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How can Trump bring peace to Ukraine?

Donald Trump said that he would be meeting with the presidents from Russia and Ukraine to discuss stopping the "bloodbath" in Ukraine. What are the obstacles that the U.S. President faces when he is trying to negotiate a peace agreement with Russia and Ukraine?

SECURITY GUARANTEE

Ukraine, which has been subjected to a full scale invasion in 2022, and witnessed Russia annex Crimea, needs security guarantees from major powers, primarily the United States.

Sources involved in the talks say that the problem is that a security agreement without teeth could leave Ukraine vulnerable. Diplomats talked about a "robust" security guarantee, including a possible Article 5-like agreement. The NATO article 5 treaty binds allies together to defend one another in the event of a military attack. Ukraine is not part of the alliance. According to a draft of a failed 2022 agreement, permanent neutrality was proposed for Ukraine as recompense for security guarantees by the five permanent members on the U.N. Security Council, Britain, China France, Russia, the United States and other nations such as Belarus, Canada Germany Israel Poland and Turkey. In their first high level talks since then in Istanbul, on 16 May, Russian negotiators reaffirmed their demand for neutrality in Ukraine. The Kremlin has said that the content of these talks should remain private.

The officials in Kyiv have said that they will not accept neutrality for Ukraine.

NATO AND NEUTRALITY

Russia has said repeatedly that a possible NATO membership by Kyiv is unacceptable, and that Ukraine should be neutral with no foreign bases. Zelenskiy said that it was not up to Moscow to decide Ukraine’s alliances.

NATO leaders in Bucharest agreed to admit Ukraine and Georgia as members one day at the Bucharest Summit of 2008. In 2019, Ukraine amended its constitution to commit to full membership in NATO and the European Union.

U.S. ambassador General Keith Kellogg said that NATO membership for Ukraine was "off the table". Trump said that the U.S.'s past support of Ukraine's NATO membership was a major cause of war.

Ukraine and Russia will discuss permanent neutrality in 2022. According to a draft of an agreement, Russia wants limits placed on the Ukrainian military. Ukraine is opposed to any restrictions on the size or capabilities of its military.

Russia has stated that it does not object to Ukraine's EU membership bid, although some members of the EU could oppose Kyiv’s bid.

Territorial

Moscow claims to control about a fifth (or a fifth) of Ukraine, and that the territory now belongs formally to Russia. This is a position that most countries don't accept.

In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea. According to Russian estimates, Russian forces control nearly all of Luhansk and more than 70% Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. Russia controls a small part of Kharkiv.

Putin's most comprehensive public peace proposals, which he outlined in June 2020, stated that Ukraine would be required to withdraw from all of these regions, including areas currently not under Russian control. The Ukrainian source claimed that his negotiators reiterated these demands at the Istanbul talks on May 16, according to the Ukrainian source.

Alexander Kots is a war reporter for the Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda. According to Kots' report, the negotiators told their Ukrainian counterparts to give up all claims on the four regions, including Crimea. According to a draft plan created by the Trump Administration, the U.S. will de jure recognize Russian control over Crimea and de facto acknowledge Russian control over Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and other parts.

Ukraine would gain territory in Kharkiv Region, and the U.S. will control and administrate Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant which is currently under Russian control.

Kyiv has said that legally recognizing Russian sovereignty over the occupied areas would be illegal and violate Ukraine's Constitution. However, territorial issues could be discussed in talks after a ceasefire.

In an interview with Breitbart published on May 12, Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff said: "The main issues are the regions and the nuclear plant. It's also how the Ukrainians can use the Dnieper River to get to the ocean."

Sanctions

Russia is in favor of Western sanctions being lifted, but is skeptical that this will happen soon. Even if US sanctions were lifted, EU sanctions and other Western sanctions such as those imposed in Australia, Britain and Canada could continue for many years. Ukraine wants sanctions to stay in place. The U.S. government has been reported to be looking at ways to ease sanctions against Russia's energy industry as part of an overall plan that would allow Washington to provide immediate relief in the event Moscow agreed to end the Ukraine conflict.

OIL AND GAS Trump suggested that Putin, the leader of the world's 2nd largest oil exporter following the recent drop in oil price, may be more inclined towards resolving the Ukraine war, though the Kremlin stated that national interests always trump oil pricing.

Some diplomats speculate that the U.S. and Russia are looking for lower oil prices in a larger grand bargain that includes issues ranging from the Middle East to Ukraine. Reports from Washington and Moscow earlier this month indicated that the U.S. was interested in helping Russia to increase its gas sales into Europe.

CEASEFIRE

Before talks can begin, European powers and Ukraine want Russia to agree to a truce. But Moscow insists that a truce will only be effective once the verification issues have been resolved. Kyiv claims that Moscow is trying to buy time. Trump claims that this is possible, despite Kremlin's denials.

RECONSTRUCTION UKRAINE

European powers are looking to Kyiv to provide assistance with the reconstruction of Ukraine, which will cost hundreds and billions of dollars.

According to Kots the war correspondent in Istanbul, Russia's negotiators said that they wanted both parties to agree to not demand any reparations or to present bills for war damages.

RUSSIAN SPEAKERS

Kots reported that the Russian negotiators at the Istanbul summit said they wanted Ukraine to accept European standards for minorities in order to protect Russian-speaking and ethnic Russians living in Ukraine. Kots said that they demanded Kyiv stop what Moscow called "nationalist propaganda". Ukraine denies Russian accusations that it persecutes Russian-speaking speakers. Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge, Andrew Osborn and Philippe Fletcher. Editing by Gareth Jones & Philippe Fletcher.

(source: Reuters)