What is the risk of nuclear contamination from an attack on Iran?

Donald Trump claimed that Iran's nuclear sites were "obliterated", including the Fordow deep-buried facility, in military strikes carried out overnight. The U.S. also joined Israel's attacks on June 13th.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said that the U.S. military attacks on Iran's uranium-enrichment facilities posed limited contamination risks.

Which Iranian nuclear sites have been hit so far?

The U.S. Military struck sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Trump claimed that Iran's nuclear enrichment sites had been "completely obliterated". These attacks come after Israelis announced attacks on nuclear sites at Natanz, Isfahan Arak, and Tehran.

Israel claims it wants to prevent Iran from building a nuke, and the U.S. insists that Tehran will not be allowed such weapons. Iran denies ever seeking nuclear arms.

IAEA, the international nuclear watchdog, has reported damages to the uranium-enrichment plant in Natanz and the complex of nuclear facilities at Isfahan including the Uranium Conversion Facility as well as to centrifuge production plants in Karaj and Tehran.

Israel has also attacked Arak (also known as Khondab). IAEA reported that Israeli military strikes damaged the nearby heavy water plant and the Khondab Heavy Water Research Reactor which were still under construction.

IAEA stated that it was not in operation and did not contain any nuclear material. Therefore, there were no effects radiological. The heavy-water reactors are capable of producing plutonium that, along with enriched uranium can be used in the production of an atom bomb.

What are the risks of these strikes?

Before the U.S. airstrikes, experts had said that Israel's attacks posed only limited contamination risks.

Darya Dolzikova is a senior researcher at London's think-tank RUSI. She said that attacks on the facilities at the front of the nuclear fuel-cycle - where uranium gets prepared to be used in a reactor -- pose chemical risks, and not radiological ones.

UF6, also known as uranium hexafluoride (UF6), is a concern at enrichment plants.

She said that when UF6 reacts with the water vapour in air, it creates harmful chemicals. In low wind, it is expected that the material will settle near the facility. In high winds, however, the material may travel further, but also disperse more widely. Underground facilities have a lower risk of hazardous chemicals dispersing.

Simon Bennett, the head of the civil safety and protection unit at the University of Leicester, in Britain, stated that the risks to the environment are minimal when subterranean installations are struck because "you are burying nuclear materials in thousands of tons of concrete, rock, and earth".

James Acton is the co-director of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Nuclear Policy Program. He said that uranium was barely radioactive before it went into a reactor. He added that "the chemical form of uranium is toxic, but it doesn't travel long distances. It's also barely radioactive."

He said that attacks on enrichment sites were unlikely to have significant consequences off-site, while opposing Israel's campaign.

What about nuclear reactants?

A strike on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor on the Gulf Coast would be of major concern.

On June 19, Israel's military announced that it had hit a Bushehr site, but later said the announcement was an error.

Israel wants to prevent any nuclear catastrophe.

Richard Wakeford is an honorary professor of Epidemiology at the University of Manchester. He said that while the contamination of the area surrounding enrichment plants would "mainly be a chemical issue", the extensive damage of large power reactors was "a different story".

He added that radioactive elements could be released into the ocean or through a plume containing volatile materials.

Acton, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that an attack on Bushehr could "cause an absolute radiological disaster".

Why are Gulf States particularly concerned?

The Gulf States' impact on any attack on Bushehr will be worsened if the Gulf waters are contaminated, putting at risk a vital source of desalinated water.

A source familiar with the situation said that the Gulf Cooperation Council is on high alert in order to monitor any possible contamination of the environment after the attacks. The source confirmed that there have been no radiological signs so far. She also said the GCC has emergency plans in place for the case of any threat to food and water security in the Gulf.

According to authorities, in the United Arab Emirates desalinated drinking water is more than 80%. In Bahrain, 100% of groundwater was reserved for contingency planning.

Qatar is 100% dependent on desalinated drinking water.

According to the General Authority for Statistics, in Saudi Arabia, which is a larger country with more natural groundwater reserves, 50% of water supplies will be desalinated by 2023.

Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait have no access to any other coast. While Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the UAE can draw water from more than one sea, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait are all crammed along the Gulf shoreline.

If a natural catastrophe, an oil spill or even a targeted assault were to disrupt a water desalination facility, hundreds of thousands would lose their access to freshwater instantly, said Nidal Ilal, professor and director of the Water Research Center at New York University Abu Dhabi.

He said that coastal desalination plants were particularly vulnerable to regional hazards such as oil spills and possible nuclear contamination.

(source: Reuters)