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Investors assess new tariffs and gold falls as US bond yields increase
Gold prices fell on Tuesday as a result of higher U.S. Treasury rates, following the announcement by U.S. president Donald Trump that he would be imposing new tariffs on trade partners such as Japan and South Korea. As of 0905 GMT, spot gold fell 0.3% to $3324.19 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 0.3% to $3333.60. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes reached a two week high, which made non-yielding gold less attractive. Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS, said: "Gold is caught between a stone and a brick wall." The U.S. decision of extending the deadline for trade deals for many partners is negative for gold prices. Positive for gold prices is that U.S. key trading partners in Asia may have to face higher tariffs soon, which could weigh on economic growth prospects. Trump announced on Monday that he would be imposing tariffs of up to 40% in the next phase of his trade war, which he began in April. Trump stated that the new deadline is firm and he will consider extensions only if other countries make proposals for a deal. To allow time for negotiations, "reciprocal tariffs", which were supposed to be limited to 10%, had been set to 10% up until July 9, but so far only agreements with Britain and Vietnam have been made. Washington and Beijing reached an agreement in June on a framework for tariff rates. China warned Trump's administration to avoid re-igniting trade tensions and has threatened to retaliate by cutting the U.S. out of its supply chain if it does. Trump's tariffs are fueling inflation fears and complicating the path of the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Investors are waiting for the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting due on Wednesday to get more insight into the bank’s policy outlook. Silver spot was unchanged at 36.72 dollars per ounce. Platinum fell by 0.3% to 1,366.25 dollars, and palladium increased 0.5% to 1,116.86. (Reporting from Brijesh Patel and Anmol Chaubey in Bengaluru).
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Sources claim that India will import 10% of its cooking gases from the US by 2026.
Four industry sources with knowledge of the matter have said that India intends to import about 10% of its domestic cooking gas from the U.S. starting in 2026. This is part of an effort to increase energy purchases and narrow the trade gap between Washington and India. Middle Eastern LPG producers are the world's largest importers and consumers of liquefied gas. In 2024, more than 90% (or 20.5 million tons) of their imports will come from this region. LPG, a mixture of butane and propane used as a cooking fuel, is imported mainly by state retailers Indian Oil Corp. Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. and sold to households at a subventioned price. India rarely purchased U.S. LPG before due to the higher freight costs. However, state retailers started buying U.S. LPG after China imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. LPG imports. Sources have previously said that India intends to eliminate the import tax on U.S. butane and propane used to make LPG. India has committed to increasing U.S. energy purchase by $10 to $25 billion within the next few years. The two nations also agreed in February to aim for $500 billion of bilateral trade by 2030. Data obtained from sources revealed that India's imports of U.S. crude oil have more than doubled in the past year. We are looking at the U.S. for a reliable source of crude oil and LPG. "We need to diversify the LPG sources we use," said one source who declined to give his name because he wasn't authorized to speak with media. India is diversifying its crude suppliers to support its growing refinery capacity and reduce geopolitical risk. LPG is mainly purchased from the Middle East on a FOB basis. The 10% Chinese tariff on U.S. propane has opened arbitrage opportunities for Indian customers, further encouraging a move to U.S. cargoes. He said: "We prefer to buy U.S. crude on a delivery basis, to reduce freight risks." Two sources reported that the Indian state refiners see an annual LPG growth of 5% to 6 %, and total imports will rise to 22 to 23 million metric tonnes by 2026. The Indian oil ministry as well as the three state fuel retailers have not responded to comments immediately. A third source in the industry said that pricing will be key in determining exact volumes of U.S. LPG imported. The International Energy Agency predicts that India's LPG consumption will grow by an average 2.5% per year between 2024 and 2030. This would amount to 1.2 million barrels of LPG per day or approximately 37,7 million tonnes. (Reporting and editing by Tony Munroe, Kate Mayberry, and Nidhi verma)
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Biochar boom? South Africa invests in super charcoal to create green jobs
Sithandekile Nyathi, a confident woman, climbs into the compact loader and lowers the metal cage around the vehicle. She then drives to large mounds wood chips. The chips are then transported by conveyer belt to a converter where they're heated up and transformed into activated carbon, a form of "biochar" that can store carbon and help reduce the planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions. "I was a maid before, and I never imagined I would be working in an industry which also benefits lives and the environment," said Nyathi. She is a controller in the Brakpan plant of Adsorb, South Africa's manufacturer of activated charcoal. South Africa, a country rich in coal, has become the face of international efforts to move towards cleaner industries and energy. These efforts have been slowed by funding issues, high unemployment and political divisions. This has raised questions about the best way to make this transition. Darryl Phipps is a chemical engineering and manager of Adsorb, where Nyathi also works. He believes that the plant, located in Brakpan east of Johannesburg, may be the first plant of its kind worldwide. It is possible because the wood chips are converted into biochar or activated charcoal using the heat generated by the converter. This allows the organic molecules to adhere to the surface of the charcoal and produces only clean flue gases. Experts say that some proponents believe the biochar industry can create jobs and capture carbon, but it is struggling due to a lack in South African data. According to the International Biochar Initiative, the global industry is expected to reach US$600 millions in 2023. This represents a 97% increase from 2021. Dataviz https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/24074049/ Researchers, farmers, and industry experts have praised biochar and activated charcoal for their ability to improve soil quality, water retention, absorb toxins, and capture carbon. According to Frontiers, when used as a fertilizer, biochar increases water-holding capability, which helps plants survive in drought conditions. According to researchers at the University of Venda, initial studies in South Africa's agriculture sector showed that biochar improved maize yield as well as soil health. However, they called for more long-term, intensive research. The South African Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment did not reply to requests for comments on the size and future of the biochar industry in the country. Workers like Nyathi, however, are optimistic. She said, "If I grow with my company, then I will also grow." JOBS CREATED AND CARBON CAPTURED South Africa's high rates of unemployment, funding cuts, and the size of the coal sector have all slowed the movement towards green energy and jobs. Phipps stated that Adsorb's converter can be replicated in other parts of South Africa as well as the world. Adsorb uses wood chip from pallet repair centers that originate from responsibly managed forests. The gas produced when the wood is heated to 1000 degrees Celsius first produces biochar, and then activated carbon. According to the academic journal Science of The Total Environment, activated charcoal can be used for industrial pollution removal and has a greater adsorption capability than biochar. Adsorb wants to convert this gas into electricity. Adsorb has captured approximately 750 tons of CO2 by 2024. It supplies activated carbon to the fertiliser, animal feed, and cosmetic industries. They are also looking at water treatment, mine rehabilitation, and cleaning mercury from coal gas. Phipps said that processing centres could be set up in areas that previously had coal mines or other mining operations. This could include communities producing biomass and supplying them to these processing centers. He estimated that if enough plants were built, they could create tens or even hundreds of thousands of jobs. Needs for DATA and FUNDING Experts said that despite the enthusiasm for biochar, there are few data and the estimates of the size of the South African market vary greatly, possibly due to the different classifications used when defining biochar. Romain Pirard is an environmental economist at the School for Climate Studies of Stellenbosch University. He said that to his knowledge, there was "no centralisation or policy specific to biochar". Phipps said that finding willing customers was also a challenge in the promotion of Biochar. He said that farmers are very cost-sensitive. If anything increases costs, this will damage the potential sales. Pirard stated that subsidies could be used to encourage farmers to "use biochar instead of chemical fertilizers" and use invasive, alien tree biomass as a way of helping biochar "take-off". Pirard stated that despite the fact that biochar has the potential to create green jobs, efforts to establish a biochar organization to centralise information and data on initiatives failed. The feasibility of the sector is still to be proven, he said. Phipps insists that they will be on to something great if additional finance is received.
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Philippines struggles to green school amid climate risks
Teachers urge investment in climate-resilient school infrastructure Philippines is facing a shortage of 165,000 classrooms Teachers fill funding and staffing gaps By Mariejo Ramos In the last decade, the government has adjusted the school calendars in order to avoid the typhoons season which begins usually in June. The government changed the school calendar to June to March this year after heatwaves forced the closure of schools in April and May. Teachers' groups are happy with the new calendar, but they also want the government do more than just tweak it. They want to invest in infrastructure to make schools resistant to heat and weather. Natural calamities have still left the Philippines' education system reeling. They damaged school buildings, and increased a shortage of classrooms that Department of Education estimates at 165,000 this school year. The Department has set an ideal classroom size of 40 students in high school and 35 students in primary school. According to news reports, the metro region of Manila averages 48 students per class. According to the United Nations Children's Fund, the classroom crisis worsens the impact of climate changes on Filipino children. At least 96 per cent of them experience multiple climate-related hazards, such as floods, heatwaves, and tropical cyclones. The education department, which has limited funds for repairs and maintenance each year, asks parents and teachers to help clean, organize and repair classrooms one week before school opens. Benjo Basas is a high-school teacher and spokesperson for the Teachers' Dignity Coalition. The group advocates the rights of Filipino teachers. Basas said that the solution to the problem of education is not to ask the community for help, but rather to increase the budgets of schools to cover repairs, operations and infrastructure. This is the responsibility of the government. Greening Philippine Schools According to the United Nations cultural agency UNESCO, it is crucial to green schools that classrooms are climate-proofed and emergency preparedness is improved. The Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos promised long ago to make the schools "climate ready." His plan involves retrofitting and expanding infrastructure to withstand climate catastrophes. The Department of Education defines climate-ready schools as "safe, resilient and learning-friendly school infrastructures that are inclusive, green, and safe." But greening Philippine schools remains daunting. The Philippine Institute for Development Studies, a think tank, conducted a study in 2024 that noted that classrooms are still crowded as the number of students increases and classrooms continue to deteriorate from natural disasters and wear and tear. The study found that electricity access is still a problem for some schools in the Philippines. More than 39,000 of these schools will need to upgrade their electrical connections by 2020 to prevent fires and to improve ventilation. Underfunded classrooms Raymond Basilio is an educator, and the secretary general of Alliance of Concerned Teachers Philippines. He believes that returning to the old school calendar will help prevent learning loss or a decline of academic skills and knowledge due to extreme weather conditions. According to the Second Congressional Commission on Education which is assessing the education sector, despite UNESCO's recommendation that countries allocate 4%-6% of their gross domestic product (GDP) to education, the Philippines never reached this target, spending only 3%. "Since the year 2022, there has been a persistent problem of under-utilisation of the Department of Education’s quick response fund. This fund is meant to be used for repair of classrooms that have been damaged by typhoons or other natural disasters," said Basilio. Instead of overloading teachers, we should build new classrooms, hire more staff, such as school nurses or doctors to reduce classroom congestion. Teachers often fill in the funding gaps as public schools struggle to find funds. Teachers who work in schools clinics or counseling offices are not paid extra. Basilio said that despite having other duties, teachers prioritize their students, and will intervene when there are gaps. This includes providing additional services at schools, despite not being professionally trained to do so. Basas stated that in some schools teachers would spend their own money on electric fans, or collect donations to improve classroom ventilation. Climate-Resilient Schools Basas, like Basilio, believes that addressing climate risk in Philippine schools is a matter of infrastructure. Not all schools have air conditioning. Also, we should ensure that the schools are not in flood zones. "Those are the basics," Basilio said. Basas suggests making changes in advance, rather than reacting to heatwaves or storms when they occur. Are school buildings earthquake and heat resistant? Are we sure that if it rains the campuses won't be submerged by flood? He said that there are still many cases in the Philippines which we have not yet resolved. However, the Department of Education said that it may take over half a century to solve the classroom shortage in this country.
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Brazil's Piaui State plans to use carbon credits for rainforest protection
It was announced on Tuesday that the Brazilian state of Piaui would issue carbon credits as a reward for actions taken to combat deforestation. This will give momentum to other regional initiatives to protect the country's forest. Brazil wants to keep its ambitions in reducing emissions, as it prepares for the next round of climate talks to be held in the Amazonian town of Belem this November. Piaui, unlike traditional forest protection plans proposed by private landowners and involving government and local communities, is focused on public sector efforts. These efforts cover a larger area and are aimed at avoiding simply shifting the location of deforestation. In the states of Tocantins, and Para, similar projects known as jurisdictional are currently being developed. Investe Piaui (the state's mixed-economy company) announced on Tuesday that it had signed a contract with Silvania, an investment firm, to provide 10-20 millions reais (3.69 million dollars) for the development of the program. Silvania, a Brazilian company, will be the credit taker. Systemica will assist with the technical side of the program. Geonoma, a company that provides environmental services, will be leading the development of the programme. The group stated that if Piaui reduces deforestation 10% annually, it can generate over 20 million credits in 2030, which they could sell to countries and companies to help them achieve their own emission targets. In a press release, the Governor of the state Rafael Fonteles stated that "Through Investe Piaui we will protect our forests and create sustainable opportunities for communities." Carbon credits may not always deliver the environmental benefits that they claim, but their importance could increase as governments become more focused on short-term cost and political will to combat climate change ebbs. This is despite scientists' findings linking human activity to record-breaking temperatures, extreme weather, and other extreme events. Last week, the European Union proposed for the first-time an EU climate goal that would allow countries to use credits of carbon from developing nations in order to reach a small portion of their emission goals.
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Copper prices rise amid uncertainty over tariffs and Chilean supply outlook
The London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange saw copper prices rise on Tuesday. However, uncertainty about U.S. Tariffs and increased supply of copper from Chile, which is the world's biggest producer, limited further gains. As of 0703 GMT the three-month copper price on the LME rose 0.3% to $9,860 a metric ton. The most traded copper contract on SHFE also increased 0.14% to 79.620 yuan (11,102.13 dollars) per ton. On Monday, the United States notified 14 countries of new tariffs that will take effect August 1, ranging between 25% and 40%. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, warned that a 10% additional tariff could be imposed if BRICS nations such as Brazil, Russia India and China pursued what he called "anti-American policies" during their Brazil summit. The market is still focused on U.S. tariffs as they haven't been finalized. A higher value of copper exported from Chile may indicate a larger supply, according to a metals analyst in Beijing from a futures firm. Chile exported $4.67 Billion worth of copper to the world in June, an increase of 17.5% compared with the previous period. ANZ reported that "Chilean Copper Mines enjoyed their best export month in three years in June", The U.S. continues to receive copper, despite Washington's investigation into possible new copper import tariffs. COMEX futures are still trading at a premium over the LME benchmark, and COMEX stocks have reached a 7-year high or risen 120% since February. LME nickel fell 0.31% to $15,130 per ton. Tin rose 0.57%, to $33,475, while lead grew by 0.56%, to $2 048, aluminium increased by 0.54%, to $2 587.5, and zinc climbed 0.47%, to $2 697. SHFE aluminium rose 0.12% to 20.525 yuan per ton. Nickel fell 0.67% to 120.370 yuan. Zinc dropped 0.61% at 22,050 Yuan. Lead eased 0.29% at 17,160 Yuan. Tin slipped 0.08% to 265480 Yuan. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories.
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Iron ore prices rise despite Trump's tariff threats
Iron ore prices rose on Tuesday due to a resilient short-term demand from China, the world's largest consumer. However, caution caused by President Donald Trump’s threat of increased tariffs limited gains. After falling nearly 0.7% Monday, the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended daytime trading 0.14% higher. As of 0700 GMT, the benchmark August iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was up 0.44% at $95.65 per ton. According to Mysteel, the near-term demand for iron ore was stable. This is reflected in the relatively high output of hot metal, which hovered around 2,41 million tons on July 3. That's an increase of 0.6% annually. Iron ore demand is usually gauged by the hot metal production levels. Analysts have noted that this has led to a price increase for the main steelmaking ingredient. Mysteel data also showed that portside iron ore inventories fell 0.4% in the previous week to 144.04 millions tons on July 7. The resumption of trade tensions around the world has limited price increases. Trump began Monday telling his trade partners, from major suppliers like Japan and South Korea down to minor ones, that the U.S. will be imposing sharply higher tariffs on August 1. This marks a new phase of the trade war Trump launched earlier this summer. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also advanced on the DCE. They both rose by 0.84% and 0.14 %, respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been moving sideways. Rebar fell 0.13%, while hot-rolled coils were down 0.06%. Wire rod was up 0.18%, and stainless steel gained 0.322%. The (steel market) focus has returned to the seasonally weak fundamentals, after the frenzy over promises of crackdowns on price wars receded," Zhuo Guqiu said. Analyst at Jinrui Futures. The downside is likely to be limited, as supply and demand are not in conflict at the moment. ($1 = 7.1716 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Janane Vekatraman, Rashmi aich and Janane Venkatraman)
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Dozens of people missing following floods along Nepal-China border
Officials said that over two dozen people were missing on Tuesday after heavy rains in Tibet, China triggered an avalanche in the Bhote Koshi River. The river flows through Nepal and China and washed away the "Friendship Bridge" which connects the two countries. At least 18 people have been reported missing in Nepal, while China's Xinhua News Agency said that 11 people had gone missing on the Chinese border. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, (NDRRMA), said on X that six Chinese workers and three officers were missing in Nepal. Eight electric cars and a small power plant were also damaged by the flood. Arjun Paudel is a senior official in the Rasuwa district. He said that the Chinese nationals who went missing were employed at the Inland Container Depot. It was being built with Chinese assistance, about 80 km north of Kathmandu. He said: "The river washed away some containers containing goods imported from China...There has been a large loss (of property), and we are gathering details." Raja Ram Basnet, a spokesperson for the Nepal Army, said that 11 people had been rescued and that search and rescue efforts were still ongoing. China has increased its investment in Nepal over the past few years, including in areas such as roads, hospitals, and power plants. Over the past few days, China has suffered from heavy rains and flash floods, which have caused a trail destruction. A tropical storm is expected to hit this week. The National Disaster Management Authority in Pakistan (NDMA) announced on Tuesday that at least 79 Pakistanis, including 38 kids, had died as a result of floods, rain-related incidents such as landslides, and collapsed houses, since 26 June. Authorities have issued new alerts regarding flash flooding and glacial outbursts, citing "a significant increase in temperatures and...an upcoming weather system." NDMA spokesperson Sophia Siddiqui said that Gilgit-Baltistan’s northern Chilas District recorded the highest temperatures in Pakistan at 48.5 degrees Celsius on Saturday. This beats its previous record of 47.7 deg Celsius (118degF), reported in July 1997.
Bousso: Saudi Arabia plays short-term and long-term with OPEC+ Production Gamble
OPEC+ will increase its output target by 2,5 million bpd from April to September
Saudi Arabia has large spare production, while other countries are producing at capacity
Riyadh’s share of the global oil production fell to 11% by 2024, from 13%
Ron Bousso
LONDON, 7th July - Saudi Arabia’s desire to increase OPEC+ output rapidly may place Riyadh at the forefront of regaining market share while also consolidating its dominance on the long-term.
Eight major oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates as well as Kuwait, Oman, Iraq and Kazakhstan, decided on Saturday to boost their joint production in August by 548,000 barrels a day. This will accelerate the unwinding from a series of cuts that totaled 2,17 million bpd, which began in April.
By the end of September, OPEC+'s output will have likely increased by 2.5 million bpd. This is due to the combination of the accelerated schedule with the UAE's agreed increase of 300,000.
The new quotas won't actually result in a drastic change to the aggregate output of the group, since most members already produce at or above these levels.
Saudi Arabia has been irritated by Kazakhstan's failure to meet OPEC+ targets for several months. Central Asia produced 1,88 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, which was the same as its all-time record in March, and far exceeded its production target for August of 1,53 million bpd.
According to estimates, the eight OPEC+ countries produced a total of 32 million bpd compared to a quota set at 31.38 millions bpd. Unwinding production cuts means catching up to the reality of the situation on the ground.
Saudi Arabia is the de-facto leader in OPEC+, and also the top oil exporter in the world. By making this move, it will be able to reestablish the discipline within the group, and increase its share of the market.
SECURE CAPACITY
According to the Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy, Saudi Arabia's share of the global oil production is expected to decline from 13% in the last three decades to just 11% by 2024.
According to Kpler, crude oil exports from the country will account for only 15% in 2024 of the global seaborne exports, down from 18% on average in the last decade.
According to the International Monetary Fund, oil and gas revenues will contribute 22.3% to the country's GDP in 2024.
Saudi Arabia is fortunate to have a large amount of oil production capacity that has not been tapped.
Keshav Lohiya of Oilytics, the founder of a consultancy, said that data from Petro-Logistics showed that the country produced 9.55 million barrels per day in June. The OPEC+ agreement allows for an additional 200,000 bpd in production through August.
According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, it also has a buffer of production that is nearly 3 million BPD. It can tap this within 90 days.
Saudi Arabia, and only the UAE, is the only OPEC+ member that has the potential to increase its production substantially in the next quarter.
Price War
The addition of additional production will put downward pressure on crude oil prices. They have already fallen 15% to less than $70 a barrel this year, largely because OPEC unwinded its initial supply cuts and due to concerns about demand resulting from President Donald Trump’s trade war.
Saudi Arabia could benefit from falling prices because both OPEC+ members and non-OPEC+ members are likely to cut back on spending when prices fall. This means that Riyadh, with its abundant spare capacity and low costs of production, will be in a better position than its competitors to meet the new demand.
Recent price drops have already made a significant impact on U.S. producers of shale oils. Energy Information Administration predicts that U.S. oil production will decline from a record high of 13.5 millions bpd during the second quarter this year, to 13.3 million in the fourth quarter 2026. This is the first decrease since the production surge at the end last decade.
Riyadh may decide to accelerate OPEC+ in the months ahead to increase its own production and put more pressure on its competitors.
LONG GAME
Saudi Arabia is ultimately a long-term gamble.
The impact of Riyadh’s move on the rest industry may not be felt for some time.
It will take many years for the slowdown in investment to be translated into lower production.
According to IEA estimates, the global supply is expected to increase by 1.6 millions bpd, to an average 104.6 million bpd, and 970,000 bpd more next year. This will outpace the anticipated growth in demand during this period. According to the IEA, the majority of supply growth will be driven by non OPEC+ producers, such as the United States and other countries like Brazil, Argentina, Guyana, Canada, and Guyana.
These forecasts were the exact reason why Saudi Arabia needed to act to maintain its market dominance on the long-term.
Riyadh's gamble could pay off, given the current market dynamics. Oil producers are reluctant to invest heavily in new production because of low prices and the uncertainty surrounding global demand for energy.
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(source: Reuters)