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Sources say that China has set import quotas on naphtha for 2026.
Three trade sources said that China had allocated naphtha import allowances to the 'key importers' in the first batch for 2026. The volumes should remain essentially the same from this year onwards. According to two people, the state-owned Sinopec (22,4 million barrels) as well as CNOOC (2.11 million metric tonnes) were each allocated 2.52 million metrictons. One of the sources said that Ningbo Zhongjin Petrochemical owned by Rongsheng Petrochemical was allocated 750,000 tons. Sources declined to name themselves as they were not authorized to speak in public. Requests for comments from the Ministry of Commerce, Sinopec CNOOC, and Rongsheng Petrochemical were not immediately answered. Beijing controls the imports of naphtha (as a feedstock important for petrochemical production) via a quota-based system similar to that used in its crude and refined product exports. Sources said that Exxon Mobil, BASF and other foreign cracker companies would also receive significant quantities in the first batch. However, the exact volumes are not yet known. BASF announced on November 5 that it is in the process to start up its new 1 million-ton per annum?crackers and derivatives units in Zhanjiang in southern Guangdong Province. China imported 15.44 million tons in the first 11 months of this year. The 2025 quota is about 24 million tons. The 2025 quota had not been fully used. One of the sources stated that Beijing will release the second batch 2026 import quotas for naphtha in the middle next year. (Reporting and editing by Florence Tan, Thomas Derpinghaus and Siyi Liu; Reporting by Trixie YAP, Siyi Liu, and Sam Li)
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Copper to have biggest annual increase in 16 years and be the best performing base metal
The copper price was on track to make its largest annual gain since 2009. This makes it the best performing base metal. Supply concerns and the?prospects for surging demand due to the AI boom and the energy transition fueled a blistering rise. Red metal is a material that's widely used in construction and power sectors. It's gaining a lot of?investor? interest due to its role in energy transformation technologies, and the expanding infrastructure for artificial Intelligence and data centres. The benchmark three-month price of copper on the London Metal Exchange dipped by 0.49% at $12,497 a metric ton as of 0700 GMT. However, the LME was still set to finish the year with more than a 42% increase. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract ended the day with a gain of 0.84%, or $14,057.78 per ton. This is a 33.27% increase this year. The rally in copper was fueled by mine?disruptions such as the suspension of Freeport’s flagship Grasberg Mine in Indonesia. The London benchmark hit a new record high of $12960 this week. Meanwhile, the Shanghai contract reached a new record of 10,2660 Yuan last week. As a result of the CME premium over the LME, which is largely driven by U.S. Tariffs, LME inventories have been depleted and copper stocks have been shifted to COMEX sheds. Copper stocks in COMEX warehouses According to the Tuesday exchange, the number of tons traded has risen to an all-time high, 490,722 tonnes, a 426.75% increase so far this year. The LME reported on warrant copper Volume at 149 475 tons, a decline of 44,91% on Monday. Supply concerns were also raised by China's plan for regulating its ever-expanding capacity to smelt copper and the top Chinese smelters plan to reduce output in 2026. Tin was on track to be the second biggest gainer among base metals. Benchmark LME three-month tin fell by 1.67% but was expected to end the year in a nearly 42% increase. Shanghai's most active tin posted a daily decline of 0.45% but ended the year with a gain of 30.42%. Tin gained as a result of supply disruptions from?Myanmar & Indonesia, which tightened flow into China's top consumer. Aluminium also won in 2025 due to China's cap on smelting. The London benchmark rose 0.44% and was on track for an annual gain of more than 17%, while the Shanghai contract ended the day up 2.25, bringing the year to a 14.65% increase. Nickel is also expected to have its first annual gain since 2023 as the Indonesian Government's plan of reducing 2026 mining quotas to support prices fueled a dramatic rally. London nickel fell 1.35% to $16,600 per ton on Wednesday, but is still on track to finish the year with a gain of more than 8%. Shanghai nickel closed the daytime trade up 2.44%, at 132.850 yuan per ton. This represents a 4.93% annual gain. Zinc fell 0.24%, while lead rose 0.22%. Lead fell 0.66% and zinc 0.06% among the SHFE base metals.
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Indonesia nickel smelter forecasts ore demand will reach 350 million tons by 2026
Arif Perdana Kumara, chairman of Indonesia's Nickel Smelter Association?FINI, said that the association expects domestic smelters to demand nickel ore in excess of 350 million metric tonnes next year. He said that the demand outlook is for an annual growth of between 40 and 50 million tons. New production capacity will be online by next year. Indonesia, with the largest nickel ore reserves in the world, announced plans to reduce mineral production quotas for next year to boost prices and government revenues. Details are not yet available. Arif stated that the 'policy' could cause ore shortages in smelting plants and force them to import from elsewhere. FINI estimates that 15 million tons (ore) of nickel will be imported from the Philippines by 2025. The domestic production of ore has only reached 85% of its approved quota. Nickel ore imports are expected to be the primary balancing mechanism. He said that imports could increase to around 50 million tons in 2026. He said that imports from the Philippines, New Caledonia, and the Solomon Islands would likely be the most popular. However, the higher costs of shipping and logistics will not allow all the demand to be met. Some smelters may be forced to reduce the capacity of their refineries by 15% to 18%. Expectations that Indonesian ore production could be reduced have boosted global nickel prices.
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Copper to have biggest annual increase in 16 years and be the best performing base metal
The copper price was set to make its largest annual gain since 2009. This makes it the best performing base metal. Supply concerns and the prospect of surging demand due to the AI boom and energy transition fueled a blistering rise. Investors are increasingly interested in red metal, which is widely used in construction and the power sector. It also plays a critical role in energy transition technologies, and in expanding infrastructures for artificial intelligence, data centres, and other advanced technologies. The benchmark three-month price of copper on the London Metal Exchange dipped by 0.16% at $12,538 a metric ton as of 0330 GMT but was still set to finish the year with more than a 43% increase. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract rose 1.28%, to 98670 yuan (14,118.71 dollars) per ton, and was on track for a gain of more than 33% annually. The rally was fueled by mine disruptions including the suspension of Freeport's flagship Grasberg Mine in Indonesia. The London benchmark hit a record high of $12960 this week. Meanwhile, the Shanghai contract reached a'record' of 10,2660 Yuan last week. LME inventories have been drained by the expectation of tightened refined copper supplies outside the U.S. Copper in COMEX Warehouses According to the Tuesday exchange, this year's shipments have increased by 426.75%, reaching a record high of 490 722?tons. The LME reported on warrant copper Volume at 149 475 tons, a decline of 44,91% on Monday. Supply concerns were also raised by China's plan for regulating its ever-expanding capacity to smelt copper and the top Chinese smelters plan to reduce output in 2026. Tin was on track to be the second biggest gainer among base metals. The benchmark three-month LME Tin declined by 1.38% but is expected to end the year in a greater than 42% increase. The most active tin in Shanghai was up 0.04% and poised to achieve a gain of nearly 30%. Tin's gains came as supply disruptions from Myanmar and Indonesia restricted?flows to top consumer China. Aluminium also won in 2025 due to China's cap on smelting. The London benchmark rose by 0.18% Wednesday, and is on course for an annual gain of nearly 17%. Meanwhile, the Shanghai contract grew by 1.78%. Nickel also was set to record a gain for the year, its first one since 2023. The plan of the Indonesian government to reduce mining quotas in 2026 to support prices fueled a dramatic rally. London nickel fell 2.28% to $16,445 per ton on Wednesday, but was still on track to finish the year with a gain of more than 7%. Shanghai nickel rose by 1.34%, to 131.420 yuan per ton. It is expected to gain 2% annually. Zinc and lead fell 0.37% among other LME base materials. Lead and zinc, among the SHFE base metals fell by 1.69% and 0.21% respectively. Wednesday, December 31, DATA/EVENTS (1330 GMT) US Initial Jobless Clm 27, Dec w/e
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Indian shares edge higher in the final session of the year on steel tariff increase
India's equity benchmarks rose Wednesday, led primarily by metal stocks, after the government imposed an import tariff of three years on certain?steel? products. However, concerns about foreign fund outflows limited the?gains? in the final session of the year. As of 10:03 a.m. IST, the Nifty 50 index increased by 0.21% and the BSE Sensex gained 0.12%. At the opening, 14 of 16 major sectors were up. Small-caps and midcaps both rose by about?0.6%. The metal index rose by 1.3%. Steelmakers like Tata Steel, Jindal Steel and JSW Steel saw their shares rise by 2%, 4.6%, and 3% respectively. The import tariff of three years is designed to protect domestic industry by curbing the cheap shipments coming from China. The Nifty and Sensex have gained about 10% - and 8.5% - so far in 2025. They are on track to achieve their 10th'straight' year of gains. Supportive?policies, and early signs that earnings were recovering, helped the markets recover from a dip caused by trade concerns and earnings moderating. After 14 months, the benchmarks reached record highs again in November. The two companies did consolidate in December and lost about 1% each due to persistent foreign sales. Foreign investors have sold shares worth $2.1billion in the last month. Recordings Shares worth $18.5 billion sold by 2025. VK Vijayakumar is the chief investment strategist of Geojit Investments. He said that the markets were impacted by the continued foreign selling and the lack of positive news regarding the India-U.S. Trade Front. He added that the coming days would be critical for determining near-term market trajectory. This will include auto sales for December, results for quarterly periods, and the union budget. Among the individual stocks, RITES Engineering and Consulting jumped 6.5% following a $3.6 million order. Dynacons Systems, a provider of IT services and system integration, surged by 12.5% following the award of a Reserve Bank of India software project worth 2,49 billion rupees. (Reporting and editing by Vivek M and Bharathrajeswaran, Harikrishnan Nair, and Janane Venkatraman).
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Silver heads have the largest gain in annual gains, and gold is set to be the best year for nearly half a centenary
Gold was stable on Wednesday, but it remained on track for its biggest annual gain in more than four decades. Other 'precious metals' fell sharply, as investors took profits following a record-breaking rally. As of 0404 GMT, spot gold was unchanged at $4345.75 an ounce after reaching a record-high of $4,549.71 last Friday. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery fell 0.5% to $4.365.0/oz. Bullion prices have risen 66% since 2025. This is the largest annual increase since 1979, when geopolitical forces, such as the Iranian Revolution, pushed up prices. The gold rally is being driven by interest rates cuts and bets on further easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve. It has also been driven by geopolitical conflict, central bank demand, and rising exchange-traded fund holdings. Analysts said the recent drops in precious metals are linked to technical factors and thin trading. Ilya Spirak, global macro head at Tastylive said: "CME announced a rise in the margins for metals futures, and that was an extremely painful adjustment (for precious metals on Sunday)." The U.S. Dollar rose to its highest level in more than a week, making bullion priced in greenbacks more expensive for holders of other currencies. The minutes of the Fed's meeting in December showed that policymakers only agreed to lower interest rates after a nuanced discussion, but traders are expecting two more cuts next year. Gold is often supported by low interest rates because it does not yield. "Maybe by the end of first quarter of 2026, we will see gold testing $5,000. Spivak stated that it appears the catalysts which have been driving gold prices over the last year are now self-sustaining. Spot silver fell 4.5% on Wednesday to $73.06 an ounce after reaching a record high of $83.62 per ounce the day before. Silver is on track to have its best ever year, with a gain of over 150% compared to gold. Metals have reached multiple milestones in 2025. This is due to its status as a vital U.S. Mineral, the supply constraints, the low inventories, and the increasing industrial and investment demand. Spot platinum fell 6.1%, to $2,065.80 an ounce, after hitting a record high of $2478.50 per ounce on Monday. The price is up more than 120% this year, the highest gain in its history. Palladium dropped 7.1%, to $1,496.75 an ounce. It is set to end the year with a 65% gain, its best result in 15 years. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Alan Barona and Sonia Cheema)
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Trump vetoes first measures in his second term, including a Florida tribal measure and a Colorado water project
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has vetoed an important drinking water project in Colorado. This prompted immediate condemnation by Colorado Republican 'lawmaker'?Lauren Boebert. Boebert is a former MAGA ally and recently challenged Trump on his handling of the Jeffrey Epstein documents. Late on Tuesday, the White House announced Trump vetoed the Finish the Arkansas Valley Conduit Act (AVC), which had been unanimously approved by the House of Representatives as well as the Senate. A second measure, affecting a Florida-based project, was also rescinded. These were Trump's first two vetoes during his second term. The Colorado project was vetoed after Trump's promise to retaliate for the state's refusal to release his ally Tina Peters, despite Trump's attempt to pardoned her earlier in the?month, and Boebert’s action to force government files on the late sexual offender Epstein to be released. Peters, former Colorado county clerk is currently serving a 9-year sentence in prison after being convicted of state charges for allegedly tampering illegally with voting machines during the 2020 presidential elections. Trump's pardon only covers federal charges, and the state has refused to release Peters. Boebert condemned Trump's veto in a statement made on X. She said that the bill was "completely noncontroversial and bipartisan." Boebert added that she hoped "this veto had nothing to do" with political retaliation because of her calling out corruption. The bill was intended to fund a long-term project to provide safe drinking water in 39 communities on Colorado's Eastern Plains where groundwater levels are high and wells can sometimes release?radioactivity in the water supply. In his letter sent to Congress, Trump stated that he had vetoed this measure in order to "prevent American taxpayers from financing expensive and unreliable policy." It wasn't immediately clear whether the Republican leaders in Congress would allow for a vote overturning Trump's veto. Boebert, Marjorie Taylor Greene and other Republican legislators played a major role in obtaining the Justice Department's files about Epstein. Trump had opposed the release of these files for several months before he finally relented. White House: Trump also vetoed the measure that would have spent $14 million to protect an area called Osceola Camp in the Everglades National Park, which is inhabited members of the Miccosukee Tribe of Native Americans. This tribe has been fighting Trump's "Alligator alcatraz" makeshift detention center for immigrants. The detention center has been shut down by a federal judge. Trump claimed that the tribe had never been authorized to live in the Osceola Camp region, and his administration wouldn't support special interest projects, particularly those that were "unaligned with his immigration policy". Reporting by Andrea Shalal, Kanishka Singh and Caitlin Feast; editing by Caitlin Feast and Lincoln Feast.
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Iron ore prices fall as demand falls amid positive signs
Dalian iron-ore futures fell on Wednesday for the second consecutive session due to a weakening of steel demand. However, better than expected factory data from China's top consumer helped limit losses. As of 0247 GMT the?most-traded iron ore contract for May on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange?traded at?0.94% less than its previous price, which was 786.5 Yuan ($112.55) per metric ton. However, it has gained 9.71% in this year. The benchmark iron ore for February on the Singapore Exchange, however, traded at 0.07% more, $105.75 per ton. This represents a 10.12% gain so far in this year. Everbright Securities in China said that domestic steel demand has declined rapidly from month to month. It expects the trend to continue. The broker said that "the rapid decline in domestic steel demand will dominate prices on the medium-term". China Iron & Steel Association has echoed this sentiment, stating that cold weather in northern China will cause construction to stop. They also said there are signs of a weakening downstream industry. The rise in inventories also impacted prices. Mysteel data showed that the total stocks of imported iron ore fines for blast furnace steel production in China increased by 554,700 tonnes, or 4.6% from December 24. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which measures the purchasing power of Chinese businesses, showed unexpected growth in China during December, ending eight months of decline. The National Bureau of Statistics survey on Wednesday showed that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), which measures the level of buying by manufacturers, rose from 49.2 to 50.1 points in December, a significant increase from the previous month. This is above the 50 point mark separating expansion from contraction. In a poll, it beat the analysts' prediction of?49.2. It is a positive sign for China's manufacturing industry, as it is the largest steel consumer in the world. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, were mixed on the DCE. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. Rebar fell by 0.54%; hot-rolled coils dropped by 0.52%; wire rods lost 0.56%, and stainless steel firmed up 0.23%.
Robex, a Canadian company, has approved a $1.45 billion merger between Predictive Discover and Robex in Australia
Predictive Discovery, an Australian company, said that shareholders of Canada’s Robex Resources had approved a merger worth A$2,17 billion ($1,45 billion), paving the path to creating a mid-tier gold producer in West Africa.
Around 94.54% of the votes cast at Robex's meeting special backed the agreement under which Predictive acquired the Canadian gold mining company, with Robex shareholders getting 7.862 fully-paid ordinary shares in Predictive per Robex share.
After the merger, Robex shareholders would own approximately 46% of combined entity.
The tie-up will create a "more diversified" gold producer in West Africa.
Combining
Predictive's Bankan Project with Robex Kiniero Mine, which recently began commissioning activities.
The assets are located only 30? These assets, located just 30?
Synergies
According to LSEG, the merged entity's market capitalization would be around $2.4 billion.
The company's shares fell as much as 5.2% in the morning session, before closing the day down 3.9%.
Investors are not influenced by headlines, but rather uncertainty. Greg Boland is a market strategy consultant with Moomoo Australia. He said that the fall in share prices reflects dilution, integration and execution risk, as well as profit-taking following a strong rise in gold.
Predictive Mining, based in Western Australia was once the center of a possible bidding war with Perseus Mining, another miner, also circling around the firm.
Perseus, the gold miner, had made a bid for Predictive in December that valued it at A$2.1billion, which was higher than Robex’s A$1.32billion offer from earlier in October.
On December 11, Perseus ceased its pursuit of Predictive when Robex, a rival bidder, increased his offer to A$2,17 billion.
The deal is made?during a period of surging gold price, which has repeatedly reached record highs. The gold bullion gained more than 60% this year, and was on track to have its best year ever.
(source: Reuters)