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Investors rush to safe havens as oil prices spike after US bombs Iran's nuclear sites
Investors said that a U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites could trigger a knee-jerk response in global markets upon their reopening, sending oil costs higher and triggering an exodus to safety. They were assessing how this latest escalation would affect the global economy. The attack announced by Donald Trump via the social media website Truth Social deepens U.S. participation in the Middle East conflict. Investors were considering a variety of market scenarios as they headed into the weekend. They expected that the U.S. involvement would cause a selloff of equities, and possibly a bid for the dollar or other safe-haven investments when trading began. However, they also stated that there was still a lot of uncertainty regarding the outcome of the conflict. Trump described the attack as "successful", but few details were available. He was scheduled to speak later Saturday. Mark Spindel is the chief investment officer of Potomac River Capital. He said, "I believe that markets will be initially alarmed and that oil will open higher." "We haven't done any damage assessment yet and it will take time. We're still engaged, even though he described it as "done". What's next? Spindel said. "I believe the uncertainty will blanket the markets as Americans are now exposed everywhere. He added that it would increase volatility and uncertainty, especially in the oil market. Spindel said, however, that there is still time to digest this news before the markets open. He also said that he would be making arrangements to speak to other participants in the market. OIL PRICES AND INFLATION The markets are most concerned about the impact that the Middle East developments could have on the oil price and, therefore, on inflation. An increase in inflation may dampen consumer confidence, and reduce the likelihood of interest rate reductions. Jack Ablin is the chief investment officer at Cresset Capital. He said, "This creates a new and complex layer of risk to which we will have to pay attention." This will have a direct impact on the energy prices, and possibly on inflation. The S&P 500 is little changed after an initial decline when Israel attacked Iran on June 13th. Analysts at Oxford Economics had modeled three scenarios before the U.S. attack Saturday. These included a deescalation of conflict, a shutdown of Iranian oil production, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. "Each scenario has an increasing impact on global oil prices." Oxford stated in the note that the worst case scenario would see global oil prices rise to $130 per barrel by the end this year. This would cause U.S. inflation to reach 6%. The note was published prior to the U.S. strike. "Although a price shock will inevitably reduce consumer spending due to the impact on real incomes. However, the magnitude of the increase in inflation, and the concerns over the possibility of second-round effects, are likely to ruin any chances of rate reductions in the U.S. for this year," Oxford wrote in the report. Jamie Cox of Harris Financial Group said that oil prices were likely to spike after the announcement. Cox, however, said that he expects prices to level out in a couple of days because the attacks may lead Iran to look for a peace agreement with Israel and the United States. Cox stated that "with this demonstration of strength and the total destruction of its nuclear capability, they have lost all their leverage and are likely to hit the escape button for a peace agreement." Economists warn a sudden rise in oil costs could harm a global economy already stressed by Trump's tariffs. History suggests that any pullbacks in equity prices could be temporary. In the past, when Middle East tensions reached a boiling point, such as the 2003 Iraq invasion or the 2019 attacks against Saudi oil facilities the stocks first lagged but quickly recovered and traded higher in the following months. According to Wedbush Securities' and CapIQ Pro's data, the S&P500 averaged a 0.3% drop in the three weeks immediately following conflict. However, it was 2.3% higher two months later. DOLLAR WORSE A escalation of the conflict could have mixed consequences for the U.S. Dollar, which has fallen this year amid concerns over the diminished U.S. exceptionalalism. Analysts said that if the United States directly engages in the Iran-Israel conflict, the dollar may initially benefit from an increase in safety bid. "Are we seeing a flight towards safety?" Steve Sosnick is the chief market strategist of IBKR, Greenwich in Connecticut. It's difficult to imagine that stocks will not respond negatively, but the question is by how much. It depends on Iranian reactions and whether oil prices spike."
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The key facilities of Iran's nuclear program
Donald Trump, President of the United States, said that on Saturday, U.S. forces had carried out a "very succesful attack" against nuclear sites in Iran. This included a facility located deep within a mountain in Fordow, South of Tehran. Israel has struck Iranian nuclear sites after launching its attacks on Iran in June. These include Natanz, the centre of Iran's uranium-enrichment programme, as well as Khondab, an incomplete heavy-water research reactor. Here are some of Iran’s most important nuclear facilities. Where are Iran's nuclear facilities? The Iranian nuclear programme is spread out over many different locations. Although the threat of Israeli aerial strikes has been looming for decades, only a few of the sites are underground. IRAN HAS A NUCLEAR WEAPONS SYSTEM? The United States, as well as the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, believe that Iran had a secret and coordinated nuclear weapons program which it stopped in 2003. The Islamic Republic has denied ever possessing or planning one. Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities as part of a 2015 agreement with world powers. In exchange, the deal lifted international sanctions. The pact collapsed after Trump, during his first term in office, pulled out the United States in 2018. Tehran began to abandon the restrictions the following year. IS IRAN INCREASING ITS URANIUM ENRICHMENT? Yes. Since the deal fell apart, Iran has expanded its uranium-enrichment programme. The "breakout time", or the amount of time needed to produce weapons-grade uranium to make a nuclear weapon is now days or a little more than one week instead of at least a full year as it was under the 2015 agreement. It would take more time to actually make a bomb using that material. The exact time is not known and the debate continues. Iran enriches uranium up to 60% fissile purity, which is close to 90% weapons grade, at two locations. In theory, it has enough material to make six bombs if enriched any further. NATANZ Complex at the centre of Iran's nuclear enrichment program, located on a plain bordering mountains south of Tehran in the Shi'ite holy city of Qom. Natanz is home to two enrichment facilities: the huge, underground Fuel Enrichment Plant as well as the above-ground Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant. In 2002, an exiled Iranian group revealed that Iran was building secretly Natanz. This sparked a diplomatic standoff with the West over Iran's nuclear intentions. The standoff continues to this day. The FEP is a facility designed for commercial enrichment, with a capacity of 50,000 centrifuges. Around 16,000 centrifuges had been installed, and 13,000 were in use, refining the uranium up to 5% purity. The FEP is described by diplomats who are familiar with Natanz as being three floors underground. It has been long debated how much damage Israeli aircraft could cause to the building. Other means of damage have been used to destroy centrifuges in the FEP, including an explosion that occurred and a power outage in April 2021 which Iran claimed was an Israeli attack. The PFEP above ground only houses hundreds of centrifuges, but Iran enriches up to 60% purity in this area. FORDOW Fordow, on the other side of Qom is a site for enrichment dug into the mountain. It's probably better protected against potential bombardment as the FEP. Trump tweeted on social media that "Fordow has been destroyed." Iran was not allowed to enrich in Fordow under the 2015 agreement with major powers. The facility was equipped with around 2,000 centrifuges, most of which were advanced IR-6 machines. Of these, up to 350 of them could enrich up to 60%. In 2009, the United States announced that Iran had secretly built Fordow for many years without informing the IAEA. Barack Obama, then-President of the United States, said that "the size and configuration is inconsistent with a peace programme." ISFAHAN Iran's second-largest city, Isfahan has a major nuclear technology center on its outskirts. The facility includes the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant as well as the Uranium Conversion Facility that converts uranium to uranium Hexafluoride, which is then fed into centrifuges. Diplomats claim that Iran stores uranium enriched at Isfahan. There is equipment at Isfahan to make uranium metal, a process that is particularly proliferation-sensitive since it can be used to devise the core of a nuclear bomb. Isfahan will be a new location for 2022, according to the IAEA. It has machines that can make centrifuge components. KHONDAB Iran has a heavy-water reactor that is partially constructed. It was originally named Arak, and it's now called Khondab. Heavy-water research reactors are a risk to nuclear proliferation because they produce plutonium easily, which can be used, just like enriched Uranium, as the core for an atomic weapon. The 2015 agreement saw construction halted and the core of the reactor removed, then filled with concrete, rendering it useless. The reactor would be redesigned to "minimize the production of Plutonium and to not produce weapon-grade Plutonium during normal operation". Iran told the IAEA it intended to begin operating the reactor by 2026. TEHRAN RESERVE CENTRE The Iranian nuclear research facilities at Tehran include a reactor for research. BUSHEHR The only nuclear power station in Iran, located on the Gulf Coast, uses Russian fuel, which Russia takes back after it has been used, reducing proliferation risks.
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UK issues 10-year industrial plan to boost growth
Next week, Britain will publish a multi-billion-pound 10-year industrial strategy aimed at supporting priority sectors, creating employment and driving long-term growth. The government of Prime Minister Keir starmer has been developing a blueprint for next decade, as part its "Plan for Change", which seeks to revamp the country's skill system, encourage innovation and channel new investment into areas with high growth. The UK has pledged to spend more than 2 billion pounds on a variety of government funds that will support the creative industries, sport and skills development. Business Minister Jonathan Reynolds announced on Sunday that 275 million pounds would be used to train thousands of people in engineering and defense roles. The new skills system will allow British workers to secure well-paying jobs in industries of the future and stop relying on foreign labour. Alex Veitch welcomed Reynolds' promise. He is the director of policy for the British Chambers of Commerce. Veitch stated that "the extra cash invested for training in key industries, such as engineering and defence, can be a real springboard to growth." The government had previously stated that it would change its defence strategy to deal with threats from Russia, cyber attacks and nuclear risks. Starmer promised in February the biggest sustained increase in British defense spending since the Cold War ended, in response U.S. president Donald Trump's demand that Europe take greater responsibility for its security. Other Pledges The government also promised a boost of 380 million pounds for the creative industries, from film to videogames. And more than 900 millions pounds to upgrade grassroots facilities and stage major sporting events. Business groups have said that high energy costs are a threat to UK industries and urged the government to take action. The report, published in June by the manufacturing association Make UK, warned that Britain's energy intensive sectors could suffer a long-term decline if government action is not taken. The report called for reforms to network costs, relief schemes targeted at specific groups and more predictable pricing of energy. In her spending review of June 12, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves acknowledged these pressures. She outlined departmental budgets, and highlighted more than 10 billion pounds in investment in green infrastructure. She confirmed that the British Industrial Strategy Council would oversee the implementation of the growth plans of the government.
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One Russian attack kills one person in eastern Ukraine and one in the north
Officials said that Russian strikes Saturday on Donetsk, a key town on the eastern front in the war in Ukraine, killed at least one individual. Another person died in a drone strike in the north near Russia's border. The Russian military announced that its forces had taken another village as they slowly advanced westward through the Donetsk Region. Reports from Kharkiv in the north suggest that Russian troops are closing in on Kupiansk. Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and other cities were attacked by Russian forces. Both towns have been repeatedly attacked since the Russian invasion in February 2022. Vadym Fillashkin, the governor of Donetsk Region, said that one person was killed and three injured in Sloviansk. Pictures posted online showed buildings reduced to rubble. Four multi-storey buildings and 32 private residences were damaged, he said. Pictures posted by the Kramatorsk city council show heavy damage to a part of an apartment block. Officials reported that at least one resident was injured and trapped under the rubble. One person was killed and local infrastructure damaged in a mass drone attack near the Russian border on Nizhyn. The Russian Defence Ministry announced that its forces had taken over the village of Zaporizhzhia southwest of Pokrovsk where Ukrainian forces were holding off Russian attacks for several months. Zaporizhzhia is a village in Ukraine, not the city Zaporizhzhia. The latter is a large industrial centre located about 160 km (90 mi) to the south. The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces listed the village on Friday as one of many where Kyiv’s forces had successfully repelled Russian attack. The Russian Defence Ministry announced on Friday that it had taken Moskovka village, located just outside of the city of Kupiansk. This village was also the subject of Russian attacks over the past few months. Bloggers from both the Russian and Ukrainian militaries have reported a recent increase in combat around Kupiansk. The town was occupied first by Russian forces during the early weeks of 2022, but captured by Ukrainian troops in a lightning-fast counter-offensive later that year. (Reporting and editing by Franklin Paul, Oleksander Kozoukhar)
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Senior Iranian official: European proposals at Geneva are unrealistic
On Saturday, a senior Iranian official claimed that the proposals made by European powers during talks in Geneva on his country's nucleo programme were "unrealistic", and that it would be hard to reach an agreement if they stuck with them. On Friday, there were few signs that progress had been made after the E3 (Britain, France, Germany and the EU) and their Iranian counterpart met to try and prevent the conflict between Israel, Iran and the EU from escalating. The Europeans' discussions and proposals in Geneva were unrealistic. "Insisting on this position will not bring Iran or Europe closer to an accord," said the senior official, speaking under condition of anonymity. The official stated that "in any event, Iran will review European proposals in Tehran" and then present its response at the next meeting. Both sides indicated on Friday that they are willing to continue talking, but no new date has been set. European diplomats claimed that Friday's discussions were meant to test Tehran's willingness for a new deal on nuclear energy, despite the fact that there was no immediate prospect of Israel ceasing its attacks. Two European diplomats, who did not reveal the details of the proposals made by either side, said that the E3 believed that Israel would not accept a ceasefire within the next few months and that Iran and the U.S. would find it difficult to resume talks. The idea is to start a parallel negotiation track without the U.S. on a new agreement that involves tougher inspections including possibly of Iran's missile programme. However, Tehran would be allowed some nominal uranium-enrichment capability. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, spoke on Saturday with his Iranian counterpart. He said that both sides agreed to speed up negotiations. However, he insisted that Iran must "provide every assurance" of its peaceful intentions. The senior official rejected the possibility of discussing Iran's defensive capabilities, such as its missile program, and reiterated that the idea that zero enrichment is a dead-end. The official stated that Iran welcomes diplomacy, but not in the shadow of war. John Irish contributed to the writing and reporting. Mark Potter and Hugh Lawson edited the article.
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Rosneft's head says OPEC+ can increase oil production by a year
Igor Sechin said that the OPEC+ group, which includes major oil producers around the world, could accelerate its production increases by a year compared to their initial plan. He said the decision of OPEC+ to increase output now looks far-sighted and justifiable in light of the conflict between Israel and Iran. In April, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies led by Russia shocked the oil markets by agreeing to a larger-than-expected increase in output for May, despite low prices and a slowing of demand. OPEC+ decided to increase prices by more than originally planned. "The increase in production announced since May this year is more than three times the initial plan of the alliance. He said that the entire increase in OPEC+ could also be shifted a full year ahead of schedule. He added that "the decision taken by OPEC to increase production forcefully looks very farsighted today and justified from the point of view of the market, taking into consideration the interests of consumers, in light of uncertainty regarding the size of the Iran-Israel war." OPEC+ crude oil output is approximately 41% of the global oil production. The main goal of the group is to regulate oil supply to the global market. After years of reducing production, eight OPEC+ nations increased their output modestly in April, before tripling the amount for May, then June, and now, July. OPEC+ also has two additional layers of cuts, which are expected to continue until 2026. The OPEC+ decision of increasing oil production initially caused the price of oil to fall, but an aerial conflict between Israel and Iran is the primary reason for the return of prices to $75 per barrel. This level has not been seen since the beginning of the year. Sechin, an ally of Russian president Vladimir Putin for many years, said that despite the increase in production, there would be no oil glut on the long term due to the low levels of stockpiles, although the rising use of electric vehicles by Chinese consumers could affect oil demand. Putin said that he agreed with OPEC on Friday, that the demand for oil would remain high. Putin also stated that the conflict between Iran & Israel had not caused oil prices to rise significantly, and that OPEC+ did not need to intervene on oil markets. Sechin said Rosneft has budgeted for the price of oil to be $45 per barrel this year. This is the price level that the European Union considers as the new cap on Russian oil imports. The price cap now stands at $60.
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Israeli military claims it has killed two Iranian Revolutionary Guard Commanders
Israel Katz, Israel's Minister of Defense, said that the Israeli military killed a veteran commander from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards overseas arm in an attack on an apartment in Iran’s Qom Province. Katz stated that Saeed Izadi led the Palestine Corps, the overseas arm or Quds force. Later, the Israeli military said it had killed a second leader of the Guards overseas arm. It identified him as Benham Shariyari. The strike was carried out overnight in western Tehran. The report said that the commander was "responsible for all weapon transfers from the Iranian government to its proxies in the Middle East". According to Israeli military, Shariyari provided missiles and rockets fired at Israel by Hezbollah and Hamas to Yemen's Houthis and Hezbollah. The IRGC has not confirmed the death of the two leaders. The Quds force built up an alliance of Arab allies, known as Axis of Resistance. It established Hezbollah Lebanon in 1982, and supported the Palestinian militant Islamist Hamas group in Gaza Strip. The Iranian-aligned network suffered major blows in the past two years as Israeli offensives have been launched since Hamas' attacks on Israel, October 7, 2023. This has weakened the Palestinian group, and Hezbollah. Katz claimed that Izadi had financed and armed Hamas in the first attacks. He described the commander's death as a major achievement for Israeli intelligence. Izadi has been sanctioned by both the U.S.A. and Britain for what they claim are his links to Hamas, and the Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad which was also involved in the attacks of October 7.
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Israeli Defense Minister: Military killed the head of Palestine Corps in IRGC’s overseas arm
Israel Katz, Israel's Minister of Defense, said that the Israeli military killed a veteran commander from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards overseas arm in an attack on a Qom apartment. Katz released a statement about the veteran commander Saeed Izadi who led the Palestine Corps Quds Force. The IRGC has not confirmed this. The Quds force built up an alliance of Arab allies, known as Axis of Resistance. In 1982 it established Hezbollah and supported the militant Islamist Palestinian group Hamas. Hezbollah and the Palestinian group Hamas have both been weakened by Israeli offensives following Hamas attacks against Israel on October 7, 2023. Katz claimed that Izadi had financed and armed Hamas in the first attacks. He described the commander's death as "a major achievement for Israeli Intelligence and the Air Force". Izadi has been sanctioned by both the U.S.A. and Britain for what they claim are his links to Hamas, and the Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad which was also involved in the attacks of October 7.
Sources say that Israel wants to take swift action against Iran with the split US administration
Two sources say that Israeli officials told the Trump administration that they did not want to wait for Iran to come to a deal in two weeks to dismantle the key parts of their nuclear program. Israel could also act on its own before the deadline expires, amid ongoing debates within Trump's team over whether the U.S. is involved.
Two sources with knowledge of the issue said that Israel expressed its concerns to Trump Administration officials in a phone call they described as being tense on Thursday.
Sources who spoke under condition of anonymity said that Israeli officials did not want to wait for the two weeks set by U.S. president Donald Trump on Thursday in order to decide whether the U.S. would get involved in the Israel-Iran conflict.
According to a source in the security industry, Israeli participants included Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as well as Defense Minister Israel Katz, and Chief of Military Staff Eyal Zmir.
Sources claim that Israel believes it has a short window of time to act against Fordow, which is the crown jewel of Iran’s nuclear program. The U.S. has the only bunker-busting weapons powerful enough to reach this facility that is buried into a mountain.
Reports on Saturday indicated that the United States was moving B-2 Bombers to Guam in the Pacific, confirming the possibility of an attack by the U.S. The B-2 is capable of carrying America's 30,000 pound GBU57 Massive Penetrator designed to destroy deep-underground targets, like the one in Fordow.
Person familiar with the situation in Washington said that Israel had communicated to the U.S. government that it believed Trump's window up to two weeks was too long and more urgent action was needed. The person didn't say if the Israelis raised this issue during the high-level phone call.
Sources claim that during the call Vice President JDVance was adamant about the U.S. not being directly involved, and suggested the Israelis would drag the country into a war. A security source said that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was also on the call.
An official at the White House strongly disagreed with the description of Vance's remarks in the phone call, but refused to elaborate. The official spoke on condition of anonymity and said that the Vice President had not made this comment during the phone call.
The Jerusalem Post had reported earlier that there was a telephone call on Thursday.
Some prominent members of Trump's base have urged him to avoid a Middle East conflict.
Vance, who has often criticized the past U.S. participation in conflicts such as Iraq and Afghanistan but recently defended Trump from Republican critics, who urge the administration not to get involved in the Iran conflict.
Other Republicans, such as Trump ally Lindsey Graham from South Carolina, expressed their hope that Trump would help Israel destroy Iran's nuclear programme.
Trump, who ran on a campaign promise to keep America out of "stupid wars" abroad, has at times seemed to be unsure whether he should join Israel's attack on Iran, or focus diplomatic efforts on ending Tehran's nuclear programme. His rhetoric has grown more aggressive in recent days.
Iran insists its nuclear program only has peaceful purposes.
A request for a comment from the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office was not responded to immediately. The Iranian mission at the United Nations did not respond immediately either.
Strike on Fordow Increasingly Likely
Netanyahu has publicly stated that he does not rule out Israel attacking Fordow on its own, but officials haven't provided any specifics about how this would be accomplished.
Four sources have said that it's more likely than not that Israel will launch an independent military operation. Two sources said that the Israeli air superiority makes a solo military operation more likely, but still risky.
One source said that Israel believes it has the momentum, but is limited in time due to the cost of the war.
Source: "I don't think they will wait much longer."
Uncertainty exists as to whether such an attack would be conducted by bombing or ground forces. Two sources stated that Israel could do more damage to the site than destroy it.
One source, who declined to provide further details, suggested that this could mean concentrating on the destruction of what is within the site, rather than the actual site.
Analysts have suggested that Israel may use special forces to blow up Fordow from the inside.
A source with knowledge of the situation said that another scenario under consideration would be to launch a series munitions rapidly in order to break through the fortified area, similar to the way the Israeli military killed Hezbollah's Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in the past year.
The source claimed that a special forces incursion could follow a strike of this nature.
Israel may not have munitions strong enough to penetrate a fortified installation. Many people believe that U.S. involvement is needed to increase the chances of success.
Even with the combined firepower of a U.S. and Israeli military operation, experts in the military and nuclear field believe that a military action would only temporarily set back a programme the West fears already aims to produce atom bombs someday, though Iran denies this. (Reporting and editing by Don Durfee, Maayan Loubell, Alexander Cornwell, Samia Nakhoul, and Emily Rose. Additional reporting and editing by Matt Spetalnick, Steve Holland, and Maayan Nakhoul in Washington, and Maayan Lulbell in Jerusalem.
(source: Reuters)