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Russell: Imports of crude oil and fuel from Asia are recovering, but still below pre-Iran War levels.
Asia's crude imports rose to their highest level since the start of the Iran war in July, but they were still 15% lower than pre-conflict. According to Kpler, the commodity analysts who compiled these data, imports from the continent that consumes most energy were?22.82 millions barrels per day. The average bpd for the three months prior to the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran in February 28 was 26.89 millions bpd. Kpler data shows that imports of refined fuels showed a slight recovery in July. Arrivals of light and medium distillates were 5.76 million barrels per day, which is 18.5% less than the average 7.07 million barrels per day in the three-month period ending in February. The July crude imports are up significantly from the April levels. This is because the Strait of Hormuz was closed in April. It was this narrow waterway that carried about 20% of all oil and petroleum products before the war. Kpler data shows that Asia's crude imports in April were at 18.77 million bpd, the lowest level since November 2015. In June, imports of light distillates and middle distillates were at their lowest ever levels, with arrivals of just 5,21 million bpd. The market must decide whether the increase in crude and product imports during July is an indication that flows are beginning to normalise or if it is a temporary blip, and Asian markets continue to be stressed. It is a problem that a part of the increase in imports was due to a brief ceasefire in mid-June, which allowed tankers stranded in the Strait of Hormuz by the "effective closure" to leave the waterway. The strait was the main route for Asia to import light and middle distillates. In July, the number of bpds increased from the low of 144,000 in May but remained below the 1.51m bpds in the last three months. The average crude oil arrivals through the Strait of Malacca were 4,05 million barrels per day (bpd) in July. This is up from 1,59 million barrels per day in April, but 70% less than the average 13.60 million barrels per day in the three-month period prior to the beginning of the war. HORMUZ FLOWS Imports could drop after August as some of the crude oil and products that left the Strait of Hormuz in the three-week ceasefire agreement between the United States, Iran and other countries are likely to be delivered. After August, it is likely that Asia will import goods at levels?well below those before the beginning of the conflict. The Asian countries must continue to draw down their inventories, and hope that China - the world's largest crude importer - continues to drastically reduce its purchases. According to Kpler's data, China's crude oil imports by sea were 6.94 million barrels per day (bpd) in July. This is up from a decade-low 5.99 million bpd recorded in June, but 39% lower than the average of 11.43 millions bpd for the three months ending in February. China's reduction in seaborne crude oil imports of over 4 million bpd has helped to offset losses caused by the Iran War. But how long will this continue? China's crude stocks are estimated to be at least 1.2 million barrels. It is possible to limit imports for several months. However, it would be logical to assume Beijing will not be eager to reduce inventories significantly. China, like a majority on the crude market, could anticipate that U.S. president Donald Trump would be forced to accept a deal that reopens strait of Hormuz?on Tehran’s terms. The flow of crude oil and refined products to Asia suggests that the window for a deal before economic hardships are felt is closing. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
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Europe's wildfires season exposes the gap in climate insurance
The domestic insurers will likely absorb the majority of losses from Europe's most devastating wildfire season. But the fires also raise a larger question: Who will pay when climate-driven disasters continue to increase in frequency and destruction? About 220,000 people have been evacuated from France due to unprecedented wildfires that are raging across the nation. The fires that have raged in Spain and Greece are also fueling concerns about insurance costs and the widening gap between protection and climate-related risks. According to Morningstar DBRS, France's total loss could be between EUR10 billion and EUR15 billion (between $11.5 billion and $17.3 billion), while insured losses are likely to reach several billion euros. Analysts say that while the fires are manageable, they could be a preview of what lies ahead in the event that blazes threaten more densely populated regions. Marcos Alvarez is the managing director of Morningstar DBRS. He said: "This could be a real danger to the industry if a wildfire gets out of hand and reaches a city as large as Bordeaux." "This is a different scale of loss." The French fires, while far below the $40 billion insured losses caused by California's Palisades fire in 2025 could still be the most expensive wildfire in the history of the United States. Insurance companies expect to receive claims for damage to homes, businesses and supply chains, and even utility interruptions. Private insurers will be expected to pay the majority of the bill for recovery. Wildfires are excluded from the state-backed compensation scheme for natural disasters in France, unlike floods and droughts. Fitch Ratings stated in a recent research note that the impact of fires on 2026 earnings for insurers should be limited as long as they do not spread into major residential, commercial, or industrial areas. The Insurer reported last week that France's insurance companies had agreed to emergency measures, allowing policyholders who were evacuated due to wildfires in Bordeaux to stay at hotels for up to three weeks on their insurer's expenses. These measures helped Nicolas Mulac, an pharmacist from Marcheprime, near Bordeaux, flee his home with his partner as a fire approached on 24 July. Mulac, whose house was not damaged, filed a claim for reimbursement of food and accommodation costs. He described the process as being "very straight-forward". CLIMATE PROTECTION GAP The fires have brought to light Europe's "protection gaps" - that is, the difference between the total loss from a disaster and the amount of insurance coverage. Spain's wildfires in 2025 caused damage of close to EUR5billion, but only "well below" EUR1billion was insured. Tyson Vickery is the global placement leader for insurance broker Marsh, in Zurich. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Union Insurance Regulator have warned that less than a quarter of losses from climate-related disasters between 1980-2024 are insured. In Europe, wildfire insurance is less developed than it is in the United States. Ana Matarranz is the CEO of Gallagher Spain, an insurance broker. She said, "Spain experienced wildfires in the past, and insurance companies have considerable experience responding to such events." Climate-related risks are increasing in frequency and severity. Climate experts and analysts have said that the lack of historical wildfire data in Europe, on which insurers depend to model and price risks, could complicate underwriting decisions. Rodolphe Man, the head of France for insurance broker Miller told The Insurer that household premiums will likely rise in high-risk areas in January when policies are up for renewal. In France, property insurance is common because mortgage lenders typically require homeowners to have coverage, and tenants to purchase home insurance. Munich Re data show that Europe was responsible for 5% of the EUR173 Billion in global wildfire losses between 2016 and 2025. A report from AXA’s climate unit in July found that by 2050, the areas surrounding French cities may see an average of 70% more days with high fire risk per year. Sarah Goddard said that the growing catastrophe risks made it more important to close Europe's gap in protection, but that efforts at EU level were still at a "exploratory stage". Wynne Laurence, a partner with the London-based law firm Clyde & Co, said that it is too early to determine the final cost, but Europe has been experiencing more conditions similar to those in California and other wildfire-prone areas, such as parts of Australia.
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Yen holds gains, but bond pressure increases
Gregor Stuart Hunter gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, may have hoped for some relief from his to-do lists. The 'Japanese currency' fell for the first time in five days on a tuesday as the dust settled after a rare coordinated intervention by officials from Washington and Tokyo in the foreign exchange market. The yen fell 0.3% against the U.S. Dollar at 157.715 and by the same amount against the euro at 181.45. The yen is still 4% higher against the dollar and euro than it was a week ago, which prompted support from officials. This marks the first U.S. entry into Japan's forex market in 15 years. The auction of 10-year Japanese Government Bonds on Tuesday also attracted weaker demand than previous sales of sovereign debt. This prompted a new bout of anxiety and a rise in yields. Stocks drifted in other markets, as there were few catalysts. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell?0.5% while the Nikkei 225 dropped?0.3%. Investors focused on corporate earnings that were better than expected. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, a small step towards reclaiming records. LSEG data shows that 84% of S&P companies have beaten their earnings expectations. Brent crude rose 1.4% to $84.93 per barrel during the Asian session after oil prices plummeted on Monday. This was due to traders examining Donald Trump's promise to refrain from attacking Iran in order to aid peace talks, which Tehran claims are not happening. The Strait of Hormuz, and the?Bab el-Mandeb are not seeing much traffic. Early European trades saw pan-regional futures up 0.3%, German DAX up 0.2%, both on course to hit'record highs.' Meanwhile, FTSE futures grew 0.3%. Three sources said that after security breaches caused by AI agents who have gone rogue developers Meta, Anthropic and OpenAI, as well as Google, were invited to the White House on Tuesday to discuss voluntary government safety testing of their most advanced models. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Tuesday. Earnings of SpaceX, AMD Caterpillar, McDonald's, Pfizer BP Lufthansa Economic Events France: Budget balance in June Debt auctions: Germany: 2-year government debt UK: 6-year Government Debt (Reporting and Editing by Jamie Freed; Gregor Stuart Hunter)
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South Korean stocks continue to lose, and the market is betting on another rate increase
South Korean shares fell marginally Tuesday, extending losses into a 2nd session amid persistent concerns over the durability of the 'AI trade' and the possibility of a 2nd consecutive rate hike in this month. As of 0354 GMT, the benchmark KOSPI Index was trading 1.1% lower. The index jumped 2.1% at the start of trading, but then reversed direction within minutes and fell as much as 3%. Samsung Electronics, a memory chip maker, fell 2.30% while rival SK Hynix dropped 2%. These two'stocks' account for over half of the KOSPI index and are the main drivers of the recent sharp volatility on the Korean market. The data released earlier that day showed cheaper crude oil had helped lower inflation to 2.8%, which was the lowest level for three months. The figure is still above the central bank's 2% medium-term goal, so the odds of a rate hike in August are still very much on the table. Markets have priced in a 70 percent chance of an increase later this month. The Bank of Korea stated that it would monitor closely the price situation, since core inflation is expected to remain high because of the spillover effect of high oil prices, and the growing demand in Korea, spurred on by record profits made by the chip industry. Kim Jin-wook is an economist with Citi Korea. He said that the core CPI inflation rate will likely stay around 2.8%-3.0% for a long time due to?the time lag between core CPI goods and strong demand side inflationary pressure. "We maintain our view that a 25 basis point?hike will be made at the MPB (monetary board) meeting on August 27." In July, the Bank of Korea raised its benchmark interest rate to 2.75 percent for the first time in three and a half years. Koo Yun Cheol, the Finance Minister, said in a cabinet session that he will work to reduce volatility?in stock markets and implement measures recently announced to curb the 'use of single-stock ETFs. On the KOSPI, Hyundai Motor, and its sister company Kia Corp, were both down by 2.29% and 0.69% respectively. POSCO Holdings, a steelmaker, rose by 1.48%. Samsung BioLogics, a drugmaker grew by 2.67%. The foreigners sold shares worth?50.0 Billion won ($34.98 Million) at a net profit. As of 0354 GMT the won had been quoted as 1,428.1 per US dollar on the offshore settlement platform. This was a marginal increase from its previous closing price of 1,429.5.
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Oil prices remain stable as inventories at the LME and Shanghai fall
The copper price rose on Tuesday due to falling inventories. Oil prices remained stable despite conflicting statements from the U.S. The benchmark three-month contract for copper on the London Metal Exchange rose?0.60% to $13,953 per metric ton by?0331 GMT. Meanwhile, the most traded copper contract on Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.91% to $15,792.90 per ton. Copper stocks at LME registered warehouses As of Friday, inventories had fallen to 244,025 tonnes from around 400,000 in April. The SHFE tracks inventories The number of tons has dropped from 430,000 to 69,300. The decreases have resulted in a tightening of the supply available outside of the United States. COMEX inventories rose to 717 314 short tons in August, continuing a steady increase from around 340,000 short tonnes late last year. In a recent note, Chinese broker Jinrui Futures stated that weekly copper imports into the U.S. were at an all-time high. The broker said that downstream consumption is also slipping in 'China due to higher prices. The oil prices stabilized following a steep drop in the previous session. This was despite President Donald Trump's claim that talks with Iran are underway. Brent crude futures increased by more than 1% Tuesday. This is after the crude oil price dropped 7% to a 3-week low on Monday. Trump stated on Monday that negotiations are taking place, and called them Iran's "last opportunity" to reach a deal. Iran's Foreign Ministry denied that meetings or talks were taking place. Copper is vulnerable to transport and energy costs due to the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Nickel recovered elsewhere after leading Monday's losses. The benchmark nickel contract traded on the 'LME rose by 1.61% while the most active nickel contract traded on the Shanghai Exchange climbed by 1.55%. The market is waiting on the Indonesian government for a more clear direction in?issuing new nickel mining quotas. Aluminium rose by 0.68% on the?LME, while zinc gained?0.37% and lead grew by 0.83%. Tin also increased 0.62%. On the SHFE, other metals rose by 1%: aluminium, zinc, lead, and tin.
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Gold gains ground despite turmoil in the Middle East and US job data
The price of gold climbed a little on Tuesday, as investors weighed the mixed signals from potential 'U.S.Iran' talks and awaited this week's U.S. Labor Market Reports for clues about Federal Reserve interest rate trajectory. Spot gold increased 0.2% at $4,059.81 an ounce as of 0257 GMT. Investors are awaiting reports on the U.S. labor market. These include job opening data in the afternoon, the ADP Employment Report on Wednesday, and the nonfarm payrolls numbers on Friday. "Gold is in a consolidation phase." Ajay Kedia of Mumbai-based Kedia Commodities said that if we see a weakening in the U.S. Dollar, this could lead to gains in gold. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that 'talks with Iran are in progress. He warned that it was Tehran's "last chance" to sign a deal and end the war which has been going on for five months. Iran denied any planned or ongoing negotiations. The conflict has pushed up energy prices and instilled inflation fears. This could lead central banks to increase interest rates to control price pressures. Gold is not a good investment, even though it has historically been used to hedge against inflation. The current market price is a 65% probability of an increase in rates in September, after the Fed, divided in its policy decisions at its most recent meeting?maintained status quo. Kedia stated that if bets on a September rate hike ease, it will support the gold price. John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said that he was optimistic about inflation pressures easing gradually. However, if this doesn't happen then the U.S. Central Bank will respond by raising rates. Citi stated in a report that they expect gold prices to stagnate, or even decline, over the next few months, before rising to $4,500 by the end of the fourth quarter, and $5,000 in the first half next year. Silver spot rose 1%, to $58.74 an ounce. Platinum gained 1.2%, to $1.646.59, and palladium climbed 1.2%, to $1.279.55. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu in Bengaluru. Ashitha Shivaprasad is based in Bengaluru.
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After a selloff, oil prices rise as the talks to end the US-Iran War remain in doubt
After plunging the previous session on 'concerns that Middle Eastern supply is still at risk,' oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday. A diplomatic solution to the U.S. - Iran war, which?has disrupted shipments,? seems unlikely. Brent futures for the front-month rose $0.62 or 0.7% to $84.39 per barrel at 0055 GMT, after falling 7% to a 3-week low in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), which had fallen over 5% the previous session, was $0.61 or 0.7% higher. Prices fell after U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Sunday that he would?hold off on new attack on Iran pending ongoing negotiations to end their war and settle the claims over control of?the Strait?of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz connects Gulf oil producers with global markets. Before the conflict, energy exports equivalent to 20% of daily consumption were transported through this waterway. On Monday, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei denied Trump’s claim. He said that no negotiations were underway with the U.S. and no meetings had been scheduled. The move lower is fragile, said Tim Waterer of KCM Trade. "Oil could rebound higher if the Strait of Hormuz comes under fire again or if missiles are fired once more." The dispute over the Strait of Hormuz is still a major point of contention. Washington claims that the June memorandum required Iran to unlock the waterway. Tehran, however, argues that the document explicitly reserved its authority. Analysts from?Barclays reported that in the week ending July 31, crude oil and refined products net exports across the Strait averaged at 4.2 million barrels a day, up from 3.2 million bpd during the previous week. Shipping data revealed on Monday that six Saudi-flagged Supertankers recently changed their course and headed to'southern Africa. Two tankers 'laden with Saudi Oil? crossed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The data also showed that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman, slowed down after reports of vessel attacks. Hormuz remains dangerous for vessels. The United Kingdom Maritime Trading Operations (UKMTO)?on Wednesday said that they received a report about an incident which occurred 20 nautical miles north of Al Khasab in Oman, after a cargo ship broadcast on VHF channel 16 that it was hit by a?unknown projectile. While the fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis did not stop energy flow, it forced longer journey times, higher insurance rates, and sometimes, diversions. Waterer stated that the Strait of Hormuz is a double-chokepoint in the market, which prevents oil's geopolitical premium from being fully unwound. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)
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Wildfires near Spokane destroy 700 buildings and force 64,000 people to flee
Officials said that wildfires burning on the outskirts Spokane in Washington for the third day had destroyed at least 700 structures and forced thousands of people to flee. The three fires were deemed the 'top priority' in terms of firefighting across the U.S., which includes the Pacific Northwest region, where hundreds of wildfires are burning, causing air pollution to worsen over a large area. Since Saturday, the Spokane fires, which are located on the northern edge of the city and home to 230,000 people, have burned more than 8,000 hectares (3,200 acres). Video footage of the fire zone shows a long column of smoke, which stretches through the treetops. Aerial tankers dropped scarlet colored fire retardant slurries on the blaze. Smoke billowed in the sky as fires ravaged forest land six miles (10 km?) from Spokane downtown. Other suburban homes were in a smoking ruin among charred wood. Video footage showed fires raging along the wooded ridgelines above nearby dwellings. Benjamin Cossel, spokesperson for the incident control center, said that as of Monday, 64,000 people had been given immediate evacuation orders. This is up from 4,000?a day before. Cossel stated that at least 700 structures, mostly residential, have been destroyed or damaged by fire. Aerial infrared scans revealed that another 400 homes and other buildings may also have suffered damage. Investigations were underway to determine the cause of these fires. Prepare for the worst At a press conference in the afternoon, Governor Bob Ferguson stated that "there are so many Washingtonians" who literally lost their lives within a short time. "In just a few hours, the lives of many Washingtonians were profoundly and dramatically altered." Cossel said that no injuries or deaths have been reported yet, but "there's a good chance" this will change as the flames subside, and search teams reach communities which were previously inaccessible due to fire activity. Unspecified numbers of people are reported missing, as the flames spread from wooded areas to neighborhoods and commercially-developed areas. "It's a wildfire that has turned into an urban conflagration," said the official. Spokane mayor Lisa Brown stated at a news conference that "we are still assessing potential lives lost". The footage from a body-mounted camera showed firefighters dousing the fires that had sprung up in a wooded area. Cossel reported that as of Monday only about 1,100 firefighters had been assigned to fight the Spokane fires. This is a fraction from the 29,200 firefighters nationwide who are primarily assigned to fighting wildfires in Oregon, Washington State and Idaho. On Sunday, the agency reported that there were more than 100 new large wildfires in 15 states. The majority of these fires are located in the Northwest. This is stretching the resources across the entire region. According to the state's Public Lands Commissioner Dave Upthegrove, the Spokane cluster is one of 15 major wildfires that are burning in Washington State alone. More than 250,000 acres have been set ablaze. He told reporters that this is a wildfire season unlike any other in the Pacific Northwest. "EXPLOSIVE" FIRE BEHAVIOR Fires continue to rage in British Columbia north of the U.S./Canadian border. Officials have described the fire behavior as "explosive". Cossel stated that the aerial firefighting assets available in Spokane are currently limited to four fixed-wing aircraft. There are no helicopters capable of dropping water. Cossel stated that fire managers were hoping their crews would be able to make more progress during the narrow window of cooler and less windy weather on Monday and Tuesday. Although fire activity has decreased in some areas compared to?Sunday's, authorities have been reluctant to lift the evacuations of most of this fire zone. Cossel stated that it was "the worst thing to do" to allow people to return home, only to have them evacuated again within 24 to 48-hours. Officials said that as of Monday, firefighters in the Spokane area had not been able to contain any of the three fires. The Interagency Fire Center documented 44,722 fires nationwide in the first half of this year, which is the highest number for the time of year since at least 10 years ago. Nearly 5.2 million acres were consumed, making it the worst period from January to August, 2022. Scientists say that the conditions driving wildfire activity across North America, Europe, and other places in recent years - especially prolonged droughts and extreme heat - are largely caused by climate change. Reporting by Dave Ryder, Spokane Washington; Additional reporting and writing by Steve Gorman, Los Angeles; and Andrew Hay, Taos New Mexico. Editing and proofreading by Deepa Babington, Lincoln Feast.
After a selloff, oil prices rise as the talks to end the US-Iran War remain in doubt
The oil price rebounded 1% from a drop in the previous'session. This was due to concerns that Middle East supplies remained 'at risk, as a diplomatic solution to the U.S. - Iran war which has disrupted shipments seems unlikely.
Brent futures for the front-month rose $1.12 or 1.3% to $84.89 per barrel at 0355 GMT, after falling 7% to a 3-week low in the previous session.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), which had fallen more than 5% the previous day, was now up 77 cents or 1% at $81.11, after having dropped to its lowest level in almost a week.
Prices fell after U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Sunday that he would hold off on any new attacks against Iran until ongoing talks were concluded to end their war and resolve claims regarding control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Before the conflict, this strategic waterway connected Gulf oil producers with global markets. It was responsible for about one fifth of all crude oil and gas shipments.
Esmail Baghaei, the spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministry, rejected Trump's claim on Monday. He said that no meetings or negotiations were planned with the U.S.
The scale of the sale seems to be a bit overdone given that there is still a lot of uncertainty. "We've been here before many times, but things always unravelled," ING analysts wrote in a report.
"And with Iran denial that any talks are taking place and Trump issuing threats if no deal comes about, the background clearly leaves plenty of room for a new escalation."
The Hormuz issue is the main sticking point in negotiations. Washington claims that the June memorandum required Iran to open up the waterway. Tehran, however, says the text preserved Iran's?authority.
Analysts from Barclays say crude oil and refined products net exports through this strait averaged at 4.2 million barrels a day for the week ending July 31 compared to 3.2 million in the previous week.
Shipping data revealed on Monday that six Saudi-flagged Supertankers recently changed their course from the Gulf of Aden to southern Africa. Two tankers?ladened with Saudi oil - crossed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The shipping traffic along the Gulf's main waterways of Bab el-Mandeb, the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Hormuz remained largely the same at the start of this week.
Hormuz remains dangerous for vessels. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Agency?flagged a incident on Tuesday 20 nautical miles (37km) northeast of Oman’s Al Khasab after a cargo ship broadcasted over VHF channel 16, that it was hit by an 'unknown projectile.
Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that the fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis did not stop energy flow, but it has caused longer journey times, higher insurance rates, and sometimes diversions.
The Strait of Hormuz is a double-chokepoint in the market, which prevents the oil price from achieving its full geopolitical premium. (Reporting from Ishaan Yap and Trixie in Singapore, with editing by Christian Schmollinger.)
(source: Reuters)