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US oil exports soar, causing domestic crude stocks to plummet

Cushing, Oklahoma is a prairie town known as the "pipeline crossroads" of the world. Its 400 oil tanks are almost empty. Refiners from around the globe have emptied them to fill a huge shortfall in supplies caused by the Middle East war.

Cushing is one of the largest oil storage hubs on earth. Since the start of the war, oil levels in the tanks have 'fallen rapidly.' Iran has effectively stopped tanker traffic on the Strait of Hormuz.

In order to supply fuel to the world economy, refiners have snatched up any crude they can find to replace the 20 million barrels of oil a day that flowed from the Strait of Gibraltar before the war. Over a billion barrels have been lost since the war began.

Cushing is a major player in the oil market, as it's the main delivery point for West Texas Intermediate Crude. This variety forms the basis of many benchmark contracts. The storage levels at Cushing affect the price of oil futures worth tens or hundreds of millions of dollars traded each day.

According to two sources, Phillips 66 Refiner believes that Cushing's oil storage could reach its operational minimum. Phillips 66 and a number of other U.S. refining companies rely on Cushing as a major source of crude oil for their plants located in the Midwest and Gulf Coast export hub.

Sources requested anonymity because they were not authorized by the company to discuss internal market forecasts. Phillips 66 refused to comment.

U.S. Government data revealed on Wednesday that Cushing inventories had fallen to 22.4?million barils as of May 29. This is a drop of about 4 million barrels compared with February 27, just a day before the U.S. and Israel war against Iran began.

According to oil storage data provider AlphaBBL, which uses drones planes and satellites for measuring and estimating oil storage, stocks dropped by 500,000 barrels from May 29 to June 2.

Jeremy Irwin is the global crude lead at Energy Aspects. He said that if the level of oil in Cushing drops below 20 million barrels there could be operational issues. Government data shows that this level hasn't been reached since the U.S. lifted oil export controls back in 2015.

According to the Energy Information Administration, Cushing's working capacity is 78.4 millions barrels.

Irwin continued, "At minimum operational levels, there's not enough oil to transfer and pump out of a tank, and blending is a problem. This could cause a delay or even cut off the flow of oil outbound from Cushing." Some tanks are equipped with outlets that allow oil to be emptied completely. Others do not. This makes it difficult to remove oil from the base.

Export Slowdown

In recent weeks, other U.S. storage centers have also reported large stockpile drawdowns as the country has ramped up its exports to unprecedented levels.

The Middle East Crisis pushed Asian and European refiners to increase their demand for American crude oil.

U.S. crude oil inventories are down to 43.4m barrels after six consecutive weeks of drawdowns. They have fallen by 63.9m barrels or 7.5% since the start of the war due to the strong drawdowns in both the commercial stocks and Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

ROARING BACK to RELEVANCE

In the last two decades, Cushing's influence on oil prices worldwide has decreased due to the rapid growth of production elsewhere in the U.S.

Cushing, however, is strategically situated to draw barrels from the top U.S. and Canadian shale-fields, while its tanks are connected to pipelines which supply U.S. refineries in the mid-continent, southern regions, and send oil to Gulf Coast ports for export.

Midwest-based refiners in the U.S., who lack access to seaborne imported products, would be hardest hit if Cushing stock levels fall below operational minimum. It also raises concerns about crude quality. The bottom of the storage tanks are often contaminated by water and sediments, which means that the oil cannot meet the quality standards set forth by refiners and exporters.

A poor crude quality or problems with procurement could increase prices for refiners, and ultimately consumers. The price of gasoline in the United States is already at its highest level for years. Farmers in the Midwest are concerned about the rising?diesel price.

Exxon executives and Chevron executives sounded the alarm last week at a conference on the rapidly declining oil stockpiles in the world, and the potential for sharply higher prices of oil in the coming weeks.

Mike Wirth, Chevron's chief executive officer, said that the market is unable to absorb the imbalance it faces today.

He said, "I would expect more upward pressure as we move into June and July." (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio in New York, with Shariq Khan reporting from New York)

(source: Reuters)