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Gold reaches historic highs of $3,000/oz in historic safe haven rally
Gold broke the $3,000 barrier for the first-time on Friday as investors sought refuge from the economic uncertainty caused by US President Donald Trump’s tariff war. Gold spot rose by 0.1% at 9:42am ET (1342 GMT), after reaching a record high of $3004.86. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.4% to $3.002.30. Tai Wong said that gold's rise past the $3000 mark was due to "beleaguered" investors who were looking for a safe haven given Trump's turmoil on the stock market. Bullion, traditionally viewed as an asset to store value in times of geopolitical unrest, has gained nearly 14% this year. This is due in part to concerns about the impact of Trump’s tariffs, and a decline in stock markets. Trump's protectionist policy has unsettled the global markets. U.S. stock prices have been experiencing a sell-off for a week, and S&P 500 is now in correction territory after losing $4 trillion. "Real Asset Money Managers, especially in the West, required a strong stock-market and an economic slowdown to return to Gold -- and this is happening now," Ole Hansen said, head of commodity strategies at Saxo Bank. The central bank demand for gold has also supported the price of gold, with China being a key buyer who increased its bullion reserve in February for the fourth consecutive month. David Russell, CEO of GoldCore, said, "Central banks continue to record high gold purchases, in order to diversify their portfolios away from the volatile U.S. Dollar." The expectation of monetary ease by the U.S. Federal Reserve has also boosted zero-yield. The Fed is expected keep rates the same next week. However, traders expect to see a return to rate cuts in June. Gold could still see a large correction "when trade issues are resolved and asset markets rebound." Wong said. Silver rose 0.3%, to $33.9 per ounce. Platinum gained 0.3%, to $997.00. Palladium was up 2.1%, to $978.18.
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Yemeni camel herders are at risk from landmines
The Marib Province in Yemen has a landmine warning sign that reminds camel-herders of their danger. Bedouins who have been displaced by war or forced to live in smaller areas hope to return to their nomadic lifestyle. Finding safe land for grazing is dangerous. Landmines are a problem in the south. Ogaim, a camel-herder, said that a landmine explodes every time one of the animals moves south. He said that nomads had moved north in order to avoid minefields and conflict zones. Yemen's Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, have been fighting a Saudi-led alliance against them since 2015. Since the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza began in 2023, a United Nations peace process is stalled. The United Nations warns that despite the fact that there have been no significant changes or escalation of violence in recent years, a new outbreak of violence is possible. Human Rights Watch reported in 2024 that landmines planted by warring parties continued to kill and injure civilians in areas where the fighting had ceased. Saleh al-Qadry, a herder from the Houthis war zone, said: "Landmines is our first problem near the Houthis." Mwatana, a local human rights organisation, has documented 537 landmine incidents between January 2016 and March 2024. Abed al-Thawr is an official in the Houthi Defense Ministry. He said that mercenaries had planted the mines, and the Houthis weren't responsible. According to the United Nations Development Programme, landmines and explosives remnants of war are a grave threat for millions of Yemenis. Herders in Marib in central Yemen say they have been forced to confine their camels and stay in tents because of landmines. "If we let them go, they might head to the landmines, step on them and cause them to explode," explained camel herder Saeed Oaig. (Written by Clauda Tanias; edited by Michael Georgy, Peter Graff and Peter Graff).
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Barclays lowers Brent oil forecast for 2025 on the basis of soft demand
Barclays lowered their 2025 Brent Oil price forecast on Friday by $9 per barrel. This was due to a weaker demand outlook in the face of increased economic uncertainty. Brent crude futures traded at around $70 per barrel on Friday after closing 1.5% lower the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was around $67 per barrel. Barclays analysts said that they were "neutral" on oil prices compared to the curve. They also revised down their 2025 demand forecast to 510,000 barrels a day, due to low-frequency indicators being soft and economic uncertainty increasing. It said: "However we don't turn bearish in relation to the curve as inventories are still low and declining and risks for the supply outlook are also skewed towards the downside due to producers who are price sensitive pulling back, and geopolitical pressures." The International Energy Agency Warning: Thursday Global oil supply may exceed demand this year by 600,000 barrels a day due to the U.S.-led growth and lower-than-expected demand. Barclays has also sharply lowered its outlook for oil demand, now expecting a growth of 900,000. barrels per a day in the entire year. (Reporting from Brijesh Patel and Anmol Chaubey in Bengaluru, Editing by Paul Simao.)
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"Germany is back": Merz secures key support for debt deal
German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz said on Friday he had secured the crucial backing of the Greens for a massive increase in state borrowing, clearing the way for the outgoing parliament to approve it next week. Merz's conservatives, and the Social Democrats who are currently in negotiations to form government following an election last week, proposed a 500-billion euro fund for infrastructure, and radical changes to borrowing regulations to boost defence and revitalize growth in Europe’s largest economy. The Greens have now given them the necessary two-thirds majority to pass constitutional changes. A vote is scheduled for the following week. Merz justified the need for the package to be passed by the incoming parliament, citing recent policy shifts in the United States. President Donald Trump has warned that an hostile Russia and a unreliable U.S. may leave the continent vulnerable. Merz's conservatives, who won the election, said at a press conference: "It sends a clear signal to our partners.. and also to the enemy of our freedom. We can defend ourselves." "Germany has returned." "Germany is contributing significantly to the defense of freedom and peace in Europe," added he. The news of the agreement lifted the yields on euro zone government bonds, the shares and the dollar as investors expected the borrowing plan to boost the European economy. The benchmark DAX index in Germany rose almost 2%. Both the mid-cap and small-cap indices also grew over 3%. The euro gained 0.5%, bringing its monthly gains to 5%. DEBT BRAKE IS 'BURIED Merz wants the funds secured before a new Parliament convenes, on March 25. Otherwise they run the risk of being blocked by a larger contingent of lawmakers from far right and far left. He said that the compromise reached with Greens included the allocation of 100 Billion Euros for the Climate and Economic Transformation Fund from the 500 Billion Euros earmarked for Infrastructure. The bill also contains a constitutional amendment that will exempt expenditures on defence, civil protection and disaster relief, intelligence services and information security from borrowing limits, referred to as the 'debt break', if they are greater than 1% of GDP. Reforms are aimed at rolling back debt rules that were imposed in 2008 after the global financial crisis, but have been criticised since then as being outdated and placing Germany in a fiscal straitjacket. Carsten Brzeski said, "With today's plans, the debt brake may not be dead, but more like buried alive," ING global head of macro. The only fiscal limit for the German government is the Stability and Growth Pact (EU). We know from experience that these rules are as flexible as butter when needed. (Reporting and writing by Andreas Rinke; reporting by Markus Wacket; writing by Sarah Marsh; editing by Toby Chopra).
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The embattled Congo President considers meeting with the M23 rebels
Felix Tshisekedi, the president of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), has been denying dialogue to M23 rebels backed by Rwanda that are ravaging eastern parts of his nation. But a series of defeats as well as waning support in regional circles have made him reconsider. Angola, a neighboring country, surprised many this week when it announced that Congo and M23 will sit down for direct negotiations in its capital city on 18 March. This is at a moment when the rebels continue to seize territory rich with minerals like coltan and tantalum. Tshisekedi’s government has not publicly committed to sending a delegation, but this week three sources in the government said he was seriously considering it. Diplomats and analysts say that regional powers seem to agree on the need for dialogue, given the weak resistance of the Congolese army and its allies against the advance of the rebels. One senior diplomat stated: "I've never spoken to an African country who said Kinshasa should not talk to M23." Everyone says, "How can you stop fighting if you do not engage them?" A source told us on Friday that the government's participation in Luanda was certain, but it was too early to determine who would be representing Kinshasa. Some sources stated that the debate is still going on and a decision will not be likely made until the next week. M23, on its part, demanded that Tshisekedi give a clear commitment to engaging in dialogue. Both sides expressed concerns about the framework, and the way in which the Angola-hosted discussions would conform to regional decisions aimed at resolving the conflict. On Monday, the foreign and defence ministers of Southern and East Africa will meet in Harare to discuss efforts to end hostilities and promote political dialogue. 'FAILED' MILITARY APPROACH According to U.N. expert, M23 has thousands of Rwandan soldiers backing them. Their superior weapons and equipment have allowed them to take control of east Congo's largest cities as well as a number of smaller towns since late January. Rwanda denies that it provided arms and troops for M23 and claims its forces were acting in self-defense against the Congolese Army and militias hostile towards Kigali. It is unlikely that sitting down with M23 in Kinshasa would be popular, especially given Tshisekedi’s repeated promises to never do so. Bob Kabamba, a Congolese analyst at the University of Liege (Belgium), said that it would be an admission that Tshisekedi’s pursuit of a "military solution" has "failed". He said that "Kinshasa is stuck in its position, believing the rebel alliance must not cross a threshold of critical importance." Angola, Congo's neighbor, may have also made the same calculation. They were wary of getting sucked into a regional conflict of greater scale that would be similar to those which killed millions of people in 1990s and 2000s. "Angola clearly decided it was necessary to intervene in order to prevent the M23's advance towards the west of DRC," said Stephanie Wolters. She is a Congo analyst at South Africa's Institute for Security Studies. This week, the lack of confidence in Tshisekedi to change the military tide was seen in the approval by Southern African leaders of the "phased" withdrawal of a regional mission known as SAMIDRC which had the mandate to combat rebels. Wolters stated that although the deployment was not strong enough to make a difference in the fight against M23 but its presence was a sign of regional support towards Congo. Its departure was therefore deemed 'a significant blow'. (Additional reporting by Giulia Paraavicini; Writing and editing by Robbie Corey Boulet)
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Ukrainian authorities claim that an anti-Russian activist was killed in Odesa.
Unknown gunmen killed a prominent antirussian activist on Friday in Odesa, a Ukrainian port city. The 31-year old victim was not named, but Ukrainian media reported that it was Demian Hanul. Hanul was a blogger and former member of Right Sector who was a radical extremist group. He was also a participant in the Maidan Revolution against Ukraine's pro-Russian President back in 2014. The national police announced on Telegram that the incident was a murder premeditated and committed with an order. A video clip was also posted on a local Telegram channel, claiming to show the shooting. The video clip showed a burly, muscular man holding the gun to a man's head who was lying on the pavement. He fired, then walked away. The authenticity of the clip could not be verified. Ukraine's Interior Minister said that he received "specific clues", which would help him track down the suspect. He also stated that the chief of the national police is heading to Odesa, to lead the investigation. The Russian state media had previously branded Hanul as "a neo Nazi responsible for the arson attacks on the Trade Union House Odessa", a referance to the deadly fighting in May 2014 between pro-Russian activist and supporters of Ukrainian unification. In April 2024, a Moscow court in absentia charged Hanul with several crimes. These included damaging Soviet-era monuments of war for which he could have faced up 20 years in prison. In July, several media outlets reported that Hanul requested police protection in Ukraine after receiving threats. (Reporting and Editing by Gareth Jones. Yuliia Dyesa)
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Transport emissions of Inditex, Zara's owner, will increase in 2024
Inditex, Zara's owner, increased its emissions from transport by 10% between 2024 and 2024. This is because Zara used more flights in order to move clothing from its production centres in Asia to the logistics hub in Spain to get it into stores. This increase is a result of increased air freight usage. Attacks on container ships at the Red Sea forced vessels to divert from the Suez Canal to a longer route around Africa in order to transport goods from Asia. As a result, shipping emissions have increased. Inditex's annual report, published on Friday by Inditex, stated that emissions from upstream transport and distribution were 2,614,230 tons of CO2eq in its 2024 financial period ending January 31. This is an increase of 10% from the 2,378,464 tones in 2023. Inditex didn't give any reason in the report for the rise. The company didn't immediately respond to a comment request. In November, it was reported that Inditex had increased its use air freight to transport products from its factories in India and Bangladesh - two important manufacturing hubs - to its Zaragoza logistic hub in Spain in order to avoid shipping delays which could hinder its ability to quickly get trendy clothes into the stores. Inditex previously stated that it was working to reduce transportation emissions by using measures such as alternative fuels, optimising routes and container occupancy rates. The retailer owns Bershka and Massimo Dutti brands. It reported on Wednesday a 10.5% increase in 2024 sales, currency adjusted, of 38.6 billion euro ($42.06billion). The company's greenhouse gas emissions in 2024 were the same as in 2023. This was due to a decrease in emissions related to its product sourcing category, which is its largest emissions category. Inditex said that the reduction in emissions from "purchased products and services" was 6%. They went from 7,102.152 tonnes to 6,696,995 tons of CO2 equivalent. This is due to Inditex buying more textiles with a low environmental impact. Inditex reported that 33% of the fibres and raw material used by Inditex in 2024 will come from post-consumer waste, up from just 18% in 2013. The retailer has not made any progress in reducing indirect emissions, including the category of purchased goods and services. Inditex aims to reduce its "scope 3", or supply-chain emissions, by 51% in 2030, and by 90% by 2040 compared with 2018 levels. Inditex's scope three emissions in 2024 will be 13,427.762 tonnes CO2 equivalent. This is a small increase from the level of 2013,421,935, as reported by the annual report. The report published milestones that showed by 2030, it would need to reduce that number to 4,916,311 tons, and by 2040, to 1,003,329 tones to meet the targets approved by the Science Based Targets Initiative. This global nonprofit assesses and reviews companies' climate goals.
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What Germany's planned expenditure spree might mean for the economy
German chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz reached an agreement with the Greens on Friday on a massive increase in state borrowing, just days before a parliamentary vote on the issue, a source close to the negotiations said. The parties aspiring to form the next government have agreed to create a special infrastructure fund of 500 billion euros ($545 billion), and to remove the debt restrictions on defence investments. What the future plans for Europe's biggest economy could mean in terms of growth and debt: Could the spending boost Germany's ailing economy? According to economists yes, according to the economists The German DIW Economic Institute said that the planned infrastructure fund could alone increase economic output by more than two percentage point per year in the next ten years. DIW stated that a growth rate of 2,1% in 2026 is now expected instead of the previous 1.1%. A second institute, IfW, also revised its growth estimate for Germany in 2026, predicting a 1.5% expansion on the backs of expected increases in public expenditure. The IMK, an economic institute that has not updated its forecasts yet, predicts the German economy to grow by only 0.1% this year after two years of contractions in 2023-2024. However, the institute said new proposals might make a significant difference. Sebastian Dullien, IMK’s director of economics, said: "If the financial package was implemented quickly, a noticeable acceleration in growth could be expected for the second half the year. Growth in the entire year may also move away from stagnation." WHICH SECTORS ARE SET TO PROFIT MOST? Construction can benefit from the fund set up to upgrade Germany's crumbling infrastructure. The shares of Heidelberg Materials increased by 4% Friday. Bilfinger shares rose 4.8%, while Hochtief's were up 5%. Also, the defence industry stands to benefit. The proposed coalition plans would amend the constitution to remove the strict limit on borrowing in Germany, known as the "debt brake", and allow for higher defence spending plans. The news of this agreement has led to gains of between 5% and 7% for Rheinmetall, Hensoldt, Thyssenkrupp, and Renk, all German defence companies. How much more debt will Germany take on? Lots. Germany's debt was 64% of its gross domestic product last year. This is lower than other industrialized countries like the United States or France. Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank, expects this level to rise by 10 percentage points in the next few years due to the special fund created for infrastructure. If defence spending was increased to 3.5% of GDP, the debt ratio would increase by 2.5 points per year. Kraemer stated that the government debt ratio in 10 years could reach 90%. However, this is also dependent on inflation, and therefore, not easy to predict. Friedrich Heinemann, a ZEW economist, said: "This would mean Germany would soon join the ranks the EU's most indebted countries." He predicted that Germany's debt could reach 100% in 2034. WHAT WOULD THIS DO TO GERMANY'S TRIPLE A CREDIT RATING Not necessarily. Eiko Sievert, a Scope analyst, said that the spending plans may increase Germany's level of debt to 72% of its gross domestic product in 2029. This is below the previous record of 80%, which was set after the global financial crash of 2010, when Germany maintained its AAA rating. Sievert stated that the future of this possibility depends on the implementation and success of the necessary reforms in politics to boost competitiveness and economic development. CAN GERMANY FIND SUFFICIENT LENDERS? Germany is a popular borrower because of its top credit rating. To make German government bonds more attractive to investors, however, it would be necessary to increase interest rates. Kraemer, Commerzbank's Kraemer, says that investors are likely to demand a higher risk premium for German government bonds. Investors digested the news about the agreement regarding spending plans. This indicates that Germany's interest payments will likely increase. Could Germany's Spending Spree Influence ECB Policy? It is possible that pumping hundreds and billions of Euros into the economy will lead to inflation. The ECB must take into consideration that inflationary pressures will increase again due to the planned expansionary fiscal policies in Germany, said Cyrus de la Rubia. Chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. Reporting by Rene Wagner and Maria Martinez, Writing by Rachel More, Editing by Gareth Jones, Christina Fincher
Iran's ruling class caught between Trump's repression and an economy in trouble
Iran's clerical leadership may find that engaging the "Great Satan" in order to negotiate a nuclear agreement and ease crippling economic sanctions is the lesser evil.
Four Iranian officials have said that despite its deep mistrust for the United States and in particular President Donald Trump, Tehran is growing increasingly worried about public anger at economic hardships escalating into massive protests.
People said that despite the defiant and unyielding rhetoric of Iran's clerical leadership in public, there was a pragmatic desire within Tehran's power corridors to strike a bargain with Washington.
Tehran's fears were exacerbated when Trump revived his "maximum-pressure" campaign from his first term, which aimed to reduce Iran's oil sales to zero by imposing more sanctions. This would bring Iran's fragile economy to its knees.
Masoud Pezeshkian, the president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, has repeatedly emphasized the severity of its economic situation, saying that it was more difficult than the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. He also pointed this month at the latest round U.S. sanction targeting oil tankers transporting Iranian oil.
According to one of the Iranian officials, leaders are concerned that cutting off diplomatic avenues could further fuel discontent in Iran against Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This is because he is the final decision maker for the Islamic Republic.
Alex Vatanka is the director of the Middle East Institute's Iran Program in Washington. He said that there was no doubt whatsoever that the man, who has been the supreme leader since 1989, and his foreign policies preferences are the most responsible for the current state of affairs.
Iran's poor economy prompted Khamenei, who was then president of Iran, to back the nuclear deal struck in 2015 with major powers. This led to the lifting of Western sanctions as well as an improvement in economic circumstances. Then-President Trump’s renewed attack on Iran after he withdrew from the nuclear agreement in 2018 squeezed life standards again.
The situation is getting worse every day. I cannot afford to pay rent, bills or clothes for my kids," Alireza Yousefi said, 42, an Isfahan teacher. "Now, even more sanctions make it impossible to survive."
The Iranian Foreign Ministry did not reply to a comment request.
"ON EQUAL TERMS"
Trump, while increasing the pressure on Iran through new sanctions and military threats, also opened the doors to negotiations when he sent a letter to Khamenei suggesting nuclear talks.
Khamenei rejected the offer Wednesday, repeatedly saying that Washington had made excessive demands and that Tehran wouldn't be pushed into negotiations.
In an interview published Thursday, Abbas Araqchi, Iran's top diplomatic official said: "If we negotiate while the other party is exerting maximum pressure on us, we will be in a weaker position and achieve nothing."
He said that "the other side must be convinced of the ineffectiveness of the pressure policy - then we can sit down at the table and negotiate on equal terms."
A senior Iranian official stated that there was no other option but to reach a deal, and it was possible. However, the road ahead was bumpy, given Iran's mistrust of Trump following his abandonment of the 2015 agreement.
Iran's economic collapse has been largely prevented by China, its main oil buyer and one of the few countries still trading with Tehran in spite of sanctions.
According to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, oil exports dropped after Trump abandoned the nuclear deal, but recovered in recent years. They are expected to generate more than $50 billion of revenue between 2022 and 2023, as Iran finds ways to avoid sanctions.
But uncertainty still looms about the future of exports, as Trump's policy of maximum pressure aims to choke off Iran's crude oil sales by imposing multiple rounds of sanctions against tankers and other entities involved in trade.
PUBLIC ANGER SIMMERS
Iran's rulers also face a series of crises: energy and water shortages; a collapsing dollar; military setbacks for regional allies, and growing fear of an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities. All of these are exacerbated by Trump's hard stance.
Lack of infrastructure investment, excessive consumption driven by subsidies and declining natural gas production, as well as inefficient irrigation are all contributing to the energy and water sector's problems. This leads to blackouts, and water shortages.
According to foreign exchange websites and officials, the Iranian rial's value has dropped by more than 90 percent against the dollar ever since sanctions were reinstated in 2018.
State media reported that Iranians, worried about Trump's harsh approach, have bought dollars, other hard currency, gold, or cryptocurrency, indicating further weakness in the rial.
State media reported that the price of rice had risen 200% in the past year. Media reports indicate that housing and utility costs in Tehran and other major cities have risen sharply in recent months. They climbed roughly 60%, mainly due to the steep decline of the rial and the rising cost of raw materials.
Some Iranian experts claim that the official inflation rate is over 50%, but it hovers at around 40%. The Statistical Center of Iran has reported a dramatic rise in food costs. In January, the prices of a third of the most essential commodities increased by 40%. They were now more than twice as high as they had been in the previous month.
According to the Tasnim News Agency, Ebrahim Sadeghifar, head of Iran's Institute of Labor and Social Welfare (IILSW), 22%-27% of Iranians are now living below the poverty level.
Last week, Iran's Jomhuri-ye Eslami daily reported that the poverty rate was around 50%.
I can't pay the rent on my carpet shop, or my employees' wages. No one can afford to buy carpets. "If this situation continues, I'll have to layoff my staff," Morteza (39), said over the phone, from Tehran's Grand Bazaar. He gave only his first name.
How can they hope to resolve the economic crisis without talking to Trump? Talk to him, and you will reach an agreement. "You cannot afford to be proud on an empty stomach."
NUCLEAR RED LINE
According to Iranian state media, at least 216 protests took place in Iran during February. These included retirees and workers, as well as students, health professionals, merchants, and healthcare professionals. According to reports, the protests were mainly focused on economic hardships such as low wages and unpaid salaries for months.
Officials fear that a decline in living standards, despite the small scale of most protests, could explode.
One of the four officials who was close to the government said, "The country is a powder-keg and any further economic strains could ignite it."
The officials stated that Iran's ruling class is aware of the possibility of a return of unrest, similar to protests from 2022-2023 over the death of Mahsa Amin in custody or nationwide protests of 2019 over the rise in fuel prices.
Senior Iranian officials said that there were several high-level discussions to discuss the potential of new mass demonstrations and possible measures to prevent them.
Iranian officials, however, said that despite concerns about possible unrest, Tehran would only go so far with any discussions with Trump. They stressed that "excessive requests" such as the dismantling of Iran's nuclear program or conventional missile capability were not on the table.
The senior official stated that "yes, there is concern about increased economic pressure and there are concerns regarding the nation's anger growing, but we cannot give up our right to produce nuclear energy just because Trump wants it."
Ali Vaez is the Iran project director for International Crisis Group. He said that Iran's leaders believed that negotiations with Trump would be a sign of weakness and could lead to more pressure rather than less.
He said: "Ayatollah Khmenei appears to believe that surrendering is the only thing more dangerous than sanctions." (Reporting, Writing and Editing by Parisa Hafezi)
(source: Reuters)