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Sources say that India refiners are waiting for a government order to purchase Russian oil.
Four industry sources say that Indian refiners await government instructions on whether they should continue to buy Russian oil, after the United States imposed new 25% tariffs on Indian products over New Delhi’s energy ties to Russia. The new duties are meant to penalise India for its Russian Oil imports. They come on top existing tariffs Washington levied in order to correct its trade deficit with South Asia. India called the latest U.S. actions "unfair, unreasonable and unjustified." An official of a private refinery company said, "We haven't heard anything from the government so we won't stop Russian oil imports." India, which is the third largest oil consumer and importer in the world, depends on Russian oil to meet more than one-third of its oil requirements. State refiners have halted the imports of Russian crude oil. However, private companies Reliance Industries (Reliance), Nayara Energy and HPCL Mittal Energy(HMEL) continue lifting Russian oil. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has criticised India for its Russian oil purchases. He argues that they are helping to fund Moscow's conflict in Ukraine. Refiners in India are likely to look to Middle East, African and American suppliers if they're forced to reduce their Russian imports. Saudi Arabia, India’s third largest oil supplier, raised its official prices for Asia. In anticipation of increased Indian demand, they kept the prices strong," said an official from a refinery in India. The markets are expecting new tariffs that will disrupt current trade flows and favor Middle Eastern crude. In 21 days, the additional tariffs will come into effect. Trump's executive orders allows for changes if Russia and India "align themselves sufficiently with the United States in national security, foreign policies, and economic issues."
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Trump imposes an additional 25% tariff on Indian products, relations reach new low
U.S. president Donald Trump issued an executive directive on Wednesday imposing an extra 25% tariff on Indian products citing New Delhi’s continued imports from Russia. This sharply escalated tensions between both countries after the collapse of trade talks. The new measure increases tariffs on certain Indian goods up to 50%, making it among the highest for any U.S. trade partner. The U.S. and India relations have been deteriorating since Trump took office in January. The announcement comes at the same time that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is preparing for his first trip to China in more than seven years. This could indicate a possible realignment of alliances, as Washington's ties are fraying. India's External Affairs Ministry said that "India will take any action necessary to protect its own national interests." It was "extremely regrettable" that the US chose to impose tariffs against India in response to actions that other countries also took in their national interest. India said that its imports are based on factors of the market and aimed to provide energy security to its 1.4 billion population. Analysts warned that the tariffs would severely affect Indian exports. The order stated that the additional 25% tariff will come into effect 21 day after August 7. Madhavi Arora is an economist with Emkay Global. She said: "With such outrageous tariff rates, the trade between these two nations would be virtually dead." Indian officials privately acknowledge the growing pressure on them to return to negotiations. A possible compromise could include a gradual reduction of Russian oil imports, and diversification in energy sources. An Indian official stated that New Delhi was surprised by the sudden and steep imposition of a new levy, while both countries continued to discuss trade issues. Trump's announcement follows five rounds inconclusive of trade negotiations that stalled due to U.S. demand for greater access to Indian dairy and agriculture markets. The tariffs were escalated due to India's refusal of reducing its Russian oil purchases, which reached a record high of $52 billion in the past year. At this rate, exports to the U.S. are no longer viable. Garima Kapoor is an economist at Elara Securities. She said that the risks to exports and growth are increasing, and there may be renewed pressure on the rupee. "Calls to provide fiscal support will likely intensify." Trump's executive orders does not mention China which also purchases Russian oil. An official at the White House did not immediately comment on whether a second order would cover those purchases. Last week, U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent warned Chinese officials to stop buying Russian oil sanctioned by Congress. However, Beijing said it would defend its energy sovereignty. U.S.-China trade talks have focused on extending the 90-day truce in tariffs that expires August 12 when bilateral tariffs will return to triple-digit numbers. Reporting by Doina chiacu, Andrea Shalal and Manoj Kumar; Editing and proofreading by Caitlin webber and Deepa babington
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INSTANT VIEW - Trump order imposes an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods
The U.S. president Donald Trump issued a executive order Wednesday that imposed an additional 25% tariff for goods coming from India. He claimed the country had directly or indirectly imported Russian crude oil. India, along with Brazil will be subject to the highest tariffs. This puts it at a disadvantage in comparison to regional competitors like Vietnam and Bangladesh. Tariffs will be implemented 21 days after the date of the Executive Order. A. PRASANNA CHIEF ECONOMIST ICICI SECURITIES PRIMARY DEALERSHIP MUMBAI The additional rate will take effect after 21-days, but will be added to the 25% that was already in place. This will result in a total of 50% for Indian exports. Some key segments, such as electronics and pharmaceuticals, are still exempted from the additional rate. Many Indian exports are at a disadvantage compared to countries in the 15-30% range. SAKSHI GUPTA - PRINCIPAL ECONOMIST HDFC BANK GURUGRAM In the event that a deal is not reached, Trump's order will give us another 21 days to reach a resolution. If this does not happen, we would have to lower our FY26 GDP forecast significantly to below 6% and factor in a 40-50 basis point hit. This would be twice our previous estimates (of the GDP hit by higher tariffs). TERESA JOHAN, CHIEF ECONOMIST NIRMAL BANK, INSTITUTIONAL EQUALITIES, MUMBAI India is under increasing pressure to reach a trade deal. India could agree to reduce its Russian purchases in a gradual manner, and to diversify. GAURA SEN GUPTA ECONOMIST IDFC FIRST BANK MUMBAI After this order, bilateral tariffs are expected to rise by 50%. This would be the highest rate of tariffs from August. This increases the risk of a lower GDP estimate for 2025-26. The total risk of a negative outcome is currently estimated to be between 0.3% and 0.4% if tariffs continue until March 2026. MANOJ MISHRA is a Partner at GRANT THORNTON BARAT in NEW DELHI India's merchandise exported to the U.S., at $87 billion during FY25, represents only 2% of India’s GDP. This is a small share of India’s economy. Although the impact is notable, it's not likely to be serious. This new development highlights the need to diversify markets for exports, reduce dependence on a single trading partner and take advantage of India's growing FTA network in order to increase trade resilience over time and sustain export growth. WILLIAM O'NEIL, WILLURESH JOSHI - HEAD OF EQUITY RESEARCH – INDIA Markets have already begun pricing in the possibility of a steep tariff increase, but a knee-jerk response is likely to occur in the near term unless there is a rapid clarity or breakthrough in negotiations. India's crude imports remain diversified - we source from other countries, including the U.S. Russia is only one part of our crude oil basket. Structurally, I do not see a major disruption in the OMCs or Reliance. That said, the broader sentiment--especially around export-driven sectors--could take a short-term hit. Reporting by Nikunj Ahri in New Delhi and Swati Bhat, Aleef Jahan in Mumbai, and Hritam Mukerjee, Bharathrajeswaran, and Vivek M in Benguluru. Writing by Ira Dugal. Editing by Toby Chopra and Alexandra Hudson.
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Oil gains for the first time in five days, world shares mixed
On Wednesday, global shares were mixed, with European shares declining and most major Wall Street indexes gaining, while U.S. Treasury yields mostly increased. U.S. president Donald Trump has issued an executive directive imposing an extra 25% tariff on goods coming from India. He claims that the country imported Russian oil. After four days of falling oil prices, the tariffs and an unexpectedly large draw on U.S. crude oil lifted oil price. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 0.22%, to 929.26. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.14%, to 44,049.38. Meanwhile, the S&P500 edged up by 0.11%, to 6,306.23, and the Nasdaq Composite grew 0.23%, to 20,964.46. The broad STOXX 600 Index in Europe has declined, with the last decline of 0.15%. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan fell by 0.08%, closing at 654.33, while Japan’s Nikkei gained 245.32 points or 0.60% to 40,794.86. Wall Street's performance on Tuesday was impacted by the health of the U.S. Economy. Data showed that services sector activity had unexpectedly plateaued in July. This reinforced the message of Friday's weak jobs data which led markets to increase their bets that the Federal Reserve would cut rates in September. Samy Chaar is the chief economist of Lombard Odier. He said that there's a tug-of war between the concrete signs we have seen that show the U.S. economic slowdown and the fact that rates are going down, which will remove some pressure on valuations. The focus of traders has been on the tariff impact. "The market seems to be more concerned with the fact we won't get maximalist tariffs. But I wonder if they aren't paying enough attention to the fact we could still see more moderate tariffs in the future, such as on pharmaceuticals," Chaar said. Trump said on Tuesday that he will announce tariffs on chips and semiconductors in the coming week. The U.S. will initially impose a'small tariff' on pharmaceutical imports, before increasing the tariff substantially over the next year or two. He said that the U.S. and China were close to a deal on trade, and he planned to meet with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping by the end of this year if a deal was reached. Treasury yields have risen on the government bond markets. This week, the Treasury market will see an increase in supply with the release of $42 billion worth of 10-year bonds on Wednesday and $25 milliards in 30-year bond on Thursday. FedWatch from the CME shows that Fed funds futures indicate a 94% probability of a rate reduction next month. At least two rate cuts are priced in this year. Investors await Trump's choice to fill the upcoming vacancy on Fed board of Governors. Trump announced that a decision would be made shortly, but ruled out Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is currently the Fed's chief and whose tenure ends in 2026. European currencies gained. The euro rose 0.46% to $1.1627. The dollar index fell by 0.31%, to 98.43, measuring the greenback in relation to a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies. Brent oil futures gained 0.92% at $68.26, while U.S. crude oil rose 0.94% to $75.77. The spot gold price fell by 0.14%, to $3376.08 per ounce.
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Trump Administration memo urges countries not to accept plastic production caps under UN Treaty
According to memos and communications obtained by the, the United States sent letters to a few countries to urge them to reject a goal of a global treaty that would include limits on plastic production as well as plastic chemical additives. In communications dated July 25, which were circulated at the beginning of the negotiations on Monday to all countries, the U.S. outlined its red lines in negotiations. This puts it directly against over 100 countries who have supported these measures. As delegates gathered for what was supposed to be the last round of negotiations, hopes for an ambitious global treaty tackling the entire life cycle of plastic pollution, from the production and disposal of waste to polymer production have dimmed. There are still significant differences between the oil-producing nations, who oppose limits on virgin plastic production, fueled by coal and petroleum, and parties like the European Union, small island states and others, who advocate for limits and stronger management of hazardous chemicals and plastic products. The U.S. delegation was led by career State Department employees who represented the Biden Administration. They sent memos to other countries outlining their position, and saying that they will not accept a treaty which addresses plastic pollution upstream. The memo was addressed to unnamed countries due to the sensitive nature of the negotiations. NAIROBI MEETING In a memo, the U.S. admitted that, after attending an initial heads of delegations meeting in Nairobi, from June 30 to 2 July, "we clearly do not see convergence in provisions related to supply of plastics, plastic production or plastic additives, as well as global bans and restriction on products and chemicals (also known by the global list). The spokesperson for the State Department told each party to take appropriate measures in accordance with their national context. The spokesperson stated that some countries may decide to ban certain products, while others might want to concentrate on improving collection and recycling. John Hocevar is the Oceans Campaign Director at Greenpeace USA. He said that the U.S. delegation under Trump was a return to "old school bullying" by the U.S. government, which used its financial power to persuade governments to change their positions in a manner that benefited what the U.S. wanted. In a resolution that was seen by the. Sources familiar with the talks told the newspaper that the U.S. was seeking to revert to the language agreed upon in 2022 for renegotiation of the mandate. The U.S. position is broadly in line with that of the global petrochemicals sector, which had stated similar positions before the talks and several powerful oil and chemical producing countries who have maintained this position during the entire negotiation. Over 100 countries support a global cap on plastic production. The Trump administration in the U.S. has taken numerous measures to Roll back climate and environmental policy It says that industry is burdened with too many obligations. According to the OECD, plastic production will triple without intervention by 2060, choking oceans and harming human health, as well as accelerating climate changes. (Reporting from Washington by Valerie Volcovici and Olivia Le Poidevin, with editing by Ed Osmond.)
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Gold drops on profit-taking, but Trump's Fed picks are in the spotlight
Gold prices dropped on Wednesday, as investors took profits after the prices reached a two-week high the previous session. Meanwhile, the market's attention shifted to the upcoming Federal Reserve nominees of U.S. president Donald Trump. Gold spot fell 0.3% to $3,371.31 an ounce at 0956 am. ET (1356 GMT). U.S. Gold futures dropped 0.2% to $3.427.10. David Meger said, Director of Metals Trading at High Ridge Futures, "We see this as a slight pullback... some profit-taking after the recent rise in prices, during a time of quieter economic conditions, and less need for safe-havens." Gold has gained for three sessions in a row after Friday's disappointing U.S. Employment Growth data. CME FedWatch reports that market participants see a higher probability of a rate cut in September, now at over 87%, up from the earlier 63%. Gold is a non-yielding investment that tends to do well in times of economic uncertainty. Trump announced on Tuesday that he would name a Fed Board candidate by the end the week. He has also narrowed down his options for replacing Chair Jerome Powell. Spot silver increased by 0.1% to $35.86 an ounce. Platinum rose 1% to $1334.05 while palladium fell 2.2% to $1147. This is the lowest level of palladium since July 11. The concern over sanctions against Russia was one of the reasons that palladium and platinum prices have been rising in the past few weeks. The prospect of reduced tensions between Russia and the U.S. has certainly allowed prices to drop in recent sessions," Meger stated. Russia is one of the major suppliers of palladium, platinum and other metals. A Kremlin official said that U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff had "useful and productive" talks with Russian president Vladimir Putin. This comes two days before the deadline Trump set for Russia to accept peace in Ukraine, or face new sanctions. (Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore)
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Markets await the outcome of Putin-Witkoff's meeting to determine the value of the Russian rouble
Markets and the Russian rouble held their breath Wednesday, as they awaited President Vladimir Putin's Kremlin meeting with U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. Witkoff had "useful" and "constructive" talks with Putin, a Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov stated, two days ahead of the deadline set by Donald Trump to have Russia agree to peace in Ukraine, or face new sanctions. LSEG compiled data based on OTC quotes that showed the rouble at 80 per dollar. The yuan was down 0.2% at the Moscow Stock Exchange. The main Russian stock market index fell by 0.15%. Analysts at T-Bank said that the market was awaiting the result of the meeting between Steve Witkoff and Vladimir Putin. Many analysts think that the rouble has been overvalued, and is waiting for a trigger which will cause it to weaken. The Russian currency rose by as much as 45% in value against the dollar in early this year. This was partly due to the expectation of a thaw between Russia and the U.S., as well as the hope for a peaceful resolution in Ukraine. Trump has several options to increase pressure on Russia, if Witkoff does not return with anything. These include possible new sanctions and trade tariffs against Russian oil buyers and the energy and banking sector of Russia. The Kremlin had earlier stated that Russia was immune to sanctions due to its long-term experience. The latest round of U.S. sanction against a Russian energy bank imposed by the United States last year led to a decline in the rouble. Evgeny Loktekhov, a PSB Bank analyst, said that the currency market would be watching for the news of the special representative of the U.S. president and any clarifications regarding the possible U.S. sanction situation. (Reporting and editing by Bernadettebaum; Gleb Bryanski)
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Pinnacle West's quarterly profits fall due to lower demand for power from Arizona's milder weather
Pinnacle West Capital announced a 5.5% drop in its second quarter profit on Wednesday as the mild weather conditions across Arizona reduced the utility's demand for power during the period April-June. The reduced temperatures during the quarter resulted in around 15% less cooling degree-days - a key measure for energy demand - compared to 2024's same period, which featured record-breaking heat. In a press release, CEO Ted Geisler stated that it was not surprising that Arizona's cooler weather led to lower earnings in the third quarter. The results were also affected by higher costs of fuel, maintenance, and borrowing, as well as lower tax credits, and income related to pensions. The total operating expenses of the company rose to $1.05billion during the third quarter from $995.2m during the same time period last year. The total cost of interest has risen to $101.9m, up from $97.9m a year earlier. The Phoenix-based utility reported that net income attributable common shareholders decreased to $192.6 millions, or 1.58 per share for the quarter ending June 30 from last year's 203.8 million, which was $1.76 per per share. Arizona Public Service's main subsidiary in Arizona, which provides service to 1.4 million homes, businesses and other entities in the state, experienced a 2.4% rise in its customers during the third quarter. (Reporting from Bengaluru by Sumit S. Saha; Editing by Vijay Kishore.)
What alternatives could India consider to Russian oil?
India, which imports more than one-third of its oil from Russia, will likely turn to other suppliers in the Middle East, Africa, and elsewhere if forced to reduce Russian imports by possible U.S. sanctions.
Why is India importing Russian oil?
India began buying Russian oil at a discounted price after the West imposed sanctions against Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine 2022.
Russia is now India's top supplier, with 35% of India’s total supplies. This is up from a little over 2% just before the Ukraine war.
The global crude price surged to $137 a barrel in response to fears of a shortage following the Western-led sanctions, before stabilizing. Discounted Russian crude has lowered the costs of Indian refiners. India imports over 85% of the oil it needs.
How much Russian oil does India buy?
Trade data revealed that the world's third largest oil importer and user received approximately 1.75 million barrels of Russian oil per day in the first six months of this year. This is up 1% compared to a year earlier.
Private refiners Nayara Energy, Reliance Industries Ltd, and Reliance Industries Ltd, operators of the largest refinery complex in the world, have long-term contracts with Rosneft.
Why does Trump want India to cut russian oil imports?
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has announced that he will raise the tariffs on goods imported to India from 25% to a substantial amount in light of New Delhi's continuing purchases of Russian crude oil. He warned that countries buying Russian exports may face sanctions if Russia does not reach a deal with Ukraine.
New Delhi has refused to bow down, citing its close economic ties with Russia as well as its long-standing relations.
The country's refiners, however, have stopped buying Russian oil.
What are India's options if it can't buy Russian oil?
India also buys oil in the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, besides Russia.
Indian refiners buy most of their oil from Middle Eastern producers through annual agreements that allow them to request additional supplies every month. Since Trump's warning about sanctions, refiners bought crude oil from the United States as well as the Middle East, West Africa and Azerbaijan.
Hardeep Singh Puri, the oil minister, says that India's supply sources have been diversified to around 40 countries. He also adds that Guyana, Brazil, and Canada are supplying more products on the market.
(source: Reuters)