Latest News
-
Gold drops as Fed cuts fade amid hawkish Fed comments
Gold prices reverted earlier gains on the Friday, as hawkish remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve officials lowered prospects for a rate cut in December. However, they remain set for a week-long gain due to wider economic uncertainty. Gold spot fell 0.6%, to $4145.49 an ounce at 1153 GMT. It had been $4211.06 per ounce earlier in the session. Bullion has risen 3.7% this week. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell by 1.1%, to $4.149 per ounce. The cautious mood on financial markets is helping to support gold prices. However, there are growing doubts that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December due to the lack of new economic data, said ActivTrades Analyst Ricardo Evangelista. After a 43-day record shutdown, which disrupted the flow of important economic data, the U.S. Government reopened. White House tempered expectations for clarity about the economy by stating that it may not be possible to get October's unemployment statistics. Evangelista stated that "Gold could also face pressure from the closing of positions to meet margin demands triggered by falls in equity markets." The equity markets fell on Friday following a global selloff caused by Fed hawkish signals. Some Federal Reserve officials, in weighing on expectations of rate cuts, have cited inflation fears and relative labor market stabilization following two rate reductions earlier this year. CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that traders see a probability of 49% for a rate cut by a quarter point in December. This is down from 64% this week. Alex Ebkarian is the COO of Allegiance Gold. He noted, however, that as the shutdown costs become clearer and spending increases, "the inflation plus uncertainty growth regime favors precious metals". Gold that does not yield a return tends to do well in periods of economic instability and low interest rates. The physical gold market in major Asian markets has been subdued as high prices have curtailed purchasing activity. In India, discounts reached their highest level for five months. Silver spot edged down by 0.1%, to $52.26 an ounce, and is on course for a 7.8% weekly gain. Palladium fell 1.7%, to $1402.75, while platinum dropped 2%, to $1548.80. (Reporting and editing by Philippa Feletcher, Harikrishnan Nair; Anmol Choubey from Bengaluru)
-
Buy the Rumor and Sell the News with MORNING BID AMERICAS
By Anna Szymanski 14 Nov - Hello Morning Bid readers! Wall Street's decline on Thursday, after a rally earlier in the week, may have been an example of Wall Street "buying rumor and then selling news" as the end of the U.S. shutdown was announced. The major issues that are driving the markets remain the "AI bubble" concerns and the direction of policy easing, even though Nvidia, Intel, and other AI leaders recorded significant losses yesterday. The end of the 43-day longest government shutdown, according to those who counted, had only a small impact on the markets. This is because investors are unlikely to be able to get clarity about the economy, which was one of their biggest concerns. Mike Dolan says that the lack of clarity for Fed chair Jay Powell is bad and could explain why the U.S. Central Bank may pause its rate hikes next month. In Asia, on Wednesday the yen dropped to its lowest level in nine-months, edging up against the critical 155 level. Jamie McGeever says that while government intervention in order to support the yen is not a certainty, investors should remain alert. In Japan, there is a striking similarity between the new prime minister Sanae Takaichi (and U.S. president Donald Trump). Both seem to be aiming to use fiscal stimulus to combat concerns about cost of living - as Jamie McGeever says, this is like trying to put out a fire by dousing it in gasoline. In the meantime, on energy markets, Wednesday, the International Energy Agency published its World Energy Outlook. It introduced a scenario that showed, given current policies, oil consumption will not plateau by 2030, as was previously predicted, but instead will continue to rise until mid-century. Ron Bousso, ROI's energy columnist, examines why the reading is sobering for world leaders who will be meeting in Brazil at COP30. Gavin Maguire, ROI's energy transition columnist, examines what has changed - and not changed - since the historic COP21 Paris accord ten years ago. Chevron released its latest strategy update on Wednesday, which reflected the growing optimism about oil and gas demand. Ron Bousso says that the strategy update dismisses long-term worries about the transition to low-carbon energy, as well as immediate concerns about an upcoming oversupply. Clyde Russell, ROI Asia's commodities columnist, wrote this week about the LNG market bracing itself for an increase in supply. However, it is unclear how low the spot price will need to fall to clear these additional volumes. Andy Home, ROI's metals columnist, notes that the U.S. government has added copper to its list of critical mineral, despite the fact that the U.S. holds the second largest stockpile of copper in the world. Check out what the ROI team recommends you read, watch, and listen to as we enter the weekend. Stay informed and prepared for the coming week. Please contact me via This weekend we are reading... This new, in-depth report from examines the growing trade between Middle East Gulf countries and Asia. It notes that for the first ever time, trade between the Gulf region and China has surpassed the trade of the Middle East Gulf with the West. Energy remains at the core of the relationship but it is also expanding to other sectors, such as electronics and construction. The article by Economic Historian magazine gives a good overview of economic history. It compares current attempts to rollback globalization to previous free trade waves dating back to the 18th and early 19th centuries, and the periodic, and sometimes disastrous, retreats into economic nationalism. This piece questions whether we are at a unique moment or if it is just another cyclical trend. The Center for Public Enterprise's "Bubble or Nothing", a deep dive into the AI boom, examines its funding, energy requirements, 'circular financing', revenues that it could or might not generate, as well as the economic risks associated with a bubble burst. The graphics are simple and excellent. The IEA’s recent report, which stated that fossil fuels would remain in the global energy mix longer than previously predicted, may have caught the attention of many. However this outlook by Ember predicts that clean energy will continue to overtake coal and gas as the world’s primary source of electricity. Listening to... How effective are U.S. Sanctions on Russia's Oil and Gas Industry? Answer: The picture is mixed. Edward Fishman's This is a great show. Sign up for the newsletter to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email. Subscribe to the Morning Bid newsletter Website You can find us on LinkedIn. The opinions expressed are solely those of their authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and neutrality. (By Anna Szymanski.)
-
Brazilian protesters barricade the entrance to the COP30 Climate Summit
On Friday morning in Brazil, dozens of indigenous protesters blocked the entrance of the COP30 Summit venue. They staged a sit-in which forced delegates into a side door to resume their climate change negotiations. Security was stepped up during the peaceful protest and long queues of delegates waited to enter the sprawling complex, built on the former site of the old airport of the Amazonian city of Belem. The protesters demand that the Brazilian Government halts all development projects within the Amazon region, including mining, oil drilling, logging and building a new railroad for the transportation of mining and agricultural goods. On Tuesday, dozens Indigenous protesters forced themselves into the COP30 venue. They clashed at the entrance with security guards. Later, they defended their actions by saying that they wanted to show the desperation in their fight for forest conservation. The Brazilian president Luiz inacio Lula da S Silva highlighted Indigenous communities as being key players at this year's COP30.
-
The Asian gasoline margin has reached its highest level since August 2023
Profit margins for Asia's gas refining The rally reached its highest level since August 20, 2023, due to unplanned outages at refineries and falling inventories in key trading hubs, despite the typical low-demand season. This quarter, the crack gained nearly 55% to $17.71 a barrel over Brent crude due to refinery outages both planned and unplanned and the strong demand of Indonesia as the region's biggest importer. An increase in margins was caused by a string of refinery shutdowns in the past two months, according to a Singaporean trader. Sinochem, a Chinese oil company, has closed one of its crude units in Quanzhou in Fujian Province in the southeast China after a fire on Thursday. The Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday that the U.S. gasoline stock is at its lowest level since November 2014. It stands at 205.1 millions barrels. The Singapore hub's stockpiles also dropped this week. Priti Mehta is an analyst with Wood Mackenzie. She said that while tight supplies were affecting margins, there was also a risk-premium due to the sanctions against Russia. (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier, Shailesh Kumar, and Mohi Nrayan)
-
Copper prices fall as demand worries rise due to weak Chinese data
Copper and industrial metals fell on Friday, after weak economic data in China's top consumer fueled concerns about demand. Hopes of another Federal Reserve rate reduction this year also faded. The benchmark three-month price of copper at the London Metal Exchange fell 0.6%, to $10,890 a metric ton, as of 1026 GMT. It had fallen as low as $10,000.25 earlier in the day. Metal used in construction, manufacturing and power was still on track for a gain of 1.6% per week, after briefly crossing the $11,000 mark Thursday. On October 29, copper reached its all-time high of $11,200. Analysts at brokerage Sucden Financial wrote in a report that they expect previous highs to act as strong resistances as the markets struggle to find fundamental catalysts powerful enough to sustain an ongoing breakout. "We anticipate a short-term period of consolidation, especially if fundamental conditions do not change." In October, China's factory production and retail sales increased at the slowest pace for over a decade. This put pressure on policymakers who are responsible for revamping this $19 trillion export driven economy. The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported on Friday that copper inventories in warehouses it monitors fell 4.9% compared to a week earlier, reaching 109,407 tonnes. As a result, the chances of an interest rate reduction in December have dimmed. A growing number of Fed policymakers are signaling reluctance to ease further. The entire LME Complex was in the red. Aluminium dropped by 1.4%, to $2,856.50 per ton. Zinc fell by 1.1%, to $3,021. Nickel dropped 0.9%, to $14,845, its lowest level since August 1. Tin fell 0.6% to $ 37,005 while lead dropped 0.4% to $1,069.50. Sucden Financial stated that "apart from tin, zinc and nearby spreads, near-by spreads are still in contango. This suggests availability of deliverable materials and limited tightness at the front end of the curve." Reporting by Tom Daly. Lewis Jackson and Dylan Duan contributed additional reporting. Subhranshu sahu, Mark Potter and Subhranshu sahu edited the article.
-
The central bank of Romania has raised its inflation forecasts for 2019 and 2026
The Romanian central bank has raised its inflation forecasts both for this year as well as next, and said that discussions about an interest rate increase will not take place before the summer of next year. Bank of England expects the inflation rate to reach 9.6% in December. This is higher than its previous estimate of 8.8%, due to higher electricity costs and increases to VAT and excise duty earlier this year. Isarescu stated that power prices and tax increases would make up just under five percent of 2025's headline inflation. By 2026, the headline rate will fall from 3.0% to 3.7%. The benchmark interest rate was held at the European Union’s second-highest level of 6.50% by policymakers on Wednesday. They warned that inflation would only return to its target range of 1.5%-3.5% in the first quarter 2027. This is later than expected. Isarescu said to reporters that "talking about a rate cut or a rate reduction is not helpful at this time." "We won't make such a misstep. We'll see what happens with inflation. "We have a lot of uncertainty." He initially said that he thought the interest rate increase would be in the summer or spring of next year. Later, he stated that it was more likely to happen in the summer. The bank held its interest rates through this year, despite the fact that the EU's biggest budget deficit was reduced by tax increases and the rerun of an canceled presidential elections. The deficit-lowering measures helped to avoid a downgrade of the ratings from investment grade, and stabilized debt yields that are now lower than Hungary's. However, they also depressed demand, even though more fiscal corrections needed. Isarescu stated that the economic growth this year could be around 1% and that an imbalance in domestic demand was behind the bank's forecasts for inflation. It was difficult but relatively quick to regain the trust of international markets. "The correction programme must be continued." The correction programme must continue."
-
ADNOC's Covestro deal gets conditional European Commission greenlight
The European Commission announced on Friday that ADNOC, the state oil company of Abu Dhabi, has received conditional approval from the EU for its bid of 14.7 billion euros ($17 billion) for German chemicals firm Covestro. The approval was conditional on the full compliance of the commitments made by both parties, which included ADNOC's proposal to adapt its articles of Association and the sharing of Covestro patents in sustainability with other market participants. Last week, people with direct knowledge of this matter said that they expect the deal to be approved. According to an update posted on the Commission's website last Wednesday, the Commission, the EU’s competition enforcer and regulator, restarted their investigation into the deal after stopping the clock September 3 while awaiting requested information. ADNOC offered last month to amend its articles of Association to address EU concerns about its unlimited state guarantees, and pledged to maintain Covestro’s intellectual property throughout Europe. The company then tweaked this element in response to feedback from customers and rivals. ADNOC has acquired Covestro, its largest acquisition to date. It is also one of the biggest foreign takeovers by a Gulf State of a company in the EU. This deal has raised EU concerns about the possibility that state subsidies were used.
-
Gold drops as Fed cuts fade amid hawkish Fed comments
Gold prices sawsawed Friday, as hawkish remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve officials lowered prospects for a rate cut in December. However, they were still set to make a gain for the week due to wider economic uncertainty. As of 1044 GMT spot gold was down by 0.1%, at $4,166.91 an ounce. It had earlier reached $4,211.06 per ounce. Bullion has risen 4.2% this week. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell 0.6% to $ 4,170.10 an ounce. The cautious mood on financial markets is helping to support gold prices. However, there are growing doubts that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December due to the lack of new economic data, said ActivTrades Analyst Ricardo Evangelista. After a 43-day record shutdown, which disrupted the flow of important economic data, the U.S. Government reopened. White House, on the other hand, has tempered expectations for clarity in regards to the economy by stating that it is possible that October's employment data will not be available. Evangelista stated that "gold may also face pressure from the closing of positions to meet margin demands triggered by falls in equity markets." The equity markets fell on Friday following the global selloff caused by Fed hawkish signals. Some Federal Reserve officials have given their opinions on the rate-cutting expectations by citing inflation concerns and the relative stability of labor markets following two rate reductions earlier in the year. CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that traders see a probability of 49% for a rate cut by a quarter point in December. This is down from 64% this week. Alex Ebkarian is the COO of Allegiance Gold. He noted, however, that as the shutdown costs become clearer and spending increases, "the inflation plus uncertainty growth regime favors precious metals". Gold that does not yield a return tends to do well in periods of economic instability and low interest rates. The physical gold market in major Asian markets has been subdued as high prices have curtailed purchasing activity. In India, discounts reached their highest level for five months. Silver spot rose 0.8%, to $52.68 an ounce, and is on course for its best weekly performance since September 2024. Palladium fell 0.5%, to $1420, and platinum dropped 1.3%, to $1559.70. (Reporting and editing by PhilippaFletcher, Harikrishnan Nair, and Anmol Choubey from Bengaluru)
How can Trump bring peace to Ukraine?
Donald Trump said that he would be meeting with the presidents from Russia and Ukraine to discuss stopping the "bloodbath" in Ukraine. What are the obstacles that the U.S. President faces when he is trying to negotiate a peace agreement with Russia and Ukraine?
SECURITY GUARANTEE
Ukraine, which has been subjected to a full scale invasion in 2022, and witnessed Russia annex Crimea, needs security guarantees from major powers, primarily the United States.
Sources involved in the talks say that the problem is that a security agreement without teeth could leave Ukraine vulnerable. Diplomats talked about a "robust" security guarantee, including a possible Article 5-like agreement. The NATO article 5 treaty binds allies together to defend one another in the event of a military attack. Ukraine is not part of the alliance. According to a draft of a failed 2022 agreement, permanent neutrality was proposed for Ukraine as recompense for security guarantees by the five permanent members on the U.N. Security Council, Britain, China France, Russia, the United States and other nations such as Belarus, Canada Germany Israel Poland and Turkey. In their first high level talks since then in Istanbul, on 16 May, Russian negotiators reaffirmed their demand for neutrality in Ukraine. The Kremlin has said that the content of these talks should remain private.
The officials in Kyiv have said that they will not accept neutrality for Ukraine.
NATO AND NEUTRALITY
Russia has said repeatedly that a possible NATO membership by Kyiv is unacceptable, and that Ukraine should be neutral with no foreign bases. Zelenskiy said that it was not up to Moscow to decide Ukraine’s alliances.
NATO leaders in Bucharest agreed to admit Ukraine and Georgia as members one day at the Bucharest Summit of 2008. In 2019, Ukraine amended its constitution to commit to full membership in NATO and the European Union.
U.S. ambassador General Keith Kellogg said that NATO membership for Ukraine was "off the table". Trump said that the U.S.'s past support of Ukraine's NATO membership was a major cause of war.
Ukraine and Russia will discuss permanent neutrality in 2022. According to a draft of an agreement, Russia wants limits placed on the Ukrainian military. Ukraine is opposed to any restrictions on the size or capabilities of its military.
Russia has stated that it does not object to Ukraine's EU membership bid, although some members of the EU could oppose Kyiv’s bid.
Territorial
Moscow claims to control about a fifth (or a fifth) of Ukraine, and that the territory now belongs formally to Russia. This is a position that most countries don't accept.
In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea. According to Russian estimates, Russian forces control nearly all of Luhansk and more than 70% Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. Russia controls a small part of Kharkiv.
Putin's most comprehensive public peace proposals, which he outlined in June 2020, stated that Ukraine would be required to withdraw from all of these regions, including areas currently not under Russian control. The Ukrainian source claimed that his negotiators reiterated these demands at the Istanbul talks on May 16, according to the Ukrainian source.
Alexander Kots is a war reporter for the Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda. According to Kots' report, the negotiators told their Ukrainian counterparts to give up all claims on the four regions, including Crimea. According to a draft plan created by the Trump Administration, the U.S. will de jure recognize Russian control over Crimea and de facto acknowledge Russian control over Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and other parts.
Ukraine would gain territory in Kharkiv Region, and the U.S. will control and administrate Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant which is currently under Russian control.
Kyiv has said that legally recognizing Russian sovereignty over the occupied areas would be illegal and violate Ukraine's Constitution. However, territorial issues could be discussed in talks after a ceasefire.
In an interview with Breitbart published on May 12, Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff said: "The main issues are the regions and the nuclear plant. It's also how the Ukrainians can use the Dnieper River to get to the ocean."
Sanctions
Russia is in favor of Western sanctions being lifted, but is skeptical that this will happen soon. Even if US sanctions were lifted, EU sanctions and other Western sanctions such as those imposed in Australia, Britain and Canada could continue for many years. Ukraine wants sanctions to stay in place. The U.S. government has been reported to be looking at ways to ease sanctions against Russia's energy industry as part of an overall plan that would allow Washington to provide immediate relief in the event Moscow agreed to end the Ukraine conflict.
OIL AND GAS Trump suggested that Putin, the leader of the world's 2nd largest oil exporter following the recent drop in oil price, may be more inclined towards resolving the Ukraine war, though the Kremlin stated that national interests always trump oil pricing.
Some diplomats speculate that the U.S. and Russia are looking for lower oil prices in a larger grand bargain that includes issues ranging from the Middle East to Ukraine. Reports from Washington and Moscow earlier this month indicated that the U.S. was interested in helping Russia to increase its gas sales into Europe.
CEASEFIRE
Before talks can begin, European powers and Ukraine want Russia to agree to a truce. But Moscow insists that a truce will only be effective once the verification issues have been resolved. Kyiv claims that Moscow is trying to buy time. Trump claims that this is possible, despite Kremlin's denials.
RECONSTRUCTION UKRAINE
European powers are looking to Kyiv to provide assistance with the reconstruction of Ukraine, which will cost hundreds and billions of dollars.
According to Kots the war correspondent in Istanbul, Russia's negotiators said that they wanted both parties to agree to not demand any reparations or to present bills for war damages.
RUSSIAN SPEAKERS
Kots reported that the Russian negotiators at the Istanbul summit said they wanted Ukraine to accept European standards for minorities in order to protect Russian-speaking and ethnic Russians living in Ukraine. Kots said that they demanded Kyiv stop what Moscow called "nationalist propaganda". Ukraine denies Russian accusations that it persecutes Russian-speaking speakers. Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge, Andrew Osborn and Philippe Fletcher. Editing by Gareth Jones & Philippe Fletcher.
(source: Reuters)