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US crude exports reach record highs in May, as the war with Iran tightens up global oil supplies

Ship tracking estimates revealed on Monday that U.S. crude oil exports reached a record of?5.6m barrels per day during May, as the Middle East Crisis boosted demand from Asian and European refiners for U.S. oil. U.S. and Israel's war against Iran caused the biggest ever disruption in the global energy market, with refiners scrambling to find alternatives to Middle Eastern supplies. The Strait of Hormuz is the conduit for a fifth of all oil and gas in the world. A key waterway was effectively shut down when the war began at the end February.

According to Kpler data and analytics, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices were trading at a significant discount to Brent, a global benchmark. Physical U.S. crude is typically priced at a difference to WTI. A large discount to Brent allows foreign buyers to buy U.S. oil more affordably and ship it around the world.

WTI traded in March at a 20.69-percent discount to Brent futures, the largest in 13 years. Middle East supply disruptions led Brent to increase faster than WTI. When the bulk of deals to export crude in May were completed in April, the spread was an average discount of minus $8.86 compared to minus $4.85 on average before the war.

Exports to Europe, and Asia, reached record levels in May. Asia took 2,45 million barrels per day (bpd) of the barrels exported, maintaining its position as the top buyer in the second consecutive month. Europe came in second with 2.4 million barrels per day.

The demand from Japan - which typically imports its crude oil from the Middle East - accounted for a large share of Asian imports in May. At 808,000 barrels per day, this was a 32% increase on the previous month, and set a new record.

Matt Smith, Director of Commodity Research at Kpler, said: "It is not surprising to see Asia pull so much due to the loss of barrels in the Mideast Gulf."

In May, U.S. crude oil bound for the Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea reached a new record, with Bulgarian, Croatian, Turkish and Greek buyers emerging.

The increase in European demand is also attributed to the record imports from Italy of 335,000.

Rohit Rathod is a senior analyst for Vortexa. He said that the Asian purchases were primarily driven by necessity, while European purchases were primarily driven by favorable shipping?economics and lower rates of transatlantic freight. About 5% of U.S. oil exports were barrels from strategic petroleum reserves. Oil barrels from the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve, which is currently releasing 172 million barrels to fight the spike in crude oil prices, are headed for European and Asian buyers.

EXPORTS SET TO WEAKEN

Exports are expected to slow in June after a bumper month of May. This is because the hopes for a peace agreement have eased supply concerns, and WTI's price discount to Brent has narrowed. WTI's Brent discount was wide in early May but it has narrowed in the second half. It is currently trading at around -$6 on Monday.

Consultancy Energy Aspects estimated exports at about 4.9 millions bpd in June and 4.60 million for July.

Georgios Sakelariou, chartering expert at Signal Maritime said that they expected exports to drop by more than 1 million bpd compared to the month of May. The company also reported seeing at least 10 fewer Very Large Crude Carrier for dates in June compared with May.

Analysts and sources said that low inventories of WTI in the United States would also encourage more barrels to be stored domestically. This will reduce exports.

Prices for the top U.S. Export grades, WTI Midland Crude at East Houston and Mars Sour Crude, both fell into July trade due to a decline in demand. MEH traded Friday at a $1.15 premium to WTI, compared to a $7.75 premium in April for delivery in May. Mars traded on Friday at a $1.50 premium, compared to a high of $27.50 in April.

(source: Reuters)