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PMI data shows that Saudi Arabia's growth in the non-oil sector slowed down in April.
A survey released on Monday showed that Saudi Arabia's private sector non-oil activity expanded at a slower pace in April due to a sharp slowdown in the growth of new orders, while hiring rates were at their highest level in over a decade. The Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index slid from 58.1 to 55.6, its lowest reading since August last year, down from 58.1. It is still firmly in the growth zone. The third consecutive month of decline in the new orders subindex, from 63.2 to 58.6, reflected the global economic uncertainty and the competitive pressures. Naif Al Ghaith is the chief economist at Riyad bank. He said that while output growth remains strong, it has been somewhat dampened by global economic uncertainty and pressures from competitors affecting consumer spending. "Despite this, the employment figures are still on the rise, showing a consistent growth trend since May last year." Businesses increased their staffing to meet the demand. The rise in employment is a result of rising sales and business activities. The survey found that the level of business optimism was lower than the average over the course of the survey. Saudi Arabia's economy grew by 2.7% in its first quarter. This was largely due to the growth of the non-oil sectors as the country continues its diversification away from hydrocarbons. The state statistics authority has expanded and updated its data collection in order to align the data with international standards. Reporting by Hugh Lawson; Editing by Hugh Lawson
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Australian Energy Group Congratulates Re-Elected Albanese Government
Australia’s oil and gas industry congratulates Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Federal Labor’s re-election on Saturday and looks forward to continuing to work with the Government on necessary reforms for Australia’s long-term energy security and economic growth.Australian Energy Producers Chief Executive Samantha McCulloch said the decisive election result provided an opportunity for energy policy certainty and stability in the next term of Parliament. “Australia and our region’s economic growth and energy security needs reliable and affordable gas supply which requires continued investment in new gas exploration and development,” McCulloch said.“We look forward to working with the Albanese Government on advancing the shared goal of boosting Australian gas supply to ensure reliable and affordable energy for Australian homes and businesses.”McCulloch said the Government needed to address the regulatory delays and uncertainty in the environmental approvals system. “Australia has abundant gas resources, yet we face gas shortfalls this decade due to regulatory uncertainty, approval delays and policy interventions that have delayed new gas supply and damaged Australia’s investment competitiveness. Addressing these risks must be a priority for the new Parliament.” Australian Energy Producers has outlined key actions to unlock the economic, energy security and emissions reduction potential of Australia’s gas sector:• Boost Australian gas supply to ease cost of living pressures• Restore Australia’s global competitiveness for investment• Deliver real emissions reductions with gas and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS)• Remain a reliable energy partner in our region.McCulloch said the election showed Australians do not support the Greens’ reckless policies, including a ban on new gas projects which would put Australia’s energy security at risk and drive-up energy costs.“With cost-of-living top of mind for voters, the Greens cannot be allowed to continue to hold legislation to ransom in the Senate,” McCulloch said. The Greens look likely to win two seats in the House of Representatives, when in 2022 they won four. Labor is on track to have 27 senators, the Coalition 26, the Greens 11, with others making up another six.
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Barclays lowers Brent crude forecasts for 2025 and 2026 as OPEC+ increases output.
Barclays lowered their Brent oil forecast by $2 per barrel for 2026 and $4 for 2025, citing OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production. Barclays stated in a note dated Sunday that "Tariff related developments have been a drag, but the OPEC+'s pivot has also played a major role in the recent decline in oil prices." OPEC+ - which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, such as Russia - agreed on Saturday to increase oil production for a second month in a row, increasing output by 411,000 barrels / day in June. OPEC+ sources claim that Saudi Arabia wants to speed up the unwinding process of the earlier production cuts in order to punish Iraq and Kazakhstan, who have not met their production quotas. Barclays stated that the OPEC+ decisions are more related to fundamental strength and external influence rather than concerns over member overproduction. Brent crude futures dropped more than $2 per barrel during early trading on Monday and were at $59.20 by 0250 GMT. Barclays expects OPEC+ will phase out additional voluntary adjustments in October 2025. They also expect a slightly slower growth of U.S. crude oil production. It said that this would loosen their estimates of balance by 290 thousand barrels a day (kbd), and 110 kbd, for 2025. Barclays has also revised its baseline on OPEC+. It expects the group to continue their accelerated path in phasing-out additional voluntary adjustments. Barclays stated that this would lead to an increase of 390 kb/d in 2025, and 230 kb/d in 2026 in their OPEC crude predictions. Barclays forecasts that the U.S. crude oil production will decline by 100 kbd between the fourth quarters of 2024 and 2025. This will then increase to 150 kbd by 2026. (Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Varun H K)
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Bloomberg News reports that Adani representatives meet Trump officials to try and end US bribery.
Bloomberg News reported that representatives of Indian billionaire Gautam Adani, and his companies, met with officials in the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump to request dismissal of criminal charges brought against him as part of an overseas bribery investigation, according to people familiar with this matter. According to the report, the talks that began in January gained momentum over the past few weeks. If the pace continues, they could result in a resolution within the next month. In November, U.S. officials indicted Adani along with his nephew Sagar Adani. They alleged that the two men paid bribes for Indian power supply contracts and misled U.S. Investors during fund raisings. The SEC summoned Adani, his nephew and others on the grounds that they had paid millions of dollars in bribes for Indian officials. They also allegedly misrepresented anti-bribery compliance when a $750,000,000 Adani Green Energy bond was issued. Bloomberg News reported that Adani's representative is trying to convince Trump that the prosecution of his case does not align with Trump priorities and should therefore be reconsidered. Bloomberg declined to comment on the report from an Adani Group representative and spokespeople at the Justice Department, White House or White House. The Adani Group and the U.S. DOJ have not responded to requests for comment. Adani Green announced late last month that its review of the U.S. Indictment had found no irregularities or non-compliance. (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahaniwala in Bengaluru, Bipasha Dey)
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South Africa's Gold Fields will buy Australia's Gold Road for $2.4 billion in a deal
Gold Road Resources announced on Monday that South Africa's Gold Fields would acquire Gold Road Resources as part of a sweetened agreement, valuing Gold Road's Australian equity at A$3.7billion ($2.39billion), Gold Road. This comes amid a surge in mergers and acquisitions due to the sky-high gold prices. Gold Road's share price rose as much as 12 percent on the offer. The offer was made at a premium of 14.5% to the last closing price. The purchase will allow Gold Fields, a joint-venture partner with Gold Road, to consolidate its ownership of the low-cost and long-life Gruyere Gold Mine in Western Australia. The deal is the third major one in six months, in a sector that has become a hotbed for global mergers and purchases. Rising geopolitical uncertainty is driving soaring yellow metal prices to record highs. The Australian gold miner Northern Star Resources has agreed to purchase De Grey Mining (DEG.AX), in a deal that involves all shares worth A$5 Billion, while Ramelius Resources announced it would acquire smaller rival Spartan Resources in order to create a combined A$4.2 Billion group. Gold Road shareholders are entitled to receive A$2.52 in cash per share, and a variable cash component that is equal to the value of their stakes in Northern Star Resources. Gold Road had rejected Gold Fields' March offer of A$2.27 per share in cash plus the variable component, which Gold Fields offered. The deal was worth A$3.40 for each Gold Road share as of Friday's closing. Gold Fields announced on May 2, that it is in active talks with Gold Road. However, the company did not respond immediately to a comment request made outside normal office hours on Monday. (1 Australian dollar = 1.5504 dollars) (Reporting and editing by Kim Coghill, Sonali Paul and Melanie Burton from Melbourne and Bengaluru)
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Former F1 racer Jochen Mass, winner of Le Mans and former Le Mans champion, has died at the age of 78
Jochen Mass died aged 78. He was the former Formula One driver who won the first grand prix where a woman finished in the top ten and also took part in the fatal 1982 accident of Canadian Gilles Villeneuve. His family announced his death on Instagram Sunday, citing complications from an aneurism he suffered in February. McLaren won the Spanish Grand Prix in 1975 at Barcelona's Montjuic Circuit. The race was cut short and half points were awarded when Rolf Stommelen, a compatriot from Belgium, crashed his Lola off the track killing four spectators. Lella Lombardi from Italy, the last woman to compete in F1, came sixth and earned half a F1 point. In 1982, during qualifying for the Belgian Grand Prix in Zolder, Mass's Ferrari collided with Villeneuve's Ferrari. Later that year, the German retired from Formula One. Jacques, Villeneuve's 1997 world champion son, assured him that "our family never held you responsible. It was a racing accident." Stefano Domenicali, the CEO of Formula One, said: "I'm deeply saddened by the news of my friend Jochen Mass's death." "He lived an incredible life in the heart of Formula One and was a wonderful, loving person who loved life and Formula One." Mass won the Le Mans 24 Hours in 1989 with Swiss-based Sauber. He raced in 114 grand prix and later had a career as a television broadcaster. (Reporting Alan Baldwin, Editing Pritha Sakar)
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Oil prices drop by more than $2/bbl after OPEC+ increases production
Oil prices dropped by more than $2 a barrel in the early Asian trading on Monday, as OPEC+ was set to increase oil production even more. This sparked concerns over more supply. Brent crude futures fell $2.04, or 3.33 percent, to $59.25 per barrel at 2240 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was $56.19, down $2.10 or 3.60%. The two contracts reached their lowest levels since April 9 on Monday, after OPEC+ agreed that they would increase oil production for a second month in a row. They will raise output by 411,000 barrels / day (bpd) in June. Calculations show that the June increase will bring the combined April, May, and June increases to 960,000 bpd. This represents a 44% reduction of the 2.2 millions bpd in various cuts agreed upon since 2022. Tim Evans, the founder of Evans on Energy, said in a report that "the May 3 OPEC+'s decision to increase production quotas by another 411,000 bpd to June increases the market expectations that the global demand/supply balance is moving towards a surplus." The group can be divided into two or more groups. Fully unwind OPEC+ sources said that if member countries do not improve their compliance with production quotas by the end October, they will be forced to make voluntary cuts. OPEC+ sources claim that Saudi Arabia has pushed OPEC+ members to speed up the unwinding process of previous output cuts in order to punish Iraq and Kazakhstan, who have failed to meet their production quotas. Amarpreet Singh, an analyst at Barclays, said that the accelerated phase-out by OPEC+ had caused them to lower their Brent forecasts by $4 to $66 a barrel in 2025 and $2 to $60 a barrel in 2026. Tensions have risen in the Middle East since Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged to take retaliation against Iran over the Tehran-backed Houthi Group Fire a missile This plane landed in Israel's main airport. Aziz Nasirzadeh, Iran's defence minister, said on Sunday that Tehran will continue to defend itself. Strike back If the United States or Israel attack. (Reporting and editing by Diane Craft, Chris Reese and Florence Tan)
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Four sources claim that OPEC+ will continue to increase oil production.
OPEC+ will increase oil production and may unwind the voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels a day by the end October if the members don't improve their compliance with their production quotas. OPEC+ surprised the oil market by releasing cuts faster than expected in April, despite low prices and weak demand. Sources have claimed that the move was intended by OPEC+'s leader Saudi Arabia as a punishment for some members who failed to meet their quotas. On Saturday, the group, including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, such as Russia agreed to another major output increase for June, bringing the total of the production it plans to release between April, may and June to almost 1 million bpd. Four anonymous OPEC+ sources who were briefed about the situation said that OPEC+ would likely continue the trend, and in June will agree to release another 411,000 bpd for July. OPEC, Saudi Arabia's government communications office and Alexander Novak's office in Russia did not respond immediately to a comment request. Sources said that the group would likely approve accelerated increases for August, September, and October. The idea is to unwind the rest of the voluntary cuts in the event that Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other laggards fail to improve their compliance and deliver compensation reductions. One source said that if compliance did not improve by November, the voluntary reductions would be unwound. This was referring to OPEC+ voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd by eight members. OPEC+ continues to cut output by nearly 5 million bpd, and many of these cuts will remain in place through the end of 2026. In December, OPEC+ agreed that the voluntary portion of the total reductions would be phased out gradually by the end September 2026. However, they agreed to speed up this process in April. In April, oil prices dropped to a 4-year low below $60 per barrel due to accelerated OPEC+ increases and U.S. president Donald Trump's new tariffs. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated that the market would take this news as a negative, so long as crude oil exports did not indicate an improved compliance with OPEC+. Reports this week stated that Saudi officials had informed allies and officials from the oil industry that they were unwilling to support oil markets by cutting further supply. Kazakhstan's energy minister defied OPEC+ by saying he would put national interests ahead of those of OPEC+ when deciding the level of oil production. Kazakhstan's oil production in April exceeded its OPEC+ quota despite a 3% drop. (Alex Lawler, Yousef Sabah and Dmitry Zhdannikov contributed additional reporting; Dmitry Zhdannikov wrote the article. Frances Kerry and Helen Popper edited it.)
OPEC+’s 'healthy crude oil market' looks like catching a flu: Russell
The OPEC+ group's increased supply is not based on the reasons they claim.
On May 3, the eight OPEC+ member countries who have agreed to voluntary production cuts decided to relax their curbs for June. This time, they added back 411,000 barrels a day (bpd).
Calculations show that the June increase will bring the combined April, May, and June increases to 960,000 bpd. This represents a 44% reduction of the 2.2million bpd decrease.
In a statement posted on the website of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the eight stated that the decision to increase output was made due to "the current healthy market fundamentals as reflected by the low oil inventory."
OPEC+ has a problem because there is no evidence that the market is healthy. While crude inventories may be slightly lower than five-year averages, they are still far too high to cause any concern.
The OPEC report for April shows that the commercial crude oil inventories of developed economies within the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) were 2.746 million barrels as of the end February. This is down 16.1 millions barrels compared to the previous month and 71,000,000 barrels below their five-year average.
Other words, OECD stock prices were only 2.5% lower than the average for the past five years. This seems reasonable, given the rise in crude oil prices between September and January, and the increased risk of a global slowdown following Donald Trump's return to the U.S. Presidency.
China, as the world's largest oil importer does not disclose its strategic or commercial inventories. However, it is likely that the storage flow in March was significantly increased after a slight decrease in the first two month of the year.
Based on official data, calculations based upon imports and domestic production as well as refinery throughput in March showed that China imported significantly more crude oil than it refined into fuels.
What can we make of OPEC+ claiming "healthy" fundamentals?
ASIA IMPORTS
It is instructive to look at the situation in Asia. This region is the largest importer of crude oil and accounts for about 60% of all seaborne volumes.
After a weak month of February, Asia's seaborne exports rebounded in March and April. According to commodity analysts Kpler, arrivals were 25,27 million bpd & 25.28 millions bpd.
It was an increase from 23,31 million bpd and 23,94 million bpd for January and February.
For the first four month of 2025, Asia's seaborne exports were still 280,000 bpd lower than the same period of 2024. This is hardly indicative of a healthy demand.
The increase in March-April was largely due to the increased imports from China. These were temporary factors.
Arrivals in March were boosted by an increase in imports of crude oil from Iran. Refiners bought cheaper crude as they feared increased U.S. restrictions on Iranian shipments.
China's imports of Russian crude oil increased in April after a decline in March due to tighter U.S. sanctions on ships carrying Russian crude.
In the coming months, there is also a mixed outlook for crude oil demand.
The trade war started by Trump is likely to start reducing oil demand.
The massive 145% import tariff from China has already reduced container shipping and is likely to affect air freight as well in the coming weeks.
The decline in consumer confidence will likely affect air and road travel.
Even if the trade tensions ease, the shipping slowdown is likely to continue for at least the next few months. It may even be longer because it will take some time for supply chain to recover or reworked.
What is the real goal of OPEC+ in increasing output?
All of the answers are valid.
Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the group, may be trying to get other members to lower their prices in order to increase quote compliance.
Saudi Arabia may also try to meet Trump's demands for lower prices. This would help him fulfill a campaign pledge to lower energy costs. However, it would come at the expense of the U.S. Oil Industry that he had promised to boost.
OPEC+ could also try to limit oil production in other major producers such as the United States or Brazil due to their higher costs of production.
It's difficult to argue anything but a negative case for oil, at least in the months ahead, as the likelihood of lower demand increases.
Brent futures fell as much as 3.7% during early Asian trading to a low price of $58.50 a barrel, down from a close of $61.29 a barrel on May 2.
These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
(source: Reuters)