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Aluminum outperforms Copper on Energy Cost Concerns amid US-Iran Tensions
The most traded contracts on London and Shanghai exchanges surged as U.S. attacks on Iranian military sites pushed up energy prices, a major cost factor for this energy-intensive metal. LME's three-month contract for aluminium rose up to 3.3%, to $2.634.5 per ton. However, it then eased to $2.580.50 (up 1.22%) by 0101 GMT. The SHFE's most-traded aluminum contract rose 0.54% to 20,525 yuan per metric ton ($2,859.23). Comparatively, LME copper rose 0.16%, to $9,648.5 yuan, while SHFE copper grew 0.31%, at 78.420 yuan. The aluminum price is sensitive to energy prices. It has therefore reacted strongly to oil costs. Now, the question is whether Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz, said a Beijing metals analyst of a futures firm, who requested anonymity. He said that the Strait of Hormuz was crucial for the Middle East's bauxite, alumina, and power shipments. Power accounts for 40% of total costs in aluminium melting. U.S. president Donald Trump raised the issue of regime change in Iran on Sunday following U.S. attacks against key military sites at the weekend. Senior officials in his government warned Tehran against retaliation. Brent crude futures rose 2.44% to $78.89 per barrel as of 1122 GMT. This was the highest price since January. LME Zinc contract rose 0.5% to $2643 per ton. Lead increased 0.1%, to $1994.5. Tin fell 0.1%, to $32,650. SHFE tin rose 1.2%, to 263,950 Yuan per ton. Lead increased by 0.4%, to 16,925 Yuan. Zinc went up by 0.3%, to 21,980 Yuan. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories. DATA/EVENTS (GMT) 0715 France HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI June 0730 Germany HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI June 0800 EU HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI June 0830 UK Flash Composite, Manufacturing, Services PMI June 1345 US S&P Global Mfg, Svcs, Comp PMI Flash June 1400 US Existing Home Sales May
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Oil reaches five-month high following US attack on key Iranian nuclear sites
The oil prices rose on Monday, reaching their highest level since January. This was due to the United States joining Israel to attack Iran's nuclear sites. Brent crude futures were up $1.92, or 2.49%, at $78.93 per barrel as of 17:00 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude advanced $1.89, or 2.56%, to $75.73. The two contracts had risen by over 3% in the previous session, to $81.40, and $78.40 respectively. They reached five-month highs, before giving back some of their gains. Prices rose after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he had "obliterated", Iran's nuclear sites with strikes last weekend. Trump joined an Israeli assault as conflict escalated in the Middle East, and Tehran pledged to defend itself. Iran is OPEC’s third largest crude oil producer. Market participants are expecting further price increases amid growing fears that a retaliatory move by Iran could include the closure of Strait of Hormuz through which approximately a fifth of world crude oil supply passes. Press TV in Iran reported that the Iranian Parliament had approved a plan to close the Strait. Iran has threatened to close strait in the past, but never actually followed through. Sparta Commodities analyst June Goh said that the risks of damage to oil pipelines have multiplied. Even though there are other pipeline routes to the Strait of Hormuz, some crude oil will not be able to be exported if it becomes inaccessible. She added that shippers would increasingly avoid the region. Goldman Sachs stated in a report published on Sunday that Brent oil could temporarily peak at $110 a barrel if oil flow through the waterway was halved over a period of a month and remained down by 10% the next 11 months. The bank assumed that there would be no disruption in the oil and gas supply. It added global incentives for preventing a large and sustained disruption. Brent has increased by 13% since the conflict started on June 13 while WTI is up around 10%. Analysts said that the current geopolitical premium will not last long without a tangible disruption in supply. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank's commodity strategy wrote on Sunday that the unwinding some long positions following a recent rally in oil prices could cap any upside. (Reporting and editing by Himani Sarkar in Singapore, Christopher Cushing and Siyi Liu)
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Oil reaches five-month high following US strikes on key Iranian nuclear sites
The oil prices rose on Monday, reaching their highest level since January. This was due to the supply concerns caused by Washington's decision to attack Iran's nuclear sites with Israel. Brent crude futures were up $1.88, or 2.44%, at $78.89 per barrel as of 1122 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude advanced $1.87, or 2.53% to $75.71. The two contracts had risen by over 3% in the previous session, to respective highs of $81.40 and $79.40 (five-month highs), before reversing some gains. Prices rose after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he had "obliterated", Iran's nuclear sites with strikes last weekend. Trump joined an Israeli assault as conflict escalated in the Middle East, and Tehran pledged to defend itself. Iran is OPEC’s third largest crude oil producer. Market participants are expecting further price increases amid growing fears that a retaliatory move by Iran could include the closure of Strait of Hormuz through which approximately a fifth of world crude oil supply passes. Press TV in Iran reported that the Iranian Parliament approved a plan to close the Strait. Iran has threatened to close the Strait in the past, but never actually followed through. Sparta Commodities analyst June Goh said that the risks of damage to oil pipelines have multiplied. Even though there are other pipeline routes to the Strait of Hormuz, some crude oil volumes will not be able to be exported if it becomes inaccessible. She added that shippers would increasingly avoid the region. Brent has increased by 13% since the conflict started on June 13 while WTI is up around 10%. Analysts said that the current geopolitical premium on risk is unlikely to continue without a tangible disruption in supply. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank's commodity strategy wrote on Sunday that the unwinding some of the positions taken after the recent price rally may cap the upside in oil prices. (Reporting from Siyi Liu, Singapore; Editing and proofreading by Himani Sarkar.)
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US strikes on Iran shattered hopes for nuclear diplomacy
Foreign ministers of Europe's three largest powers met their Iranian counterparts in Geneva on Friday to try to diffuse the tensions over Iran's nuclear program. These hopes were dashed Saturday, when U.S. president Donald Trump ordered airstrikes against Iran's main nuclear sites in support of Israel’s military campaign. Abbas Araqchi - Iran's Foreign Minister - told reporters in Istanbul, Sunday, that it was "inappropriate" to ask Iran to resume diplomacy. He promised a "response", to the U.S. strike. It's not the time for diplomacy. Trump warned that the U.S. would attack other Iranian targets if a peace agreement was not reached in his televised address on Saturday. He also urged Tehran to come back to the negotiation table. Seven Western diplomats and analysts said that the prospects of negotiations were negligible for now. Washington's demands for Iran to stop enriching its nuclear fuel and Tehran's refusal abandon its nuclear program are not able to be bridged. James Acton is co-director of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Nuclear Policy Program, a Washington-based think tank. "I am more concerned about the escalation of the situation, both on the short-term and long-term." According to European Diplomats, Trump's decision not to strike Iran was not communicated to the three European Allies, Britain, France, and Germany, in advance. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, had promised to speed up the nuclear talks on Saturday - before the U.S. strike - after a phone call with his Iranian counterpart. Unidentified European diplomats acknowledged that a second planned meeting with Iran could not be held in the next week. After the U.S.'s military action, it appears that any diplomatic role played by Europe will be secondary. Trump dismissed Europe's efforts to resolve the crisis on Friday, saying Iran wanted only to talk to the United States. Analysts and three diplomats said that any future talks between Iran, and Washington, would most likely take place through Oman or Qatar as regional intermediaries, after Tehran decides what to do in response to U.S. strikes on its nuclear sites of Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Iran has few options left after the attacks. Some in Tehran have suggested that since Israel launched its military campaign against Iran, on June 13, Iran could withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to show their determination to speed up enrichment. However, experts warn this would be a significant escalation which would likely draw a strong response from Washington. Acton of the Carnegie Endowment said that Iran's short-range missiles are the most obvious way to retaliate. These could be used against U.S. assets and forces in the region. He said that any military response from Iran would be fraught with danger. "On one hand, the Americans want a response strong enough to make them feel that the U.S. paid a real price. He said that on the other hand they do not want to encourage a further escalation. Three diplomats say that the European effort ended in failure. Even before the U.S. strike, the talks on Friday in Geneva were a complete failure. There was a huge gulf between the two parties and no concrete proposals were made. Diplomats believe that their mixed messages may have undermined the efforts of both sides. The European position on Iran's enrichment programme has hardened over the last 10 days, as a result of the Israeli airstrikes and the threat of U.S. aerial bombardment. Three years later, during Trump's first term, the three European powers (known as E3) were party to a nuclear agreement signed in 2015. The Europeans and Tehran both believed that they understood how to reach a realistic agreement, given that the E3 has been dealing with Iran’s nuclear program since 2003. The Europeans had a difficult relationship in the last few months with Iran, as they tried to exert pressure on it regarding its ballistic missile programme, its support for Russia and the detention of Europeans. Two European diplomats say that France, the country most eager to negotiate, has suggested in recent days that Iran should move toward zero enrichment. This was not a demand of the E3 until recently, given Iran's redline on this issue. Diplomats reported that Britain also took a more aggressive stance in Geneva. This was in line with Washington. The new German government also appeared to be moving in the same general direction, albeit with more nuance. One EU official said that Iran will eventually have to accept the zero enrichment policy. On Saturday, a senior Iranian official expressed disappointment with the Europeans’ new stance. He said that their demands were “unrealistic”, without giving any further details. In a short joint statement issued on Sunday that acknowledged the U.S. airstrikes, the European countries stated they would continue to pursue their diplomatic efforts. The Europeans said they were ready to help "in coordination with other parties" and called on Iran to enter into negotiations that would lead to an agreement that addressed all concerns related to its nuclear program. David Khalfa is the co-founder of Atlantic Middle East Forum in Paris, which is a think tank. He said that the government of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had abused the Europeans to gain time while developing its nuclear program and missile capabilities. He said, "The European effort ended in failure." The Europeans have one more important card. As parties to the nuclear agreement, they are the only ones that can use the "snapback" mechanism, which will reimpose previous UN sanctions against Iran if the deal is violated. Diplomats reported that, before the U.S. strike, the three countries discussed a deadline of the end of August to activate the system as part a "maximum-pressure" campaign against Tehran. The U.S. has "MULTIPLE CHANNELS" for its talks Officials from the United States said that the U.S. had launched 75 precision-guided weapons, including over two dozen Tomahawk missiles and more than one hundred and fifty military aircraft, in their operation against three nuclear sites. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Iran on Sunday against retaliation, and said that both public and personal messages were sent to Iran through "multiple channels" to give them the opportunity to negotiate. Five rounds of indirect talks between the United States, and Iran have failed after the U.S. proposed at the end May that Iran abandon its uranium-enrichment program. Tehran rejected it, and Israel launched its attack against Iran after Trump's deadline of 60 days for talks expired. Iran has said repeatedly since then that it will not negotiate during a war. Two European diplomats and a senior Iranian official claim that Washington reached out to Iran even after Israel's strike to restart negotiations. It offered a meeting in Istanbul between Trump and Iranian president Masoud Pesekhkian. Three diplomats said that Iran rejected the offer, but Araqchi continued to maintain direct contact with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. Experts say that one of the biggest challenges of engaging with Iran is the fact that it's impossible to know the full extent of damage done to the country's nuclear program. The IAEA is severely restricted in accessing Iranian sites. It's unclear whether Tehran has hidden any enrichment facilities. According to a senior Iranian source, most of the highly-enriched uranium from Fordow, which produces the majority of Iran's uranium that is refined up to 60%, was moved to an unnamed location prior to the U.S. strike there. Acton of the Carnegie Endowment said that, despite the physical damage to Iran's installations, thousands of scientists, technicians, and engineers were involved in its enrichment program. Most of them had survived U.S. Acton said, "You can't blow up knowledge." (Additional reporting in Brussels by Lili Bayer, Andrew Gray and Tom Perry; editing by Daniel Flynn.)
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India will continue to supply domestic fuel despite Middle East tension
Hardeep Singh Puri, India's oil minister, said that the country will take steps to protect its domestic fuel supply after U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites increased the risk of Middle Eastern oil disruption and rising energy prices. Investors and energy markets were on alert after Israel's airstrikes on Iran on 13 June, fearing disruption in particular through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has been threatening to close the Strait for years to exert pressure on Western countries. Puri stated on the social media platform X that "we have been closely watching the evolving geopolitical scenario in the Middle East for the past two week... We have diversified our supply in the last few years and a significant volume of our products do not pass through the Strait of Hormuz anymore." Our Oil Marketing Companies continue to receive energy from multiple routes and have enough supplies for several weeks. He said that we will do everything possible to guarantee the stability of fuel supplies to our citizens. India, which is the third largest oil consumer and importer in the world, imports less than half its average daily oil imports of 4.8 million barrels from the Middle East. Puri also told the local news agency ANI, that India will increase crude oil supplies if necessary. "We're in contact with all potential actors..." He said, "We all hope and expect the situation to result in calmness and de-escalation and not further escalation." India's Foreign Ministry said that earlier in the day, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had received a telephone call from Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian in which he informed him about the conflict between Iran & Israel.
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India promises to secure fuel supplies amid Middle East turmoil
Hardeep Singh Puri, the oil minister of India, said that India would take steps to protect its domestic fuel supply amid heightened tensions in Middle East after U.S. attacks and Israeli strikes on Iran's nucleus sites. India, which is the third largest oil importer in the world, has been diversifying its crude import sources for the past few years to reduce its dependence on Strait of Hormuz. The Middle East provides less than half its 4.8 million barrels of oil per day average. Puri stated on the social media platform X that "we have been closely watching the evolving geopolitical scenario in the Middle East for the past two week... We have diversified our supply in the last few years and a significant volume of our products do not pass through the Strait of Hormuz anymore." Since Israel's airstrikes on Iran on June 13 investors and energy markets are on high alert, fearing disruptions to oil and natural gas flow out of the Middle East and particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has used the threat to close the Strait, which accounts for around 20% of the global oil and natural gas demand, as a means of warding off Western pressure, which is at its height after Washington's strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Our Oil Marketing Companies continue to receive energy from multiple routes. Puri stated that "we will take every step necessary to ensure the stability of fuel supplies to our citizens".
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The world awaits Iran's reaction after Trump claims US 'obliterates nuclear sites'
On Sunday, the world was waiting for Iran's reaction after Donald Trump announced that the U.S. "obliterated", Tehran's nuclear sites. The U.S. joined Israel in the largest Western military action since 1979 against the Islamic Republic. Tehran pledged to defend itself no matter what. The damage seen from space was caused by 30,000-pound bunker-buster U.S. bombs that crashed into the mountain over the Fordow nuclear facility in Iran. The Iranians fired another round of missiles that caused many injuries and destroyed buildings in Tel Aviv. In an attempt to avoid a full-scale war with the U.S. Superpower, the country has yet to act on its threats to retaliate against the United States - by either targeting U.S. base or trying to choke-off global oil supplies. Abbas Araqchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister in Istanbul, said that Tehran would be considering all possible reactions. He said that Tehran would not return to diplomacy unless it had taken retaliatory measures. The U.S. has shown that they do not respect international law. He said that they only understood the language of force and threat. Trump called the strikes "a spectacular success" in his televised announcement. "Iran's nuclear enrichment plants have been totally and completely destroyed." Iran, the Middle East bully, must now find peace. He said that if they don't, future attacks will be much more powerful and easier. His administration insisted that there had not been any orders for a wider war against the hardline Shi'ite clerical regime that has ruled Iran from 1979. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said to reporters at the Pentagon that "this mission was and has never been about regime-change." "The President authorized a precision operation in order to neutralise threats to our national interest posed by Iran's nuclear program." U.S. Vice-President JD Vance stated that Washington is not at war against Iran, but rather with its nuclear program. He added that this has been delayed by a long time because of the U.S. involvement. The Iranian parliament has approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz. This is the narrow waterway that connects the Gulf with Oman, and shares by Iran, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. Nearly a quarter of all oil transported around the globe passes through this area. Press TV in Iran said that the Supreme National Security Council would have to approve the closure of the Strait. The council is led by a member appointed by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet is based in Gulf of Mexico and has been tasked to keep it open. If the Gulf Strait were closed, the oil prices would skyrocket, the economy would crash and there was a high likelihood that a conflict could arise. In a Fox News Interview, U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio warned Iran against retaliating for the U.S. strike, saying that such an action would be "the biggest mistake they've made." Rubio told CBS's "Face the Nation," that the United States have "other targets" they can target, but "we achieved our goal." Later, he added: "There is no military operation planned against Iran right now unless -- unless they mess about." BUNKER BUSTERS Israel has stated that its goal is to destroy Iran's nuke programme. It launched the war on Iran with a surprise strike on June 13th. Only the United States has the 30,000-pound bombs and batwing B2 aircraft that can drop them to destroy underground targets such as Iran's Fordow uranium-enrichment plant, which is built under a mountain. Satellite images taken after the attack showed damage to both the mountain and the entrances near the site. IAEA, the U.N. nuclear monitor, reported that no increase in radiation levels off-site had been reported following the U.S. attacks. According to a senior Iranian source, the vast majority of highly enriched uranium in Fordow was moved before the attack. IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi said that while it is obvious that U.S. aircraft have hit the Fordow nuclear site, it's not possible to estimate the damage underground yet. Iranians who were contacted by expressed their fears at the prospect that a larger war would involve the United States. "Our future looks bleak." "It's like being in a horror film," Bita, a 36-year-old teacher from Kashan, central city, said, before the phone was cut. Residents have fled to the countryside from Tehran, a city with ten million residents, to escape Israeli bombing. Iranian authorities claim that over 400 people, mostly civilians, have died since Israel began its attacks. Iran launched missiles at Israel in the last nine days. This is the first time that the projectiles penetrated Israel’s defenses. The elite Revolutionary Guards claimed to have fired 40 missiles in the latest round of fire at Israel overnight. On Sunday, air raid sirens were heard in most of Israel, sending millions to their safe rooms. Aviad Chernovsky (40) of Tel Aviv emerged from his bomb shelter only to discover that the house he lived in had been completely destroyed by a direct strike. "It is not easy for us to live in Israel right now, but we are strong." He said, "We know we will win." Israel has killed a large number of Iran's senior military leaders in the nine days since it began its war. It targeted residential buildings and bases where they slept. Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, has openly spoken of the possibility to continue until the Islamic Republic’s clerical leaders are overthrown. He denied that this was his main objective. Trump oscillated between offering to end this war through diplomacy and joining it. At one point, he even publicly mused about the death of Iran's supreme ruler. It is his biggest foreign policy bet of his career that he decided to fight. Netanyahu congratulated Trump on a "bold decision". Yair Lapid, the Israeli opposition leader, praised Trump as well. He said that now the world is a safer place.
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Tel Aviv stocks reach record highs following US strike on Iran nuclear sites
Israeli stocks reached record highs after the U.S. attacked Iran's nuke sites, which investors believe will likely prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon anytime soon. The broad Tel Aviv 125 closed 1.8% higher. This brings the gains in the last week to almost 8%, while the blue-chip TA-35 rose 1.5%. Shares rose in all five sessions of last week after Israel struck Iranian targets, including military and nuclear, prior to the surprise U.S. attack on Saturday. Ronen Menachem, chief markets economist at Mizrahi Tefahot, said: "The destruction by the U.S. of Iran's nuclear facilities is a positive event... for improving regional security and reducing Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities." It's a game changer." Israel launched its punishing attack on Iranian nuclear sites, ballistic missile factories, and military commanders starting on June 13. This was met by retaliatory Iranian attacks against Israel. U.S. president Donald Trump claimed that he has " Obliterated The main Iranian nuclear sites were attacked overnight by massive bunker-busting bombs. This was in addition to an Israeli attack in a new and significant escalation in conflict in the Middle East. Tehran has vowed its defense and responded by firing a barrage of missiles on Israel, which resulted in the deaths of scores of people as well as the destruction of buildings in Tel Aviv. But for over a week now, the local markets have praised Israel's action in Iran. The shekel is also gaining value, and Israel's premium for risk has decreased. The bond prices rose by as much as 0.2% Sunday. The shekel doesn't trade on Sunday, but has risen from $3.61 per dollar in June to $3.48 on Friday. It is up about 1% for the month. Menachem stated that "looking at the medium to long term -- which is important for many strategic investors -- it could be a real opportunity, perhaps related to the prospect closer ties between Saudi Arabia and the American axis." The question is to what extent the sharp gains in last week's market have already been priced in. In the initial reaction, a plausible scenario would include further increases in corporate bonds and government bonds. (Reporting and Editing by Bernadettebaum and Giles Elgood.
IAEA: US attack on Iran's Isfahan nuclear site has destroyed entrances to tunnels, according to the IAEA
U.S. strikes on the Isfahan complex, which houses Iran's vast uranium-enriched stockpile, caused damage to the tunnels that store a portion of the uranium. The U.N. nuclear watchdog confirmed this Sunday.
The International Atomic Energy Agency issued a statement saying that "we have established that the entrances to the underground tunnels on the site were affected."
Isfahan is the site where officials have said that a large amount of Iran's highly enriched uranium is stored.
Rafael Grossi, chief of IAEA, confirmed in a statement made to the U.N. Security Council shortly after the IAEA's statement that the tunnels were part of an area used to store the stockpile.
He said that the entrances to the tunnels for storing enriched material had been damaged.
Officials in Iran have stated that they will take measures to protect their country's nuclear materials without notifying the IAEA. Grossi said Iran can do this while respecting its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The Agency and Iran can agree on any special measures that Iran takes to protect its nuclear material and equipment. Grossi told Security Council that this was possible. (Reporting and editing by Francois Murphy, Chris Reese, Ni Williams)
(source: Reuters)