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Prices of EUROPE GAS have fallen by over 10% following the news that Iran and Israel had reached a ceasefire

Prices of EUROPE GAS have fallen by over 10% following the news that Iran and Israel had reached a ceasefire

The wholesale gas price in the Netherlands and Britain fell by more than 10% Tuesday morning, following the news that Iran had agreed to a ceasefire with Israel. This removed the premium for risk the market had built into the market due to potential disruptions of oil and gas supplies.

The benchmark Dutch front month contract at the TTF Hub fell by 4.86 euro to 36.38 Euros per Megawatt Hour (MWh), which is $12.38/mmBtu by 0939 GMT. It had traded as low 35.45 Euros/MWh earlier, LSEG's data showed.

The British front-month contracts was down 13.72 pennies at 84.85 cents per therm.

The two contracts have now reached their lowest level since June 11. Contracts all along the curve are showing drops of about 12%, erasing any gains made since the first Israeli strike on Iran.

A trader explained that Tuesday's decline was due to the news from Israel that it had agreed to U.S. president Donald Trump's proposal of a ceasefire between Iran and the United States.

In its daily market report, Auxilione noted that "at the open today we saw an incredible sigh relief as more than 10% of the price levels were eroded."

They warned that any breach of the ceasefire by either party would immediately bring back concerns to the market.

Israel claims that Iran has violated the ceasefire, and it will respond. Iran denies the claims.

Gas prices were at an 11-week high before due to fears that hostilities would lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and lock in 20% of global LNG supply.

The oil price also fell sharply on Tuesday.

Arne Lohmann, GRM's chief analyst said that the talk of a Hormuz Strait closing and broader war risks has all but disappeared for the moment.

A trader stated that gas prices could fall even lower, to levels not seen before the war, due to the high LNG supply, and the need to unwind some long positions by market participants.

The Dutch day-ahead contracts plunged further, dropping from 36.25 euros/MWh to 4.92 euros.

The British contract for the day ahead fell by 9.25 pence, to 85.50 pence per therm. The contract for the next day was down 11.60 pence, at 85.00 pence per therm.

The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets was up by 0.90 euros at 74.17 euro per metric ton. Nora Buli, OSLO; Nina Chestney, editing.

(source: Reuters)