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UK gilts are scorched once again as the Iran war rages and BoE rate increase bets soar

British government bonds fell again on Thursday. The escalating conflict with Iran has prompted investors to price in a Bank of England interest rate increase this year, amid concerns about Britain's vulnerability?to energy prices shocks.

Long-dated bonds dropped the most on Thursday. This was due to concerns about possible additional government borrowings for funding support for energy consumers.

At 1547 GMT the yields on 10- and 20-year bonds, which move in the opposite direction to the prices, both rose by around 10 basis points. The former reached its highest level since September at 4,804%.

Markets bet more on the BoE raising interest rates, a prospect that was viewed as highly unlikely just a week earlier.

Oil prices reached $100 per barrel earlier in trading, and bets on rate hikes increased.

Interest rate futures priced in roughly 60% of the possibility of a quarter point rise in borrowing rates by the BoE, compared to expectations of no change in borrowing costs on Wednesday.

"In the face of an overwhelming number and variety of variables, no one expects the Bank to do more than wait," said Danni H. Hewson, the head of financial analyses at AJ Bell. She was referring to the announcement of interest rates on Thursday, following the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee in March.

"This decision is still a tough one. We will pay close attention to any advice about the way forward."

Investors believe that Britain is more vulnerable than other Western countries due to its stretched finances and heavy reliance upon imported gas.

The fall in gilt prices is a sign of a tightening financial environment in 'Britain. Both the Finance Ministry and BoE are concerned, given that economic growth in 'Britain is already weak.

Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, said Thursday that the country would continue to fight and keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.

This month, the five-year yield is sensitive to changes in the medium-term outlook of interest rates. It has risen 63 basis points, the biggest increase since September 2022, when Prime Minister Liz Truss unveiled her disastrous economic agenda.

Before 2022, the last time that five-year yields increased by this much was in January 1996.

Investor appetite for sales on the primary market remains strong despite the drop in gilt prices in this month.

The bids for the 500 million-pound auction ($667.8-million) of index-linked gilts that are due in 2049 were 3.57 times higher than what was offered. $1 = 0.7487 pound (Reporting and editing by Suban Abdallah and Susan Fenton).

(source: Reuters)