What is the risk of nuclear contamination from Israel's attack on Iran?

Israel claims it wants to prevent a nuclear catastrophe in the region, which is home to millions of people as well as producing much of the oil in the world. Israel's military announced that it had hit a Bushehr site on the Gulf Coast, home to Iran’s only nuclear power plant. But later said the announcement was an error.

Here are some details about the damage that Israel has caused and what experts have to say about the dangers of contamination and other disasters.

What has Israel done so far? Israel has declared attacks on nuclear sites at Natanz, Isfahan and Arak, as well as Tehran. Israel claims it wants to prevent Iran from building an atom-bomb. Iran has denied ever wanting one. IAEA, the international nuclear watchdog, has reported damage at the Natanz uranium plant, the Isfahan nuclear complex, including the Uranium Conversion Facility and the centrifuge production plants in Karaj, Tehran and Karaj. Israel announced on Wednesday that it had targeted Arak (also known as Khondab), the location of a heavy-water research nuclear reactor. This type of reactor can produce plutonium easily, which can be used, like enriched Uranium, to make an atom bomb's core.

The IAEA reported that they had received information that Khondab Heavy Water Research Reactor had been struck, but it was not operating and had no reported radiological effects.

WHAT RISKS DO STRIKES LIKE THIS PRESENT?

Peter Bryant, professor of radiation protection science at the University of Liverpool, England, who specializes in nuclear energy policy and radiation protection, has said that he's not concerned with the fallout risk from the strikes.

He pointed out that the Arak facility was not in operation while the Natanz site was underground. No radiation leakage was reported. He said that the issue was controlling what happened in that facility. Nuclear facilities were designed to do that. He said that uranium is only dangerous when it's inhaled, ingested, or gets into your body.

Darya Dolzikova is a senior researcher at London's think tank RUSI. She said that attacks on the facilities at the front of the nuclear fuel chain - where uranium gets prepared to be used in a reactor -- pose chemical risks, and not radiological ones.

UF6, or uranium hexafluoride is the main concern at enrichment plants. She said that when UF6 reacts with the water vapour in air, it creates harmful chemicals.

She added that the weather conditions would affect how much material was dispersed. In low wind, material is likely to settle near the facility. In high winds, material will travel further, but also disperse widely.

Underground facilities have a lower risk of dispersion.

What about nuclear reactants?

A strike on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor would be of major concern.

Richard Wakeford is Honorary Professor of Epidemiology, University of Manchester. He said that whereas contamination from attacks on the enrichment facilities will be "primarily a chemical issue" for the nearby areas, extensive damage of large power reactors would "be a different tale".

He added that radioactive elements could be released into the ocean or through a plume containing volatile materials.

James Acton, director of the Nuclear Policy Program for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said that an attack on Bushehr could "cause an absolute radiological disaster", but that an attack on enrichment plants was "unlikely" to have significant off-site effects.

He said that uranium is barely radioactive before it enters a nuclear reactor. "The chemical form of uranium is toxic, but it doesn't travel long distances. It's also barely radioactive." "Israel's attacks so far have had virtually no radiological effects," he said, despite his opposition to Israel.

Why are Gulf States particularly concerned?

The Gulf States' impact on any attack on Bushehr will be exacerbated by the possible contamination of Gulf water, putting at risk a vital source of desalinated drinking water.

According to the authorities, in the UAE, more than 80% drinking water is desalinated, and Bahrain has become fully dependent on desalinated waters since 2016. 100% of the groundwater was reserved for contingency planning.

Qatar is completely dependent on desalinated drinking water.

According to the General Authority for Statistics, in Saudi Arabia, which is a larger country with more natural groundwater reserves, 50% of water supplies will be desalinated by 2023.

Some Gulf States, such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates, have access to multiple seas to draw their water, but countries like Qatar and Bahrain are congested along the Gulf shoreline with no other coastline.

If a natural catastrophe, an oil spill or even a targeted assault were to disrupt a water desalination facility, hundreds of thousands would lose their access to freshwater instantly, said Nidal Ilal, Professor and Director of the Water Research Center at New York University Abu Dhabi.

He said that coastal desalination plants were particularly vulnerable to regional hazards such as oil spills and nuclear contamination.

(source: Reuters)