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Scientists in the US predict a hurricane season above normal for 2025
Scientists from the U.S. Government said that they expected a hurricane season above normal in 2025. They expect three to five hurricanes of major intensity with winds sustained at a minimum of 111 miles per hour (179 km/h). According to the U.S. National Weather Service, 13 to 19 tropical storms will be named with winds at least 39 mph during the Atlantic hurricane season that begins June 1. Six to ten of these storms are expected to develop into hurricanes with wind speeds greater than 74mph. Ken Graham, Director of the National Weather Service, said that the main contributor to this is the warmer sea surface temperature. Both academic and private forecasters have given similar predictions for the current hurricane season that continues until November 30. In the Atlantic between 1991 and 2020 there were an average of 14.4 tropical storms named annually, with 3.2 major hurricanes on average among 7.2 hurricanes. Colorado State University's meteorologists predicted in early April that the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be above normal, with 17 named storms and nine hurricanes. Four of these are expected to be major. AccuWeather released its hurricane season forecast for 2025 in late March. The private weather service predicts between three and five hurricanes major out of seven to ten hurricanes, from thirteen to 18 named Tropical Storms. The hurricane season of 2024 was the most expensive on record. Five major hurricanes were among the 11 named storms that made up 18 hurricanes. The storms of 2024 caused the deaths of 427 individuals and total losses of $130 billion. (Reporting and editing by Nia Williams in Houston, Erwin Seba)
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Treasury yields fall, US stocks increase with technology; investors evaluate US tax bill
The 30-year U.S. bond yields rose to their highest level in nearly a year before they eased on Thursday. Worries about the U.S. budget outlook and demand for debt remained, but Wall Street stocks gained ground with tech-related gains. After recent losses, the U.S. Dollar has strengthened. The U.S. House of Representatives approved President Donald Trump's proposed tax bill with a single-vote, increasing concerns about the debt burden of the country. The bill would provide new tax breaks for car loans and tips, and increase spending on border enforcement and the military. Moody's was the last major credit rating agency to remove the U.S. from its triple-A rating. The yield on the 30-year U.S. bond was last down 3.2 basis point at 5.0573%. Weak demand for Wednesday's $16 billion in 20-year bonds increased worries about the interest rate on U.S. government debt. The yields on benchmark German 20-year bonds had reached their highest level in two months. U.S. stock prices rose on Thursday, after a sharp drop in the previous session. Jake Dollarhide is the chief executive officer of Longbow Asset Management, located in Tulsa. The market is a safe haven for technology at this time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 51.28 points or 0.12% to 41,912.24, while the S&P 500 rose 8.79 points or 0.15% to 5,853.45. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite grew 118.49 or 0.63% to 18,990.84. Alphabet shares rose 2.5% and the sector of communication services grew 0.9%. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 1.92 points (0.22%) to 872.01. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.72%. Figures showed that the British government borrowed more in April than was expected, and euro zone businesses unexpectedly returned to contraction. After the data, the euro fell while the U.S. Dollar rose after three consecutive days of losses. The euro fell 0.44% to $1.1279. The dollar rose 0.1% in late morning New York trading to 143.75yen, after dropping earlier to 142.80yen, its lowest level since May 7. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has risen to a new high partly because investors are looking for alternatives to U.S.-based assets. According to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, Trump's tax cut bill will add $3.8 billion to the $36.2 trillion of U.S. debt in the next decade. The oil price was affected by a report that OPEC+ has discussed a production boost for July. U.S. crude dropped 1.45% to $60.69 per barrel. Brent was down to $63.93 a barrel, a drop of 1.51% for the day.
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US backs Republican states in BlackRock Climate Case
U.S. antitrust enforcers backed up on Thursday the arguments used by Republican states accusing asset managers BlackRock Vanguard State Street and State Street, of conspiring to reduce coal production through climate activism. The U.S. Department of Justice filed a statement of interests in the case in which Texas and 12 other States claim that the companies used their significant holdings in U.S. Coal companies to discourage the competition. The agencies asked the judge in Tyler, Texas to reject the asset managers' arguments in their bid for dismissal, including the argument that the alleged misconduct falls under an exemption applicable to passive investors. In their court brief, the agencies stated that the case involves the exact type of conduct, such as concerted efforts by the companies to reduce production, that has been long condemned under antitrust laws. BlackRock stated that forcing asset management companies to divest their coal holdings would hurt the companies' ability to access capital and increase energy prices. State Street claimed that it acts in the best interests of its investors, and that the lawsuit was baseless. Vanguard reiterated that it will defend its previous comment that it will safeguard its history in protecting returns for investors. First reported on Thursday, the agencies are expected to support state arguments. This is a major political setback for top asset managers. BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street, which together have $27 trillion, are under fire by conservative Republicans from states that produce energy. They claim the firms put social and environmental concerns ahead of maximising returns for customers. BlackRock is, for example, facing restrictions or outright bans from managing public assets, in states such as Texas and Indiana, due to its ESG policies. In February, there were signs of thawing when BlackRock led a consortium that bought ports near the strategically important Panama Canal. The deal was hailed as a success by U.S. president Donald Trump. Asset managers call the case "half baked" and claim there is no proof that they demanded a reduction in output. U.S. district judge Jeremy Kernodle will hear arguments in June on the asset manager's bid to dismiss the lawsuit. (Reporting and editing by J. Godoy, Ross Kerber and Chris Sanders; Nick Zieminski and Matthew Lewis)
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Rio Tinto searches widely for new CEO in contrast to BHP's strong bench
Rio Tinto will be casting a wide net when it searches for a new chief executive officer due to the fact that there is a short list of internal candidates. This is in contrast to BHP's laser-focused succession plan. Rio Tinto, the largest iron ore mining company in the world, surprised investors on Thursday by announcing that CEO Jakob Stausholm would step down at the end of the year, once a new successor has been appointed. The company did not give a reason for its decision. A source with knowledge of the matter stated that the board held meetings in the last few months on succession with the assistance of executive recruitment firm MWM Consulting. They vetted internal candidates such as Bold Baatar and Simon Trott, while also looking for external leaders. The next generation of mining leaders must be more aggressive. "There's less of it around, and they will need to take more risks to get that," said a person who consults top executives in the industry. The two mining giants have been in the process of changing their CEOs at a crucial time. This is because the demand for copper in various technologies, including artificial intelligence and clean energy transition, has become critical. The year 2024 was marked by a febrile atmosphere as the diversified miner companies failed to pull off major M&A deals. Both companies could hope for success with new leadership. Baatar (Singapore), Rio's Chief Commercial Officer, is a candidate who has received a lot of support from Rio's own internal candidates. In a note, RBC analysts stated that Baatar’s communication skills, portfolio knowledge and ability to solve problems (as demonstrated during his time at the Oyu Tolgoi Mine in Mongolia and Simandou Mine in Guinea) will be key for Rio. The Mongolian has held leadership positions at Rio in the marine and iron ore divisions. In 2016, he joined the Executive Committee, running the Energy & Minerals group before heading the copper division. Trott is the head of iron ore at Rio. He has been with Rio for more than 20 years. In Australia, Trott brought its largest new iron ore mining in over a decade to market. Trott also oversees a massive programme of replacement tons. Investors have reacted negatively to his leadership, citing the fact that Rio's ore exports have declined in quality and production has fallen short. Outside candidates Pecresse joined the company in October 2023 from General Electric Renewable Energy. Prior to this, he worked for Alstom and Imerys. He is regarded as an understated, sharp leader. His wife is French politician Valerie Pecresse. Other candidates include former Rio de Janeiro veterans Newmont CEO Tom Palmer and Andrew Cole, the previous OZ Minerals chief executive officer. This is in contrast to BHP, which has a strong internal team and where the CEO, Mike Henry, is expected to depart within the next year. A new CEO was announced at the time. BHP rotates its top talent regularly through key roles to ensure it has the depth and breadth of expertise available. As a pre-screening process, the board chair and other members mentor internal CEO candidates for many years, according to a source with knowledge of the company. In 2016, the company committed to having 40% of its staff be women by 2025. It is currently on track to meet that goal, and two of its top contenders are female. Geraldine Slattery, BHP's Australia President, is well-liked by investors because of her operational expertise. She previously led BHP's Texas petroleum business. She has worked at BHP for over 30 years. One investor described her as "steely". CFO Vandita Pant has been hailed as a calm and collected person in these uncertain geopolitical circumstances. She helped guide ABN Amro through the depths of the global financial crises, and worked at RBS with BHP’s new chairman, former RBS CEO Ross McEwan. Pant joined BHP as of 2016. Investors have suggested that her background in finance, and not operations, could be a weakness.
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Ramco Cement reports a slump in profits, but forecasts higher prices for south India
Ramco Cements reported on Thursday that it expects to see an improvement in cement prices in the key South India market. This comes after Ramco Cements reported a decline in profits for its fourth quarter, due in part to low prices and lower volume in a traditionally strong season. The adjusted net profit for the cement business fell by over 76%, to 384.3 millions rupees ($4.5million) in the third quarter ending March 31. The company recorded a gain of 108.3 millions rupees from the sale of excess lands and investments. The company said that "in southern region, average cement prices improved during the first two month of FY26...the company believes prices will continue to improve amid the increasing pace of cement capacity expansion (in the area)". Jefferies reported earlier this month that South India, where Ramco gets three-fourths its volumes, had lagged behind other regions in the country when it came to pricing growth. However, Jefferies now says South India is climbing out of this lull. This will benefit both companies such as Dalmia Bharat and Ramco, which have a strong focus in the South. It also benefits other large players in the market like UltraTech and Ambuja, who have signed back-to-back deals to expand their capacity. Ramco reported that its sales volume fell by 4% during the quarter. Normally, Ramco's sales are strong because favorable weather encourages construction and cement demand. Ambit Capital data also showed that the average cement price in India was 2% less than it had been a year earlier for the quarter reported. Analysts on average estimated a 0.4% decline in revenues, but the actual fall was over 10%. Ramco said that the recent tax imposed by Tamil Nadu on limestone mining - which is used to make cement - will increase production costs per ton by 200 rupees. The company stated that the levy was "the highest in the nation... through the industry association, the Tamil Nadu cement manufacturers have requested relief to the government, which is currently being considered." $1 = 85.9750 Indian Rupees (Reporting and editing by Sumana Mandy in Bengaluru, and Shailesh Kuber)
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The US Senate votes to block California's 2035 electric vehicle regulations
The U.S. Senate voted on Thursday to block California's historic plan to stop selling gasoline-only cars by 2035. This plan has been adopted and endorsed by 11 states, representing one third of the U.S. automobile market. The measure is sent to President Donald Trump to repeal the waiver that was granted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in December under the former president Joe Biden, which allowed California to mandate 80% electric cars by 2035. The vote was a victory for General Motors and Toyota, and other automakers who heavily lobbied to oppose the rules. It is also a blow to California as well as environmental groups which claim that the requirements were essential to ensure cleaner vehicles and reduce pollution. The Alliance for Automotive Innovation (representing GM, Toyota Volkswagen, Hyundai, Stellantis, and others) commended the vote. John Bozzella, CEO of the group, said: "These EV sales mandates never could have been achieved." In reality, to meet the mandates it would be necessary to divert finite capital away from the EV Transition in order for Tesla compliance credits. Tesla has not yet commented. The latest of a number of initiatives launched in recent months to target electric vehicles. The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill on Thursday that would eliminate a $7.500 tax credit on new electric vehicles. It would also impose a $250 annual fee for road repairs and repeal vehicle emission rules intended to encourage automakers to build more EVs. The rule, if upheld by courts, will allow automakers to cancel or delay some EV production. California's rule requires 35% of the light-duty vehicles for 2026 to be zero emission models. Automakers claim that they cannot meet this figure, given the current EV sales which are as low as 10% in some states.
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The head of BHP Escondida's mine, BHP Escondida, says Chile must do much more to encourage investment
SANTIAGO (May 22) - Alejandro Tapia of Escondida Copper Mine, the largest in the world, spoke at the ChileDay Investment Conference in New York on Thursday. Why it's important Chile will be the largest copper producer in the world by 2024, with a share of nearly one quarter. The regulatory process in the country and its delays have been criticized by miners. Large-scale investments are needed to increase production and offset global shortages as ore grades decline around the country. Key Quote(s) The significant increase in copper demand could attract new major investments to Chile if we can provide legal certainty, fiscal stabilty, and a faster, modern permitting system. "I want to summarize by highlighting the central message. Growth, permits, and environment legislation should be an immediate priority if we are to make the most of the enormous opportunity that we have in this country, when the world needs 70% more copper in 2050 than they do today." He added, "It is a regulatory matter that we can improve in order to unlock investment." CONTEXT Escondida, the largest copper mine in the world, is where BHP will invest $10 billion if the environmental permits are granted. BHP announced that it would begin its 10-year investment plan by optimizing its concentrator for $2 billion. BY THE NUMBERS According to the Chilean State Copper Commission, Chilean copper production will grow 4.9% by 2024 to reach 5.5 million tons. Escondida will produce 1.28 million tonnes in 2024. BHP expects global copper demand to reach 31 million tonnes in 2023 and grow at a rate of 1 million tons per year until 2035. What's next? Chile's Congress is currently considering a bill that would streamline several permit processes. Reporting by Fabian Andres Cambero, Editing by Alexander Villegas & David Gregorio
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Italy confident US-EU Trade Agreement will Echo the US-UK Deal
Giancarlo Giorgetti, the Economy Minister of Italy, said that he is confident that the United States would agree to a similar trade agreement with the European Union as Washington had already done with Britain. If negotiations fail during the 90-day pause, additional "reciprocal tariffs" -- totaling a combined 20 percent in the EU case -- are planned. In early April, U.S. president Donald Trump and British prime minister Keir starmer announced a limited trade agreement. The agreement leaves the 10% tariffs Trump imposed on British exports in place, but expands access to agriculture for both countries, and lowers U.S. import duties that were prohibitive on British auto exports. Giorgetti said at a conference held in Trento, north Italy: "It is very unlikely that the final agreement between the EU and US will differ significantly from the agreement reached with the UK." He spoke by video link in Canada, where the ministers of the Group of Seven Advanced Economies (G7) were meeting. The U.S. Administration is close to or has reached agreements with the United Kingdom and China. "I am not saying the European Union is last, but I do believe that reasonable results can be achieved here too," he said. (Reporting and editing by Crispian B. Balmer; Reporting by Giuseppe Fonte)
Iran warns Israel and the US against any attack on their nuclear sites
Abbas Araqchi, the Foreign Minister, said that the United States would be legally responsible in case of an Israeli attack against Iranian nuclear facilities. This was after a CNN report stating that Israel could be involved.
Prepare for strikes
Iran
Iran and the U.S. - Israel's closest allie - will hold their fifth round of talks in Rome on Friday amid a deep disagreement about uranium enrichment in Iran. Washington claims that this could lead to the development of nuclear bombs. Iran denies such intent.
CNN, citing intelligence sources on Tuesday, said it was unclear whether Israel had reached a final military decision and that U.S. official disagreed on whether Israel would decide to attack.
In a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Araqchi warned that Iran would respond firmly to any act of adventurism or illegality by Israel's Zionist regime.
Araqchi stated that Iran would consider Washington a "participant in such an attack" and Tehran would need to take "special measures" if the threats continued. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) would then be informed about such actions.
Araqchi, the adviser to Iran's Supreme leader, did not mention what measures are being considered.
In April,
Tehran could suspend its cooperation with IAEA, or transfer enriched materials to secure and unreported locations.
In a separate release on Thursday, Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards warned Israel that it would face a “devastating and definitive response” if they attacked Iran.
Alimohammad Naini, the spokesperson for the Guards, said: "They're trying to scare us with war. But they're miscalculating because they don’t realize the massive popular and military backing the Islamic Republic will be able to muster under war conditions."
Diplomats claim that a collapse in the U.S. and Iran negotiations, or a new deal on nuclear energy which does not ease Israeli concerns over Iran developing nuclear weapons by enrichment, could lead to Israeli attacks against its regional arch enemy.
Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei, the Iranian Supreme Leader, said on Tuesday that U.S. demands for Tehran to stop refining its uranium are "excessive" and "outrageous," and expressed doubt about whether negotiations over a new nuclear agreement will succeed.
Tehran claims that its nuclear energy program is solely for civil purposes.
Iran and Israel exchanged direct fire in April and in October last year, increasing the likelihood of regional conflict.
(source: Reuters)