Latest News

World Bank cuts global growth forecast due to trade tensions

The World Bank lowered its forecast of global growth for 2025 on Tuesday by 0.4 percentage points to 2.3%. It said that increased tariffs and uncertainty were a "significant" headwind for almost all economies.

The bank's twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects Report shows that it has lowered its predictions for almost 70% of the world's economies, including the United States and China, Europe, and six emerging markets regions. This is a significant drop from its projections six months earlier, before Donald Trump became president.

Trump has upended the global trade system with a series on-again-off-again tariff increases that have raised the effective U.S. Tariff rate from under 3% to its highest level in nearly a century. This has triggered retaliation from China and other countries.

The World Bank has cut its forecast for growth as a result Trump's unpredictable trade policies. However, U.S. officials claim that the negative effects will be offset by an increase in investment and yet-to-be-approved tax cuts.

The bank did not predict a recession but stated that global economic growth in this year will be the weakest since 2008, outside of a major recession. The bank did not predict a recession, but said that global economic growth this year would be its weakest outside of a recession since 2008.

The report predicted that global trade growth would be 1.8% by 2025. This is down from 3.4% last year and a third less than the 5.9% in the 2000s. Forecast is based upon tariffs that were in place as of late may, including the 10% U.S. duty on imports. The forecast excludes the increases announced by Trump on April 9 and then delayed until that date to allow for negotiation.

Tariff increases and tight labor markets are expected to keep global inflation at 2.9% by 2025. This is still above the pre-COVID level.

The bank stated that "risks to the outlook for the global economy remain firmly to the downside." The bank said that its models indicated that an additional 10-percentage-point increase in U.S. average tariffs on top of the already implemented 10% rate, as well as proportional retaliation from other countries, would reduce the outlook by 0.5 percentage points for 2025.

The report stated that such an increase in trade barriers could lead to "global trade stifling in the second half this year...accompanied by a widespread decline in confidence, rising uncertainty and turmoil on financial markets."

It said that the risk of global recession was lower than 10%.

"FOG ON RUNWAY"

This week, top officials from China and the United States will meet in London to try and defuse an ongoing trade dispute. The dispute has expanded from tariffs and restrictions on rare earth minerals to include a global supply-chain shock and slower economic growth.

"Uncertainty is a drag on the economy, just like fog on an airport runway." In an interview, Ayhan Kose, World Bank's Deputy Chief Economic Officer said that uncertainty slows down investment and clouds future prospects.

He said that there are signs of increased trade dialogue, which could help to dispel any uncertainty. And supply chains were adapting, rather than collapsing, to the new global trade map. He said that global trade could grow by 2.4% in 2026, with artificial intelligence developments also boosting growth.

He said, "We believe that the uncertainty will eventually decline." Once the fog lifts, trade may resume, but at a more moderate pace.

Kose stated that while the situation could worsen, trade continued and China, India, and other countries were still providing robust growth. He said that many countries were discussing new trade agreements which could be profitable in the future.

US GROWTH FORECAST CUT SHARPENLY

The World Bank stated that the global outlook has "substantially deteriorated" since January. This is mainly because advanced economies are now expected to grow by only 1.2%, down a half-point, after growing 1.7% in 2024.

The U.S. outlook has been lowered from 1.4% to 1.4% by a 0.9-percentage point drop, while the outlook for 2026 was reduced by 0.4-percentage points to 1.6%. The report said that rising trade barriers, "record high uncertainty" and an increase in financial market volatility would weigh on private consumption and trade.

The growth estimates for the euro zone and Japan were both reduced by 0.3 percent points to 0.7%.

The forecast for 2025 predicted that emerging markets and developing countries would grow by 3.8%, compared to the 4.1% growth in January.

The report stated that poor countries would be the worst affected. The report said that by 2027, the per capita GDP of developing economies would be 6% lower than pre-pandemic levels. It could take two decades for these countries to recover the economic losses from the 2020s.

Mexico's growth forecast was cut by 1.3 points, to 0.2%, in 2025. The country is heavily dependent on U.S. trade.

The World Bank has left its China forecast unchanged, at 4.5%. It said Beijing had the monetary and fiscal room to support and stimulate its economy. (Reporting and editing by Andrea Shalal)

(source: Reuters)