rate increases.

Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England, told BBC News that "the Bank of England will not rush to judgement" regarding interest rate increases, as central banks around he world are dealing with a soaring energy price due to 'the iran war. Bailey, who was in Washington at the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund, said that higher oil and gasoline prices would undoubtedly feed through into prices. However, other factors make a decision about rates "very difficult", according to?the report. Bailey stated that "there are really difficult judgments to make." We're not going rushing to judgements...

Fossil Fuels

US warns Iranian oil buyers that sanctions could be imposed

The United States on Wednesday warned that it would sanction any buyers of Iranian Oil and stated its belief that China will stop such purchases if Washington enforces the maritime blockade against Iran. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary, told reporters at White House that "we have informed countries that we will apply secondary sanctions if they are buying Iranian oil or if Iranian money sits in their banks." As the Iran War entered its seventh week, the U.S. began a maritime blockade against Iran on Monday. China had previously purchased more than 80% Iran's oil. Bessent stated, "We are confident...

Crude Oil

Refined Products

Refined Products

Russell: Refined fuel prices in Asia are declining, but supply is still stressed.

The price of refined fuels has fallen sharply, in line with the declines seen in crude oil after the tentative ceasefire agreement between the United States & Iran. However, the prices remain at levels that indicate a shortage. The prices of gasoil and jet fuel in Singapore, the Asian trading center, all dropped by?double digits on Wednesday amid relief from the market that the 'deal' may lead to the reopening of Strait of Hormuz. The 'ceasefire' and commitment to peace talks announced by the United States in separate announcements looks already to be on its way out. Tehran said it...

Refined Products

US and Iran agree on two-week ceasefire brokered through Pakistan

The United States, Iran and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire for two weeks, which was mediated by Pakistan. This could potentially end a six-week war that has claimed thousands of lives, spread throughout the Middle East, and disrupted the world's supply of energy. Trump announced the deal late Tuesday night, only?two hours after a deadline that he set for Iran:?opening the Strait of Hormuz blockade or face destruction of their "whole civilization". Shehbaz sharif, the Pakistani prime minister, said he invited Iranian and U.S. delegates to meet at Islamabad this Friday. Trump said that the deal was contingent on Iran...

Refined Products

Australia's PM Albanese criticises Trump’s rhetoric but welcomes ceasefire

Anthony Albanese, the Australian Prime Minister, welcomed the ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran on Wednesday, but criticised the rhetoric of Donald Trump. Trump agreed to the two-week ceasefire just two hours before he set a deadline for Tehran to open up the Strait o'Hormuz, or face devastating attacks against its civilian infrastructure. His announcement via?social media was a sudden change from earlier that day when he had issued a warning saying "a whole civilisation will die tonight" in the event his demands were not met. Albanese told Sky News that the ceasefire is welcome but Trump's rhetoric...

Refined Products

Reactions to Trump’s call for assistance to secure the Strait of Hormuz

U.S. president Donald Trump asked allies to help'secure the Strait of Hormuz' as Iranian forces 'continued attacks on this vital waterway during the U.S. and Israeli war against?Iran in its third week. Trump claimed that his administration has already reached out to seven countries but refused to name them. In an earlier post on social media, Trump said he hoped China would join the effort, as well as France, Japan and South Korea. Iran effectively closed the Strait between Iran and Oman. This narrow passage of water has cut off a fifth global oil supply, the largest disruption in history....

Refined Products

The revenue from Russia's biggest oil tax is expected to double in March due to the global price rise

Calculations showed that the proceeds from Russia's mineral extract tax, which is its largest tax item for crude oil production and the country's?largest taxable item, could almost double in March due to the global price rally induced by the conflict in the Middle East. The global oil benchmarks soared to $119 per barrel on Monday, the highest level since June 2022. This was due to supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and others producers, which stoked fears of a major disruption to global supplies. The price increase of crude oil, along with the natural gas that it produces, will benefit Russia's...

Refined Products

South Korea will cap fuel prices starting Friday in order to ease consumer burden

South Korea announced on Thursday that it would cap the domestic fuel prices starting Friday in order to combat an increase in energy costs resulting from the conflict?in the Middle East. South Korea, Asia's fourth largest economy and a country that relies on imported energy for its needs, is making this move to try to mitigate the impact of the Middle East oil crisis. South Korea has set the maximum wholesale gasoline price at $1.17 per liter. This is below Wednesday's 1,833 won. The price will be adjusted every two weeks in order to reflect the changes in oil prices....

Refined Products

The government's response to the oil price spike and the Middle East conflict escalating

Share markets are down on concerns that a U.S. - Israeli war against Iran is escalating and will lead to a squeeze on energy supplies around the world. Here are some?actions? that governments have taken?or? plan to take in order to lessen the impact the war has on their economies. SOUTH KOREAN PLANS FUEL CAPITAL South Korean President Lee Jae Myung announced on Monday that the government would be capping domestic fuel prices for nearly 30 years. The country will also look for sources ?of energy beyond supplies shipped via the Strait of Hormuz, and a 100 trillion won ($67...

Refined Products

Finmin: Indonesia will absorb the shock of oil price increases using its state budget

Indonesia's Finance Minister?said? on Monday that the country will absorb the shock of a rise in oil prices by increasing the allocation to fuel subsidies and using the state budget. Indonesia has budgeted 381.3 billion rupiah (22.50billion dollars) for energy subsides and to compensate Pertamina, the state energy company and PLN, the utility company for their efforts to maintain some fuel and electricity prices at an affordable level. The budget is based on assumptions that Indonesian crude oil prices will average $70 per barrel in 2026 and the average rupiah rate of exchange for dollars will be 16,500. Oil prices...

Oil Refineries

South Korea will cap fuel prices to protect the economy from an energy shock

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung announced on Monday that the government would cap domestic gasoline prices for the first time in nearly 30 years to contain a price spike after the Middle East conflict sent global crude oil prices sharply higher. At an emergency meeting to discuss the Middle East Crisis, Lee stated that the government would "boldly and swiftly" implement a maximum pricing system on petroleum products which have seen recent price increases. In his opening remarks, Lee stated that the current crisis is "a significant burden" on our economy which is heavily dependent on global trade as...

Refined Products

Rubio: US will act to reduce oil prices for Americans

Rubio, the Secretary of State for the United States, said that the U.S. would 'take action' to tame the rising energy prices caused by a surge in oil prices as a result of the conflict with Iran. Rubio told reporters on Capitol Hill that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Energy secretary Chris Wright will announce the plans Tuesday. Rubio stated that "starting tomorrow, you'll see us roll out those phases in an effort to mitigate against this... We anticipated this could be a problem." According to his itinerary, President Donald Trump will meet Bessent and Wright on Tuesday at 2...

Refined Products

Russell: The key to a boost in crude oil production from OPEC+ is the duration of the disruption caused by Hormuz.

OPEC+'s decision to increase crude oil production by 206,000 barrels a day (bpd), starting in April, is likely?the most unimportant decision that the group has taken during its nearly decade-long existence. Addition of 0.2% to global oil demand in a month is nothing more than a symbol in light of the escalating conflict in the Middle East that is already causing serious disruptions in supply. There was not much the 'eight members' of OPEC+ who are voluntarily cutting production could have done if they had met on Sunday in order to reassure the market that the supply would be secure....

Oil & Gas Refining

Sources say that US sanctions have forced vessels carrying Russian oil to divert away from India

Trade sources and LSEG data show that at least two ships loaded with Russian crude oil bound for refiners located in India were diverted due to new U.S. Sanctions. This week, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions against more than 115 Iran linked individuals, entities and ships. Some of these vessels are involved in transporting Russian crude oil. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has warned that he will impose 100% tariffs on all oil purchases from Moscow unless Russia signs a peace agreement with Ukraine. Trade sources reported that three ships, the Aframaxes Tagor, Guanyin, and Suezmax Tassos were to...