Latest News
-
Copper and base metals benefit from the softer dollar
The dollar fell on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain a stable interest rate. The benchmark three-month copper price on the?London Metal Exchange rose 0.75% to $13,676 per metric tonne by 0730 GMT. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell 0.1% to 104 690 yuan (15,492.25 dollars) per ton. Dollar falls to one-week lows as markets assess possible Fed interest rate paths following Wednesday's policymakers' vote to maintain rates. A cheaper ?dollar can boost greenback-denominated commodities by making them more affordable for buyers using other currencies and ?higher interest rates can weigh on growth-dependent commodities by dampening economic activity. According to CME Group's FedWatch, the markets now price in a 58% chance that a rate increase will occur in September. This is down from an 81% chance?before this policy statement? Red metal also benefited from the pressure on inventories, concerns about supply and demand coming from China. Stocks of copper at LME registered warehouses On Wednesday, the number of available stock grew to 101,975 tonnes, after some material was returned to warrant. This halted a drop that saw stocks drop by 4.83% from Wednesday to Wednesday. Aluminium prices, however, continued to rise, with a 0.05% increase on the LME and 1.03% growth on the SHFE. The Middle East is a major producer of light metals. Continued fighting there has impacted the supply. LME stocks of Aluminium The majority of remaining stocks are of Russian origin which many traders avoid. Other LME metals include zinc, which gained 0.22%. Lead ticked up?0.05%, while nickel fell 0.1%. Tin also gained 0.53%. Nickel gained 0.66%, and tin gained 0.46%.
-
Israeli strikes kill three people in Gaza including two children amid new ceasefire
Health officials reported that Israeli strikes in Gaza Strip killed three people including two children on Thursday. Meanwhile, mediators were holding 'new' talks with Hamas leaders, to help implement the U.S.-brokered Gaza Peace Plan. Medical personnel said that an Israeli airstrike in Khan Younis south of the enclave killed a boy and a girl aged eight. Medical personnel reported that an Israeli airstrike in Bureij Refugee Camp, central Gaza Strip, killed an 18-month old child and injured at least eight others. Both strikes were said to have targeted Hamas militants by the Israeli military. Gaza's health officials report that the latest deaths bring to more than 1,200 Palestinians killed in Israeli attacks, most of them civilians, since the ceasefire went into effect. Hamas doesn't usually reveal its losses. The ceasefire has stopped the full-scale fighting, but not the near-daily Israeli strikes. In the same time period, militants in Gaza have killed four Israeli soldiers. CAIRO TALKS Hamas leaders met in Cairo with mediators from Egypt?, Qatar?and Turkey to discuss the implementation of President Donald Trump’s Gaza Plan, which was presented by his Board of Peace. The plan included a massive increase in humanitarian assistance, a civilian Palestinian government, Hamas disarmament, Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and a multinational force to maintain security. The progress of the previous months has been stagnant. Hamas' official stated on Thursday that the group would be coming up with a positive and good response. However, he did not say if the group had agreed to disarm fully -- a key sticking point in the negotiations over the last four months. Hamas demands that Israel commits to stopping its attacks on Gaza, and withdrawing all of its forces. Hamas sources said that the group would "confine" and?store heavy weapons in a Palestinian authority, but not give them to Israel. Hamas did not comment on that. Israel and the Board for Peace have not yet made a decision on the fate of personal or light weapons, or whether Israel will accept the new Hamas position. The Board of Peace has declined to comment immediately on the Cairo discussions. Israel wants Hamas?to cede its power completely in Gaza, and to disarm fully. Hamas disbanded a de-facto Gaza government in the last month, but maintained a caretaking group to ensure vital services were provided to residents. Israel controls approximately?64% (or a little more) of the small coastal Gaza Strip that was bombed into ruins by Israel's 2-year military campaign following a Hamas attack in 2023 on southern Israel. Hamas controls Gaza, where nearly all its 2 million residents live in a tiny sliver on the coast. They are mostly living in tents, or in damaged buildings, and face dire living conditions. Reporting by Nidal Al-Mughrabi, editing by Gareth Jones
-
Outokumpu's Q2 profit forecast is behind the original due to costs.
Outokumpu's shares fell 10% on Thursday after it reported a core profit for the second quarter that was below market expectations. The European stainless steel demand has remained largely unchanged, and increased costs have offset increases in volume and pricing. The adjusted earnings of the Finnish company before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation in the April-June quarter rose by 33%, but they were still below the EUR114 million consensus forecast provided by the company. Outokumpu's profitability in Europe, its largest business unit, was broadly stable, as positive effects from higher volumes and a higher selling price were offset by a less favorable product mix and increased variable costs. The report said that the conflict in the Middle East had a limited direct impact on the market and was mainly due to higher freight costs. However, it also added that the uncertainty created by the conflict increased. The company's core result in Europe increased to EUR17 million, up from EUR16 million last year. However, this was just marginally higher than the EUR16 millions it reported the previous year. European steel producers, who have been under pressure for years by low domestic demand, high energy prices and cheap Asian imports, are now set to benefit from stricter import quotas on steel and a carbon tax at the border of the European Union. Outokumpu CEO Kati Ter Horst stated in a press release that "market dynamics were supported by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and steel safeguard measures which came into force on July 1, 2020." Outokumpu said that its stainless steel deliveries rose by 5% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter but were expected to remain flat or even decline by 10% during the weaker season. The third-quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to remain the same as in the second quarter. Earlier?this?month, rival SSAB reported a second quarter earnings miss. This was due to a rise in logistics and energy costs caused by the Iran war.
-
Gold falls as Treasury yields rise and offset the focus on Warsh’s inflation message
Gold prices fell on Thursday due to higher?U.S. Markets assessed the yields on Treasury bonds, as well as comments made by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh about tackling inflation following this week's unchanged interest rates. As of 0714 GMT spot gold was down 0.5% to $4,045.59 an ounce after a 2% rise in the previous session. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery gained 0.2%, to $4043.70. The yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes increased, increasing the cost of bullion. Soni Kumari, an ANZ analyst, said that "Yields" are a result of rate expectations. If the market believes that higher rates will be imposed due to inflation fears, then yields will rise. The Federal Reserve, divided by its own divisions, left the interest rate unchanged on Wednesday. Warsh reiterated that the central bank is committed to controlling inflation. This uncertainty about next steps has been created for markets. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but it becomes less attractive as a non yielding asset when interest rates are high. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the markets still price in a 67% probability of a rate increase in September. This is down from 81% just before the policy announcement. Investors also await the U.S. The Personal Consumption Expenditure data (PCE), due at?1230 GMT. The U.S. military announced that on a geopolitical level, it carried out new strikes in Iran, intensifying the 'five-month war, which was already expanding outside its main fronts to include additional countries in this region. Analysts at TD Securities wrote in a report that "the yellow metal will likely drift back to $3,900 an ounce because?oil is still under pressure to'move higher throughout the summer." Spot silver dropped 0.3% to $57.49 an ounce, and platinum dropped 1% to $1.595.38. Palladium increased 0.7% to $1255.67. (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair in Bengaluru, Sherry Jacob Phillips, and Pablo Sinha)
-
Greek firefighters continue to battle deadly fires in Crete on a second-day basis
ATHENS, 30 July - Greek firefighters fought deadly wildfires for a second consecutive day on Crete on Thursday. Wildfires are continuing to spread across Europe after days of devastating fires in Spain and France. Three 'Greek firemen died on Wednesday while battling blazes in high winds, both on Crete and the mainland. Two more were injured. Two firefighters were killed after they became trapped in a Crete fire while driving between firefronts near the village Krya Vrysi, in the middle of the island. A second person died in a fire in the Peloponnese. Residents and tourists from Krya Vrysi, and other villages nearby were evacuated by sea and land on Wednesday in the centre of the island after high winds caused the fire to spread out of control. More than 200 firefighters, armed with fire engines, water-carrying planes, and other equipment, battled two wildfires in Crete on Thursday. Olive groves, agricultural crops, and houses were all damaged, as well as warehouses, and some were destroyed. On SKAI TV, Giorgos tsapakos, the deputy regional governor of civil protection for Crete, said: "Unfortunately, there is no improvement. The latest information indicates that the winds will increase in the afternoon." He said that the strong winds prevented aircraft from operating this morning. The head of EU's emergency response centre warned on Wednesday that Greece and Italy would face an increased wildfire risk in the coming weeks. Europe, which is the fastest-warming continent in the world, has experienced record-breaking heatwaves as climate change increases heat and drought, allowing wildfires spread more quickly. In the past few days, blazes in Spain and France have caused large-scale evacuations of people. They have scorched through forests and killed wildlife. The Spanish Interior Minister Fernando Grande Marlaska warned on Wednesday of "three difficult days" with high temperatures and strong winds, as well as a major fire that had been burning in the Avila region and Madrid. This was despite the fact that the fires were stabilising and allowing the authorities to lift the orders for evacuation and sheltering-in-place. (Reporting and editing by Hugh Lawson; Lefteris papadimas)
-
WGC: India's new gold tax increases grey market and hurts organized trade.
The World Gold Council reported on Thursday that India has seen an increase in unofficial gold imports since the government increased import tariffs earlier this year. This has led to a widening of margins for grey market operators, and hurting organised players. India, the world's second largest gold consumer, after China, increased import tariffs by more than two-thirds to 15%, on May 13, to reduce demand, reduce the trade deficit, and ease the pressure on the rupee. The arbitrage is huge. Sachin Jain is the chief executive officer of WGC India. He said that grey market inflows, and the disruption caused by them, hurt organised players. The government did not immediately answer 'questions'. The Indian government informed parliament that between April 1 and May 12, they seized 86.16kg of gold, but this increased to 160.91kg. According to WGC data, gold smuggling dropped to 69.2 tons from 156.1 tons the year before, and further declined in 2025, to 20.4 tonnes, after India reduced import duties on its gold. Industry officials said last month that the recent revival of the grey market indicates illegal imports may exceed 100 tons by 2026. India's net imports of gold fell by 23% on an annual basis to 98.1 tons in the second quarter. This is the lowest quarterly level seen since September 2020 when pandemic-induced locksdowns curbed the demand. The report stated that gold demand for the 'June quarter' fell 6% from the previous year to 131.4 tonnes, due to falling jewellery sales outweighing strong investment -demand. Jain stated that the demand is likely to improve in the second half of the year, if prices stay stable. This is because many consumers are expected to return after missing the previous rally. (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala; Rajendra Jadhav)
-
Ampol shares reach a 2-year high after refining margins triple
Ampol, an Australian company, said that its Lytton refinery's margins more than tripled in the 2nd quarter. This was boosted by the surging oil prices linked to the Middle East war, which pushed the shares of the company to their highest levels in over two years. Ampol reported that the prolonged closure of Strait of Hormuz has tightened crude supply to Asian refiners. This has reduced refinery activity, and driven up refined fuel margins because of product shortages. Ampol stated that it was in a good position to handle any conflict as they had secured supplies for the majority of the quarter. The top fuel retailer in the country reported a 255% increase in its Lytton refinery margins for the second quarter, from $8.71 per barrel a year earlier to $30.93. The total volume of group sales fell from 6,304 million litres to 6,176 millions litres. Mark Elzayed said that the earnings strength was driven primarily by exceptional refining profit margins, rather than a broad-based growth in volume. Elzayed warned that a sustained easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz area could lower geopolitical risks and reduce refining margins to longer-term averages, posing a risk to Lytton’s refining earnings. The shares of the company rose 0.6% at 0418 GMT, after gaining as much as 3.4% in the previous session. Ampol announced that its Lytton Refinery will be closed between August and October to perform maintenance. It expects this to result in a reduction of annual production of about 300 million litres. The company will'manage reductions through its diversified sources of supply, import infrastructure and trading capabilities. Elzayed stated that the company's first-half earnings should be sufficient to allow it to fund the Lytton Refinery turnaround with internal cash flow. Fuel retailer reported that its first-half RCOP EBIT was A$1.35billion ($965m) on a non-audited basis. This is more than tripled from the year before.
-
Asian stocks falter after a deep crash, and the Fed leaves markets in the dark about interest rates
Asian stocks were volatile on Thursday, after a week filled with?market turmoil sparked by AI fears. A divided Federal Reserve remained steadfast on interest rates and left the bond markets unsure of their next move. Brent 'futures' fell below $90 a barrel after a day of turbulence sparked by AI jitters. The Federal Reserve, divided, remained steadfast on rates and left bond markets uncertain about the next move. Investors were confused by the Fed's split decision on whether it would raise rates to combat inflation. The yields on U.S. Treasuries with longer maturities rose to their highest level in 19 years. Nasdaq Futures rose by 0.4%, while European Futures indicated a muted opening. Investors will focus on the Bank of England's policy announcement, which is expected to remain unchanged. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.6% last after swinging between gains and losses throughout the session. Japan's Nikkei index was up 0.24%, but is still on track for a weekly drop of 4%. Asian chipmakers were the focus of attention in the past week, after a brutal selloff on South Korean stocks wiped out more than $2 trillion from the market value. This heightened investor concern over the return on AI investments. Vasu Menon is the managing director for investment strategy at OCBC. He said that the markets will remain volatile in the short term due to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy and the steepening curve of Treasury yields. VOLATILE KOSPI - SHOWING NO SIGN OF EASING? The KOSPI fell 1% during choppy trades, and was on course for a weekly drop of 15%. This selloff prompted Finance Minister Koo Yon-cheol?to apologize for the introduction of single-stock leveraged exchange-traded funds, which led?authorities?to unveil measures to stabilize the market. Gina Kim is the portfolio manager of emerging market equity at Nordea Asset Management, Singapore. She said: "Given the fact that the fundamental thesis has not changed, it does seem like there's a panicky, irrational element to the current sales." Samsung Electronics, which posted a 250-fold increase in chip profits to ease some nervousness, said that it expects the chip shortages will worsen and continue into 2028. The earnings reports of Microsoft and Meta, two megacaps in the AI race, showed starkly different fortunes. Microsoft's shares rose after it assured investors that they would continue to generate cash until fiscal 2027, despite its heavy spending. Meta's share price fell, however, following a 91% decline in free cash flow for the second quarter. The earnings from Apple and Amazon on Thursday will give more clarity about the sustainability of the AI market. FED LOOK TO MARKETS AS CUES Kevin Warsh, Fed chair, spoke at a media conference after the meeting. He promised to control inflation. However, he did not give any indications of what steps the central banks might take. Warsh pointed out that bond yields have risen significantly since the Fed’s last policy meeting. This reflects market expectations for higher interest rates. He welcomed the move while stressing it didn't oblige the Fed to confirm those expectations through policy actions. Blerina Uruci, T. Rowe Price's chief U.S. economics officer said: "To me, this is a sign that the market has already done the Fed’s job." Warsh's hawkish tones?will ultimately not be enough?to ensure price stability. The market will soon learn that Warsh, the FOMC and their lack of forward guidance will not deliver a policy outcome simply because the market priced it. The confusion caused the yields of 30-year U.S. Bonds to fall from their peak in June 2007 (5.2273%) late in New York Trading. Fed funds futures now indicate that there is a 60% probability the Fed will?raise rates at its September meeting and have 33 basis points of tightening already priced in. Kerry Craig, global asset manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management and J.P. Morgan Asset Management's strategist for global markets, said that the Fed will continue to be questioned about its credibility. The gap between the Fed’s words and actions could pose a problem for market pricing. A new chair is faced with a divided committee, and a bond markets that are beginning to doubt the central bank's determination. (Reporting and editing by Ankur Banerjee, Rae Wee and Lincoln Feast in Singapore.
Iran's ruling class caught between Trump's repression and an economy in trouble
Iran's clerical leadership may find that engaging the "Great Satan" in order to negotiate a nuclear agreement and ease crippling economic sanctions is the lesser evil.
Four Iranian officials have said that despite its deep mistrust for the United States and in particular President Donald Trump, Tehran is growing increasingly worried about public anger at economic hardships escalating into massive protests.
People said that despite the defiant and unyielding rhetoric of Iran's clerical leadership in public, there was a pragmatic desire within Tehran's power corridors to strike a bargain with Washington.
Tehran's fears were exacerbated when Trump revived his "maximum-pressure" campaign from his first term, which aimed to reduce Iran's oil sales to zero by imposing more sanctions. This would bring Iran's fragile economy to its knees.
Masoud Pezeshkian, the president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, has repeatedly emphasized the severity of its economic situation, saying that it was more difficult than the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. He also pointed this month at the latest round U.S. sanction targeting oil tankers transporting Iranian oil.
According to one of the Iranian officials, leaders are concerned that cutting off diplomatic avenues could further fuel discontent in Iran against Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This is because he is the final decision maker for the Islamic Republic.
Alex Vatanka is the director of the Middle East Institute's Iran Program in Washington. He said that there was no doubt whatsoever that the man, who has been the supreme leader since 1989, and his foreign policies preferences are the most responsible for the current state of affairs.
Iran's poor economy prompted Khamenei, who was then president of Iran, to back the nuclear deal struck in 2015 with major powers. This led to the lifting of Western sanctions as well as an improvement in economic circumstances. Then-President Trump’s renewed attack on Iran after he withdrew from the nuclear agreement in 2018 squeezed life standards again.
The situation is getting worse every day. I cannot afford to pay rent, bills or clothes for my kids," Alireza Yousefi said, 42, an Isfahan teacher. "Now, even more sanctions make it impossible to survive."
The Iranian Foreign Ministry did not reply to a comment request.
"ON EQUAL TERMS"
Trump, while increasing the pressure on Iran through new sanctions and military threats, also opened the doors to negotiations when he sent a letter to Khamenei suggesting nuclear talks.
Khamenei rejected the offer Wednesday, repeatedly saying that Washington had made excessive demands and that Tehran wouldn't be pushed into negotiations.
In an interview published Thursday, Abbas Araqchi, Iran's top diplomatic official said: "If we negotiate while the other party is exerting maximum pressure on us, we will be in a weaker position and achieve nothing."
He said that "the other side must be convinced of the ineffectiveness of the pressure policy - then we can sit down at the table and negotiate on equal terms."
A senior Iranian official stated that there was no other option but to reach a deal, and it was possible. However, the road ahead was bumpy, given Iran's mistrust of Trump following his abandonment of the 2015 agreement.
Iran's economic collapse has been largely prevented by China, its main oil buyer and one of the few countries still trading with Tehran in spite of sanctions.
According to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, oil exports dropped after Trump abandoned the nuclear deal, but recovered in recent years. They are expected to generate more than $50 billion of revenue between 2022 and 2023, as Iran finds ways to avoid sanctions.
But uncertainty still looms about the future of exports, as Trump's policy of maximum pressure aims to choke off Iran's crude oil sales by imposing multiple rounds of sanctions against tankers and other entities involved in trade.
PUBLIC ANGER SIMMERS
Iran's rulers also face a series of crises: energy and water shortages; a collapsing dollar; military setbacks for regional allies, and growing fear of an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities. All of these are exacerbated by Trump's hard stance.
Lack of infrastructure investment, excessive consumption driven by subsidies and declining natural gas production, as well as inefficient irrigation are all contributing to the energy and water sector's problems. This leads to blackouts, and water shortages.
According to foreign exchange websites and officials, the Iranian rial's value has dropped by more than 90 percent against the dollar ever since sanctions were reinstated in 2018.
State media reported that Iranians, worried about Trump's harsh approach, have bought dollars, other hard currency, gold, or cryptocurrency, indicating further weakness in the rial.
State media reported that the price of rice had risen 200% in the past year. Media reports indicate that housing and utility costs in Tehran and other major cities have risen sharply in recent months. They climbed roughly 60%, mainly due to the steep decline of the rial and the rising cost of raw materials.
Some Iranian experts claim that the official inflation rate is over 50%, but it hovers at around 40%. The Statistical Center of Iran has reported a dramatic rise in food costs. In January, the prices of a third of the most essential commodities increased by 40%. They were now more than twice as high as they had been in the previous month.
According to the Tasnim News Agency, Ebrahim Sadeghifar, head of Iran's Institute of Labor and Social Welfare (IILSW), 22%-27% of Iranians are now living below the poverty level.
Last week, Iran's Jomhuri-ye Eslami daily reported that the poverty rate was around 50%.
I can't pay the rent on my carpet shop, or my employees' wages. No one can afford to buy carpets. "If this situation continues, I'll have to layoff my staff," Morteza (39), said over the phone, from Tehran's Grand Bazaar. He gave only his first name.
How can they hope to resolve the economic crisis without talking to Trump? Talk to him, and you will reach an agreement. "You cannot afford to be proud on an empty stomach."
NUCLEAR RED LINE
According to Iranian state media, at least 216 protests took place in Iran during February. These included retirees and workers, as well as students, health professionals, merchants, and healthcare professionals. According to reports, the protests were mainly focused on economic hardships such as low wages and unpaid salaries for months.
Officials fear that a decline in living standards, despite the small scale of most protests, could explode.
One of the four officials who was close to the government said, "The country is a powder-keg and any further economic strains could ignite it."
The officials stated that Iran's ruling class is aware of the possibility of a return of unrest, similar to protests from 2022-2023 over the death of Mahsa Amin in custody or nationwide protests of 2019 over the rise in fuel prices.
Senior Iranian officials said that there were several high-level discussions to discuss the potential of new mass demonstrations and possible measures to prevent them.
Iranian officials, however, said that despite concerns about possible unrest, Tehran would only go so far with any discussions with Trump. They stressed that "excessive requests" such as the dismantling of Iran's nuclear program or conventional missile capability were not on the table.
The senior official stated that "yes, there is concern about increased economic pressure and there are concerns regarding the nation's anger growing, but we cannot give up our right to produce nuclear energy just because Trump wants it."
Ali Vaez is the Iran project director for International Crisis Group. He said that Iran's leaders believed that negotiations with Trump would be a sign of weakness and could lead to more pressure rather than less.
He said: "Ayatollah Khmenei appears to believe that surrendering is the only thing more dangerous than sanctions." (Reporting, Writing and Editing by Parisa Hafezi)
(source: Reuters)