Latest News
-
Gold prices soar, but Indians prefer coins to jewellery for the festive season
Industry officials said that Indian buyers chose coins and bars instead of jewellery at the Dhanteras Festival on Saturday because they were hoping the gold price rally would continue. Dhanteras marks the beginning of Diwali, a five-day festival of lights. It is considered auspicious to buy gold. In fact, it is the second busiest day for gold purchases in the world. The volume of gold sold during Dhanteras was 10-15% less than last year. However, the total value increased sharply because prices were higher, according to Rajesh Rokde, chairman, All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council. Surendra Mehta is the secretary of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association. He said that gold jewellery demand was hit by record-high prices. Prices dropped nearly 30% compared to last year. However, coins and bars flew off the shelves. India's gold jewellery is more expensive than gold coins because buyers pay manufacturing fees of 10-20%. Gold prices in India closed at 127.008 rupees for 10 grams last Friday, after reaching a record high price of 132.294. This represents a rise of over 60% from Dhanteras last year. India's NSE Nifty50 share index rose about 5% over the period. Sachin Jain is the CEO of World Gold Council India operations. This week, Indian dealers quoted a premium. The price of gold can be up to 25 dollars per ounce more than the official domestic prices. This includes 6% import duties and 3% sales taxes. It is the highest it has been in over a decade. Saurabh Gadgil of PNG Jewellers said that the price rise for silver bars, coins and jewellery has been a major factor in driving demand this year. Dealers said investors believe silver will outperform gold. In recent months, the higher returns of precious metals has attracted strong inflows to physically backed exchange-traded gold and silver funds. Rokde, of GJC, said: "With Dhanteras continuing tomorrow afternoon and jewellery stores staying open until midnight, we expect the buying momentum to continue." (Reporting and editing by Jan Harvey; Rajendra Jadhav)
-
New Zealand's Finmin aims to strengthen regional ties as US-China trade war continues
Nicola Willis, New Zealand's Finance Minister, said that regional and bilateral trade relationships would continue to grow in the face of the U.S.-China Trade War. Small countries such as hers will have to adjust to a different reality and maintain their priorities. Willis stated in an interview with The New Zealand Herald on Thursday that New Zealand is acutely aware of geopolitical risks and economic challenges. However, her discussions this week at the World Bank and International Monetary Fund annual meetings showed the strength of international institutions as well as trade agreements among other countries. She said that New Zealand and the European Union have expressed an interest in establishing a partnership under the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. This is a free-trade agreement between 11 countries, including Canada and Japan. She said that a separate trade agreement with the United Arab Emirates is also promising. She said: "All those trade relations are very strong. The message we receive from our partners is they want to continue building on them and expanding them rather than going the other direction." "We are cautious and worried about any backsliding in agreements. But we don't see signs that this is happening." IMF and global officials highlighted this week uncertainty and risks associated with a new escalation of the U.S. China trade war. However, they also pointed out that global trade has remained resilient, noting only three countries, the U.S. China, and Canada, had increased tariff rates in the past few months. 72% still adhere to the existing rules. Willis stated that New Zealand was also committed to meeting its emissions reductions commitments under Paris Climate Accord and didn't expect the withdrawal of the U.S. by President Donald Trump from the agreement to derail the country's efforts. Willis stated that "we need to adapt and prepare for the threat and risk of more extreme climate events, not only for ourselves but also for our Pacific Island family who are especially vulnerable to significant climatic event," Willis added. She said that consumers in the U.S. and around the globe would continue to have an interest in the emission profile of countries such as New Zealand. This creates a commercial imperative for climate action. Willis stated that existing trade agreements such as New Zealand’s deal with the EU required continued adherence of climate commitments. There are many bilateral agreements around the world in which countries have agreed to continue their climate action. "I'm seeing many nations continue to honor their commitments." Willis added that New Zealand remained a member of the Five Eyes Group, alongside Britain, Canada, U.S.A., and Australia. It was also increasing its defense expenditure along with other countries amid growing geo-strategic tensions and fragility. (Reporting and Editing by Marguerita Chy)
-
As local ceasefire zones are set, repairs begin on the Zaporizhzhia Power Plant lines
Officials said that after a four-week power outage at Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, repair work had begun on the damaged power lines off-site. IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi stated that the work started after local ceasefire zones had been established to allow the repairs to progress. The plant produces no electricity at the moment, but it needs to produce power in order to keep fuel cool and prevent a meltdown. "Restoring off-site electricity is critical for nuclear safety and secure. Grossi wrote on the social media platform X that both sides had engaged with the IAEA in a constructive manner to allow a complex plan of repair to move forward. The Ukrainian Energy Ministry and the Russian-appointed Management of the Plant both confirmed that the maintenance work. In the first few weeks of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russian troops seized Europe’s largest nuclear power plant with six reactors. Both Kyiv, and Moscow accuse one another of regular attacks that threaten nuclear safety. The power plant, located near Enerhodar on the Dnipro River, is in close proximity to the frontline. The plant has been disconnected from the grid many times during the three-and-a-half years of war. However, the most recent outage was the longest. Svitlana Svitlana Hrynchuk, Ukrainian Energy Minister said connecting the plant to Ukraine's grid and having Ukrainian experts ensure its stability were essential to prevent a nuclear accident. The Russian-appointed plant management said that the Russian Defence Ministry will play a crucial role in ensuring safety during the repair works. Reporting by Rajveer Pardesi, in Bengaluru; Filipp Lebedev, in London; and Olena Hartmash, in Kyiv. Editing by Jan Harvey.
-
Iberdrola Puts 49% East Anglia TWO Offshore Wind Stake Up for Sale
Spanish power utility Iberdrola is seeking to sell 49% of its offshore wind farm East Anglia Two in Britain, which has an estimated total value of 5 billion euros ($5.8 billion), newspaper Cinco Dias reported on Thursday, citing unidentified sources familiar with the plans.The company has hired Bank of America BAC.N and BBVA BBVA.MC as financial advisers for the potential sale, the report said.An Iberdrola spokesperson did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.Iberdrola has been shifting its focus from green assets to power networks in regions with maximum legal certainty, such as the United States and Britain.The company continues to see the U.S. as a key market despite opposition from President Donald Trump's administration to offshore wind. But the bulk of its investments are in power networks - regulated at state level - in Democratic-controlled states like New York, Maine, Massachusetts or Connecticut.In September, Iberdrola announced a 30% increase in investment through 2028 to 58 billion euros - two thirds of which are destined to British and U.S. power networks.($1 = 0.8581 euros)(Reuters - Reporting by David Latona; Editing by Jane Merriman)
-
Moody's downgrades Botswana's credit rating to "Baa1" amid a slump in the diamond industry
Moody's, the global credit rating agency, downgraded Botswana's ratings to 'Baa1' (from 'A3') on Friday. The downgrade was attributed to the government's difficulties in adapting to the structural decline in the diamond sector and the increasing government debt. Moody's stated in a press release that "the economy remains heavily dependent on capital-intensive mining of diamonds; diversification efforts are lagging due to reform delays while climate shocks continue to persist." Botswana, long regarded as an African success story in economics, is now in a slump. This is due to the prolonged decline in the global market for diamonds, its main export. The demand has been hurt by the economic uncertainty in the world and the growing popularity of lab-grown gemstones. According to Moody's, the world's largest diamond producer by value has seen its current account deficit increase and reserves fall to an historic low. Botswana is expected to see its economy decline by 6% more in 2025, as the country remains vulnerable to global demand shocks, technological disruptions from lab-grown substitutes and changes in consumer preference. S&P, a peer agency, cut Botswana’s rating last month to 'BBB.' It expects that weak global diamond prices and demand will continue to keep the Southern African nation's fiscal and external flow positions weak. The agency stated that the global diamond slump is not likely to reverse and maintained the country's view as 'negative.' (Reporting and editing by AnushkaChourasia and SfundoParakozov)
-
Hand and foot remains found in Kenya suggest ancient human relatives
Researchers in northern Kenya have discovered fossils of the hand and foot bones of an extinct human relative that dates back to 1.52million years ago. This species was able to manipulate stone tools, and would have been fully bipedal. The fossils were the first to be unambiguously associated with the species Paranthropus boisei. Researchers found a partial skull that contained a large portion of the hand and three foot bones. They also discovered most of teeth, a forearm fragment, a partial tooth, and a fragment of a skull. The new discovery is a revelation, especially when you consider the fragmentary nature previous fossils. This species is a descendant of Homo Sapiens, who evolved much later. Paranthropus bossei had a robust build with massive teeth and strong jaws. The skull of Paranthropus boisei was designed for chewing tough plant food. It had a crest on top to anchor the large jaw muscles. Flaring cheekbones gave it a dish shape. It was difficult to know the species without hand and foot fossils. This included whether it could have made and used simple tools. The study, published in Nature this week, was led by paleoanthropologist Carrie Mongle, a researcher at Stony Brook University, New York. The fossils have been discovered on the eastern shore of Lake Turkana in a place called Koobi Fora. Before this discovery, researchers were only able to study the dental and cranial remains, but very little else was known about this species' skeleton, said Louise Leakey of the Koobi Fora Research Project, a paleoanthropologist who co-authored the study. Mongle stated that the hand bones showed it was able to form precision grips like modern humans. This suggests this species could have made and used stone tools. Leakey stated that the handshake would have been very firm. We can tell that this species' hand was built to be able to hold firmly and for a long time. It would have been similar to gorillas as it would have used the hands to break down tough plant food, such as tearing, crushing or stripping vegetation. This is consistent with their hard and fibrous dietary habits, seen in its robust dentition. Fossils also revealed the species' locomotion. It was well adapted to walk upright on two feet. Leakey explained that "we can tell from its few foot bones that it is fully bipedal and not flat-footed, like a monkey, and that it would have had a similar lateral arch to ours which would have propelled the animal forward as it walked." Hominins are species that have evolved from humans. Paranthropus boisei is one of the four hominins that shared East Africa's landscape between one and two millions years ago. There have been discoveries of stone and bone tools dating from this period, but it is unclear if Paranthropus could have made and used them. Genus is a term used to describe a grouping of closely related species. Our species belongs to Homo. Homo, Homo Rudolfensis, and Homo Erectus are extinct species that lived in East Africa at the same time as Paranthropus. Some of these species literally crossed paths. In a study published in 2013, Paranthropus erectus and Homo boisei left footprints that crossed each other at Koobi Fora, a once muddy lakeshore. This discovery raised interesting questions about the relationship and competition between the two species for resources. Mongle explained that "Conventional Wisdom" has it that, while Homo was specialized in bigger brains and stone tools that allowed them to adapt well to changing climates, Paranthropus became a grass-focused dietary specialist. Leakey stated that the Paranthropus eventually went extinct.
-
US furloughs workers at Nuclear Weapons Agency due to shutdown
Chris Wright, the Energy Secretary of the United States, said that the Trump administration will start furloughing workers next week at the agency responsible for managing the U.S. arsenal of nuclear weapons due to the shutdown. Wright stated in a posting on X, that furloughs would affect National Nuclear Security Administration employees who are "critical for modernizing our nuclear weapons." The NNSA is a semi-autonomous department of energy that also works in Ukraine to protect dangerous nuclear materials as the war against Russia continues. About 2,000 employees supervise 60,000 contractors who maintain and test weapons in national laboratories across the U.S. Wright told USA Today, that due to the shutdown now in its 17th week, there could be up to tens-of-thousands of contractor layoffs and furloughs for staff. Experts in nuclear weapons control have criticized potential reductions. The Arms Control Association's executive director Daryl Kimball said, "If the Trump Administration really believes the NNSA functions are important - and many are essential for nuclear facilities safety and security - I am sure they will find the funding to keep workers on the jobs, or they may want to reconsider their position regarding the federal government shut down." Wright, speaking to Bloomberg Surveillance Friday, said that the agency would not be furloughing people who work in emergency services. Wright said that the nuclear weapons modernization program, which is replacing older weapons with newer ones, could be affected. He said that the modernization program was just starting to gain momentum. "To have everyone unpaid and not come to work will not be helpful." A non-partisan report from the Congressional Budget Office in April projected that costs for operating and modernizing America’s nuclear forces until 2034 would reach $946 billion. This is 25% more than a previous estimate of 2023. The NNSA and Pentagon share the costs of nuclear weapons.
-
A stampede kills two and injures many at the funeral of Kenyan opposition leader Odinga
Doctors Without Borders reported that two people died and over 160 were injured during a stampede on Friday at the funeral of Kenyan Opposition Leader Raila Odinga. Nairobi's Nyayo National Stadium was packed with people for the funeral of Odinga. Heavy security was also in place. Kenyan broadcaster NTV said that some people in the crowd rushed forward to see Odinga's corpse, causing them to crush mourners. It did not provide any further details. Kenya Red Cross spokeswoman said that "our teams are helping to treat and evacuate the wounded" but added that more details were not available immediately. The police did no answer the phone. Doctors Without Borders released a statement saying that two people died in the melee, and that more than 160 other were injured. The exact cause of all injuries, including fractures and blunt trauma, was not immediately known. Three people died on Thursday, when security forces opened fire at mourners at the Kasarani Stadium during a public viewing. Former political prisoner, who ran for president unsuccessfully five times in Kenyan politics for decades. He died on Wednesday, aged 80, in India where he was receiving medical care. Thousands of mourners danced and waved white handkerchiefs at the Friday service. Banners bearing Odinga’s portrait were also displayed. Some blew vuvuzelas and whistles to honour the man whom they called "Baba" or father in Swahili. William Ruto, Kenya's President, attended the service on Friday which included military honours. Since early Thursday morning, people have been taking to the streets to show their respect and to celebrate Odinga. Mourners stormed the main airport of the country when the plane with his body arrived. Flights were suspended for two hours. Odinga will be buried on Sunday at his homestead, in western Kenya. He was particularly beloved by members of the Luo tribe. Many of them believe that he lost the presidency through electoral fraud. Odinga, who is primarily known as an opponent, became Prime Minister in 2008; he also formed a political alliance with the former President Uhuru Nairobitta in 2018 and Ruto in 2018. This has been a career marked by shifting alliances. (Reporting and editing by Toby Chopra, Cynthia Osterman, Vincent Mumo and George Obulutsa)
Bousso: Saudi Arabia plays short-term and long-term with OPEC+ Production Gamble
OPEC+ will increase its output target by 2,5 million bpd from April to September
Saudi Arabia has large spare production, while other countries are producing at capacity
Riyadh’s share of the global oil production fell to 11% by 2024, from 13%
Ron Bousso
LONDON, 7th July - Saudi Arabia’s desire to increase OPEC+ output rapidly may place Riyadh at the forefront of regaining market share while also consolidating its dominance on the long-term.
Eight major oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates as well as Kuwait, Oman, Iraq and Kazakhstan, decided on Saturday to boost their joint production in August by 548,000 barrels a day. This will accelerate the unwinding from a series of cuts that totaled 2,17 million bpd, which began in April.
By the end of September, OPEC+'s output will have likely increased by 2.5 million bpd. This is due to the combination of the accelerated schedule with the UAE's agreed increase of 300,000.
The new quotas won't actually result in a drastic change to the aggregate output of the group, since most members already produce at or above these levels.
Saudi Arabia has been irritated by Kazakhstan's failure to meet OPEC+ targets for several months. Central Asia produced 1,88 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, which was the same as its all-time record in March, and far exceeded its production target for August of 1,53 million bpd.
According to estimates, the eight OPEC+ countries produced a total of 32 million bpd compared to a quota set at 31.38 millions bpd. Unwinding production cuts means catching up to the reality of the situation on the ground.
Saudi Arabia is the de-facto leader in OPEC+, and also the top oil exporter in the world. By making this move, it will be able to reestablish the discipline within the group, and increase its share of the market.
SECURE CAPACITY
According to the Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy, Saudi Arabia's share of the global oil production is expected to decline from 13% in the last three decades to just 11% by 2024.
According to Kpler, crude oil exports from the country will account for only 15% in 2024 of the global seaborne exports, down from 18% on average in the last decade.
According to the International Monetary Fund, oil and gas revenues will contribute 22.3% to the country's GDP in 2024.
Saudi Arabia is fortunate to have a large amount of oil production capacity that has not been tapped.
Keshav Lohiya of Oilytics, the founder of a consultancy, said that data from Petro-Logistics showed that the country produced 9.55 million barrels per day in June. The OPEC+ agreement allows for an additional 200,000 bpd in production through August.
According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, it also has a buffer of production that is nearly 3 million BPD. It can tap this within 90 days.
Saudi Arabia, and only the UAE, is the only OPEC+ member that has the potential to increase its production substantially in the next quarter.
Price War
The addition of additional production will put downward pressure on crude oil prices. They have already fallen 15% to less than $70 a barrel this year, largely because OPEC unwinded its initial supply cuts and due to concerns about demand resulting from President Donald Trump’s trade war.
Saudi Arabia could benefit from falling prices because both OPEC+ members and non-OPEC+ members are likely to cut back on spending when prices fall. This means that Riyadh, with its abundant spare capacity and low costs of production, will be in a better position than its competitors to meet the new demand.
Recent price drops have already made a significant impact on U.S. producers of shale oils. Energy Information Administration predicts that U.S. oil production will decline from a record high of 13.5 millions bpd during the second quarter this year, to 13.3 million in the fourth quarter 2026. This is the first decrease since the production surge at the end last decade.
Riyadh may decide to accelerate OPEC+ in the months ahead to increase its own production and put more pressure on its competitors.
LONG GAME
Saudi Arabia is ultimately a long-term gamble.
The impact of Riyadh’s move on the rest industry may not be felt for some time.
It will take many years for the slowdown in investment to be translated into lower production.
According to IEA estimates, the global supply is expected to increase by 1.6 millions bpd, to an average 104.6 million bpd, and 970,000 bpd more next year. This will outpace the anticipated growth in demand during this period. According to the IEA, the majority of supply growth will be driven by non OPEC+ producers, such as the United States and other countries like Brazil, Argentina, Guyana, Canada, and Guyana.
These forecasts were the exact reason why Saudi Arabia needed to act to maintain its market dominance on the long-term.
Riyadh's gamble could pay off, given the current market dynamics. Oil producers are reluctant to invest heavily in new production because of low prices and the uncertainty surrounding global demand for energy.
You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your essential source for global commentary on financial markets. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.
(source: Reuters)