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EU may maintain Russian oil price caps at $44 per barrel as a way to exert pressure on Moscow
EU diplomats told reporters on Monday that the European Commission could propose to leave the G7 price limit?on Russian oil unchanged when it reviews the price cap in July. This would be a 'effort to reduce Moscow's windfall resulting from the Iran War and the subsequent?oil shock. This 'idea' was floated by the Commission in meetings with European Union representatives over the weekend. It could be included in their 21st package against Russia in response to its war in Ukraine. Last year, the Group of Seven nations, including allies and the U.S. agreed to a price cap that would move based on the market. This was done in order to make the system more effective. In order to reflect the lower average oil price, the countries reduced the price of a barrel from $60 to $47.60. They then revised it down to $44.10 in January. The price cap was set to be implemented in late 2022. Its goal was to reduce Russia’s revenue sources without causing an oil price spike. Third?countries are allowed to buy Russian oil at the maximum price by using Western shipping services and insurance. The cap still applies to up to 30% of the?seaborne Russian crude oil, while the remainder is transported by a shadow-fleet. The West wants to maintain pressure on Russia but Moscow has been enjoying some financial relief since the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Prior to the beginning of the conflict on February 28, one-fifth the world's oil and natural gas flowed through the Strait of Hormuz. Sources said that the Commission could also propose that future price reviews cannot exceed $60 per barrel, regardless of current average prices, given the outlook for sustained high prices throughout the rest of the year. Brent oil futures traded around $93 per barrel on Monday, and analysts have raised their average 2026 oil price predictions 40% since February to 'around $90 a barrel. This measure may be a compromise for the idea that was stalled of a complete ban on maritime services?on Russian Oil, which would have?ended the cap system. The EU countries adopted the legal basis of the ban as part of the previous sanctions package. However, they added the caveat that a decision on the phase-in will not be taken until further coordination with G7. Reporting by Julia Payne, Editing by Paul Simao
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Stocks near record highs, as AI optimism overshadows Iran tensions
Investors were less concerned about the escalating tensions between Iran and the United States, which have driven oil prices higher, as global stocks held onto record highs. U.S. officials said they had struck Iranian military bases?over the weekend, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards responded by claiming to have targeted a U.S. base. Iran's news agency Tasnim reported on Monday that Iran has halted indirect?negotiations after Israel ordered troops into Lebanon to fight Tehran-backed Hezbollah. Fresh hostilities could complicate diplomatic efforts to bring an end to the three-month war. Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 index was largely flat, but near record highs. Energy and technology stocks led gains, while consumer discretionary and materials and utilities were the biggest losers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.43%. The S&P 500 declined 0.05%. And the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.11%. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 1.1%. Nvidia announced a new chip that will bring AI to laptops and desktops. This raises the stakes for the competition between other technology and semiconductor companies. The MSCI All-World Index fell?0.20% on Monday after reaching a new record high. Mark Hackett is the chief market strategist for Nationwide in Philadelphia. He said: "We're in an unusual market period where fundamentals and technicals are convergent to drive the markets higher. We have strong earnings revisions, relentless buying, and a strong economy." Investors fear being on the wrong side of a major development if it occurs. Brent crude futures jumped nearly 7%, to $97.43 per barrel.
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Inflation worries are rising due to the Middle East conflict, and gold is down nearly 2%.
Gold prices dropped nearly 2% on Monday, as tensions in the Middle East increased 'inflation fears' and reinforced expectations that central bankers may continue to tighten monetary policy. As of 10:01 am EDT (1401 GMT), spot gold was down by 1.9%, at $4.451.65 an ounce. This is after it hit a two-week peak on Friday. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 2.5% to $4479.20. The U.S. Dollar firmed up, making metals in that currency more expensive for holders of other currencies. Jim Wyckoff is a market analyst for American Gold Exchange. He said that if bond yields continue to rise and rates start to stabilize or trend down, gold will be under pressure. Iran claimed it had attacked an American airbase following the weekend U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets. Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported that Iran's negotiation team had'said' it would stop exchanging messages with the United States via mediators. Oil prices continued to rise, adding to inflation concerns linked to the Iran war, which could cause central banks to increase interest rates in order to combat rising price pressures. According to CME Group’s FedWatch?tool, traders have estimated that there is a 56% probability of at least one rate hike in the U.S. by year's end. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but its appeal tends to diminish in an environment of high interest rates because it doesn't generate any yield. Participants in the market will be focusing on a series U.S. job data releases that are due to be released?this coming week. They'll also pay attention to remarks by Federal Reserve officials. Ole Hansen, analyst at Saxo Bank, said that once the geopolitical environment stabilizes and the energy crisis begins to fade away, investors will refocus on structural themes which have supported the bull market for?gold in recent years. He said that he expects central banks to continue being net buyers in the next year. Spot silver dropped?1.7% at $73.96 an ounce. Platinum lost 0.4% to $1,908.91. Palladium fell by 0.8% to $1343.04. Morgan Stanley stated in a Friday note that palladium was moving towards equilibrium as the supply constraints were offset by a weakening of auto demand. (Reporting and editing by Shailesh Kuber and Barbara Lewis; Ashitha Shivaprasad, Bengaluru)
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US construction spending exceeds expectations in April
U.S. Construction spending in April increased more than anticipated, thanks to the single-family homebuilding boom. However, rising mortgage rates due to the war with Iran continue cast a shadow on?the housing markets. Census Bureau of the Commerce Department announced?on Monday? that construction expenditures rose 0.4% following a downwardly-revised 0.2% rise in March. Economists surveyed by predicted construction spending would gain 0.2% following a previously reported rise of 0.6% in March. In April, construction spending rose 0.9% year-over-year. Spending on private construction projects increased by 0.4% in April after increasing by 0.2% the previous month. After a 0.6% increase in March, investment?in residential construction increased by 0.8%. The spending on single-family housing projects increased by 1.4%. The U.S./Israeli war against Iran has stoked inflation, which in turn has pushed up mortgage rates. The popular '30-year fixed rate mortgage' averaged 6.53% in the last week. This is a nine-month-high, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac. The rate was 5.98% when the war began at the end February as Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae increased their purchases of mortgage-backed security. The rising mortgage rates have a negative impact on the demand for housing, and are making it difficult for builders to start new projects. Tariffs, shortages of land and workers are all contributing to higher costs for builders. The spending on multi-family units, which make up a tiny part of the housing market in April, dropped by 0.3%. In April, investment in non-residential private structures like power plants and factories dropped by 0.2%. The spending on nonresidential buildings has been declining for nine consecutive quarters despite an increase in the construction of data centres to support artificial intelligent. The investment in public construction projects grew 0.4% in April after increasing?0.2% during March. Construction spending by state and local governments increased 0.1% in April, while federal government expenditures jumped 4.8%. This is likely due to the construction of detention facilities during an immigration crackdown. Reporting by Lucia Mutiani, Editing by Andrea Ricci
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Sources say that Barrick Mining is considering a London listing while it negotiates the sale of its Africa business.
Two sources with knowledge of the matter said that Barrick Mining is evaluating a London listing for its African operations. A potential?all-share?transaction?with UK-listed Endeavour Mining was one option being considered. Sources said that discussions are in an early stage, and there has not been a decision made. They added that it is uncertain whether a deal would materialise, and no announcement was expected soon. Market capitalization could reach $30 billion for the combined entity. Barrick and Endeavour mining?didn't comment. One source said that one scenario was being considered, whereby the Canadian listed miner would keep its Toronto listing and become a holding entity which would own shares in Barrick North America in New York, as well as a separate Africa focused entity listed in London. Another source familiar with Barrick's business operations said that if the move goes through, it would be similar to what Barrick did in 2000 when it spun off and listed its Africa division as Acacia, before later reacquiring Acacia. Barrick Mining announced earlier this year that it would'spin off' its North American operations with the primary listing to be in New York. Mark Hill, CEO of Barrick Mining, said that the company would also look to sell mines in Africa and places like Papua New Guinea where Barrick has no majority control but does have management control. Barrick's Chairman John Thornton Hill is seeking to move Barrick away from risky areas, as investors are looking for?stronger return. The move comes after the company settled a dispute that lasted a whole year with Mali’s military-led Government, which led to the ouster its former CEO Mark Bristow. Endeavour is a London-listed company, which has billionaire Naguib Samiri backing. Endeavour has been searching for mining assets in order to expand the business. One banker working in mining M&A said that Endeavour's "presence" in Africa made it a good strategic fit for Barrick to sell its "rump". One banker in the mining M&A space said that combining Barrick's African assets with Endeavour could provide Endeavour with exposure to new areas such as Tanzania and Democratic Republic of Congo. It could also bring back exposure to Mali where Endeavour had previously left and might be reluctant to return. After a period of operational challenges and governance issues, Endeavour has stabilized and is at a point where it can consider a bigger deal, according to the source. Source: A merger between Barrick's African assets and Endeavour, a company with a market capitalization of $15 billion, could look like a merger on equal terms, possibly at little or no premium.
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The buffer of savings for US consumers is gone. What now? Mceever
While corporate America continues to benefit from the AI boom in the United States, a large part of the population is struggling to keep up with the pace, and their savings are plummeting. This growing chasm may have grave political implications for President Donald Trump. Egal how you define the issue of inequality - K shape economy, two speed economy, haves-and-have-nots, it's getting worse. Last week, two data points brought this into stark focus: personal savings (and corporate profits). In April, the?personal saving rate dropped to a 4-year low of 2,6%. It has halved over the last year, and is now at its lowest level since 2008. Zoom in and you can see how thin the cushion of savings is for American consumers. The savings rate of consumers has never been so low since 1950s records started. Inflation, boosted by energy prices that are still high, is now surpassing wage growth for the very first time in the last three years. Americans' rapid depletion of savings in order to maintain their spending cannot last. Some closely watched measures of confidence in consumers have also fallen to their lowest ever levels. It's therefore reasonable to expect that household consumption, the largest and most important pillar in the economy, could be under pressure soon. Wall Street doesn't seem to be asking too many questions at the moment, as U.S. stocks continue to reach record highs. It's not surprising, given the state of corporate America. Last week, figures showed that U.S. profits for corporations as a percentage of total output rose to 18.4% in the first quarter. This is the second highest reading since records started in the 1940s. The pre-tax profit as a percentage of GDP also remained near the record high 14%. Even as Americans' financial situation becomes more precarious, corporate profits have never been higher. Phil Suttle, an economist, says that he does not believe these trends to be economically or politically sustainable. How they are resolved is an unresolved issue, but in my opinion, both profits and consumption carry a significant downside risk. MAKE UP THE PAIN It makes perfect sense. Who is spending the most? The estimates of Moody's analyst that the top decile income accounts for 50% all consumer spending have been disputed. A more accurate estimate could be between 35-40%. It's still a substantial amount. The top 10% of Americans own 90% of U.S. stock, and the top 1% represent half of all the wealth in the U.S. stock market. U.S. equity prices have risen 30% for these asset owners in the last 12 months. The asset-owning wealthy can continue to support aggregate expenditure as long as the stock prices remain high. This will keep headline GDP near a healthy 2 percent rate. This masks the increasing strain on the "bottom half" of the U.S. populace, who are being squeezed out by rising borrowing costs, inflation and shrinking savings. Look at the increasing struggles of consumers to pay off their debts. Troy Ludtka, SMBC Nikko Securities Americas, notes that auto loan delinquencies 90 days and more reached a record high of 5.6% in the first quarter, while credit card delinquencies increased to 13.1% - their highest level since 2011. The interesting question is when does the K's lower end break the economy as a whole? What is the 'limit to this inequality?' Ludtka makes a point. Unsustainable Path Limits may not be as much a matter of economics but rather a matter of politics. Trump's ratings for his economy have plummeted since he launched military strikes against Iran three months back, in part due to the rising pressures of prices. Polls indicate that the Republicans are likely to lose the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate in the upcoming midterm elections. Many voters have cited the "cost of life" as their primary concern. The AI-driven capex boom and the rapid growth of corporate profits may increase these political pressures even if the economic situation continues to be relatively stable. The ultimate question is: How long can Americans continue to spend and stay afloat, now that their savings buffers have been rapidly 'disappearing'? How extreme will the U.S. public allow this "K"-shaped dynamic to get before they 'push back with policy demands'? Trump's Republican Party could find out this in November. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Gold falls as inflation fears rise over Middle East conflict
Gold prices fell on Monday as fresh strikes between Iran and the United States raised inflation concerns. Gold spot was down 0.7% to $4,502.89 an ounce at 08:40 am EDT (1240 GMT), after reaching a two-week peak on Friday. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 1.3% to $4.533.20. Jim Wyckoff is a market analyst for American Gold Exchange. He said that if bond yields continue to rise and rates begin to stabilize or trend downward, gold will be under pressure. As diplomatic efforts to bring an end to three months of war drag on, Iran and the United States accuse each other of aggressive behavior. Oil prices rose on Monday as inflation fears arose from the conflict in Iran. This could lead central banks to increase interest rates to combat rising price pressures. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders see a roughly 51% chance that at least one U.S. interest rate increase will occur by the end of the year. Gold is often considered an inflation hedge but its appeal tends to fade when interest rates are high because it doesn't generate any yield. The market participants will be focusing on a series U.S. job data releases that are due to come out this week. Fed Governor Jerome Powell warned on Sunday about the dangers of a politicized Fed. Powell's tenure as Fed chair officially ended on 15 May. Kevin Warsh was sworn in on May 22, as the new Fed chairman. Powell has decided to remain a Fed Governor in part due to what he sees as the ongoing threats to the Fed's independence. Spot silver increased?0.5% at $75.61 an ounce. Platinum gained 1.5% to $1,944.70. Palladium dropped 0.1% to 1,352.75. Morgan Stanley stated in a Friday note that "Palladium has reached equilibrium as the supply constraints have been offset by a weakening of auto demand."
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Official: India could revisit its Scotch Whisky tariff reductions if UK steel curbs
An Indian official stated that New Delhi could reconsider the tariff concessions it made to Britain on Scotch Whisky, if London does not address New Delhi's concerns about its steel safety measures. The India-UK Free Trade Agreement, signed last May and expected to come into effect this year, has hit a snag after Britain proposed tighter safeguards for steel imports in order to protect the?domestic?industry. An Indian trade official told journalists on Monday that the ball was now in their court (UK). If they do not leverage their Free Trade Agreement, we can always revisit the concessions that we offered. On Tuesday, Britain's Trade secretary Peter Kyle will be in India to meet with Commerce Minister Piyush Ghoyal. India has agreed to reduce tariffs on Scotch Whisky by 150% initially, and then to 75% over 10 years. Both sides will reduce tariffs on a wide range of products, including textiles, whisky, and cars. This deal will also expand market access for companies in the fifth and sixth largest economies around the world. By 2040, the two countries anticipate that the agreement will boost bilateral trade by 25.5 billion pounds (34 billion dollars). India is concerned that Britain's steel safety measures could limit Indian exports. The dispute centers on higher 'duties' on certain shipments of steel and tariff-free quotas. This is creating new uncertainty for Indian exporters, even as both sides are working to implement the trade agreement. India, Brazil, Turkey and other countries, including Japan, South Korea, Switzerland, Australia, have raised concerns at the World Trade Organization about Britain's new restrictions regarding tariff-free imports of steel. As part of its efforts towards reducing carbon emissions, Britain has proposed to impose carbon-related border measures starting January 1, 2027. These would cover?imports such as iron,?steel and aluminium, as well as cement, fertilisers and fertilizers.
Sources say Holcim will get EU approval for the 1.85 billion Euro Xella acquisition, after offering to sell Romanian assets.
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The agreement, announced last October, will allow Holcim to diversify into the 'growing European refurbishment market, worth approximately 250 billion euros per year.
Holcim made an offer last month to sell certain assets to the European Commission.
As part of the European Commission’s review of Holcim’s acquisition of Xella in Romania,?Holcim has offered to sell its standalone Adjud autoclaved aerated concrete business (AAC) in?Romania pending the regulator’s test of market," the statement said.
Prior to this, the imminent EU approval as well as the proposed sale of Romanian business had not been reported.
Zug, Switzerland-headquartered Holcim ?is betting on its building products business, which offers higher growth and profitability than its traditional cement ?and aggregates business, driven by demand for roofing, insulation ?and prefabricated systems.
The?Xella agreement highlighted its focus on higher-priced sustainable products in order to boost its margins.
The?Commission declined to comment on the Holcim offer. It is the EU?competition enforcer, and it has sought feedback from competitors and customers.
The EU's?competition enforcer will decide by June 12 on the agreement. The exchange rate is $1 = 0.8612 euro (reporting by Foo Yon Chee; additional reporting by Oliver Hirt, Zurich; editing by Susan Fenton).
(source: Reuters)