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Indonesia nickel smelter forecasts ore demand will reach 350 million tons by 2026
Arif Perdana Kumara, chairman of Indonesia's Nickel Smelter Association?FINI, said that the association expects domestic smelters to demand nickel ore in excess of 350 million metric tonnes next year. He said that the demand outlook is for an annual growth of between 40 and 50 million tons. New production capacity will be online by next year. Indonesia, with the largest nickel ore reserves in the world, announced plans to reduce mineral production quotas for next year to boost prices and government revenues. Details are not yet available. Arif stated that the 'policy' could cause ore shortages in smelting plants and force them to import from elsewhere. FINI estimates that 15 million tons (ore) of nickel will be imported from the Philippines by 2025. The domestic production of ore has only reached 85% of its approved quota. Nickel ore imports are expected to be the primary balancing mechanism. He said that imports could increase to around 50 million tons in 2026. He said that imports from the Philippines, New Caledonia, and the Solomon Islands would likely be the most popular. However, the higher costs of shipping and logistics will not allow all the demand to be met. Some smelters may be forced to reduce the capacity of their refineries by 15% to 18%. Expectations that Indonesian ore production could be reduced have boosted global nickel prices.
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Copper to have biggest annual increase in 16 years and be the best performing base metal
The copper price was set to make its largest annual gain since 2009. This makes it the best performing base metal. Supply concerns and the prospect of surging demand due to the AI boom and energy transition fueled a blistering rise. Investors are increasingly interested in red metal, which is widely used in construction and the power sector. It also plays a critical role in energy transition technologies, and in expanding infrastructures for artificial intelligence, data centres, and other advanced technologies. The benchmark three-month price of copper on the London Metal Exchange dipped by 0.16% at $12,538 a metric ton as of 0330 GMT but was still set to finish the year with more than a 43% increase. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract rose 1.28%, to 98670 yuan (14,118.71 dollars) per ton, and was on track for a gain of more than 33% annually. The rally was fueled by mine disruptions including the suspension of Freeport's flagship Grasberg Mine in Indonesia. The London benchmark hit a record high of $12960 this week. Meanwhile, the Shanghai contract reached a'record' of 10,2660 Yuan last week. LME inventories have been drained by the expectation of tightened refined copper supplies outside the U.S. Copper in COMEX Warehouses According to the Tuesday exchange, this year's shipments have increased by 426.75%, reaching a record high of 490 722?tons. The LME reported on warrant copper Volume at 149 475 tons, a decline of 44,91% on Monday. Supply concerns were also raised by China's plan for regulating its ever-expanding capacity to smelt copper and the top Chinese smelters plan to reduce output in 2026. Tin was on track to be the second biggest gainer among base metals. The benchmark three-month LME Tin declined by 1.38% but is expected to end the year in a greater than 42% increase. The most active tin in Shanghai was up 0.04% and poised to achieve a gain of nearly 30%. Tin's gains came as supply disruptions from Myanmar and Indonesia restricted?flows to top consumer China. Aluminium also won in 2025 due to China's cap on smelting. The London benchmark rose by 0.18% Wednesday, and is on course for an annual gain of nearly 17%. Meanwhile, the Shanghai contract grew by 1.78%. Nickel also was set to record a gain for the year, its first one since 2023. The plan of the Indonesian government to reduce mining quotas in 2026 to support prices fueled a dramatic rally. London nickel fell 2.28% to $16,445 per ton on Wednesday, but was still on track to finish the year with a gain of more than 7%. Shanghai nickel rose by 1.34%, to 131.420 yuan per ton. It is expected to gain 2% annually. Zinc and lead fell 0.37% among other LME base materials. Lead and zinc, among the SHFE base metals fell by 1.69% and 0.21% respectively. Wednesday, December 31, DATA/EVENTS (1330 GMT) US Initial Jobless Clm 27, Dec w/e
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Indian shares edge higher in the final session of the year on steel tariff increase
India's equity benchmarks rose Wednesday, led primarily by metal stocks, after the government imposed an import tariff of three years on certain?steel? products. However, concerns about foreign fund outflows limited the?gains? in the final session of the year. As of 10:03 a.m. IST, the Nifty 50 index increased by 0.21% and the BSE Sensex gained 0.12%. At the opening, 14 of 16 major sectors were up. Small-caps and midcaps both rose by about?0.6%. The metal index rose by 1.3%. Steelmakers like Tata Steel, Jindal Steel and JSW Steel saw their shares rise by 2%, 4.6%, and 3% respectively. The import tariff of three years is designed to protect domestic industry by curbing the cheap shipments coming from China. The Nifty and Sensex have gained about 10% - and 8.5% - so far in 2025. They are on track to achieve their 10th'straight' year of gains. Supportive?policies, and early signs that earnings were recovering, helped the markets recover from a dip caused by trade concerns and earnings moderating. After 14 months, the benchmarks reached record highs again in November. The two companies did consolidate in December and lost about 1% each due to persistent foreign sales. Foreign investors have sold shares worth $2.1billion in the last month. Recordings Shares worth $18.5 billion sold by 2025. VK Vijayakumar is the chief investment strategist of Geojit Investments. He said that the markets were impacted by the continued foreign selling and the lack of positive news regarding the India-U.S. Trade Front. He added that the coming days would be critical for determining near-term market trajectory. This will include auto sales for December, results for quarterly periods, and the union budget. Among the individual stocks, RITES Engineering and Consulting jumped 6.5% following a $3.6 million order. Dynacons Systems, a provider of IT services and system integration, surged by 12.5% following the award of a Reserve Bank of India software project worth 2,49 billion rupees. (Reporting and editing by Vivek M and Bharathrajeswaran, Harikrishnan Nair, and Janane Venkatraman).
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Silver heads have the largest gain in annual gains, and gold is set to be the best year for nearly half a centenary
Gold was stable on Wednesday, but it remained on track for its biggest annual gain in more than four decades. Other 'precious metals' fell sharply, as investors took profits following a record-breaking rally. As of 0404 GMT, spot gold was unchanged at $4345.75 an ounce after reaching a record-high of $4,549.71 last Friday. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery fell 0.5% to $4.365.0/oz. Bullion prices have risen 66% since 2025. This is the largest annual increase since 1979, when geopolitical forces, such as the Iranian Revolution, pushed up prices. The gold rally is being driven by interest rates cuts and bets on further easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve. It has also been driven by geopolitical conflict, central bank demand, and rising exchange-traded fund holdings. Analysts said the recent drops in precious metals are linked to technical factors and thin trading. Ilya Spirak, global macro head at Tastylive said: "CME announced a rise in the margins for metals futures, and that was an extremely painful adjustment (for precious metals on Sunday)." The U.S. Dollar rose to its highest level in more than a week, making bullion priced in greenbacks more expensive for holders of other currencies. The minutes of the Fed's meeting in December showed that policymakers only agreed to lower interest rates after a nuanced discussion, but traders are expecting two more cuts next year. Gold is often supported by low interest rates because it does not yield. "Maybe by the end of first quarter of 2026, we will see gold testing $5,000. Spivak stated that it appears the catalysts which have been driving gold prices over the last year are now self-sustaining. Spot silver fell 4.5% on Wednesday to $73.06 an ounce after reaching a record high of $83.62 per ounce the day before. Silver is on track to have its best ever year, with a gain of over 150% compared to gold. Metals have reached multiple milestones in 2025. This is due to its status as a vital U.S. Mineral, the supply constraints, the low inventories, and the increasing industrial and investment demand. Spot platinum fell 6.1%, to $2,065.80 an ounce, after hitting a record high of $2478.50 per ounce on Monday. The price is up more than 120% this year, the highest gain in its history. Palladium dropped 7.1%, to $1,496.75 an ounce. It is set to end the year with a 65% gain, its best result in 15 years. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Alan Barona and Sonia Cheema)
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Trump vetoes first measures in his second term, including a Florida tribal measure and a Colorado water project
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has vetoed an important drinking water project in Colorado. This prompted immediate condemnation by Colorado Republican 'lawmaker'?Lauren Boebert. Boebert is a former MAGA ally and recently challenged Trump on his handling of the Jeffrey Epstein documents. Late on Tuesday, the White House announced Trump vetoed the Finish the Arkansas Valley Conduit Act (AVC), which had been unanimously approved by the House of Representatives as well as the Senate. A second measure, affecting a Florida-based project, was also rescinded. These were Trump's first two vetoes during his second term. The Colorado project was vetoed after Trump's promise to retaliate for the state's refusal to release his ally Tina Peters, despite Trump's attempt to pardoned her earlier in the?month, and Boebert’s action to force government files on the late sexual offender Epstein to be released. Peters, former Colorado county clerk is currently serving a 9-year sentence in prison after being convicted of state charges for allegedly tampering illegally with voting machines during the 2020 presidential elections. Trump's pardon only covers federal charges, and the state has refused to release Peters. Boebert condemned Trump's veto in a statement made on X. She said that the bill was "completely noncontroversial and bipartisan." Boebert added that she hoped "this veto had nothing to do" with political retaliation because of her calling out corruption. The bill was intended to fund a long-term project to provide safe drinking water in 39 communities on Colorado's Eastern Plains where groundwater levels are high and wells can sometimes release?radioactivity in the water supply. In his letter sent to Congress, Trump stated that he had vetoed this measure in order to "prevent American taxpayers from financing expensive and unreliable policy." It wasn't immediately clear whether the Republican leaders in Congress would allow for a vote overturning Trump's veto. Boebert, Marjorie Taylor Greene and other Republican legislators played a major role in obtaining the Justice Department's files about Epstein. Trump had opposed the release of these files for several months before he finally relented. White House: Trump also vetoed the measure that would have spent $14 million to protect an area called Osceola Camp in the Everglades National Park, which is inhabited members of the Miccosukee Tribe of Native Americans. This tribe has been fighting Trump's "Alligator alcatraz" makeshift detention center for immigrants. The detention center has been shut down by a federal judge. Trump claimed that the tribe had never been authorized to live in the Osceola Camp region, and his administration wouldn't support special interest projects, particularly those that were "unaligned with his immigration policy". Reporting by Andrea Shalal, Kanishka Singh and Caitlin Feast; editing by Caitlin Feast and Lincoln Feast.
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Iron ore prices fall as demand falls amid positive signs
Dalian iron-ore futures fell on Wednesday for the second consecutive session due to a weakening of steel demand. However, better than expected factory data from China's top consumer helped limit losses. As of 0247 GMT the?most-traded iron ore contract for May on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange?traded at?0.94% less than its previous price, which was 786.5 Yuan ($112.55) per metric ton. However, it has gained 9.71% in this year. The benchmark iron ore for February on the Singapore Exchange, however, traded at 0.07% more, $105.75 per ton. This represents a 10.12% gain so far in this year. Everbright Securities in China said that domestic steel demand has declined rapidly from month to month. It expects the trend to continue. The broker said that "the rapid decline in domestic steel demand will dominate prices on the medium-term". China Iron & Steel Association has echoed this sentiment, stating that cold weather in northern China will cause construction to stop. They also said there are signs of a weakening downstream industry. The rise in inventories also impacted prices. Mysteel data showed that the total stocks of imported iron ore fines for blast furnace steel production in China increased by 554,700 tonnes, or 4.6% from December 24. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which measures the purchasing power of Chinese businesses, showed unexpected growth in China during December, ending eight months of decline. The National Bureau of Statistics survey on Wednesday showed that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), which measures the level of buying by manufacturers, rose from 49.2 to 50.1 points in December, a significant increase from the previous month. This is above the 50 point mark separating expansion from contraction. In a poll, it beat the analysts' prediction of?49.2. It is a positive sign for China's manufacturing industry, as it is the largest steel consumer in the world. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, were mixed on the DCE. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. Rebar fell by 0.54%; hot-rolled coils dropped by 0.52%; wire rods lost 0.56%, and stainless steel firmed up 0.23%.
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Indian Oil purchases first Colombian oil as part of Ecopetrol contract: sources
Indian Oil Corp bought its first Colombian crude oil as part of an 'optional supply agreement' with state oil company Ecopetrol. This was done to diversify away from Russian oil. Indian refiners have been searching for crude oil as the tighter sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russian oil producers and vessels and those of the European Union are causing a disruption in Russian imports. India's Russian oil imports will plunge to a 3-year low of 1.2 million barrels per day in December. This is down from 1.84million bpd during November, according to Kpler, a ship tracking company. Sources said that IOC purchased 2,000,000 barrels of Colombian Castilla oil for delivery by the end of February. They said that the refiner has an option contract to purchase 12 million barrels of oil, which is equivalent to six very large crude carriers. Each VLCC is capable of carrying 2 million barrels. The contract was signed late in 2021 and has been renewed every year since. IOC and Ecopetrol have not responded to requests for comment. IOC buys most of its oil from Russia and the Middle East, but rarely purchases South American grades, despite having purchase contracts with Mexico Brazil and Colombia. Sources said that the terms of the agreement, including pricing, must be acceptable to both parties. South American crude is rarely competitive with Middle Eastern and Russian grades.
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Sources say that China has begun issuing the second batch of crude import quotas for 2026 to refiners
Two people with a direct understanding of the matter said that at least one independent Chinese refiner received its second round of government quotas 2026 for 'crude oil imports.' More refiners are expected to receive their allocations in the near future. One source said that the independent refiner in eastern China had received 11 million metric tonnes, or 220,000 barrels a day, from the first two quota batches combined. According to the source, the newest allocation, in combination with a small batch released at the end of November, represents about 70% of the refiner’s total quota next year. Sources declined to identify themselves or the company as the information wasn't public. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce which issues crude oil import quotas did not reply to a fax asking for comment. Two sources familiar with the situation say that independent?refiners in the eastern refinery hub of Shandong Province, also called teapots or teapotters, expect to receive their quotas on Wednesday, or in the next few days. They added that the first two batches combined of quota for each teapot should account for 70% or their total yearly. The first two batches of 2025 will?account for the full year allocation for each refiner. Beijing did not explain why it?reduced its issued volume. China regulates its oil imports through a quota-based system. The total allocation for 2026 has been set at 257 millions tons, the same as a year ago. Beijing released a quota of 8 million tons in late November as the first batch of 2026. This quota will be used to cover cargoes that arrive by the end this year. Reporting by Florence Tan in Singapore, Sam Li in Beijing, and Siyi Liu in Beijing. Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus.
Trump issues his first vetoes of the second term for Colorado water project, and Florida tribal measure
Lauren Boebert of Colorado Republican Lawmaker, a former MAGA ally, who recently challenged Trump on the Jeffrey Epstein Files, immediately condemned Donald Trump's veto.
Late on Tuesday, the White House announced Trump vetoed the Finish the Arkansas Valley Conduit Act (AVC), which had been unanimously approved by the House of Representatives as well as the Senate. A second measure, affecting a Florida-based project, was also rescinded. These were Trump's first two vetoes during his second term. The Colorado project was vetoed after Trump's promise to retaliate for the state's refusal to release his ally Tina Peters, despite the fact that he had tried to pardon her earlier in the month. Boebert also took action to force the government to release the files of the late sexual offender, Epstein.
Peters, former Colorado county clerk is currently serving a 9-year sentence in prison after being convicted of state charges for illegally tampering voting machines during the 2020 presidential election. Trump's pardon only covers federal charges, and the state refuses to release Peters. Boebert condemned Trump's veto in a X statement. She called the bill "completely noncontroversial and bipartisan." Boebert added that she hoped "this veto had nothing to do" with political retaliation because of her calling out corruption.
The bill funded a long-term project to provide safe drinking water in 39 communities on Colorado's Eastern Plains where groundwater levels are high and wells can release radioactivity.
In a letter to Congress, Trump stated that he had vetoed this measure in order to "prevent American taxpayers from funding costly and unreliable policy."
It wasn't immediately clear whether the Republican leaders would allow a vote overriding Trump's veto. Boebert, Marjorie Taylor Greene and four other Republican legislators?played an important role in forcing the disclosure of Justice Department documents on Epstein. Trump fought against the release of these files for several months before he finally relented.
White House: Trump also vetoed the measure that would have spent $14 million on?protecting an area called Osceola Camp in the Everglades National Park, which is inhabited members of the Miccosukee Tribe of Native Americans. This tribe has fought Trump's "Alligator alcatraz" makeshift detention center for immigrants. The detention center has been shut down by a federal judge.
Trump claimed that the tribe had never been authorized to live in the Osceola Camp region, and that his administration would not fund projects for special interest groups, particularly those "unaligned with" his immigration policy. Reporting by Andrea Shalal, Kanishka Singh and Caitlin Feast; editing by Caitlin Feast and Lincoln Feast.
(source: Reuters)