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Putin's fifth wartime "Russian Davos" is short on ideas for growth

The Russian President Vladimir Putin will host his fifth conference on wartime economics in St. Petersburg. His government is struggling to find a growth strategy, as the?Ukrainian attacks on the economy are hitting the economy. Businesses also see no end to this war.

The $3 trillion economy of Russia, which is heavily dependent on commodities, shrank to 0.2% growth in the first quarter 2026 from 4.9% in 2024. Officials blamed high interest rates, Western sanctions and a strong ruble. The growth rate is expected to be a modest 0.4% in 2018.

The Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, fertiliser factories and ports deep inside Russia have affected a large part of the economy. They have affected one quarter of the refining capacity and created the risk of fuel shortages during the driving season.

Putin, who wants to see the economy grow again, has told his officials that they must find a way to restart growth. Businesses believe that ending the war in Ukraine is the best way to do this.

The enthusiasm and cheers on the Russian stock exchange following each positive piece of news about U.S.-mediated peace talks with Ukraine, indicate their true answer, according to a senior corporate official who asked for anonymity.

The Kremlin announced that peace talks which began with much pomp and circumstance in February of last year were put on hold for the time being, as the United States is preoccupied with the war in the Middle East. The Kremlin said that peace talks which began with great pomp in February last year are on hold?for now', because the United States is preoccupied by the war in the Middle East.

LOST OPPORTUNITY

Kirill Dmitriev has been promoting the potential economic benefits that a peace agreement could bring. He is the Russian point person in contact with Donald Trump's administration.

A senior Russian banker who declined to be named said that Putin lost "a good chance" to make a deal last year and now the economy shows signs of instability.

The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum runs from 3 to 6 June. Delegates will likely discuss strategies such as the redistribution labour into faster-growing industries and the promotion AI-powered digital platforms for e-commerce, banking and other sectors. Officials hope to see a rise in consumer demand.

Oleg Vyugin is a former deputy chair of the central banking. He said that growth would be difficult to achieve with the interest rate at double digits and tax increases for the war.

He said that the government had nothing to offer in terms of a recovery of economic growth.

The factors that fueled Russian growth during the majority of Putin's rule -- foreign investment, energy revenue, government spending, falling rates, and more recently import substitution, digitization, and war-related demands -- are no longer present, or their potential has been exhausted.

Anton Tabakh, chief economist at Expert RA Ratings agency, said: "The question to ask is what will drive the growth if consumers do not plan on increasing their spending and investments have declined for 'the past two years. Fiscal policy is also non-stimulative."

EXTERNAL PUSH

The government has enjoyed a temporary respite due to a surge in the price of oil, Russia's primary?export product, as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, and the near-closure of Strait of Hormuz. However, this is only expected to last a short time.

Contrary to popular predictions, the Russian economy has remained resilient to sanctions throughout the conflict. This is in part due to its military production.

In an interview, a Siberian parliament member made a rare criticism of the establishment. He said that the economy would not be able to survive the long-term continuation of "special military operations", as Russia calls the war in Ukraine.

What are the development, capital expenditures, and investments that we can discuss? "Neither shells nor tanks have consumer value. The economy produces them, but they can't be consumed by the people," said Renat Suleimenov of the Communist Party, a Duma member.

Russia, a country with a population of just 140 million, a small domestic equity market, and little foreign investment, is not able to rely on its own internal drivers for growth, as India and China can. It is therefore doomed to stagnation, until there is an external catalyst such as the lifting of sanctions.

The economy needs external support. Mikhail Matovnikov is the head of Sberbank’s financial analysis center. (Reporting and editing by Gleb Brianski)

(source: Reuters)