US strikes on Iran shattered hopes for nuclear diplomacy

Foreign ministers of Europe's three largest powers met their Iranian counterparts in Geneva on Friday to try to diffuse the tensions over Iran's nuclear program.

These hopes were dashed Saturday, when U.S. president Donald Trump ordered airstrikes against Iran's main nuclear sites in support of Israel’s military campaign.

Abbas Araqchi - Iran's Foreign Minister - told reporters in Istanbul, Sunday, that it was "inappropriate" to ask Iran to resume diplomacy. He promised a "response", to the U.S. strike. It's not the time for diplomacy.

Trump warned that the U.S. would attack other Iranian targets if a peace agreement was not reached in his televised address on Saturday. He also urged Tehran to come back to the negotiation table.

Seven Western diplomats and analysts said that the prospects of negotiations were negligible for now. Washington's demands for Iran to stop enriching its nuclear fuel and Tehran's refusal abandon its nuclear program are not able to be bridged.

James Acton is co-director of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Nuclear Policy Program, a Washington-based think tank.

"I am more concerned about the escalation of the situation, both on the short-term and long-term."

According to European Diplomats, Trump's decision not to strike Iran was not communicated to the three European Allies, Britain, France, and Germany, in advance. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, had promised to speed up the nuclear talks on Saturday - before the U.S. strike - after a phone call with his Iranian counterpart.

Unidentified European diplomats acknowledged that a second planned meeting with Iran could not be held in the next week.

After the U.S.'s military action, it appears that any diplomatic role played by Europe will be secondary. Trump dismissed Europe's efforts to resolve the crisis on Friday, saying Iran wanted only to talk to the United States.

Analysts and three diplomats said that any future talks between Iran, and Washington, would most likely take place through Oman or Qatar as regional intermediaries, after Tehran decides what to do in response to U.S. strikes on its nuclear sites of Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Iran has few options left after the attacks. Some in Tehran have suggested that since Israel launched its military campaign against Iran, on June 13, Iran could withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to show their determination to speed up enrichment. However, experts warn this would be a significant escalation which would likely draw a strong response from Washington.

Acton of the Carnegie Endowment said that Iran's short-range missiles are the most obvious way to retaliate. These could be used against U.S. assets and forces in the region. He said that any military response from Iran would be fraught with danger.

"On one hand, the Americans want a response strong enough to make them feel that the U.S. paid a real price. He said that on the other hand they do not want to encourage a further escalation.

Three diplomats say that the European effort ended in failure. Even before the U.S. strike, the talks on Friday in Geneva were a complete failure. There was a huge gulf between the two parties and no concrete proposals were made. Diplomats believe that their mixed messages may have undermined the efforts of both sides.

The European position on Iran's enrichment programme has hardened over the last 10 days, as a result of the Israeli airstrikes and the threat of U.S. aerial bombardment.

Three years later, during Trump's first term, the three European powers (known as E3) were party to a nuclear agreement signed in 2015.

The Europeans and Tehran both believed that they understood how to reach a realistic agreement, given that the E3 has been dealing with Iran’s nuclear program since 2003.

The Europeans had a difficult relationship in the last few months with Iran, as they tried to exert pressure on it regarding its ballistic missile programme, its support for Russia and the detention of Europeans.

Two European diplomats say that France, the country most eager to negotiate, has suggested in recent days that Iran should move toward zero enrichment. This was not a demand of the E3 until recently, given Iran's redline on this issue.

Diplomats reported that Britain also took a more aggressive stance in Geneva. This was in line with Washington. The new German government also appeared to be moving in the same general direction, albeit with more nuance.

One EU official said that Iran will eventually have to accept the zero enrichment policy.

On Saturday, a senior Iranian official expressed disappointment with the Europeans’ new stance. He said that their demands were “unrealistic”, without giving any further details.

In a short joint statement issued on Sunday that acknowledged the U.S. airstrikes, the European countries stated they would continue to pursue their diplomatic efforts.

The Europeans said they were ready to help "in coordination with other parties" and called on Iran to enter into negotiations that would lead to an agreement that addressed all concerns related to its nuclear program.

David Khalfa is the co-founder of Atlantic Middle East Forum in Paris, which is a think tank. He said that the government of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had abused the Europeans to gain time while developing its nuclear program and missile capabilities.

He said, "The European effort ended in failure."

The Europeans have one more important card. As parties to the nuclear agreement, they are the only ones that can use the "snapback" mechanism, which will reimpose previous UN sanctions against Iran if the deal is violated.

Diplomats reported that, before the U.S. strike, the three countries discussed a deadline of the end of August to activate the system as part a "maximum-pressure" campaign against Tehran.

The U.S. has "MULTIPLE CHANNELS" for its talks

Officials from the United States said that the U.S. had launched 75 precision-guided weapons, including over two dozen Tomahawk missiles and more than one hundred and fifty military aircraft, in their operation against three nuclear sites.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Iran on Sunday against retaliation, and said that both public and personal messages were sent to Iran through "multiple channels" to give them the opportunity to negotiate.

Five rounds of indirect talks between the United States, and Iran have failed after the U.S. proposed at the end May that Iran abandon its uranium-enrichment program. Tehran rejected it, and Israel launched its attack against Iran after Trump's deadline of 60 days for talks expired.

Iran has said repeatedly since then that it will not negotiate during a war.

Two European diplomats and a senior Iranian official claim that Washington reached out to Iran even after Israel's strike to restart negotiations. It offered a meeting in Istanbul between Trump and Iranian president Masoud Pesekhkian. Three diplomats said that Iran rejected the offer, but Araqchi continued to maintain direct contact with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. Experts say that one of the biggest challenges of engaging with Iran is the fact that it's impossible to know the full extent of damage done to the country's nuclear program. The IAEA is severely restricted in accessing Iranian sites. It's unclear whether Tehran has hidden any enrichment facilities.

According to a senior Iranian source, most of the highly-enriched uranium from Fordow, which produces the majority of Iran's uranium that is refined up to 60%, was moved to an unnamed location prior to the U.S. strike there.

Acton of the Carnegie Endowment said that, despite the physical damage to Iran's installations, thousands of scientists, technicians, and engineers were involved in its enrichment program. Most of them had survived U.S.

Acton said, "You can't blow up knowledge." (Additional reporting in Brussels by Lili Bayer, Andrew Gray and Tom Perry; editing by Daniel Flynn.)

(source: Reuters)