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Russell: OPEC+ is lucky to bring back oil production amid uncertainty.
It would have been a bold prediction a couple of months back to claim that OPEC+ could bring back 2,5 million barrels of crude oil production per day and keep the price of oil at $70 a barrel. This is what happened, as the eight producers of the group rolled back their voluntary reductions of 2.2 million bpd by September and allowed a separate rise for the United Arab Emirates. Eight OPEC+ member countries met virtually on Sunday and agreed to increase output by 547,000 bpd in September. This is an addition to the 548,000 bpd increases for August, the 411,000 bpd increases for each of June, May, and July as well as 138,000 bpd of April, which kicked off the unwinding their voluntary cuts. OPEC+ remained steadfast in their recent claim that rolling back production cuts is justified by a robust global economy and low inventories of oil. This is debatable. Demand growth has not been impressive in Asia, the region that imports most. According to LSEG Oil Research, Asia's crude oil imports in July were 25.0 million bpd, down from 27,88 million bpd a month earlier and the lowest total monthly since July of last year. China's increase in crude oil purchases is largely due to lower prices when cargoes arriving in June and July were organized. China's stockpiles have also likely increased rapidly. While it does not disclose its inventories, after subtracting the refinery processing from the total of domestic production and imports, the surplus crude was 1,06 million bpd in the first half 2025. OPEC+ LUCK? It seems more likely that OPEC+ was fortunate to have increased output during a period of increasing risks on the crude oil markets, primarily due to geopolitical tensions. Brent crude futures reached a six-month peak of $81.40 per barrel on June 23, after a brief conflict in June between Israel and Iran, to which the United States later added. Brent has dropped to about $69.35 after some initial weakness in Asia. The point is that this conflict between Israel and Iran has stopped a downward trend in oil prices which had been present for most of the first half year. The recent rise in crude prices has also been boosted by the threat of sanctions from U.S. president Donald Trump against Russian oil buyers unless Moscow agreed to a ceasefire with Ukraine. It pays to be cautious about Trump's actions, as with all his other statements. It would be foolish to assume there will be no effect on crude supply even if the United States' eventual measures are not as drastic. India and China are the two largest buyers of Russian crude oil. India, with its millions of barrels exported of refined products made from Russian oil, is the most exposed of these two. According to Kpler's data, India imported 2.1 millions bpd (billion barrels per day) of Russian oil in the month of June. This is only second highest monthly total after 2.15 million in May 2023. India bought about 40% of the crude oil it uses in recent months from Russia. If it switched to another supplier, this would cause a major impact on oil flow, at least initially. The Middle East, Africa, and Americas could compensate for the loss of Russian barrels by India, but it would result in a significant tightening of supplies and keep prices high. It remains to be determined whether Russia and its shadowy network of traders and shippers can once again circumvent sanctions. Even if they are able to do so, it will still take time to get Russian crude to buyers. OPEC+ is following a smart approach by taking advantage of uncertainty in order to bring back production and regain market share. The question is how long can this play work? It's possible that even if Russian barrels leave the market in the second quarter, demand growth will disappoint as the impact Trump's trade conflict becomes more evident, reducing global trade and slowing economic growth. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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BlueScope, Australia's steel giant, leads the global steel giants to push for Gupta Whyalla plant
BlueScope Steel, Australia's largest steelmaker, announced on Monday that it had assembled a large consortium of international steelmakers to bid on Sanjeev's Whyalla Steelworks. This comes more than a month after local authorities opened the sale process. The group, which includes Japan's Nippon Steel and India's JSW Steel as well as South Korea's POSCO, has a combined value of A$115 Billion ($74.4 Billion) and plans to use the South Australian facility for future low-emissions production iron for both domestic and international markets. The consortium has submitted a non-binding Expression of Interest but has not yet made a formal offer. Whyalla Steelworks went into administration in February after its operating company failed under the weight of tens and tens millions in debt. The Australian and South Australian government stepped in to provide a A$1.9 billion joint rescue package for local jobs and the preservation of a critical piece of industrial infrastructure. Australia officially opened the sales process in June, citing a strong global interest by companies looking to gain a foothold into the emerging green economy of steel. Gupta family conglomerate GFG Alliance was not immediately available for comment.
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Five trapped mine workers found dead in Chilean Codelco mine
A regional prosecutor announced on Sunday that all five trapped workers were found dead at Codelco’s El Teniente Copper Mine. Rescue teams had cleared underground passageways of more than 20 meters (78 feet), which collapsed during a powerful tremor. On Sunday afternoon, Aquiles Cuillo, the prosecutor of O'Higgins Region, announced that the body was found of the fifth trapped worker. Six people have now died in the accident, including the one who was killed at the time the incident occurred on Thursday night. Codelco found the trapped worker Saturday, and three more on Sunday. The company has yet to comment on the last worker. (Reporting and editing by Nick Zieminski, Sandra Maler and Daina Beth Armas)
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Top Trump adviser accuses India financing Russia's war against Ukraine
After President Donald Trump increased pressure on New Delhi, a top aide of the U.S. president accused India on Sunday of financing Russia's conflict in Ukraine through its purchase oil from Moscow. Stephen Miller, a deputy chief of staff in the White House who is one of Trump's closest aides, said that Trump had made it clear that India could not continue to finance this war through the purchase of oil from Russia. Miller's criticism of one of America's major partners in Indo-Pacific was the most severe yet. People will be shocked when they learn that India and China are basically tied in their purchases of Russian oil. Miller stated this on Fox News "Sunday Morning Futures." The Indian Embassy at Washington did not respond immediately to a comment request. On Saturday, Indian government sources said that New Delhi would continue to purchase oil from Moscow in spite of U.S. threat. On Friday, a 25% tariff was imposed on Indian products as a result its purchase of Russian energy and military equipment. Trump has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on U.S. products imported from countries who buy Russian oil, unless Moscow agrees to a major deal with Ukraine. Miller's criticism was tempered by his praise of Trump's relationship to Indian Prime Minister Narendra modi, whom he called "tremendous." (Reporting and editing by Jasper Ward; Chris Reese, Ross Colvin)
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Canadian official: Trump and Carney will speak in the coming days
A Canadian official stated on Sunday that U.S. president Donald Trump and Canadian prime minister Mark Carney would likely speak "over the next few days" following the U.S.'s 35% tariff on products not covered by the U.S. Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement. Dominic LeBlanc is the federal cabinet minister responsible for U.S. Canada trade. He told CBS News "Face the Nation," that recent discussions had "encouraged him" and that a deal reducing tariffs was still possible. LeBlanc stated that although the discussions with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and U.S. Ambassador Jamieson Greer were encouraging, they still did not get us to the point where we could reach a deal in the interest of both economies. The minister of trade said that he expects Carney and Trump "to speak over the next few days." LeBlanc stated, "We believe there is an opportunity to strike a deal which will lower some of these tariffs and provide greater certainty for investment." Washington attributed Friday's announcement of tariffs in part to Canada's failure, it claimed, to stop the smuggling of fentanyl. This was the latest blow to a tariff war that Trump began shortly after he returned to power in this year. Carney said Canada only accounts for 1% of U.S. imports of fentanyl and that it has worked hard to reduce this volume. Reporting by Douglas Gillison, Jasper Ward and Doina Zieminski; editing by Ross Colvin, Doina Zieminski and Doina Colvin
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SABIC, the Saudi chemical company, reports another unexpected loss in Q2
SABIC, the Saudi chemical giant and one of the largest petrochemicals firms in the world, announced a second-quarter loss on Sunday. The company had decided to close a cracker plant in the UK as part of a restructuring during a slowdown in the industry. SABIC's net loss for the three-month period ending June 30 was 4,07 billion riyals (about $1.09 billion), a far cry from analyst expectations that it would be a profit in the amount of 504 millions riyals. The opening price of the shares was 53.8 riyals, a decline of 1.6%. SABIC, 70% owned by Saudi Aramco, has suffered three consecutive quarterly losses as the chemical industry struggles with weak demand, which has affected sales. In its Sunday earnings report, the company stated that the losses were primarily attributed to impairment charges of 3.78 billion riyals and provisions relating to the closure of a cracker in the United Kingdom. This was in accordance with the portfolio review by the company to reduce costs and improve profitability. SABIC's shares have fallen by almost 19% on the Saudi Exchange this year. In a review of the business, earlier this month, it said that its National Industrial Gases Company, including an initial public offer, was undergoing a strategic analysis. SABIC stated in a press release that the move is in line with the company's portfolio optimization strategy and its core business focus. It added that the IPO of GAS will be aimed at improving "the group's financial position and value added to shareholders".
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Australian towns covered in rare snowfall during wild weather
Authorities said that wild weather caused flooding, stranded vehicles, and power cuts to thousands of homes in eastern Australia this weekend. Miriam Bradbury of Australia's weather bureau, a Meteorologist, confirmed that a cold air front brought up to 40 cm (16") of snow in parts of northern New South Wales, the highest since the mid-80s. She said that snow also fell in Queensland, the neighboring state, for the first 10 years. Bradbury stated that climate change had made Australia's weather volatile in recent times, but this type of event has occurred many times in history. She said, "This event is unusual because of how much snow fell and how widely it was spread across the northern tablelands." The New South Wales State Emergency Service reported that it responded to 1,455 incidents despite heavy rains in other areas. The New South Wales State Emergency Service said that more than 100 cars were stranded in snowstorms, buildings had been damaged by storms and several flood warnings had been issued. The Australian Broadcasting Corporation, the state broadcaster, reported that tens of thousands homes were left without electricity overnight. The police in New South Wales (Australia's most populous State) said that a car became stuck in floodwater Saturday evening, and a woman in her 20s had been swept away. They said the search would continue on Sunday. (Reporting and editing by William Mallard in Canberra, with Peter Hobson reporting from Canberra)
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Sources say that OPEC+ has agreed in principle to another major increase in oil production.
OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels a day in September. Two OPEC+ sources confirmed this on Sunday, as the group completes its largest tranche of production reductions amid fears that Russia will disrupt supply further. The meeting, which is scheduled to start at 1100 GMT on Monday, will likely result in a decision. Washington has recently demanded that India stop purchasing Russian oil. Washington also wants to find ways to pressure Moscow to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine. New EU sanctions have also forced Indian refiners and state-owned companies to stop buying Russian oil. OPEC+ has been reducing production to support the oil market for many years. It reversed its course in order to regain market shares and after U.S. president Donald Trump demanded that OPEC pump even more oil. OPEC+ increased its output in April, starting with a modest increase of 138,000 bpd. This was followed by increases of 411,000 bpd between May, June, and July, and then 548,000 bpd during August. If the group accepts the 548,000 bpd increase in September, it will have completely unwound the 2.2 million bpd production cut, allowing the United Arab Emirates an additional 300,000bpd. OPEC+ has a voluntary, separate cut of 1.65 million bpd by eight members. A 2-million bpd reduction is also in place for all members. These cuts expire at the beginning of 2026. The group has not discussed other cuts in the past. (Alex Lawler, Dmitry Zhdannikov and William Mallard contributed additional reporting; Dmitry Zhdannikov wrote the article; Lincoln Feast and William Mallard edited it.)
Oil prices drop after OPEC+ agrees on a production increase in September
Early Asian trading on Monday saw oil prices drop after OPEC+ agreed that they would increase production by a large amount in September.
Brent crude futures were down 43 cents or 0.62% to $69.24 per barrel at 2218 GMT, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude was $66.94 per barrel, down 39cents or 0.58% after both contracts had closed around $2 lower on Friday. OPEC+ decided on Sunday to increase oil production by 547,000 bpd for September. This is the latest of a series accelerated output increases to regain market shares, as concerns grow over possible supply disruptions related to Russia.
This move represents a complete and early reversal in OPEC+’s largest batch of output cuts. In addition, the United Arab Emirates have increased their output by about 2.5 million bpd or 2.4% of global demand.
In a press release issued after the meeting, OPEC+ cited a strong economy and low stock levels as reasons for its decision.
Helima Croft, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said that the actual increase since April was smaller than the headline figure and mainly comprised of barrels coming from Saudi Arabia and UAE (United Arab Emirates).
The bet that the market would absorb the extra barrels this summer has paid off, as prices are not far from the pre-tariff Liberation Day level. Reporting by Florence Tan Editing and design by Rod Nickel
(source: Reuters)