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Will they or will they not?
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Investors wore their 'risk-on' hats on Monday as the prospect of an 'end to the Iran war, and opening the Strait of Hormuz was ever closer. Stocks in Tokyo and Taipei reached record highs and oil prices and U.S. dollars fell. There are also doubts, particularly after U.S. president Donald Trump downplayed hopes of an imminent breakthrough. He noted that he had instructed his representatives to not rush into any deal with Iran, even though pressure is increasing to find a resolution. Liquidity will be low as traders focus on the headlines. Investors are jittery over the will-they-won’t-they saga, but?in the end, it is a question of when and not if a settlement is reached to end this nearly three-month conflict. Shipping data revealed that two liquefied gas tankers were exiting the Strait of?Hormuz. Meanwhile, a supertanker carrying Iraqi crude bound for China had left the Gulf after being stranded in the Gulf for almost?three months. The reality is, a resolution will not 'push oil prices?back to the levels before the war. And the energy supply chain may take some time to recover. So inflation concerns are going nowhere, and neither are calls for rates that are higher, longer. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to increase interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2027. This would be a "stark reversal" from the two rate reductions that were anticipated this year, before the war started. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact U.S.-Iran talks
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Chinese coking coal prices jump as a deadly mine accident tightens the supply outlook
Prices of Chinese coking coal soared to their highest level in almost two weeks on Monday, after a 'wave' of safety checks in coal mines in response to a fatal mine accident that occurred in a key production hub. This triggered expectations for a tightening in supply. The gas explosion that occurred at the Liushenyu Coal Mine in the northern province of Shanxi on Friday night has claimed the lives of 82 people. This is the deadliest mining accident to have happened in the country since 2009. Local officials announced at a Sunday news conference that the mine belongs to Shanxi Tongzhou Coal?Coking Group. All four mines of this group have been shut down and their?executives arrested. The People's Daily, a state-run newspaper, published an editorial about the accident in its front page Sunday morning. It called for more attention to safety and "completely reversing the tendency" to prioritize development over safety. The price of the?most traded coking coal contract at the Dalian Commodity Exchange has risen by 7.97%, to $1266.5 ($186.78 per metric tonne), its highest level since last May 12. The DCE coke contract with the highest volume surged 7.99%, to 1,879 Yuan per ton. This is its highest level since May 6. Mysteel, a consultancy, found that other coal mines have stopped production in Shanxi for a period of?three to five? days due to safety checks. This would result in reducing the raw supply of 'coking coal' by 288,000 tons / day. The iron ore price also increased, with the DCE contract at 0345 GMT up 0.5% to?796.5 per tonne. By 0335 GMT, the benchmark?June Iron Ore traded on the Singapore Exchange had risen by 0.96% to $107.2 per ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks gained on the higher raw materials costs. Rebar grew 1.45%; hot-rolled coil climbed 1.39%; wire rod jumped 1.19%; and stainless steel grew 0.3%. $1 = 6.7806 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu S. Sahu; Amy Lv, Lewis Jakcson)
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Indian retailers increase fuel prices for the fourth time in a row to curb losses
Dealers said that India's state-owned fuel retailers raised diesel prices by 2.71 rupees ($0.0283) and petrol by 2.61 rupees per litre, marking the fourth increase in a month to recover some losses caused by higher crude oil costs as a result of the Iran War. Indian state fuel retailers who control 90% of the Indian market began increasing pump prices on May 15, after elections were completed in certain key states. Since then, the state companies have increased?the price of petrol and diesel by approximately 7.8% and 8.6% respectively. New Delhi petrol will cost 102.12 rupees per litre, and diesel 95.20 rupees. India, which is the third largest oil consumer and importer in the world, has been hit by rising crude prices as well as supply disruptions following the closure of Strait of Hormuz. New Delhi also implemented austerity measures in order to curb fuel consumption and control its oil import bill, as policymakers prepare for a prolonged shock. Prices vary across states because of local taxes. State retailers have also suffered a rise in?fuel losses as customers switch to retail pumps that are cheaper, leading to shortages. IOC said in a statement on Saturday that its retail sales for the period of May 1-22 were up?by 18% compared to a year earlier and petrol sales had increased by 14%. $1 = 95.6890 Indian Rupees (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Sonali Paul and Nidhi Palyekar from New Delhi)
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Russell: China's thermal coal production drops, but prices of imported coal in Asia rise amid the Iran war.
Although the Iran war has impacted crude oil and natural gas prices, its impact on coal has been muted. Prices for thermal grades are quietly rising to multi-year heights. The conflict between the United States of America and Iran has led to the loss of about 10% of world crude oil, and a fifth of LNG, but thermal coal supplies remain largely unaffected. Even though the cost of shipping and producing has increased due to higher fuel prices. Coal prices are not solely driven by the?Iran War. Other factors, such as low Chinese production and Indonesian regulations, may be more influential. According to commodity analysts Kpler, Asia's seaborne thermal coal imports are expected to have their best month since December in May. The imports of thermal coal in Asia are expected to hit 76.26 millions metric tons by May, up 23 percent from April. This is also higher than the 72.83 million that were imported in May 2012. All of the top buyers in the region have seen gains. China, the largest coal importer in the world, is on course to receive 22.63 millions tons of seaborne thermal coal, up from 16.3 million tons in April, and the highest since January. China's appetite to import is driven by a weaker domestic production. April production was 385.63 millions tons, down from 440.62 in March and also 1% lower than April of last year. China's first four-month output fell by 0.1%, to 1.58 billion tonnes. The fact that China's thermal electricity production, which is largely coal-fired?rose by 3.6% during the first four month of the year suggests that the supply-demand balance in China has been tightened, encouraging imports. The Shanxi coal mine disaster, the worst in 17 years at a metallurgical mine that killed 82 people last Friday may cause a further shortage of coal as authorities increase safety inspections in both thermal coal and coking coal mining. China's increasing import demand has helped to lift prices?of grades it seeks. The commodity price reporting -agency Argus assessed Indonesian coal, which had an energy content 4,200 kilocalories/kilogram (kcal/kg), at $64.43 a tonne in the week ending May 22. This was a three year high and up by 42% from the end of last. Kpler predicts that India, as the second largest importer of thermal coal, will see arrivals of 13,78 million tons in May. This is the highest since June last years and 7.3% more than the 12,84 million recorded in April. Last week, heat waves drove electricity demand to new records. This boosted demand for coal-fired generators. INDONESIA CHANGES The world's largest coal exporter, Indonesia, announced regulatory changes last week that will have a significant impact on the way cargoes are traded. Indonesia intends to "take control" of the coal trade, by directing exports via a state-owned company that will control contracts and price. The government has said that it will honor existing long-term agreements, but it has also stated it reserves the rights to review the prices of such deals. By implementing a state control on exports, the government hopes to?stop under-invoicing' and collect more revenue. It's possible that the trade flow will be affected if there is still uncertainty about how the new system works in practice. Japan's thermal coal imports are expected to increase from 6.63 millions tons in April to 7.59 million tonnes in May. South Korea's arrivals will be 6.73 million tons, which is the highest since January, and up from 4.79 million tons in April. Both countries in North Asia are among the top four coal importers, and they are also the best positioned to switch from LNG imported natural gas to coal-fired electricity generation. Due to the Iran War, both spot and contract LNG prices are likely to rise sharply. Japan and South Korea may therefore seek ways to maximize coal-fired power generation. The price of high grade Australian thermal coal has risen as a result. The weekly assessment of Newcastle?Port rose to $133.09 per ton during the week ending May 22. This is up from $131.80 and only slightly below the 18-month-old high of $140.53 set in early April. Australia is the second largest coal exporter and may be in a better position to capitalize on any disruptions to Indonesian coal shipments due to regulatory changes. Its lower-grade coal could replace Indonesian coal. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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New Zealand Pro surfers halted by 'wildlife injury' to photographer
The World Surf League event was put on hold for several hours after a photographer who was shooting the event suffered an injury from what organizers believe to be a shark or sea lion bite. The WSL announced that the New Zealand Pro semi final between Brazilian world champions Yago Dore and Italo Fereira in Raglan had been halted because the in-water camera needed medical attention after suffering puncture wounds. Renato Hickel, WSL Tours and Competition Vice President said that "this morning one member of the water photography group suffered a wildlife injury." He's fine, he is on his way to a hospital. He is in stable condition. We're in constant contact with him." Hinkle told the?event broadcast earlier that they weren't sure what type of animal caused the injury. At this point, we are not sure if it was a sea-lion or a shark. He said that the doctor who was on scene was inclined to believe it was a seal instead of a large shark. "Nevertheless, it was very frightening." The organizers will assess the situation on Monday and aim to resume competition at 1 p.m. (0100 GMT). Animal attacks at surf events are not uncommon, but they do happen. In 2015, world champion Mick Fanning famously wrestled with a shark during the final of WSL event in South Africa's Jeffreys Bay. Raglan, which hosted a world championship tour event for the first time ever, was short of its famously long left hand point break waves?for the majority of?the ten days leading up to the event. Monday's conditions were some of the best during the waiting period. Dora was ahead with a 6.33 to Ferreira's 3 pointer when their match was stopped. Morgan Cibilic, an Australian, had earlier defeated Griffin Colapinto of California with a total of '15.34' to a score 12.20. This earned him a place in the finals. Carissa Moore, Hawaii's Olympic champion and five-times world champion will face California's Sawyer Lindblad for the women's title. (Reporting and editing by Nick Mulvenney; Lincoln Feast)
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Oil and dollar decline on Middle East Peace Hopes
U.S. Stock Futures climbed on Monday, while oil and the dollar fell. The prospect of an agreement to end the Iran War boosted risk appetite. However, a lack of clarity about when the 'Strait of Hormuz' would open kept enthusiasm in check. Energy prices have soared in response to the nearly three-month war in the Middle East. Worries about inflation and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which most world energy passes, has impacted global rates. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he told his representatives on Sunday not to rush any deal with Iran. His administration also played down expectations of an imminent breakthrough. Trump said just a day before that Washington and Iran had "largely" negotiated a peace agreement that would reopen this waterway that, prior to the conflict, carried about one-fifth the global oil and LNG shipments. Brent crude futures fell over 4%, to $98.83 per barrel. U.S. West Texas intermediate CLc1 also dropped over 4%, to $92.03 per barrel. The euro rose 0.37% to $1.1646 while the Japanese yen climbed to 158.85 U.S. dollars in early trading, as the safe-haven dollar lost some of its recent gains. Nasdaq and S&P were both up 0.6%. Nick Twidale is the chief market analyst for ATFX Global. He expects that on Monday, investors will embrace more risk, but they won't surge higher until it has been confirmed that reopening of?the Strait?of?Hormuz. He said, "We need to reach an agreement in the next sessions because we know that there are still major sticking points." Nikkei, the Japanese stock market index, was positioned for a strong opening to Monday's trading session. Commonwealth Bank of Australia's strategists stated in a recent note that the most important issue for financial markets is when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. They asked: "Under which conditions will the?Strait reopen, and how long will it take to repair production and infrastructure in order to ramp up energy production and other goods back to pre-war level?" (Reporting and editing by Stephen Coates in Singapore, Ankur Banerjee)
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Oil drops to 2-week lows as US-Iran is seen moving closer towards peace deal
Oil prices fell to a 'two-week low' on Monday, despite the fact that U.S. President Barack Obama and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani remain at odds on key issues. These include the blockades of the Strait of Hormuz which continue to limit oil supplies from the Middle East. Brent crude futures fell $4.71 or 4.55% to $98.83 per barrel at 2234 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was $92.03 per barrel, down $4.57 or 4.73%. Both contracts reached their lowest levels since May 7 earlier in the session. On Saturday, U.S. president Donald?Trump stated that Washington and Iran had "largely" negotiated a memorandum of agreement on a deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz carried one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG shipments. Trump said on Sunday that he told his representatives to not rush into any Iran deal. MST Marquee Analyst?Saul Kavonic? said: "Despite all the caveats, risks, and concerns that remain with the peace deal, and Strait of Hormuz?there is some light at?the?end of?the tunnel, which may bring some relief to oil prices in the near future." Analysts 'expect it to take months for oil flow through the strait to return back to normal, and for damaged oil-and-gas facilities to be repaired. Reporting by Florence Tan, Editing by Cynthia Osterman & Edmund Klamann
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There are 21 missing people in the Philippines after a building collapse that has left at least one person dead.
Authorities confirmed that at least one person died after a building collapsed on Sunday in the Philippines. Rescuers were searching the rubble to find 21 people listed as missing. Officials have launched an investigation into the collapse of a multi-storey structure in Angeles, north of the capital, Manila. Rescuers were seen scrambling over concrete slabs and mangled metal as they searched for survivors. The sifting was done with the help of'rescue dogs', heartbeat detection devices, and heavy equipment. RESCUE EFFORT CONTINUES The authorities confirmed that the 65-year old Malaysian had died. His body was recovered from the neighbouring hotel, which had also been damaged by the collapse. Maria Leah Sajili told a media briefing that five of the 21 people reported missing were trapped. The status of two of the five was immediately unclear. Sajili warned, however, that the operations will become more difficult after dark. Officials informed reporters that the building's planning records indicated that it was to be a "nine-storey condominium-hotel" under the permit approved, but that a swimming pool was being built on the 10th floor. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Additional reporting and Eloisa Loza; Editing and rewriting by William Mallard, Helen Popper and Christian Schmollinger)
Trackers report that Iran has adapted to maintaining oil exports in conflict.
Two vessel tracking companies said that Iran maintains crude oil supplies by loading tanks one at atime and moving floating storage closer to China. The country is trying to keep its main source of income while being attacked by Israel.
The conflict that erupted between Iran and Israel last week is a new obstacle for Iran. It uses a fleet of shadow tankers to hide their origins and avoid U.S. sanctions imposed in 2018 due to its nuclear program.
Iran is the third largest producer of crude oil in OPEC. Most of its exports go to China. The trackers reported that the conflict with Israel has not affected the loadings.
The latest data from analytics company Kpler shows that Iran has so far loaded 2.2 millions barrels of crude oil per day, a record for the past five weeks.
The missile exchanges between Israel and Iran have targeted energy infrastructure in both countries. This includes the Haifa refinery in Israel, as well as the South Pars Gas Field in Iran. However, Iran's main crude exporting facility on Kharg Island has so far been spared.
Homayoun Falikshai is the head of crude analysis at Kpler, a tracking company.
Kharg Island lies 30 km south-west of the Middle Eastern country's south-west coast, deep in the Persian Gulf.
Falakshai, referring the National Iranian Oil Co., Iran's oil company, said that "NIOC" may think it is safer than the other main jetty on the west side in open water.
The large oil tankers have now begun to approach Kharg Island, one at a moment, and the second jetty, on the western side, has been left unused for a few days. 15-16 other Iranian tankers are scattered throughout the Persian Gulf.
The International Energy Agency reported on Tuesday that Iranian oil exports were steady this year, at around 1.7m bpd despite U.S. Sanctions on Chinese Customers since March.
Ship tracking firm Vortexa reported that Iran has moved a part of its 40-million barrel floating storage fleet closer to China in order to minimize the impact on buyers.
Vortexa reported that ten tankers carrying 8 million barrels each of Iranian crude oil are now stationed offshore China. They are moving from Singapore, where another 20 million barrels were located.
Vortexa said that the remaining 12 million barrels or so were in the Persian Gulf when the month began, but the current location of these barrels was unknown.
Tankers can load crude oil into floating storage without having to go to a specific destination.
Emma Li, Vortexa’s senior China analyst, said: "Iran is moving barrels to the east even without orders in order to strategically position the barrels nearer to end-buyers at a time when geopolitical risks are high."
Vortexa said that moving barrels closer would help offset the disruption of Iranian loadings for up to two weeks. (Reporting and editing by Alex Lawler. Dmitry Zhdannikov, Elaine Hardcastle, and Robert Harvey)
(source: Reuters)