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Thousands of first-responders are searching for Texas survivors despite the odds
On Thursday, thousands of first responders continued to comb through piles covered in mud and debris, searching for survivors, despite the odds, six days after flash flooding swept across the region, killing 120. Twelve states have sent search teams to Kerr County where most of the victims died when torrential rainfalls sent a wall raging water down the Guadalupe River at dawn on July 4. Officials said that at least 96 people including 36 children died in Kerr County. They made the announcement during a press conference on Thursday morning. A further 161 people are still missing. According to authorities, the last person alive found was Friday. Camp Mystic is a Christian all-girls summer retreat located on the banks the river. Officials said that five girls and one camp counselor remain missing. Kerr County is located in the middle of "flash-flood alley" - a region of central Texas that has experienced some of the deadliest flooding. In less than an hour, more than a foot fell early on the 4th of July. The river rose in height from a few inches to over 34 feet (10.40 meters) within a few hours. It washed away trees and other structures as it swept its way. On Wednesday, hundreds of Kerrville residents gathered for a prayer service at Tivy high school to remember the victims. The memorial held at the football stadium of the school saw students and adults praying and singing, some holding back tears and hugging each other. Reece Zunker and Paula Zunker were both former teachers at the school. According to the school district, their two children are still missing. Marti Garcia, an art teacher who was present at the event on Wednesday, said: "Zunker is a tough guy." "I had complete faith in his ability to overcome the challenge." Kerr County authorities have been questioned about what more they could have done to warn residents of the rising floodwaters in the early morning hours of July 4, and to get some to higher ground. After failing to obtain state funding to cover the costs, the county refused to install an early warning system. Officials have promised to examine the events in order to determine where they went wrong. However, their focus at this time is on rescue and recovery. In a special session, the state legislature will meet later this month in order to investigate and provide funding for disaster relief. New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham informed reporters Thursday that, after discussions with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Nuem, federal officials had committed $15 million to disaster relief in the mountain village Ruidoso where, on Tuesday, flash flooding killed three people including two children and damaged hundreds homes. Lujan Grisham stated that 12 million dollars of the federal disaster funds were money that was previously promised, but never paid to build levees in order to protect the community against flash floods following wildfires. Reporting by Jane Ross, Additional reporting by Jonathan Allen and Rich McKay; Writing by Joseph Ax. Editing by Chizu nomiyama.
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Analysts warn about the impact of Trump tariffs on shares of Brazil's Embraer
The shares of Brazilian planemaker Embraer plunged sharply Thursday after U.S. president Donald Trump announced he would impose 50% tariffs on all imports coming from South America. Analysts have warned that the third largest aircraft manufacturer in the world, with a large market for its executive jets and regional planes in the U.S., will be among the most affected firms by the tariffs. Embraer shares traded in Sao Paulo fell as much as 8 percent on the news before reversing their losses and trading down only 5%. Embraer led the decline in Brazil's Bovespa index which fell 0.7%. SkyWest recently ordered 60 E175 Embraer jets. The demand for business jets has been high in Brazil, where Embraer has assembly lines. Analysts at Itau BBA said that 60% of Embraer’s revenues are derived from North America. Of this, three quarters of them could be affected by tariffs. The analysts estimated that Embraer could lose $150 million in earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) between August and December. Brazil's top imports to the United States are aircraft, oil, steel, coffee, and orange juice. Analysts at XP said that "although we see Trump's statement primarily as a negotiation tool, we expect investors to remain concerned given the potential impact a 50% tariff on Brazilian products would have for Embraer." They noted that although Embraer's jets are assembled in Florida, some of their content comes from Brazil. XP said that the tariffs may also affect demand for E1 aircraft in an inflationary climate. Embraer shares have risen more than 30% year-to date, after a 150% increase last year. The shares reached a new record earlier this month due to robust demand for Embraer's aircraft. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao; Gabriel Araujo)
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Mali military helicopter transports gold from Barrick's Loulo Gounkoto
Three sources confirmed that on Thursday a Malian military helicopter transported gold from Barrick's Loulo-Gounkoto mining complex. This comes days after reports claimed that a court-appointed administrator intended to sell the bullion at the site to fund operations. Last month, a Bamako Court appointed a temporary administrator to resume operations at the largest gold mine in the West African nation. This comes nearly six months after Barrick Mining had suspended the site's operations amid tensions over the implementation of the new mining code. Barrick has said that it had to suspend its operations at the beginning of January after Mali’s military-led Government blocked its exports and detained its executives for two months. They also seized three tonnes of bullion. The World Bank was also contacted to help resolve the dispute. A brown and green helicopter landed on the tree-lined runway of the mine site Thursday morning. The mine's security team escorted its passengers to the plant where the gold is stored, according to the first source. Five hours later, the helicopter took off with the bullion aboard. The first source reported that one ton of gold, worth approximately $107 million, had been in the storeroom of the site since January. Three tons of gold were taken out and stored in a vault by a Malian Judge. Second source: The entire tonnage was taken Thursday. First and third sources, as well as a fourth source, said that the provisional administrator and former health minister Soumana Maadji plans to fund the mine operations by selling the gold. Three sources have said that the gold airlifted will be sold to this end. While drilling and other extraction activities have yet to begin, operations at the plant, which processes ore into gold, resumed on Monday, according to the third, fourth and another source. According to estimates, it takes between 11 and thirteen days to produce the first gold bars after the plant restarts. Barrick's and Mali's Mines Ministry spokespeople did not respond immediately to requests for comments. Makadji was not available for comment. Barrick and Mali’s government are in talks since 2023 about the implementation of a mining code which increases taxes and gives the Mali government a larger share of the gold mines. Reporting by Portia Crowe in Dakar, and Divya Raagagopal in Toronto. Mark Potter edited the story.
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As investors digest Trump's latest trade tariffs, stocks edge higher and the Brazilian real rises.
Investors weighed the latest trade announcements by U.S. president Donald Trump on Thursday. The Brazilian real recovered from its losses after Trump announced a 50% tariff for goods coming from Brazil. Trump confirmed late Wednesday that a 50% copper tariff will be implemented, with effect from August 1. The last time U.S. Copper prices rose on the day was late Wednesday. On Wednesday, the Brazilian real's volatility gauges reached their highest level since late April and the real fell as much as 2,3%. The dollar fell by 0.4% last Thursday against the real while Brazilian stocks dropped about 0.7%. Brazilian President Luiz inacio Lula da silva vowed to retaliate against unilateral tariff increases and called for a ministerial meeting on Thursday. The market's reaction to Trump's recent moves has been milder than it was in April. This could be because investors are hoping that the ongoing trade negotiations between Washington, D.C. and its trading partners will result in an agreement before the deadline. Investors are also preparing for the second-quarter earnings and looking for any signs of impact from Trump's Trade War launched on April 2. Bruce Zaro of Granite Wealth Management, Plymouth, Massachusetts said that the market appeared to be in a hold pattern before the S&P 500 company reports. JPMorgan Chase will release its results on Tuesday, which is essentially the start of the reporting period. He said that there was a lot of skepticism among the analysts who follow the S&P 500. They've all been reducing their estimations based on tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding that. "But, we believe, after all, that those tech companies and growth companies will come up with fantastic earnings." I believe the market is still in a period of waiting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 203.80 or 0.46% to 44,664.09; the S&P 500 gained 6.51 or 0.11% to 6,270.16; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 50.94 or 0.25% to 20,560.39. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 0.64 points or 0.07% to 924.94. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index rose 0.5%. Investors digested the upbeat quarterly results of TSMC, which showed strong interest in artificial-intelligence applications, fuelled by the demand for products from the world's largest chipmaker. TSMC released its report a day after Nvidia, the AI chip giant, became the first publicly traded company in history to reach $4 trillion market value. However, it closed at that level. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. Dollar against a basket currencies including the yen, euro and others) rose by 0.4% to reach 97.77. Bitcoin gained 0.46%, reaching $111,289.21. The yields on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds increased after U.S. figures showed that unemployment claims in the United States unexpectedly dropped last week. This was before the U.S. Treasury Department planned to sell $22 Billion of 30-year Treasury bonds. The yield on U.S. benchmark 10-year notes last rose 1.4 basis points for the day to 4.356%. U.S. crude dropped 1.86%, to $67.11 per barrel. Brent was down to $69.09 a barrel, a 1.55% drop on the day.
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US again stops cattle imports from Mexico due to flesh-eating screwsworms
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that the New World Screwworm, a livestock pest that eats flesh, has moved closer to the U.S.-Mexico border. Washington blocked imports of Mexican calves just days after allowing them to resume at an Arizona port of entry. Screwworms are parasitic fly larvae that lay their eggs in the wounds of warm-blooded mammals, such as livestock and wild animals. The larvae of the screwworm burrow into living flesh with their sharp teeth once they hatch. If left untreated, these larvae can kill their hosts. The USDA announced late Wednesday that Mexico reported a case of screwworm on Tuesday in Ixhuatlan de Madero in Veracruz. This is about 370 miles from the U.S. Border. The USDA ordered that all livestock trade be stopped through southern ports of entrance, effective immediately. Bill Bullard is the CEO of R-CALF USA, a group of cattle producers in the United States. He said that closing down border was not only justified but essential. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum criticized the decision as "exaggerated" and said it was motivated by one new case. Sheinbaum told her morning press conference Thursday that "it is an overreaction to a situation which is already under control." Mexico recorded 480 cases at its peak, in late June. According to the most recent data from the Agriculture Ministry this number has fallen below 400, as Mexico continues its campaign against the pest. Sheinbaum said, "We hope they will be reopening very soon." United States Concerns expressed by the Mexican government about the threat of the disease nearing its northern border. A US infestation could cause further shortages of cattle in the United States, already at their lowest level in decades. It would also threaten other livestock, including household pets. In May, the USDA suspended Mexican beef imports after screwworm was found on farms in Oaxaca or Veracruz in Mexico. The agency announced last week that imports would resume on Monday in Douglas, Arizona as part of a gradual reopening the border, because screwworms were not moving north from Mexico. Secretary Brooke Rollins stated that the USDA must see progress in fighting the pest in Veracruz, and other nearby Mexican states, before it will reopen the livestock ports along the southern border. In the 1960s, researchers introduced sterile male screwworm flies to mate with female screwworms in order to produce infertile egg. Last month, the USDA announced that it was building a sterile flies dispersal facility and considering a sterile flies production facility in Hidalgo county, Texas. Colin Woodall, CEO for the National Cattlemen's Beef Association, said that work should begin immediately on a U.S. facility to produce sterile flies. He said that the New World Screwworm's movement northwards jeopardizes American agriculture. "We can't wait any longer." In a press release, the Mexican Beef Producers Association expressed regret for the suspension of the program. Meanwhile, the Mexican government indicated that they were working to release sterile fly. Reporting by Tom Polansek, Aida Pelaez Fernandez and Mark Porter; editing by Chizu Nomiyama & Mark Porter
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Brazil's stocks fall, but real rebound after Trump's tariffs of 50%
Brazil's stock exchange fell on Thursday. However, the real recovered the next day, after U.S. president Donald Trump shocked the world by imposing 50% tariffs instead of the 10% originally indicated. Trump cited political disagreements as the reason for his shock decision. The currency volatility gauges reached their highest level since April's tariff announcements. After the real fell as much as 2,8% on Wednesday, in response to what Deutsche Bank called an escalation in tensions. The currency fell 2.3% on Wednesday, but rebounded on Thursday to be up 0.5% against the dollar. U.S. listed shares of Brazilian companies dropped, with an ETF that is widely followed in Brazil falling by nearly 2%. Itau Unibanco dropped 3.8%, Banco Santander fell 3.5%, and Petrobras, the state oil company lost 0.4%. The local benchmark fell by 0.6%. Citibank's analysis indicates that the impact of the tariffs is uncertain, but this announcement is a blow to Brazil's external accounts. Citibank said that further escalation of the tariff could lead to financial account outflows and potentially damage asset prices. Brazil's bonds are among the best performers in emerging markets, with bonds denominated in dollars returning almost 8% while local bonds returned a staggering 20%. Local stock markets have reached record highs this month, and are among the most affordable in terms of dollar value for expected earnings. The dollar-denominated Brazil Stock Index is also up by nearly 25%. This is due to the 13% real surge this year. Graham Stock, RBC BlueBay Asset Management, said Trump's reasons for the tariffs were based on his dissatisfaction with a court case involving former Brazilian right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro as well as legal actions against U.S. Social Media firms. Stock stated that "the economic implications of this are still fairly modest" as only a little over 10% of Brazil’s exports were going to the U.S. and represented just 1% of Brazil's GDP. He said that the risk was that Lula would use his defiance against U.S. intervention as a badge in the lead-up to October 2026's elections. In this case, de-escalation is less likely. Experts and traders said that the U.S. consumer will face steep price increases on staples such as coffee and orange juice, if the tariffs of 50% are implemented. Brazil is the source of a third the coffee that the U.S. consumes, making it the largest consumer of this beverage in the world. More than half the orange juice consumed in the U.S. comes from Brazil, too. Trump's decision on Wednesday followed his threat to impose a 10% additional tariff on the BRICS developing nation group - Brazil being the 'B.' - that he called "anti American."
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Antofagasta CEO: Trump's copper tariffs may help the project in the US that has been stalled.
Ivan Arriagada, CEO of Antofagasta Chilean Copper Mines, said that the Trump Administration's decision to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports has created an opportunity for the copper project which had been stalled in the United States. Antofagasta, a London-listed company, operates four copper mines and is developing Twin Metals Copper and Nickel Mine in Minnesota. However the project was halted after the previous Biden administration refused to grant permits due to environmental concerns. "We have a new project, and we see a chance to develop it in this context," Arriagada said at an event. He noted that it would be years before the final decision on investment could be taken. "We must continue to work with a longer-term perspective." He added that the miner had maintained its mid-term and longer-term contracts. There were no additional copper shipments for now to the United States. Since President Donald Trump opened an investigation into possible tariffs on imports of copper in February, U.S. firms have been stocking up on the metal. Chile is the largest copper producer in the world. Speaking alongside Arriagada in Chile, Mining Minister Aurora Williams said that the government has not received any precise information on how copper tariffs will be implemented. Reporting by Fabian Cambero; Writing by Daina-Beth Solomon; Editing and Marguerita Chy.
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Nine more suspects named in Pertamina corruption probe
The Indonesia Attorney General's Office named nine new suspects on Thursday in a corruption probe involving the state energy company PT Pertamina. Indonesia previously named several former Pertamina executives in an investigation of alleged corruption between 2018 and 2023. The state and economy suffered losses of 285 trillion Rupiah (17.58 billion dollars) as a result of the criminal activities, according to prosecutors. Abdul Qohar is a director of the AGO. He said that the nine people named by the AGO were six former executives from Pertamina or its subsidiaries, a manager who worked at Trafigura trading company, a manager for Mahameru Kencana Abadi shipping company, and a beneficiary owner at PT Orbit Terminal Merak fuel terminal. Abdul, a reporter, said that the suspects had been involved in improper imports crude oil and fuels, incorrect shipping leases, and leases for fuel terminals. Pertamina's spokesperson stated on Thursday that they respect the legal process in place and are cooperating. Trafigura didn't respond immediately to an e-mail sent to the address on their website asking for a comment. PT Mahameru couldn't be reached after office hours. PT Orbit was not accessible and could not be reached immediately. In May, Indonesian investigators approached several trading firms in Singapore to conduct an investigation. Reporting by Fransiska Naangoy, editing by Philippa Feletcher.
OPEC cuts oil demand for the next four years
OPEC cut their global oil demand projections for the next 4 years as Chinese growth slows. However, they raised their longer-term outlook due to the rising oil demands in developing countries and said that there was no proof demand had peaked.
OPEC+, a producer group that includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia pumping more to regain the market share lost after years of market support cuts. A lower medium-term demand may make it more difficult for the group's other cuts to be unwound, as they remain in place through the end of 2026.
OPEC's 2025 World Oil Outlook, published on Thursday, predicts that world demand will average 105 millions barrels of oil per day in 2019. The OPEC expects the demand to increase to an average of 106.3 million barrels per day in 2026, and then to 111.6 millions bpd by 2029.
All forecasts of demand for 2026-2029 are lower than the previous year. OPEC has said that demand will average 106.3 millions bpd by 2026. This is down from 108.3 million bpd last year. The forecast for 2029 is 700,000 bpd lower than last year.
OPEC, however, expects oil demand to peak in this decade, a decade later than other forecasters such as BP and International Energy Agency.
In the preface to the report, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais stated that "Oil is the foundation of the global economy and central to our everyday lives." There is no imminent peak in oil demand.
OPEC stated that the demand has recovered from the COVID-19 epidemic, resulting in a better-predicted outlook. OPEC also said that China's growth is slowing, a country which has been driving oil consumption higher over the past few decades.
"This is due to the slower economic growth and the increased penetration of EVs, charging infrastructure and the continued use of oil in many sectors," OPEC stated with reference China.
GAP WITH IEA
OPEC's forecast for 2030 demand remained unchanged from the previous year.
The International Energy Agency, on the other hand, expects the global demand to peak in 2029 at 105.6 millions bpd and then to fall slightly by 2030, said the advisor to industrialised nations last month.
OPEC believes that India, the Middle East, and Africa will drive the growth in the long term. OPEC says that developments such as the U.S. leaving the United Nations Climate Pact and a lower EV penetration rate will likely have spillover effects on developing countries.
OPEC predicts that the world's oil demand will reach 122.9 millions barrels per day in 2050. This is up from the 120.1 million bpd predicted in last year’s report. This is far higher than other industry forecasts for 2050, such as those of BP.
OPEC is calling for increased investment in the oil industry. The group estimates that $18.2 trillion will be needed to invest by 2050 compared to $17.4 billion estimated last year. (Editing by Barbara Lewis).
(source: Reuters)