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US stocks rise ahead of Fed decision and tech earnings
U.S. stock prices rebounded on Tuesday from their earlier lows ahead of the release of important corporate earnings and the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated interest rate decision on Wednesday. Investors dumped chipmakers over concerns about Chinese competition, and funding for the AI boom. Gains in other sectors have offset the decline in chips stocks during the U.S. session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.29%, to 52881.21, while the S&P 500 gained 0.37% at 7,440.40. The Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.04% at 24,940.99. The Asian chipmakers are at the core of the earlier selloff on Tuesday. South Korea's KOSPI plunged more than 10%, hitting a three-month high. This triggered a circuit breaker on its way down, as it headed?for the largest monthly drop on record. It surpasses the declines that were suffered during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. The index has more than tripled its value in the past 12 months, but it's lost more than a quarter of that value since then. The MSCI All Country World Price Index fell by 0.26%, to 1105. It had previously dropped to 1098. Investors have been concerned about circular funding and stretched valuations in the AI sector after a strong rally in this year. The latest decline followed a report that China was manufacturing its own immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV), lithography machines. Meanwhile, the strong debut of Chinese chipmaker CXMT on the stock market on Monday fueled concerns about increased competition in memory chip industry. Dorian Carrell is the head of Schroders' multi-asset income. He said that there are concerns about the costs and the amount of leverage required. He added: "We're now seeing questions about the profitability of semiconductors, especially in Asia." The earnings this week of "Magnificent 7" members Microsoft.com, Amazon.com Meta, and Apple, which are also companies that spend the most on AI will be seen by many as a test for the market rally. This is especially true after Alphabet, Tesla, and other tech giants spooked investors with their negative cash flow reports last week. OIL SLIDES, U.S. Rate MOVE EYED The continued decline in oil prices, Treasury yields and other financial indicators helped calm nerves before the Fed's rate announcement on Wednesday. The surge in oil prices, fueled by renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran, has raised expectations that a rate?hike could be imminent as policymakers struggle to combat inflation, which remains stubbornly higher than the Fed's 2% target. Oscar Munoz is the head of U.S. Economics at TD Securities. He wrote in a report that "Higher oil costs due to Middle East tensions have increased inflation risk and?strengthened case for a rate increase, but more evidence will be needed before a majority supports it." The price of oil has dropped this week, following the abrupt suspension by Washington on Saturday of its airstrikes against Iran. Oman presented Iran with a Gulf-backed plan to manage the Strait of Hormuz and collect voluntary fees, according to a Gulf source on Tuesday. Fed funds futures now price in a 32% probability of a rate hike on Wednesday. This is down from Monday's 38%. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 4.09 basis points from?4.641% at the end of Monday. The euro rose 0.23% against the dollar to $1.1393. The Japanese yen fell 0.02%, to 163.75 dollars, just above the four-decade low. Markets are on edge, fearing that Japan will intervene in the currency pair, especially if the Bank of Japan holds rates this week, and triggers another yen decline.
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South Africa tribunal approves Equinix data centres despite activist objections
Cape Town's municipal authorities have approved the proposal of?Equinix to build two data centres within the city despite protests by environmental groups and activists over water use, electricity consumption, and other aspects. The U.S. listed company's planned development of the King Air Industria region is a significant step forward, especially as the demand for data centre infrastructure in Africa continues to rise. The proposed data centres are expected to need around 170 megawatts in power, making it one of the biggest projects being planned for South Africa. Teraco is Africa's biggest data-centre provider. It has stated that it has 189 MW critical power capacity on its campuses. The South African Housing Assembly, a grassroots movement, and the UK-based technology advocacy organization Foxglove were represented by Legal Resources Centre during the?tribunal proceedings. The groups claimed that there was insufficient information provided about the environmental footprint of the project and its resource requirements. "We've seen this playbook used by U.S. Big Tech companies time and time again: show up in a neighborhood, tell the residents as little as you can about the damage the data center will cause and then leave them to pick up all the pieces," said Rosa Curling, Foxglove's co-executive Director. The groups claimed they were evaluating a possible appeal. A spokesperson for Equinix confirmed that the company has purchased land in Cape Town, but it had not submitted a?site?development plan. A site development plan is a part of South Africa's planning system. It outlines how a project approved will be set up and operated. The spokesperson stated that "should we decide to move forward with any developments, we are committed to being transparent and will provide all stakeholders with detailed information in a timely manner." We understand the unique role we play in the communities where we operate and we work with local utilities, leaders of government and other stakeholders early on in the planning process to understand local priorities, listen and inform our decisions. Mark Potter edited the article.
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Wildfires threaten Bordeaux's wine industry
Wildfires burning outside Bordeaux highlight the climate challenges that France's biggest wine region is facing. Producers are struggling with severe drought, increasing temperatures, and a?falling in wine consumption. Although growers claim that the fires are not a threat to Bordeaux’s famous vineyards, the repeated heatwaves and nearly two months of dry weather have caused vines to be stressed and resulted in one of the earliest vintages ever. Thomas Duroux said that the vineyards in Margaux, one Bordeaux's most prestigious regions, are still intact, and the wine quality will not be affected by the fires. He said that warning signs were everywhere. The scorching heat of France has exacerbated drought conditions and caused water shortages, as well as tinder-dry vegetation, which is fueling wildfires across the country and threatening crops. Wake-up Call The first to suffer were young vines whose roots had not yet reached enough moisture underground. "What we're experiencing this year should be a wake-up. We're facing a situation we've never seen before. Duroux said that we must not only limit the damage, but also consider the future. He added, "Our priority today is water resources - because without it?we won't be able to?plant vines under these conditions -- and adapting the vineyard so that it becomes more resistant to these climatic circumstances." This year, some local wine authorities sought exemptions to allow irrigation to produce vines. This was a remarkable step in a place where watering had been restricted to young and delicate vines. Duroux noted that many chateaux don't have enough water for their entire vineyard. He said that climate change has brought benefits to date, such as riper grapes and richer wines, and in hot years like 2020, 2022, and 2025, exceptional qualities. Growers say that without rain, vines may'shut themselves down to protect themselves and cause grapes to shrivel. This would result in a reduction of yields as well as?quality and push harvest dates to the earliest ever recorded. Climate change isn't the only industry challenge. Many French wine producers have been struggling with low prices for many years due to falling consumption, weaker export demand, and an oversupply. Some are forced to sell their wines at a loss. The crisis led to a?vine-pull program under which producers were paid to uproot vines in order to reduce production and rebalance market. Even the most prestigious wines are not immune to this?downturn. According to the Liv-ex Bordeaux 500 Index, the Bordeaux fine wine market lost nearly a fifth of its worth over the last?five years. The once-booming market for en primeur, where buyers buy wines as they age in barrels, has also slowed down, leading to several chateaux reducing prices. (Reporting by Sybille de La Hamaide. Gabriel Stargardter contributed additional reporting. Mark Potter (Editor)
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Mexico pays Vulcan Materials less that 1% of the arbitration claim
Mexico's government has said that it will compensate Vulcan Materials with less than 1% of the $1.7 Billion compensation sought by the U.S. quarrying firm in an international arbitration over the?closure?of their Mexican mining operations. Vulcan, through its Mexican subsidiary Calizas Industriales del Carmen launched arbitration in 2018 under North American Free Trade Agreement, after authorities closed down its limestone?extraction operation in Quintana Roo. Mexico's Economy Minister?said Monday that the arbitration tribunal rejected almost all?Vulcan?s claims. It upheld only one claim, which was related to the closure of a single site in January 2018. Sources in the government have said that the amount sought by the U.S. firm would total around $15 million. Vulcan reported on Monday that the tribunal had found Mexico to have violated NAFTA several times, but did not disclose the financial compensation. Vulcan claims that Mexico's "arbitrary" closure of its extraction operations stemmed from Mexico refusing to honor an agreement intended?to release part of its aggregate reserves? Andres Manuel Obrador was the former Mexican president who accused Vulcan of damaging the environment by removing 'limestone' below water tables for decades. Vulcan claimed that the Mexican government had illegally taken over its assets. * The land affected was declared an Environmental Protection Zone.
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Gold drops as dollar hovers around one-month high; Fed meeting in focus
The dollar remained firm, hovering?near? a month-high, and investors were waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement this week, as well as comments from Chairman Kevin Warsh, to get a sense of policy direction. Spot gold dropped 0.7% per ounce to $4.045.29 by 11:55 am EDT (1555 GMT) while U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 0.8% to $4.045.20. The U.S. Dollar steadied on Tuesday?near an all-time high, making bullion priced in greenbacks expensive for overseas buyers. David Meger is director of metals at High Ridge Futures. He said that "elevated energy prices are a concern to Fed members as they have an inflationary outlook. The expected hawkish stance by the Fed also has pushed interest rate expectations and the U.S. Dollar higher, putting pressure on the gold price." Bullion is down about 24% from the time that the U.S. and Israel war against Iran began in late February. This has been a result of expectations that inflation due to war could cause interest rates to rise for longer. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation. However, when rates rise, it can have a negative impact on the metal. Investors are now awaiting the Fed's decision on interest rates and Chairman Warsh's remarks on Wednesday. Investors expect a 71% probability that policymakers will hold interest rates at their current level on Wednesday. They also anticipate a 74% likelihood of a rate increase during the central bank meeting in September. The U.S. The U.S. Commerzbank has lowered its gold price forecast for the year to end by $300 per ounce. They added that without a change in interest rate expectations a return of gold ETFs and a recovery of gold prices are unlikely. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that Washington and Iran were having "good discussions" on the geopolitical level. He also stated that there was a chance for a resolution. He said that if the negotiations fail, U.S. airstrikes would resume. Iran also made similar remarks about retaliation. Silver spot fell by 1.8%, to 57.36 cents per ounce. Platinum eased 0.1%, to $1.619.25. Palladium dropped 1.6%, to $1.271.05. (Reporting from Noel John, Bengaluru. Editing by Leroy Leo.)
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France prepares for fourth major heatwave, as crews battle Bordeaux fire
The fourth heatwave in France this year is expected to hit on Tuesday. High temperatures and dry conditions in the southwest of France will put pressure on firefighters battling the massive wildfires that are raging across the Bordeaux region. According to Climate Monitor, temperatures in Bordeaux will reach 33 degrees Celsius during the day. This is 7 degrees higher than the average between 1961 and 1990. "The situation that we are facing today is the worst we've ever seen, the most difficult since the Second World War," said President Emmanuel Macron on Monday night, after flying to the region. Nathalie Deattre, senator for Gironde (which includes the city of Bordeaux), said that fire crews contained the flames overnight but that the situation was still difficult. She told BFM Television on Tuesday that "everything depends on how well the firefighters perform on the ground." France is experiencing a wildfire season unlike any other. The fires have already surpassed 2022's previous record year. The Landes region, southwest of Bordeaux is covered with pine forests that are highly flammable if they become dry. So far, the fire has destroyed 42,000 hectares. About 220,000 people have been evacuated, including tourists and local residents. The situation in Biscarrosse has improved. About 15,000 people who were evacuated last week are now allowed to return home. "However, the (positive) development does NOT mean that the risk has been eliminated. Flare-ups are still possible, especially due to weather conditions. ")," the report said. Meteo France, the weather service, said that temperatures would increase from the afternoon onwards and reach a maximum of 37 degrees Celsius by Wednesday. In a recent post on X, the social media platform, Interior Minister Laurent Nunez revealed that French authorities had jailed a man in connection with the wildfires still burning in the Var region. Nunez stated that 184 individuals have been arrested since the start of the wildfires season. (Reporting by Yves Herman; Additional reporting by Charlotte van Campenhout, Editing by Andrew Heavens; Reporting by Manuel Ausloos; Inti Landauro; Sarah Meysonnier)
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The chip market is on a downward spiral as world stocks fall to a one-month low
The world stock market fell to its lowest level in a month on Tuesday as investors dumped chips across the globe on fears of Chinese competition and funding for the AI boom. A possible U.S. interest rate hike this week also dampened the mood. The Nasdaq Composite, which is a tech-heavy stock, fell 1.37% Tuesday, and chipmakers were also impacted. Micron MU.O dropped 11.7%, Nvidia NVDA.O dropped 1.7%, and Intel INTC.O lost 8.5%. Asian chipmakers were the main culprits of the sell-off on Tuesday. South Korea's KOSPI plunged more than 10%, reaching a three month low. It triggered a circuit breaker on its way down, and is now on track to record the largest monthly drop in history, surpassing the declines experienced during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. The index had more than tripled its value in the 12 months leading up to June. However, it has lost more than one-third of that value since then. Shares of memory chipmakers SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics have fallen more than 12% in a market dominated by leverage. Their stratospheric rise has slowed down. The MSCI All-Country?World Price Index fell by 0.76%, to its lowest level since June 26. Investors have been concerned about circular funding and stretched valuations in the AI sector after a strong rally in this year. After a report stating that China was manufacturing its own immersion deep ultraviolet lithography machines (DUV), the latest sell-off followed. Meanwhile, Chinese chipmaker CXMT made a strong debut on Monday. This fueled concerns over increased competition in memory chip industry. You've seen companies pay for AI and hyperscalers not participate because they are worried about the cost or the level of leverage required. We're now seeing concerns about the profitability of semiconductors, especially in Asia," Dorian Carrell said, Schroders' head of multi-asset investment income. The AI story is still evolving, but this kind of growth rate (profits) is rarely sustained. We believe that the market is healthy in questioning these issues. Even though some positive earnings reports were released by companies such as Unilever and Mercedes-Benz helped European stocks to outperform, they still did not help the stock market. The earnings this week of "Magnificent 7" members Microsoft.com, Amazon.com Meta, and Apple, which are also companies that spend the most on AI will be seen by many as a test for the market rally. This is especially true after Alphabet, Tesla, and other tech giants spooked the investors with their negative cash flow reports last week. US RATE INCREASE, OIL SLIPS, EYED Brent crude?futures extended Monday's nearly 9 %?fall, falling 1.87% at $86.71 per barrel as a lull between hostilities and the U.S. followed Washington's sudden suspension of air attacks on Saturday. Donald Trump stated on Monday that the United States is having "good discussions" with Iran, and there's a good chance for a deal. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 2.87 basis points from 4.641% on Monday. The markets have estimated that there is a 32% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by 25 basis points this Wednesday. Oscar Munoz is the head of U.S. Economics at TD Securities. He wrote in a recent note that "Higher oil costs due to Middle East tensions increased inflation risk and strengthened the case for a rate increase. However, we believe more evidence is needed to gain majority support." The euro gained 0.05% against the dollar to $1.1373. The Japanese yen fell 0.05%, to 163.83 dollars, barely above its four-decade-low. Markets are on edge, fearing that Japan will intervene in the currency pair, especially if it holds rates this week, and triggers another yen decline.
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Sources say that OPEC+ is likely to halt oil production increases after September.
On August 2, seven members of OPEC+ will meet. Sources say that the group will increase its output quotas for September by 188,000 bpd. Source: OPEC+ requires the result of the oil capacity review to decide on 2027 quotas By Alex Lawler and Ahmad Ghaddar LONDON, 28 July - OPEC+ will likely pause its 'gradual oil production hikes' after September, for?the rest of the year, according to four sources, because it needs to hold additional discussions before deciding on its output quotas in 2027. The pause will mark the end of several month of production hikes that were mostly on paper because the Iran War forced Middle East countries to reduce exports. Some members of the alliance are pushing for higher targets, while others like the International Energy Agency predict that supply could exceed demand. GROUP'S PRINCIPALS MEMBERS MEET?ON AUGUUST 2 Sources from OPEC+ told us last week that the core members of the group -- Saudi Arabian, Russia, Iraqi, Kuwait, Algerian, Kazakhstan, and Oman -- are likely to increase their output target for September by 188,000 barrels a day at a meeting on August 2, which is similar to what they did in June, July, and August. The September increase 'would complete a phasing back of a 1,65 million bpd cut in supply originally agreed upon in 2023 when OPEC still included United Arab emirates. One of the sources stated that there would be no further changes until the end of the year. The current production levels will remain unchanged until January 2027, when the new quotas are implemented. Sources spoke anonymously and stated that no final decision has been made. Neither OPEC nor Russian authorities responded immediately to requests for comments. INTERNATIONAL AND EXTERNAL FIELDS AT PLAY OPEC+’s?output strategy for 2027 is likely to be influenced both by external and internal factors. The group still has a layer of cuts to be implemented until the end?2026. This is a 2 million bpd cut that dates back to 2022 and applies for most members. OPEC+ is also completing a'review' of member oil production capacities to be used as a baseline for 2027, from which quotas will be set. The group must wait until the results of this review are released before deciding on the next steps. Iraq and other members of the group are also pushing for increased individual quotas in order to reflect their higher production capacity. The IEA's outlook for the oil market in 2027 is also important. It expects a surplus, depending on whether or not the Strait of?Hormuz will be reopened. OPEC+ is a group of 21 countries that includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and allies. Only seven countries have participated in the monthly management of production. The UAE was excluded until it left. Reporting by Alex Lawler and Ahmad Ghaddar; editing by Kirby Donovan and Jan Harvey
The 400 million ASML "printers" key to the AI chip boom
ASML is Europe's most valuable firm thanks to its dominance of lithography systems. These are?huge?chip printing? machines that cost up to $400 million and are essential to companies driving the?AI boom.
Chipmakers have expanded their capacity quickly due to AI advances and the global expansion of data centers. ASML supplies memory chip makers such as SK Hynix and Micron, as well to TSMC which manufactures chips for Nvidia. In the middle of the product range, the company faces new competitors from China. It is also being pressured by the United States regarding exports of certain tools to?Asian nations. The Dutch company's success is due to the innovative technology it uses.
How to tell apart your DUV, EUV and High NA
ASML is a leading manufacturer of deep ultraviolet (DUV), extreme ultraviolet (EUV), and lithography machines. These machines are named after the wavelengths of light that they use to zap the microcircuitry of chips on silicon wafers.
ASML's market share in the DUV segment, where tools that cost around $60 million each are made to produce chips for industrial and consumer electronics, is above 80%. This puts it ahead of its Japanese rivals Nikon and Canon.
It is the only company in the world that has the monopoly on the EUV technology. However, rivals from China and the United States are trying to create alternatives. Standard EUV tools cost about $200 million, and are used in the production of AI chips and cutting-edge memory.
ASML is testing its newest "High NA", EUV tools. These will be used in new generations of AI chip with smaller features over the next five years. So far, only a few have been produced. Each one is estimated to cost between $350 million and $400 million.
The technology: HUGE MACHINES WORKING ON NANOSCALE
The standard EUV machine for Nvidia chip production is about the size and weight of a school bus. It uses a complex system that includes lasers, magnets and mirrors to create microscopic circuitry on silicon wafers.
The AI chips are mapped out by shining light patterns onto silicon wafers. Each wafer contains about 100 AI chips.
The EUV wavelength measures 13.5 nanometers. A human hair is between 80,000 and 100,000 micrometers thick.
LENSES AND MIRRORS
The German industrial company Trumpf uses some of the most powerful lasers to blast tin droplets at a rate 50,000 times per sec. The light is guided into the heart by a system of mirrors manufactured by German optical systems maker Zeiss. These mirrors have surfaces that are smoother than those found in space telescopes. They are also kept in vacuum.
Magnetically levitated stage move wafers faster than 3 meters/second, with acceleration and deceleration forces more than 15x that of gravity.
How are ASML's huge machines delivered?
The EUV machines, which are assembled in Holland, are then packaged into 40 containers and transported by cargo planes to the customer's chip fabrication plant. ASML expects to sell 65 systems this year, and 85 by 2027.
(source: Reuters)