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Russell: Imports of crude oil and fuel from Asia are recovering, but still below pre-Iran War levels.
Asia's crude imports rose to the highest level since the Iran War began in July, but they were still 15% lower than pre-conflict. According to Kpler commodity analysts, the top energy consuming continent imported 22.82 millions barrels per day during July. The average?26.89 mbpd for the three months before the U.S. and?Israeli attack on Iran was?4 mbpd lower. According to Kpler, imports of refined fuels showed some improvement in July. Arrivals of light and medium distillates were 5.76 million barrels per day, which is 18.5% less than the average of 7.07 million barrels per day in the three-month period ending in February. The July crude imports are up significantly from the April levels. This is because the Strait of Hormuz was closed in April. It was this narrow waterway that carried about 20% of all oil and petroleum products before the war. Kpler data shows that Asia's crude imports in April were the lowest since November 2015. The lowest imports in Kpler history were made in June, when the arrivals of light and medium distillates fell to?only 5.21 million bpd. The market must decide whether the increase in crude and product imports during July is an indication that flows will begin to normalise or if it is only a temporary blip, and Asian markets are still stressed. It is true that a part of the increase in imports was due to the short ceasefire that took place in mid-June, which allowed the tankers to leave the waterway that were stranded because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The strait was the main route for Asia to import light and middle distillates. In July, the number of bpds increased from a low of 144,000 in May, but it is still far below the 1.51m bpds in the last three months. The average crude oil arrivals through the Strait of Malacca were 4,05 million barrels per day (bpd) in July. This is up from 1,59 million barrels per day in April, but 70% less than the 13.60 millions bpd that was the norm in the three-month period prior to the beginning of the war. HORMUZ FLOWS Imports could drop after August, as some of the crude oil and other products that left the Strait of Hormuz in the three-week ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States are likely to be delivered. After August, it is likely that Asia will import goods at levels far below those before the beginning of the conflict. The Asian countries must continue to draw down their inventories, and hope that China will continue its recent trend to drastically reduce its crude oil purchases. According to Kpler's data, China's seaborne crude imports reached 6.94 million barrels per day (bpd) in July. This is up from the decade low of 5.99 million bpd recorded in June, but down 39% when compared to the average of 11.43 millions bpd over the three-month period ending in February. China's reduction in seaborne crude oil imports of over 4 million bpd has offset losses from the Iran War, but it is unclear how long this will continue. China's crude stockpile is estimated to be at least 1.2 million barrels. It can certainly keep imports low for a few months. But it would be logical to assume Beijing will not be eager to reduce inventories significantly. China, like a majority on the crude market, could anticipate that U.S. president Donald Trump would be forced, by economic realities, to accept a deal that reopens strait?on Tehran's conditions. The flow of crude oil and refined products to?Asia suggests that the window before real economic hardships are felt is closing. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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As Iran tensions continue, stocks rise despite higher oil costs
European stocks rose alongside U.S. Futures on Tuesday. However, a'rebound in the oil price underscored market scepticism about the U.S. - Iran war being resolved quickly by diplomacy. The yen has weakened, but still held onto most of its gains following last week's joint intervention by Washington and Tokyo to support the currency. Majed al Ansari, spokesperson for the Qatar Foreign Ministry, said that diplomatic efforts were being made to end the U.S. - Iran war. However an attack near Strait of Hormuz raised doubts about the conflict's conclusion. Brent futures increased 1.5% to $85.05 per barrel, after falling 7% the previous session and reaching a three-week high. STOXX Europe 600.STOXX rose 0.60% with tech stocks up 1.85%. Nasdaq Futures rose 0.77%, and S&P500 futures increased by 0.20%. The Dow Industrials closed at a record high. Nasdaq ?Composite jumped 2.12%. The main MSCI world stock index increased by 0.10%. "We're adding risk to those sectors that should be less affected by higher interest rates." Mohit Kumar, a Jefferies economist, stated that the tech and financial sectors would be his 'favourite' sectors for adding back risk to the portfolio. He added that "the amount of cash available in the system is one factor which continues to support the bullish medium-term view." Last week, the yields on longer-dated U.S. Treasury bonds reached a record high of 19 years after comments?from U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh raised 'concerns that the Fed might not act aggressively in order to curb inflation. The majority of analysts believe Warsh will not raise rates and that the data he receives could be enough to convince him to remain put. Tuesday will bring the first round of U.S. job data. LSEG data, as well as market participants, indicate that 84% of S&P 500 companies have beaten their earnings expectations. Manish Kabra is the lead U.S. equities strategist and multi-asset strategist for Societe Generale. He said that a yield curve inversion was not SG’s scenario. SG believes the S&P Index will reach 8,000. Concerns remain elsewhere in Europe. Some economists warn that the region's economy will face a more difficult outlook due to the drought which is hampering Rhine shipping, and as gas inventories are still under pressure. YEN DROPS AFTER INTERVENTION DRIVEN RALLY The dollar rose 0.4% to 157.80 Japanese yen after U.S.-Japanese authorities intervened last week in a coordinated effort to support the yen. The Japanese currency is still about 4% stronger than the greenback, compared to levels from a week earlier. This prompted the official support of the U.S. and marked the first U.S. involvement in the Japanese Foreign Exchange Market in 15 years. Some market participants have warned that?Japan’s fiscal expansion and the Bank of Japan’s gradual rate increases could weigh on the Japanese yen. "The catalysts which can amplify unwinding short?yen position (supporting currency) include, potentially, lower oil prices, a tightening of BoJ policy in September and afterwards, and some moderating?in Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s fiscal plans in order to restore debt sustainability," Thierry Wizman said. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures greenbacks against a basket six currencies, was stable, and not far off the lowest levels in the last two months, at 99.97. Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo. Jamie Freed, Mark Potter and Mark Potter edited the report.
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Marathon Petroleum reports highest profit since 2022 due to supply disruptions
Refiner Marathon Petroleum posted its highest quarterly profit for four years on Tuesday. It also surpassed analysts' profit expectations, as prolonged disruptions to crude supply through the Strait of Hormuz increased refining margins. In premarket trading, shares of Marathon rose by around 2.1%. After the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed for several months, the margins on gasoline, jet fuel and diesel increased. The repeated?Iranian strikes on refineries in the Middle East further reduced fuel supplies. Marathon's results...follow those of rivals Valero Energy, HF Sinclair and others who have also reported their highest quarterly profit since 2022. Marathon's quarterly refining margin has doubled from last year to $36.33 a barrel. The company's crude capacity utilization for the second quarter was 94%. This resulted in a total throughput of 2,9 million barrels a day (bpd). The company's?crude capacity utilization was 94%, resulting in a total throughput of 2,9 million barrels per day (bpd) for the second quarter. Capacity Utilization is a measurement of the amount of processing capacity of a refinery that is actually being used. Marathon expects a total refinery throughput of?3 million bpd for the third quarter. The company's Renewable Diesel unit reported an adjusted core profit in the second quarter of $258,000,000, up from a loss of only $19,000,000 a year earlier. This was due to higher margins, increased throughputs, and improved regulatory credit value. The U.S. refiners have been struggling to make a profit for years. However, recently, the profits have increased as government biofuel mandates have boosted demand, and higher diesel prices due to Middle East conflict have improved margins. According to data compiled and analyzed by LSEG, the top U.S. refining company?posted an adjusted profit of 17.73 dollars per share versus analysts' average estimates of 13.73 dollars per share.
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Bharti Airtel in India posts higher profits on upgraded subscribers
Bharti Airtel, India's second largest telecom operator, posted a 37.3% increase in its first-quarter profit on?Tuesday. This was due to?users upgrading their plans and adding new subscribers. The company's consolidated "net profit" rose to 81.67 trillion rupees ($856.28 millions) for the quarter ending June 30 from 59.48 trillion rupees one year earlier. India's telecom companies have relied on customers upgrading to more expensive plans to increase average revenue per user (ARPU), a key telecom measure. There hasn't been any broad-based price increases since July 2024. Airtel, the market leader in 4G and 5G service adoption, and Reliance Jio have revised their select recharge plans. Airtel's ARPU, which is the industry leader in this area, rose by?5.6% to 264 Rupees year-on-year during the first quarter. This was aided?by an increase of 7.5% in its 4G and 5-G users. Since Jio's entry into the Indian telecom sector in 2016, the industry has seen intense competition, with Reliance overtaking its peers to command India's largest users base. Analysts expect another round of tariff hikes?of 12-15% in the next few months. This could give the ARPU a boost. Airtel India's user base grew 12.8% on an annual basis to 492 millions as of June 30, trailing behind Jio with 533.3 million. Airtel's Africa division, which is active in 14 countries within?Sub-Saharan Africa, and represents over a quarter?of the group revenue, saw a 45.4% increase. The company's total revenue grew 18.4%, to 585.39 indian rupees (about $6.14 billion). This was above analysts' expectations of 573.1 billion rupees. Last month, Jio?reported an increase of 6.8% in its quarterly profit. Vodafone Idea, a smaller rival, has not yet posted results. Reporting by Aleef Jhan in Bengaluru, editing by Nivedita Battacharjee.
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Brazil's Mombak delivers to Google and other buyers early in order to boost carbon removal credits
Mombak, a Brazilian startup that specializes in reforestation, announced on Tuesday that it delivered its first Amazon carbon credits two years ahead of schedule. This milestone could help to build confidence in the market which has been plagued with concerns about project quality and late deliveries. The company said that the credits were delivered in 2028 to McKinsey, Google and McLaren Racing. Credits were also given to Bain & Company Climeworks Commons and Union Square Ventures. Mombak restores degraded pastures and farmland in Brazil's Amazon rainforest through the planting of native tree species. This generates credits from the carbon dioxide captured by forests that can be sold to businesses seeking to offset emissions. It said that the startup had planted more than 15 million trees in 12 farms across the Amazon. This first?issuance amounted to more 21,000 metric tonnes of CO2 removed from the atmosphere. "The carbon market unfortunately has?had many challenges with suppliers delivering late and delivering less than what was promised," said Dan?Harburg, Chief Commercial Officer at?Mombak. He added that Mombak also sold credits on the spot-market. The credits are also the first delivered under the Symbiosis Coalition. A group of buyers, including Google and Microsoft, of nature-based credits for carbon removal has committed to purchasing more than 20 millions tons of offsets before 2030. Julia Strong, the executive director of the Coalition, said that this transaction showed carbon financing could be used to scale up climate solutions if buyers and developers adhered to more stringent standards. Strong stated that "this is proof positive that buyers can commit to these projects and they will deliver on their promises." Mombak said it expects to issue an additional 55,000 credit in 2026. In recent years, Brazil's new carbon market attracted investors and lenders as companies sought high-quality projects to remove carbon emissions in order to meet climate goals. For example, tech?giants are seeking ways to reduce the impact of their huge investments in data centers that consume a lot of power for AI. However, some critics say that offsets are a way for polluters to avoid cutting their emissions. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Gabriel Araujo)
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Indian shares drop ahead of RBI's decision; Nifty loses some of its closing auction bounce
Indian shares dropped on Tuesday, ahead of?the Central Bank's Wedensday Policy Decision. The blue-chip Nifty?50 reversed the sharp rise from the previous session as investors adapted to a new closing auction mechanism?for stock with futures and option?contracts. Investors re-aligned their positions ahead of the weekly expiration of derivative contracts for Nifty. The volatility index reached its highest level in one week, at 12.1875. The Nifty dropped 0.64%, to 24,614.90. Meanwhile, the BSE Sensex fell 0.27%, to 78.428.95. The indexes gained 0.7% and 1.6% respectively on Monday. This was an unusual divergence after the launch of the new system. The new closing-auction sessions for F&O shares?has triggered an early adjustment-related volatile, and the impact is more pronounced on the Nifty rather than the Sensex due to their different exposure to the impacted stock," said Aishvarya dadheech, the founder and chief investment office at Fident Asset Management. While it increased caution on the weekly expiry date, these are teething problems as investors adjust?to a new system designed to curb price distortions. Dadheech said that the impact of the new system should diminish over a period of a few weeks. Brent crude rose 2.9% to $86.2 a barrel after falling 7% the previous session on the uncertainty surrounding talks to end the U.S./Iran war. India is concerned about higher oil prices, which could lead to a rise in inflation, a slower economic growth, and a drop in company profits. Reserve Bank of India will likely keep its policy rate at 5.25% as it evaluates the inflationary impact of higher crude oil prices, a'monsoon surplus and the recent measures taken to support the rupee. 15 of 16 major sectors fell. The financial sector and IT fell by 0.5% and 0.8 %, respectively. Small-caps increased by 0.2% while mid-caps fell?0.3%. The state-owned insurer LIC fell 8.7% following the sale by the government of up to a 6.5% stake, at a '10.9% discount on Monday's closing price. Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank dropped by 2.1% each, respectively. Dabur's shares fell by 3.8% following India's food regulator banning it from selling products with unverified or false claims, such as "100% pure," "100% organic," and "100% natural." Bharathrajeswaran, Bengaluru. Subhranshu Sahu and Mrigank Dahniwala edited the story. Nivedita Bhattacharjee, Ronojoy Mazumdar, and Ronojoy Mazumdar reported.
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DuPont increases annual profit forecasts following quarterly beating on price hikes and cost reductions
DuPont, a maker of industrial materials, raised its annual profit estimates?on?Tuesday after exceeding second-quarter expectations. This was due to price increases and the impact?of its capital deployment?measures. The company has also benefited from capital 'deployment measures such as the spin-off and debt reduction of its electronics division, share repurchases and surcharges to offset rising feedstock and energy prices, and at a time where the global chemical industry is also struggling with weak demand for key end markets. The Strait of Hormuz has been a source of tension since late February, causing disruptions in oil and petrochemical supplies around the world. The company raised its core profit forecast for 2026 to between $1.75 billion and $1.77?billion, up from the $1.73 billion and $1.76 billion previously predicted. The company now expects?adjusted earnings per share between $7.17 and $7.32. This is up from its previous forecast of $7.02 - $7.16. CFO Antonella Franen stated that continued strength in healthcare, industrial water? and aerospace end-markets will drive mid-single digit organic growth in the second part of the year. The net sales of its Healthcare and Water Technologies segment increased by nearly 5% to $856 million from a year ago, while the net sales of its Diversified Industrials segment rose by 3.3% to $963 millions. DuPont has lowered its previous forecast range from $7.16 to $7.22 Billion to $7.16 to $7.19 Billion, citing lower currency benefits as a factor. The Wilmington, Delaware based?company reported adjusted profit of 1.88 per?share in the three-month period ended June 30. This was higher than analysts' estimates of $1.76, according to LSEG data.
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Copper reaches two-month high of $14,000 as inventories drop
The price of copper soared to $14,000 on Tuesday. This was a two-month high, driven by the dwindling inventory outside the U.S. Benchmark 'three-month copper' on the London Metal Exchange rose above $14,000 after the release of LME stock data at 8am GMT. It jumped as high as 1.3%, to $14,053 per metric ton. This is its highest level since June 2. As of 09:00 GMT, the metal was trading at $14.024.50 up by 1.1%. The data showed orders to remove another 7,225 tonnes of copper from LME storages The remaining inventory is 94,200 tonnes, barely enough to cover a single day's global consumption. The spread between the three-month cash and the three-month money market has shifted backwards. The steepest increase since January is $105 per ton. This indicates a tightening of the market. The majority of the copper withdrawals or cancelled warrants were from New Orleans in the United States, where metal can be traded on the COMEX for a premium. COMEX Copper inventories are more than twice as large at the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME Total 650 736 metric tonnes. The latest attack on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz highlighted the risks to energy and aluminium flows. The price of lightweight metal increased by 1.2%, reaching $3,259.50 per ton. This is the highest it has been since June 23. Analysts at Sucden Financial said in a report that "Aluminium prices have reclaimed $3,200/t, but we do not expect them to stay there comfortably without another Middle East shock, or a clear supply-risk trigger." Nickel recovered?by 1.4%, to $17.285, after losing ground Monday. Traders are awaiting more clarity on the new nickel mining quotas for?Indonesia. Zinc rose 0.4% to $3655.50, after hitting a four-year-high on Monday. Lead gained 0.9% at $1883, and tin rose by 0.8% at $55,750, also after reaching a two month high. (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahaniwala; additional reporting and editing by Dylan Duan, Lewis Jackson and Ronojoy Mazumdar.)
Sources say that Syria has told the US it is willing and able to reduce its Russian oil imports drastically.
Three sources with knowledge of the discussions said that Damascus had agreed to reduce its imports of Russian crude oil as part of ongoing talks with the United States about lifting the last major designation of sanctions on Syria. This would be a significant shift in the energy policy of 'Syria. It has become heavily dependent on Russian oil, despite its political pivot towards the West.
Experts say that it would be a way for the U.S. exert new pressure on Russia’s economic influence in the country.
According to a Syrian official with direct knowledge of these conversations, an American official, and another source who was briefed about the issue, senior Syrian officials told the U.S. that they were willing to reduce Russian imports of oil as they discussed Washington's removal of Syria from the decades-old list.
Three sources who spoke anonymously because they weren't authorized to brief journalists said that the U.S. didn't explicitly state the reduction in size as a condition for lifting the designation.
The willingness of Syria to reduce its Russian oil imports was not previously reported.
"Replacing Russian crude volumes cannot be done overnight without causing fuel shortages and higher import costs in Syria. Washington's long-term effect on Damascus will depend on whether it combines this pressure with alternative measures, said Navvar Saban, a Syrian expert at the Arab Center for Contemporary Studies.
Saban stated that Washington is "increasingly focusing on the economic network which allows Russia to maintain influence after losing political grounds in Syria."
SOURCE: SYRIA IS READY TO DIVERSIFY OIL SUPPLIES
The information and foreign ministry of Syria, as well as the foreign and energy ministries of Russia, did not immediately respond to our questions.
The U.S. State Department said Washington "encouraged Syria to engage trusted corporations -- especially U.S. companies -- during the recovery and reconstruction of the country" and that it expected Syria to comply with U.S. sanction against Russia.
A U.S. official responded to a question from the White House by saying that there is no connection between Syria's designation and the reduction in Russian oil imports. SST, which has been in place since 1979 is the 'only major sanctions label left on Syria' after U.S. President Donald Trump and the U.S. Congress removed comprehensive sanctions following Bashar al-Assad's ouster.
The U.S. official briefed about the issue and the source said that during discussions on rescinding SST, Washington requested and received an agreement from Syria to reduce Russian oil imports drastically.
According to the Syrian source U.S. officials told their Damascus colleagues that stopping purchases of Russian crude oil would "improve chances of lifting SST quickly and without complications."
Sources said that Syria replied by saying removing the designation will allow Damascus a more diverse energy supply system.
Syria's options for oil supply remain severely restricted despite the lifting of most Western sanctions. Russian oil shipments into Syria increased by 75% this year to 60,000 barrels per day. This is a small share of Russia's global daily oil exports, but it has made Moscow Syria's dominant crude supplier.
"Syria relies on Russian crude oil today out of necessity and not because it prefers it. Syrian officials (to the U.S.), often say: "Lift SST designation, and we will buy oil elsewhere." The source stated that we simply do not?have alternative options right now'.
No one had any information on the timeline or other sources of crude.
An official from the Syrian Ministry of Energy told?that Damascus is already looking for new suppliers, and that a "radical shift" was to be expected. Last month, French oil giant TotalEnergies' and Syrian officials discussed a contract for offshore exploration. Syria also signed a gas production agreement with ConocoPhillips & Novaterra in June.
U.S. U.S.
Syria shares the top spot with Cuba, Iran, and North Korea on Washington's SST list.
Trump notified Congress on July 8 of his intention to remove Syria. This triggered a 45-day period of notification during which he had to certify that Syria did not provide support for acts or international terrorism in the six months prior and that it has given assurances that such acts will not be supported in the future.
Since Assad's ouster, Syria's?Islamist led government has pledged that the country will never again threaten regional and international?security. It has joined the U.S. coalition against the Islamic State, and regularly busted weapons smugglers on its borders with Iraq and Lebanon. The U.S. did not include Russia in its earlier conditions for relief of sanctions, but it has recently signaled that it wants Syria to distance itself from Moscow.
Congress has instructed the Pentagon to evaluate options for reducing Russia’s influence in Syria, and securing their departure from an airbase and seaport in Hmeimim. In July, it was reported that a part of the Russian naval base would be converted into a logistics hub for commercial purposes.
(source: Reuters)