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How Trump's ceasefires have failed to end Middle East violence
Residents of Gaza and south Lebanon, as well as northern Israel and Kuwait, were all targeted this week, despite a ceasefire allegedly in place in their respective regions, arranged by the United States. Israeli forces are still active in Gaza and Lebanon. Hezbollah's rockets struck northern Israel and Iranian attacks targeted Kuwait's airport. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, commented on Wednesday about the continued violence in the Middle East. He said that ceasefires involved "shooting?in a moderate manner", rather than an end to all fighting. Three truces that his administration has negotiated are meant to stop the "warfare". While the major fighting has decreased, people are still dying and munitions continue to fall. Here's how the ceasefire -- and ongoing combat -- is playing out. WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE CEASEFIRE? On October 10, 2025 the United States brokered an agreement between Israel and Hamas that ended major warfare. The ceasefire agreement included a halt in all fighting, Hamas freeing all of its remaining hostages, Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners, an Israeli withdrawal phased, increased aid, and the opening a border crossing to Egypt. Trump's plan for a ceasefire included agreements on Hamas disarmament, a new Gaza Government without the group’s involvement, reconstruction in Gaza, and a complete Israeli withdrawal. Despite the fact that all hostages have been released, aid to Gaza hasn't increased significantly. Hamas is not willing to disarm. Israel has increased its control over the territory and hasn't begun reconstruction. Israeli airstrikes on Gaza continue, with more than 900 Palestinians killed since the ceasefire, including nine Thursday. Four Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza by sporadic Palestinian militant attacks. Why is there still violence in Lebanon? A ceasefire was only partially implemented in 2024 after Israel and Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah fought. Both sides accused the other of violating it. In March, after the war against Iran broke out, open warfare resumed. Hezbollah fired into Israel while Israeli forces seized large areas of southern Lebanon. They also pounded other areas with airstrikes. Trump announced on April 16, after rare contact between the Israeli and Lebanese government representatives, a 10-day ceasefire. Israel mostly avoided striking Beirut, although intense fighting continued in southern Lebanon. According to Lebanese officials, who do not differentiate between combatants and civilians, Israeli strikes since April 16 have killed hundreds. The total death toll is now more than 3,500. Israel claims that 26 soldiers and 4 civilians were killed by Hezbollah in attacks since March. Iran wants to include a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon as part of any agreement to end the war it has with the United States, Israel and to reopen Strait of Hormuz. Trump announced on Wednesday that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to implement an entirely new ceasefire contingent upon Hezbollah's departure from southern areas. Israel claims it can continue military operations in spite of the ceasefire, and Hezbollah rejects the truce. Fighting continues. Will the US and Iran cement their ceasefire? On February 28, Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran, aiming to destroy its nuclear and missile programs. Both countries expressed the hope that the theocratic regime would be overthrown. This came after a 12-day conflict last year, in which Israel and the United States struck many Iranian nuclear facilities and military leaders. The?Strait of Hormuz has been closed off despite the deaths of many senior Iranian figures. This has impacted the global economy and slowed down Gulf energy exports. Early April, the United States announced that it had reached a ceasefire agreement with Iran. Talks would follow to discuss a "lasting end to hostilities", a "reopening" of Hormuz and an end to a U.S. port blockade. There has not been a full agreement reached despite the repeated rounds of indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan or Qatar. Negotiations on the nuclear issue would be put off to a later date if a deal is reached. Iran has also attacked Gulf States including Kuwait in the past week. Why haven't the stopfires been effective? The first phase of all three agreements has failed to produce a lasting ceasefire. The combatants in each case have refused to make the painful concessions necessary to progress beyond the first phase transitional ceasefires. Sometimes, they have turned to military action in order to achieve goals that they had to?set aside when the ceasefires were agreed upon or to test boundaries of the agreements. Urban Coningham is a research fellow at London's Royal United Services Institute. He said that when there's not much movement or a clear political horizon it's difficult to maintain a ceasefire because the parties have no incentive to keep it up if there are no changes. He said that the diminishing influence and assertiveness by regional powers, as well as the United Nations, have made it more difficult to maintain long-term agreements. (Compiled by Angus McDowall, edited by Cynthia Osterman).
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What is the secret to economic success? Stephen Jen: A good baseball team
What do the four most important tech economies in the world - the U.S.A., Taiwan Japan and South Korea have in common? They are baseball fans. It may not be a mere coincidence. This raises questions about the prospects for two other baseball-loving countries: Venezuela and Cuba. In the U.S., baseball was created in the mid-19th century. It is a combination of rounders and cricket. Baseball is popular among those who have had a long-term relationship with America, just as British sports are in Commonwealth countries. Baseball became popular in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea after World War II, when the U.S. maintained a?heavy military presence. Today, these three economies together with the U.S. represent about 90% of the $40 trillion global tech market capital. The U.S. accounts for most of it, but the three other economies still make up almost 13%. This could not be a mere coincidence. Taiwan, South Korea and Japan all benefitted from the focus they placed on education during the post-war period, which helped to create highly numerate population, as well their lack of natural resource, which forced them to develop industries geared towards export. Their close relationship with America has also arguably played a crucial role. It was not just the U.S. Military that had an influence on this part of Asia in the decades after World War Two. American companies also played a role. This became especially noticeable in the technology sector over time. Since years, there have been many interactions between companies in Silicon Valley and entities in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan (both universities and companies). Over 20% of the 10,000,000 tech workers in the U.S., are Asian. Many Asian students also attend school in the U.S. Since the 1970s, research and ideas have been exchanged. China complicates this thesis, as you can imagine. China is a technology giant but it's not a baseball nation. Its rise was due to state-directed policies, its size, and access the U.S. led global economic system. Not because of historical ties with America. This distinction could prove to be the key. Baseball is not the reason for tech success but rather a sign of American influence. This helps to explain why China’s relationship with Silicon Valley differs from that of other Asian tech giants. On Deck? This is an interesting question. What about Venezuela and Cuba, two other baseball loving nations? These two nations are not economic giants. Their affinity for baseball points to their historic ties with the U.S. It is a question of whether or not these old links can be transformed into renewed economic, institution, and strategic alignment. Venezuela became one of the largest oil producers in the world after it was discovered early in the 20th century. The mid-20th century saw U.S. oil companies invest heavily in Venezuelan oil exploration and extraction, which in turn supplied an enormous amount of crude oil to America. In this period, American oil workers also helped popularize the game of baseball in Venezuela. It quickly became a national sport. The relationship between the United States and Venezuela deteriorated sharply after the rise in inequality and the fall of energy prices in the late 1990s helped to pave the path for Hugo Chavez’s socialist movement. Baseball remained, even though most U.S. companies had left. Some may remember that, weeks after the U.S. arrested and captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, in January, Venezuela beat the U.S. baseball team in the World Baseball Classic Final, which was highlighted by U.S. president Donald Trump in a recent press conference. Baseball is not mentioned to suggest that it leads to tech success. Rather, I want to emphasize the long-standing relationship between Venezuela and the U.S. It is not difficult to imagine a similar relationship being rekindled. Before Chavez, Venezuela exported half its oil production to the U.S. A prolonged period of underinvestment has reduced its production to 1.0 million barrels per day. Venezuela's historic ties to the U.S., as well as its vast energy reserves could make it a natural ally again. This is not so unlikely, given the warming relationship between Washington DC and the current Caracas government. Joining the Team Finally, there's Cuba. Cubans and Americans who visited the island in the late 1800s taught them how to play baseball. The sport took off fast, and today more than 400 Cubans play in the U.S. Major Leagues. This affinity is also a reflection of a long-standing relationship between the U.S. and Cuba. Following the Spanish-American War in 1898, Cuba came under U.S. protection until 1902 when it became independent, although the U.S. maintained the right to intervene in Cuban matters until 1934. The proximity of the two countries, as well as their shared history, has helped to strengthen relations between them. Over the years, however, corruption and inequality culminated with Fidel Castro, who overthrew Batista's government in 1959. This aligned Cuba with the USSR in the Cold War. Cuba, unlike Venezuela with its oil wealth, does not have a clear path to progress. The current economic situation of Venezuela is dire. It has high inflation, blackouts, and other shortages. This is partly due to the fact that it no longer receives low-cost energy from Caracas. Cuba's proximity to the U.S., which was a major concern during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, makes it in the best interest of the largest economy in the world to support positive changes. The history of the U.S. suggests that, given today's complex geopolitical background, it is best to focus on countries with the ability to call balls and strikes. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. (Writing and editing by Anna Szymanski, Marguerita Choy and Stephen Jen)
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Siam Cement, Thailand's Siam Cement division, sells Chandra Asri shares for $763 million
Thailand's Siam Cement announced on Friday that its unit sold a nearly 15% stake in Indonesian conglomerate Chandra Asri Pacific at the beginning of June for $24.9 billion ($763.10 millions). According to LSEG, SCG Chemicals is the second largest shareholder of Chandra Asri, behind Indonesian business magnate Prajogo Pangestu's Barito -Pacific. Chandra Asri didn't immediately respond to a comment request. The MSCI removed the Indonesian firm from its domestic global standard index in May, causing it to lose over 80% of their value. Stock market in the country has also suffered, as investors have lost confidence due to fiscal concerns, governance of equity markets, central bank autonomy risks and changing commodity export policies. The benchmark has lost 35% annually in the last year. Siam 'Cement' said that the sale was part of its strategy to reduce debt and reallocate funds to growth projects, such as the Long Son Petrochemicals Ethane Feedstock Enhancement Project in Vietnam. The?company initially acquired a %30 stake in Chandra Asri in late 2011 for 3.76 trillion Rupiah. ($1 = 32.6300 baht) (Reporting by Kumar Tanishk and Sneha Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore)
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Russian businessmen sanctioned by the authorities accuse them of setting a "trap" in economy
Russian financial authorities created a "trap" for the Russian economy with their tight monetary policy, forcing it into stagnation. This was their most public criticism since an interest rate increase in 2024. The economic?growth will slow down to 0.4% in this year, from?4.9% last year, due to high interest rates, an overvalued ruble, and Western sanctions. Government's proposed measures won't provide much of a boost. Since 2022, most of Russia's billionaires supported President Vladimir Putin in his war in Ukraine despite Western sanctions that prevented them from accessing their luxury yachts and properties in Europe and North America. The war is now in its fifth year, with no end in sight. Profits are falling, taxes are rising, access to Western market still denied and the largest nationalization drive since 1990. Roman Trotsenko - a billionaire in the transport, fertilizer, and real estate industries - compared the central bank's policy with a "Volcker Shock," referring the aggressive rate increases of the U.S. Federal Reserve under Chairman Paul Volcker from?1979 to 1982. He told a group of businessmen, government officials and bankers at the largest economic conference of Russia in St Petersburg that "this was a huge experiment and no one else has done it since." The key interest rate in Russia is now 14.5%. This is down from the previous high of 22%. However, it is still considered too high by businesses, as inflation has dropped to 5.6%, from 10%. Trotsenko claimed that economic history books will describe the wartime policy of the rate as "Zabotkin’s trap into which Russia fell mistakenly," referring the First Deputy Chairperson Alexei Zabotkin who is the architect of the current policy. ALREADY A MAGIC Zabotkin applauded Trotsenko’s speech, but told reporters later that the central banks was aware of the Russian business's woes. Dmitry Mazepin of Uralchem fertiliser company, compared the central bank's actions to cool the economy with hostile Western powers. What is the external challenge? They want us to be slowed down, but they also want to defeat us strategically, as President Obama said. What's going on internally? What does the central bank mean when they say that they want to cool the "economy" down? Mazepin spoke. According to Forbes, Russia's richest person, Alexei Mordashov is the owner of Severstal. He said that domestic steel demand had dropped by 30% over the past three years. The company had cut 24% of its investment portfolio and its cash flow was negative. I am certain that everyone in this room has a serious re-examination of their investment program. With such volatility and instability, it is obvious that we will see a further decline in investment and a greater drop in GDP. Russian 'billionaires' usually avoid making public statements about the 'war in Ukraine. Many of them have ceded formal control of their companies and are now fighting in courts for the lifting Western sanctions. German Gref, CEO at Sberbank who wrote Putin's economic program in the early 2000s which led to spectacular rates of growth for several years, said after the panel, that Russia's meagre rate of growth under current conditions is "already an miracle". (Additional reporting and editing by Darya Corsunskaya, Elena Fabrichnaya)
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The ROI-Market Map: the financial week in six charts
Six charts in one week. Market Map will present a summary of the week's financial performance with six charts selected by Open Interest columnists. We will highlight the major trends, but also some surprising and often overlooked movements. We've said a lot in the past week. Now, let's let the numbers do the talking. (1) "DARK" OIL RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy columnist: In recent weeks the trickle of oil tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz accelerated as traders adopted stealth measures to cross. The strait's traffic is still a fraction of what it was before the war, but an examination of oil reserves in the Gulf tells us a different story. SURPRISE MIKE DOLAN is a ROI Finance & Markets columnist. The U.S. Economic Surprise Index, compiled by 'Citi and measuring the extent to the which incoming data beats forecasts, reached its highest level in 2023, as the 'Iran War and Energy Shock unfolded and the AI Investment Boom continued apace. (3) BUYERS STRIKE CLYDE RUSSELL ROI Asia Energy and Commodities analyst: China's seaborne imports of crude?oil dropped to its lowest level in almost a decade, as refiners balked when asked to pay higher prices prompted by the war in Iran and?the resulting effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz. The drop in almost 5 million bpd compared to pre-war levels helps?to cushion?the loss of volume through the strait. There are concerns about how long China is willing to keep its inventories full and not import. (4) TALK ISN'T CHEAP, JAMIE MCGEEVER, Columnist at ROI Markets: If you are looking for evidence that we have entered an AI bubble, then exhibit A is what you need. Marvell Technology shares surged by 32.5% on June 2. What caused this record-breaking rise? The catalyst for this record rise was not a new investment or news of improved sales, nor speculation about a takeover. It was five words from Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang who called Nvidia "the next trillion dollar company." Marvell had a market capitalization of $75 billion three months earlier. Now, it's over $250 billion. It's still unclear if it will reach the $1 trillion mark, but the trend is positive. Will he, or won't he? Andy HOME, ROI Metals columnist: "All eyes are on this chart as the market evaluates the likelihood of U.S. president Donald Trump imposing imported duties on refined copper. The U.S. copper price on the CME has a growing premium to the international price of the London Metal Exchange ahead of the expected decision at the end June. (6) HELPING HAND GAVIN MAGUIRE, ROI Global Energy Transformation Columnist: South American crude oils have been overlooked'so far this season, but have grown 'faster than any other region. They are also playing a'meaningful role to help keep the global energy markets fairly well balanced despite Middle East turmoil. The opinions expressed are solely those of their authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to the Trust Principles and integrity, independence, as well as freedom from bias.
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India's GDP grew 7.8% from January to March on the back of resilient agricultural and construction output
The government announced a 7.8% growth rate in India's economy for the quarter of January-March, despite a weakening demand from abroad due to the conflict in the Middle East. The second print in a 'updated' data series, with a revised baseline year and a wider coverage, exceeded the 7.2% forecast in a survey of economists. The reading for January-March was a slight slowdown compared to the previous three month period. The government raised the growth rate for the three previous months from?7.8% to 8.0%. The data showed that gross value added (GVA), a better measure of economic activity at the base, increased 7.9% in the quarter between January and March. GVA removes volatile components from national accounts, such as indirect taxes or government subsidies. The National Statistics Office in India estimated GDP growth for the year ending March to be 7.7%. This compares with the forecast of 7.6% made by the National Statistics Office in February. V Anantha Nageswaran was the chief economist of the country and had predicted economic growth for the current fiscal year at between 7% and 7.4%. This projection was made before the Middle East conflict started. India is one of the countries that have been hardest hit by the Iran War, which has now lasted for a full month without any immediate prospect of a deal between Washington DC and Tehran. India is the third largest crude importer in the world and is heavily dependent on Middle East supplies. The Indian central bank stated earlier that the Middle 'East war will slow the growth of the Indian economy this fiscal year to 6.6%. It kept its benchmark interest rate at the same level, but signaled a possible shift to a hawkish stance due to the inflation pressures and weakness of the rupee. Financial markets have been impacted by the fact that domestic inflation is expected to increase and that fiscal and current accounts are likely to expand. A disappointing'monsoon with the lowest rainfall for 11 years could harm growth in the future. Construction activity increased by 8.4% in January-March compared to a growth rate of 6.7% in the previous period. The growth in agricultural output, which employs over 40% of the enormous workforce of the country, was 3.6% during the fourth quarter 2025/26, up from a revised 1.7% in the previous quarter.
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US oil exports soar, causing domestic crude stocks to plummet
Cushing, Oklahoma is a prairie town known as the "pipeline crossroads" of the world. Its 400 oil tanks are almost empty. Refiners from around the globe have emptied them to fill a huge shortfall in supplies caused by the Middle East war. Cushing is one of the largest oil storage hubs on earth. Since the start of the war, oil levels in the tanks have 'fallen rapidly.' Iran has effectively stopped tanker traffic on the Strait of Hormuz. In order to supply fuel to the world economy, refiners have snatched up any crude they can find to replace the 20 million barrels of oil a day that flowed from the Strait of Gibraltar before the war. Over a billion barrels have been lost since the war began. Cushing is a major player in the oil market, as it's the main delivery point for West Texas Intermediate Crude. This variety forms the basis of many benchmark contracts. The storage levels at Cushing affect the price of oil futures worth tens or hundreds of millions of dollars traded each day. According to two sources, Phillips 66 Refiner believes that Cushing's oil storage could reach its operational minimum. Phillips 66 and a number of other U.S. refining companies rely on Cushing as a major source of crude oil for their plants located in the Midwest and Gulf Coast export hub. Sources requested anonymity because they were not authorized by the company to discuss internal market forecasts. Phillips 66 refused to comment. U.S. Government data revealed on Wednesday that Cushing inventories had fallen to 22.4?million barils as of May 29. This is a drop of about 4 million barrels compared with February 27, just a day before the U.S. and Israel war against Iran began. According to oil storage data provider AlphaBBL, which uses drones planes and satellites for measuring and estimating oil storage, stocks dropped by 500,000 barrels from May 29 to June 2. Jeremy Irwin is the global crude lead at Energy Aspects. He said that if the level of oil in Cushing drops below 20 million barrels there could be operational issues. Government data shows that this level hasn't been reached since the U.S. lifted oil export controls back in 2015. According to the Energy Information Administration, Cushing's working capacity is 78.4 millions barrels. Irwin continued, "At minimum operational levels, there's not enough oil to transfer and pump out of a tank, and blending is a problem. This could cause a delay or even cut off the flow of oil outbound from Cushing." Some tanks are equipped with outlets that allow oil to be emptied completely. Others do not. This makes it difficult to remove oil from the base. Export Slowdown In recent weeks, other U.S. storage centers have also reported large stockpile drawdowns as the country has ramped up its exports to unprecedented levels. The Middle East Crisis pushed Asian and European refiners to increase their demand for American crude oil. U.S. crude oil inventories are down to 43.4m barrels after six consecutive weeks of drawdowns. They have fallen by 63.9m barrels or 7.5% since the start of the war due to the strong drawdowns in both the commercial stocks and Strategic Petroleum Reserve. ROARING BACK to RELEVANCE In the last two decades, Cushing's influence on oil prices worldwide has decreased due to the rapid growth of production elsewhere in the U.S. Cushing, however, is strategically situated to draw barrels from the top U.S. and Canadian shale-fields, while its tanks are connected to pipelines which supply U.S. refineries in the mid-continent, southern regions, and send oil to Gulf Coast ports for export. Midwest-based refiners in the U.S., who lack access to seaborne imported products, would be hardest hit if Cushing stock levels fall below operational minimum. It also raises concerns about crude quality. The bottom of the storage tanks are often contaminated by water and sediments, which means that the oil cannot meet the quality standards set forth by refiners and exporters. A poor crude quality or problems with procurement could increase prices for refiners, and ultimately consumers. The price of gasoline in the United States is already at its highest level for years. Farmers in the Midwest are concerned about the rising?diesel price. Exxon executives and Chevron executives sounded the alarm last week at a conference on the rapidly declining oil stockpiles in the world, and the potential for sharply higher prices of oil in the coming weeks. Mike Wirth, Chevron's chief executive officer, said that the market is unable to absorb the imbalance it faces today. He said, "I would expect more upward pressure as we move into June and July." (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio in New York, with Shariq Khan reporting from New York)
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Thailand joins UN maritime arbitration against Cambodia and halts all other bilateral talks
Thailand announced on Friday that it would join the U.N. arbitral process selected by Cambodia to settle a 'festering maritime border dispute. After Bangkok unilaterally ended a framework agreement for talks on the disputed maritime belt in 2001, Cambodia has launched this week a mandatory conciliation process pursuant to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Both have claimed over 25 years that they own about 26,000 sq km (10,0 miles) of ocean in the Gulf of Thailand. This area is estimated to contain nearly 12 trillion cubic feet of natural gases and large quantities of oil. The total value of this claim is $300 billion. Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow announced on Friday that Thailand would send two representatives to U.N.-backed talks. However, he expressed disappointment at Cambodia's decision to use the discussions to address questions of resource share. "I said to my Cambodian colleagues: 'Why not give the talks a try? He said in an interview that he would give talks a chance for six months. "If we are unable to make progress, we can decide on the next step. This includes mandatory conciliation but also voluntary conciliation." Sihasak stated that Cambodia announced its decision to use the compulsory conciliation procedure on Tuesday, before notifying Thailand. Since June 2, there has been no formal or informal discussion with the Cambodians. Responding to questions, Cambodian Foreign Ministry Prak Sokhonn stated that two-way efforts for resolving the dispute have been exhausted and Cambodia has made its choice. He said that "Cambodia is hopeful that the Thai government will participate in this process with good faith." THAI PM: NO MORE BILATERAL TALKS with CAMBODIA Anutin Charnvirakul, Thai prime minister, said that despite joining the mediation, Bangkok would not engage in?anyother two-way discussions, including those to resolve land border problems. He added: "We'll use UNCLOS. This means that from now on, there won't be any more talks... or other forms cooperating." "We won't discuss the restoration yet." He said that all border gates between Thailand, Cambodia and Laos would remain closed. After two rounds of border clashes that killed 150 people on each side and forced 300,000 to flee, the ties have been strained, but the December ceasefire is still in place. Sihasak, the Thai deputy premier and Cambodian MP, stated that Cambodia's?compulsory reconciliation, where a five-member committee makes non-binding suggestions, would not improve overall relations between the two countries. He said, "We don't like the way they have approached this." Only East Timor (also known as 'Timor Leste') has successfully used the U.N. backed process to?resolve decades-long maritime disputes with Australia in just two years. Sihasak stated that "if we talk bilaterally in a friendly manner, it might take less time to find a solution amicable." "We don't yet know how long it will take." Reporting by Panu Woongcha-um; Additional reporting by Panarat thepgumpanat; Writing by DevjyotGhoshal, Editing by Martin Petty and David Stanway, Clarence Fernandez.
The US terrorist label could increase business costs for Brazil's gangs
As of Friday, the U.S. designated Brazil's largest criminal groups as "Foreign Terrorist Organizations" (FTOs). This is likely to increase risks and costs of doing business in Brazil where gangs are well-established. Comando Vermelho (CV), and Primeiro Comando da Capital, both of the 'biggest Brazilian crime gangs, began in prisons during the 1970s. Since then, they have grown to dominate drug trafficking in South America and their money laundering operations have spread into the far corners of Brazil’s mainstream economy. Investigators have recently discovered that both groups are deeply embedded in sectors like fuel distribution, real-estate and finance. They also commit fraud while laundering billions of dollars from drug profits. The designation of the gangs as terrorists announced last week in Washington and'rejected' by Brazil opens the way for U.S. heavy sanctions, criminal investigations and civil liability for companies that deal with them 'indirectly.
In a recent?note, Pinheiro Neto Advogados, a Brazilian law firm, said that asset freezes, bank restrictions, and increased regulatory scrutiny were also possible.
Rodrigo Caldas de Carvalho Borges is a partner at the law firm CBA Advogados. He said that "the U.S. Policy internationalizes a threat that the Brazilian Financial Sector was already obliged to manage." The most immediate effect will be the intensification of due diligence and increased demands from international partners.
Risks and costs associated with compliance extend well beyond the financial services industry. Few sectors of the Brazilian economic system have been spared the money-laundering schemes of gangs. A major police operation in August revealed that a scheme was being used to move 52 billion reais (about $10,3 billion) from 2020-2024 through PCC-controlled fuel distributors and gas stations.
A second phase of investigations, conducted last week, found that fintechs and funds located along the Avenida Faria Lima in Sao Paulo (the heart of Brazilian finance) were involved in the laundering of $5 billion over a period of four years.
In recent years, the lower barriers to entry for Brazil's fintech companies and a looser regulatory oversight have made them an attractive?channel for laundering drug money. This could mean that larger lenders who have stricter controls on?governance can avoid the worst. Washington closed down only?two smaller commercial bank and a brokerage in Mexico after U.S. terrorist designations were made for drug traffickers.
Fitch Ratings said that the small market share of the institutions affected, as well as the swift regulatory response, had helped to limit the risk for a wider market disruption. Reporting by Luciana Magnhaes and Ricardo Brito, Editing by Brad Haynes & Stephen Coates
(source: Reuters)