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Crude futures turn positive on continued Hormuz closure
Analysts were cautious, however, as they feared that the weekend could bring about unexpected changes to the war status two weeks after its start. Brent futures were up $1.59 or 1.58% to $102.05 a barrel at 11:35 AM CDT (1635 GMT), pointing towards a weekly gain. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), for April, gained $1.15 or 1.2% to $96.88 per barrel. This was also a week-to-week increase. Phil Flynn is a senior analyst at Price Futures Group. We're about to enter another weekend, where this could be over by Monday. We could also see that the war continues and that the market will reach new highs by Sunday night. The U.S. has issued a license to countries for them to purchase Russian oil and petroleum products that are stranded on the sea. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that it was a move to stabilize global energy markets, which were roiled by U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. According to Russia's presidential representative Kirill Dmitriev, this will affect 100,000,000 barrels of Russian oil, which is equivalent to almost one day's global production. Bjarne Shieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, said: "Russian oil had already been going to buyers. This does not bring additional barrels to market but it reduces some friction." The market is becoming increasingly concerned about the length of this war. The biggest fear is that oil infrastructure will be severely damaged, resulting in a permanent loss of supply. OIL to be released from Stockpiles The announcement about Russian oil comes a day after U.S. Energy Department announced that Washington would release 172 million barrels of oil to help reduce the skyrocketing price of oil. This plan was coordinated in conjunction with the International Energy Agency (IEA), which agreed to release 400 million barrels from its strategic oil stockpiles. The U.S. contributed to this. In a note, IG analyst Tony Sycamore noted that the IEA's release was followed by a resurgence of Middle East risk. Ayatollah Khamenei, the new supreme leader of Iran, said that Iran will continue to fight and close the Strait of Hormuz as a way of using the United States and Israel against it. Iraqi officials confirmed that two fuel tanks in Iraqi water were hit by Iranian boats laden with explosives, on Thursday. According to an Iraqi official, the oil ports in the country have stopped all operations. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said Thursday that the United States could make a lot of money off the oil prices driven up by the war against Iran. He said that stopping Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons was a far more important goal. The benchmark prices both rose more than 9% Thursday, and reached their highest level since August 2022. Goldman Sachs predicted on Friday that Brent oil would average over $100 per barrel in March, and $85 in May, due to energy prices remaining volatile because of the Iran War, damage to Middle East infrastructure, and disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz. Emril Jamil is a senior analyst at LSEG. He said that Brent is better supported by?WTI than?WTI, because Europe is more vulnerable to energy security concerns, while the U.S. can stave off their exposure due to 'their domestic production. Sources said that Iran has deployed around a dozen mines along the strait. This move is likely to?complicate the reopening the vital waterway. In a statement issued on Thursday, the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei stated that Iran would continue to "block" the Strait of Hormuz as well as attack nations in its neighbourhood which host U.S. bases. Treasury Secretary Bessent said in an interview with Sky News that the U.S. Navy would, possibly along with an international alliance, escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz if it was militarily feasible. Anna Hirtenstein reported from London. Additional reporting from Jeslyn Leh in Singapore; Sam Li, Lewis Jackson and Aiden Lewis in Beijing.
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Petrobras Brazil to increase diesel prices after Oil Shock
Petrobras, the state-owned oil company in Brazil, will increase the price of diesel sold by distributors by 0.38 reais (US$0.0725) per liter starting 'March 14th. The decision comes in the wake of the recent increase in oil prices caused by the U.S./Israeli conflict in Iran. This spike has widened the gap between Petrobras local diesel prices, and international benchmarks in recent days to a record high. Distributors were reluctant to sell to Petrobras because they feared they'd have to resupply the product at higher prices. According to the company, the average price of diesel that the oil giant charges distributors is now 3.65 reais a liter. Brazil's government is concerned about the rising price of diesel. On Thursday, it lowered taxes on diesel and increased a tax on oil exports to?soften the impact on local consumers of global price increases. The company stated that the decision by the federal government to abolish diesel taxes will help reduce the impact on consumers of the price increase. The company announced that CEO Magda.Chambriard, along with other Petrobras executives will be holding a press conference later today to discuss the increase in price.
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France and Italy begin talks with Iran on the passage of the Hormuz; Italy denies FT reports
France and?Italy opened talks with Iran on Friday to?negotiate a deal that would guarantee safe passage of?their vessels through?the Strait of?Hormuz. However, Italy denied this report. Since the U.S. began its strikes against Iran on February 28, shipping in the Gulf, and along the Strait of Hormuz - which carries a fifth of all the oil on the planet - has been at a standstill. Global oil prices have soared to levels not seen since the year 2022. The FT reported that France is one of the European nations engaged in talks with Tehran while Italy sought to contact the Iranians. The FT reported that a?source from the Italian foreign ministry? denied it. Source: "Italian leaders are promoting a general de-escalation of military tensions in their diplomatic contacts. However, there is no secret negotiation to preserve only certain merchant ships and at the expense?of others," said the source. Unnamed French officials said that France still had open channels of communication with Iran, but they would not confirm or deny the story. The Elysee declined to comment on a request. France has deployed a fleet of 12 naval vessels including an aircraft carrier strike group to the Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, and possibly the Strait of Hormuz, as part of its defensive support for allies who are threatened by the conflict in the Middle East. (Reporting from Chandni in Bengaluru; Angelo Amante, Michel Rose, and John Irish, Writing by Gabriel Stargardter and Editing by Toby Chopra.)
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JP Morgan expects crude oil supply to drop by 12 million barrels per day as a result of the tanker ban.
JPMorgan stated in a Friday note that the crude oil supply cut is on track to hit 12 million barrels of oil per day. This will intensify deficits on physical markets, as tanker movement through a key Middle Eastern waterway faces a two-week interruption. The bank stated that "Commercial Tanker Traffic remains extremely Limited, with most vessels currently Iranian and likely heading to China." It added that although cargoes departing the Gulf prior to the shutdown are still arriving but new shipments have mostly stopped. Supplies to Asia could run out next week while Europe bound flows are likely stop next week. After the conflict, major Gulf producers started to reduce production, disrupting the 'Strait of Hormuz', where one-fifth of the global oil supply passes. An Indian government official confirmed that a tanker with an Indian flag, carrying gasoline from India to Africa, had exited the Strait of Hormuz on Friday. The U.S. also issued a 30-day license allowing countries to buy stranded Russian petroleum and oil products. JPMorgan reported that "Production shutdowns have already reached approximately 6.5 million bpd - roughly 1 million above our previous estimates." The bank stated that the global supply of diesel, jet fuel, LPG and naphtha is approximately 7 million bpd less than demand. JPMorgan noted that approximately 5 million barrels per day of refined products transited the affected waterway. This was a major artery for middle distillates and feedstocks used in petrochemicals. The bank said that Europe is particularly vulnerable, since the region relies heavily on Middle Eastern jet fuel and diesel after its ban on Russian imports. The bank stated that approximately 2,000,000 bpd Middle Eastern refining capability is effectively offline because of export restrictions and infrastructure attacks. This tightens global supply balances immediately. JP Morgan warned that while refiners may increase their operations in the U.S. and Europe to take advantage of'strong margins', they will most likely see higher prices for products and greater margins due to limited spare capacity. Anmol Choubey, Bengaluru (Reporting) Nick Zieminski (Editing).
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The biggest global oil supply disruptions ever
International Energy Agency stated that the closing of the Strait of Hormuz caused the biggest disruption in global oil markets history. The agency said supply is expected to drop by around 8 million barrels per day or 8% in March. In response, the member countries of the agency agreed to release 400 million barrels from their strategic stockpiles in order to stabilize oil prices and compensate Middle East production loss. Here's a list of previous oil supply disruptions: The 1973-1974 Arab Oil Embargo The Arab oil embargo was initiated by the Yom Kippur War which began in October '6, '1973, with coordinated attacks against Israel. Arab producers, acting through the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, ordered a 5% immediate reduction in production. This was followed by a further 5% monthly reduction. This was done to put pressure on Western nations in order to get Israel to withdraw its occupation of Arab lands since 1967's Six-Day War. According to declassified documents from the U.S. National Security Council prepared for President Richard Nixon, the embargo was estimated to leave the United States with a shortage of 2-3 million barrels a day. The total shortage in embargoed countries is around 4.5 millions bpd. According to U.S. Government records, OAPEC announced its embargo against the U.S. on October 17, 1973. It remained in effect until March 1974. Crude oil prices almost quadrupled from $2.90 a barrel prior to the embargo, to $11.65 per barrel by January 1974. The U.S. Government prepared fuel rationing programs, ordered industries switch from oil to coal, pushed to increase domestic production, and advanced emergency legislation. In 1974, the crisis led to oil-consuming countries establishing the International Energy Agency to coordinate their responses to supply interruptions. The Iranian Revolution of 1978-1979 The political turmoil in Iran led to the fall of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s government and Ayatollah Khamooni's rise. Iranian oil production dropped sharply from 4.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to 7% of the global supply by January 1979. The oil prices started to increase rapidly around mid-1979. They?more than halved between April 1979 - April 1980 due to fears of more disruptions and speculation, as well as strong global demand. The crisis was a major factor in rising inflation rates in the U.S. Paul Volcker became chairman of the Federal Reserve in August 1979. The 'central bank' adopted aggressive monetary tightening measures to combat inflation. These policies ended the stagflation cycle, but combined with the oil crisis, they pushed the U.S. into a severe economic recession. The Gulf Crisis of 1990-1991 The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and the embargo imposed by the United Nations on Iraqi and Kuwaiti crude oil, removed 4.3 million barrels per day from global markets. Before the war, Iraq exported about 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) and produced about 1.8 millions bpd. Together, these two countries accounted for almost a third Gulf oil production and exports. Brent crude prices rose from $17 per barrel to $36 in October 1990. Prices then fell after the end of the war in February 1991. The IEA activated their Co-ordinated Energy Emergency Response Contingency plan, preparing 2.5 million bpd to be available on the market within 15 days. This included 2 million bpd of emergency stock releases, 400,000 bpd of demand restraints, and 100,000 bpd resulting from fuel switching or spare production capacity. Hurricane Katrina slammed the U.S. Gulf Coast on August 5, 2005, halting large amounts of offshore production. According to U.S. Government data, at the height of the disruption, on August 29, 2005 about 1.38'million barrels of oil production per day was shut in. The production losses decreased gradually but remained at 840,000 bpd on September 16, 2005. Hurricane Rita was the next storm to hit in September 2005, and combined storm disruptions shut down up to 1.53 million bpd on September 26th. The Department of Energy in the United States has loaned 9.1 million barrels of crude oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to refineries. The Department of Energy lent refineries 9.1 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The U.S. participated in a coordinated 30 million barrel stock release with the International Energy Agency. The regulators issued emergency waivers to allow the use of winter blend gasoline and higher sulfur diesel fuel. They also temporarily waived the Jones Act, allowing foreign vessels to transport oil between U.S. port to alleviate supply bottlenecks. 2022 RUSSIAN INVASION?OF UKRAINE Russia’s full-scale attack on Ukraine in 2022 triggered a?energy crises as European countries scrambled?to reduce their dependency on Russian oil and _gas. The search for alternatives to oil led to a spike in prices of over 50% in just a few short weeks. Crude reached some of its highest levels since 2008. Joe Biden, the then-president of the United States, ordered 180 million barrels to be released over a six-month period in March 2022 to combat the surge. The U.S., along with other Western nations, also placed price caps on Russian crude oil exports in an effort to reduce Russian funding of the war without taking the oil off the market. (Reporting from Anushree mukherjee in Bengaluru and Anmol choubey; Editing by Sharon Singleton).
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US consumer spending and core PCE inflation are firmer than before the Iran war
U.S. Consumer spending increased solidly in January, and the rate of inflation remained high. This, along with the long-running war in the Middle East, strengthened the view among economists that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates again before September. Other data released by the Commerce Department Friday, despite the slightly higher-than-expected rise in spending, were not encouraging. The non-defense capital goods orders, which are closely watched as a proxy for business expenditure, were unchanged in January. Economic growth also slowed more than originally thought during the fourth quarter. The reports, which came in the wake unexpected job losses that occurred in February, put stagflation in the spotlight, complicating the job of the U.S. Central Bank. "We see a sharp rise in inflation, and a weaker economy in the second quarter, due to the spikes in gas and energy prices. We also see weaker exports in the wake of disruptions in other parts of the world, as well as a decline in business confidence," explained?Kathy Bostjancic. The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Commerce Department reported that consumer spending, which makes up more than two thirds of the economy, increased by 0.4% in January, after rising by the same margin in the previous month. Consumer spending was expected to rise by 0.3%, according to economists polled. BEA has yet to release data due to delays caused by the government shutdown last year. The government shutdown was the longest ever, and it weighed heavily on spending. This, along with consumer spending slowing down late last year, and business investment slowing down, all contributed to a 0.7% annualized rate of growth in the fourth quarter. The GDP was previously estimated to have grown at a pace of 1.4%. The third quarter saw an economy that grew by 4.4%. The U.S. and Israeli war on Iran could have a negative impact on consumption, as it has increased oil prices. AAA data shows that retail gasoline prices have increased by more than 20 percent to $3.60 a gallon since the war began. The war also causes volatility on the stock exchange, and economists warn of a reduction in wealth among households with higher incomes that could force them to reduce their spending. The main drivers of the economy and consumer spending are high-income households. As tariffs on imported goods increased prices, lower-income households already reduced their spending. U.S. shares opened mixed. The dollar gained against a basket currency. Treasury yields in the United States fell. A SLOWER GROWTH IN THE ECONOMIC INDUSTRY IS EXPECTED The second quarter was expected to be the most difficult for the economy. Before the war, inflation was high. BEA reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index increased by 0.3% in January, after increasing 0.4% in December. PCE inflation increased by 2.8% in the twelve months to January after increasing by 2.9% in December. PCE prices rose 0.4% excluding volatile components such as food and energy, which was in line with expectations. Core?PCE inflation rose 3.1% on an annual basis, the biggest increase since March 2024. It had risen 3.0% in December. The Fed uses PCE inflation to track its 2% target. Next Wednesday, the central bank will likely keep its overnight benchmark interest rate between 3.50% and 3.75%. Economists believe that the window for rate reductions is closing. Financial markets expect a single cut this year, in September. Census Bureau, a separate report of the Department of Commerce, showed that core capital goods orders remained unchanged in January after increasing by 0.8% in December. Economists predicted that orders for these goods would rise 0.5%. Shipments of capital goods declined by 0.1% in January after rising 1.0% in December. The business spending on equipment may increase due to increased spending on artificial intelligence and data centers. On Thursday, the government announced that capital goods imports had reached a new record. This was largely due to computers and telecommunications gear. The government reported on Thursday that imports of capital goods rose to a record high, driven by computers and telecommunications equipment. The orders for durable goods (items such as toasters and aircraft that are meant to last at least three years) were unchanged in January, after dropping by 0.9% in December.
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Greenland's Siumut Party withdraws from the ruling coalition
Greenland's Siumut Party has withdrawn from a 'coalition' government, said the Prime Minister 'on Friday. This weakens efforts to present an united front against U.S. president 'Donald Trumps' 'campaign' to 'take control of the Arctic Island. The party's departure comes after Siumut chair Aleqa Hammond warned that it would leave if two Greenlandic Ministers declared candidacies in the March 24 Danish parliamentary elections without a prior "leave". Greenland's Premier Jens-Frederik Nie expressed disappointment, but stated that his "government" would continue. He stressed the importance of good governance in a time of increased global scrutiny. He told reporters: "It's terrible timing, and I'm frustrated and disappointed because it's happening at a time we should be standing together." He said that foreigners would be attracted by anything that looked like a division in the country. We should avoid this at all costs. The broad coalition was a cornerstone in?Nielsen?s strategy for responding to Greenland?s worst time since recent history, as he called it. According to KNR, Siumut’s departure means that Greenlandic Minister of Foreign Affairs Vivian Motzfeldt is leaving the post. She has reportedly played a 'key role' in diplomatic discussions with the United States. The government's majority is not threatened by the loss of support from 'Siumut,' which has four seats in Greenland’s Inatsisartut Assembly, with its remaining 19 seats. Greenland is set to elect two new members of the Danish parliament in the coming weeks. (Reporting and editing by Terje Solsvik, Louise Rasmussen and Stine Jacobsen)
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Russia could sell electricity to Kyiv via the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant
The 'head' of Russia's state nuclear corporation stated on Friday that Russia will control the relaunch and operation the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant when it is safe. However, it would also be willing to talk about selling electricity to Ukraine. The comments of Rosatom chief Alexei Likhachev revealed the gap between Moscow and Kyiv regarding the status of this plant, which Russian troops captured in the early weeks of the 2022 war. Peace talks are centered around the fate of the southern Ukraine plant. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has proposed that American nuclear plants in Ukraine, including Zaporizhzhia be owned or managed by America. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, said in December the U.S. proposed a joint trilateral operation with an American as the chief manager. He said Kyiv proposed a joint Ukrainian-U.S. operation of the plant with an American chief manager. PREPARE TO RESTART OPERATIONS Likhachev, the Russian minister of energy and industry, said that six reactors at the plant are currently being kept cool in order to ensure safety. However, he added that preparations were underway to restart them as soon as security permitted. He said that 'Russia has issued operating licenses for two of the units. A third is coming soon and licences are also being prepared for the other units. Likhachev, after meeting Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told reporters: "We are prepared to restart the work. The necessary equipment is available." He said: "As soon we have the chance, we'll start up and operate the station under IAEA oversight." Likhachev described an example in which Rosatom would operate the plant, but that "commercial aspects could be viewed on a multilateral basis". He added that "under certain conditions, it could be discussed whether electricity is supplied to Ukraine". Likhachev stated that the 6 gigawatts could be used to power data centers. "We may have new partners here...we're talking about the United States among others." GROSSI: PEACE AND CALM ARE NEEDED Grossi said to reporters: "We are in need of peace and calm. A nuclear power plant cannot operate if it is threatened by a violent or kinetic act. You cannot, of course start a nuclear plant "overnight." Russia and Ukraine were at war over this plant in southern Ukraine. They have often accused each other that they had shelled it. Likhachev stated that the number of artillery attacks, drone strikes and mortar fire has increased in recent months. Grossi was praised for his role in organizing the latest ceasefire - the 5th so far – around the plant to allow repairs to the external power lines which help keep the nuclear materials from overheating.
California oil prices rise as Iran's war puts pressure on refiners
California fuel prices are even higher than the rest of the United States. Due to several factors, the fallout from the Iran war is expected to push pump price in California to $10 per gallon. Jet fuel prices have risen by 47% in two weeks.
California is isolated from the rest of 'U.S. because of its mandated gasoline blend and lack of access to pipelines. The Strait of Hormuz closure has made it heavily dependent on Asian energy imports.
The state has already seen the highest gasoline costs in America. And there's more to come. Energy economist Philip Verleger wrote that the U.S. West Coast would become the poster child of the effects of the attacks against Iran. He added that California drivers should expect to see gasoline and diesel shortages in the near future and prices above $10 per gallon. In the last month, regular gasoline prices have risen by more than 18% in California. According to AAA, American Automobile Association, the pump price on Friday was $5.42 per galon. This is much higher than the national average of $3.63. According to OPIS, the prices of jet fuel in Los Angeles have increased by more than 47% since the conflict began in the Middle East. The average price is $3.85 per gallon.
Verleger said that West Coast states would need to reduce their use of gasoline and diesel by 20% if nations exporting fuel to the area restrict or stop flows in order to protect domestic markets.
VULNERABLE TO "SUPPLY SHOCKS" California, a state that was once the top oil producer in the U.S. has become more dependent in recent years on fuel and crude imports, as some refineries have closed or switched to renewable fuels in response to a move away from fossil fuels. Some analysts have warned that this reliance on crude oil has made the state more susceptible to supply shocks. Refineries in China and India have had to reduce production due to a shortage of Middle Eastern crude. Some even declared force majeure, a legal measure that allows companies the right to stop deliveries during emergencies. China, Thailand and other countries have stopped fuel exports. Last year, the U.S. West Coast imports a record 128,000 barrels of motor gasoline per day. The majority of this came from South Korea and India. According to Kpler, a ship tracking company, California imported jet fuel at a rate of 54,000 barrels per day, with nearly a third coming from South Korea. The Korean imports are expected to dry up in the near future, and Washington State, which is next door, does not have much spare refining capacity.
According to Kpler's figures, the West Coast refineries import about 230,000 barrels of Middle Eastern crude oil per day, which is about 50% of Middle East crude imported to the United States. Refineries must now look for alternative barrels that will cost more. As refiners scramble for oil, heavy crude prices have risen.
Matt Smith, analyst at Kpler said that "all the crude oil that West Coast refiners imported from the Middle East was at risk." He added that refineries would be forced to purchase?crude from Canada or Latin America. According to EIA data, the refineries owned by Chevron in Richmond and El Segundo as well as Marathon Petroleum in Los Angeles were California's biggest importers of oil in 2025. Marathon's spokesperson confirmed that it was fulfilling all contractual obligations but refused to comment on crude sourcing and refining. Chevron's spokesperson refused to comment on the daily operations, but did note that the refineries are still supplying customers in the area.
There are few alternatives to crude oil due to the strong demand in Asia.
Kpler's Smith said that at 'best', only half a milllion barrels of Canadian crude oil are available to West Coast refining companies due to the constraints on Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline and the 'demand' from Chinese buyers. Asian refiners might also look to purchase more Latin American crude oil from Ecuador or Guyana.
Smith stated that the West Coast refiners in the United States do not have a lot of additional supply.
Rystad's Bell stated that West Coast refiners would try to maximize Alaska North Slope crude supplies, redistribute Canadian oil, and could buy Venezuelan oil in spite of the shipping difficulties.
Donald Trump may temporarily waive a rule on shipping called the Jones Act. This law requires that domestic crude be shipped by tankers flying the U.S. flag, increasing the cost of shipping from the U.S. Gulf Coast to California refiners. This could bring some relief to prices.
Debnil Chowdhury is the head of refinery and marketing for S&P Global Energy. She said that "all other regions also need barrels right now due to a panic about availability." There's now competition for barrels.
(source: Reuters)