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As the Middle East erupts, investors choose oil and safe havens over stocks.

U.S. Investors sought refuge on Friday in safe-haven assets such as the dollar and gold after oil prices soared following Iran's retaliation against Israel's largest-ever military attack against the major producer of crude.

Iran launches airstrikes against Israel

After unprecedented Israeli strikes, some fear a regional conflagration. On Friday, explosions were heard in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv - the two largest cities of Israel. Israel had earlier destroyed Iran's vast underground nuclear facility at Natanz and killed top military leaders.

Investors believe that the markets will likely survive the latest hostilities, unless Iranian oil installations are attacked or if other countries get involved in the conflict. Crude prices soared up to 14% due to fears of possible disruptions in oil shipments. Oil futures closed the day 7% higher.

Jim Baird is the chief investment officer of Plante Moran Financial Advisors, Southfield, Michigan.

Money manager says he expects "a little more flight to quality trade" if stocks continue to fall. This could be beneficial for gold and Treasuries.

How long will it last? How intense will the battle be? Will it attract other parties? "From a large-scale economic perspective, it doesn't seem to make a material difference," he said.

Gold prices in safe-havens rose by more than 1 percent, while Wall Street's major equity indices fell more than 1 percent.

Oil prices were brought into sharp focus by the outbreak of war. Iran is one of the largest crude exporters in the world. It borders the Strait of Hormuz which is a major choke point for crude tankers and through which a fifth of the global crude consumption passes. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz as a retaliation against Western pressure.

Oil prices rose and investors looked for safe havens. U.S. government bonds yields increased on the bets higher energy prices would cause inflation.

Brent crude oil, the benchmark for global crude oil prices, is still well below $80 per barrel, despite the recent spike. Irene Tunkel is the Chief U.S. Equity Strategy at BCA Research. She said that she doesn't see any long-term implications for U.S. markets unless oil prices rise above $100 per barrel. This would affect consumer spending.

She said this was unlikely, unless the oil infrastructure is destroyed. Or "Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz in some way and (the conflict spills) out of Iran. And energy production is shifted to Iraq."

The strategist noted that Friday's S&P 500 decline followed a rally from lows in April.

Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that Iran still had time to stop Israel's attacks by negotiating a deal with its nuclear program.

Investors were concerned about how central banks might handle interest rates in the event that U.S. consumer costs rise as a result of Trump's tariffs.

Jack Janasiewicz is a portfolio manager with Natixis Investment Managers, based in Boston. He said that the possibility of higher inflation due to rising oil prices was "less supportive" of U.S. Government bond prices. He did note that investors usually take geopolitical crisis in stride.

"Historically, with these geopolitical issues, the market has a knee-jerk response but the long-term implications tend to fade. Janasiewicz said that history tells us we should look past some of these things.

OIL PRICE RALLY

Janasiewicz stated that the final gains in oil prices would depend on the length of the war and if U.S. supplies could be increased to cap prices, if there was a disruption in supply.

Janasiewicz stated that "from a U.S. standpoint, it's a little more insulated" because domestic producers can certainly increase production.

On Friday, the dollar index, the safe-haven asset that has been the focus of risk aversion in recent months, was up 0.5%.

Fiona Cincotta, City Index's strategist, said that the dollar was returning to its traditional role as a safe haven.

Investors warned that the market may not have been cautious enough despite Wall Street's selling off.

James Athey, the manager of Marlborough Fixed Income Fund, said that investors could be tempted to return to riskier assets if tensions don't rise quickly.

He said that "in general, the markets tend to pass over these types of events fairly quickly. But of course, therein lies a risk of complacency."

He said, "The situation is really tense and fraught. Risk assets are still being priced to perfection."

(source: Reuters)