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Happy new world order!
Anna Szymanski What Mike Dolan, the ROI team and I are looking forward to reading, watching and listening to this weekend. From the Editor Hello Morning Bid readers! Welcome to the new year and what an eventful week! Donald Trump's renewed talk about "acquiring" Greenland, possibly through payments to its citizens, has also dominated headlines. This geopolitical drama has had limited market impact so far. The S&P 500 ended Thursday essentially flat after only modest movement this week. Yesterday, however, the U.S. Aerospace and Defence Index, as well as European defence shares, reached a new high. When the news of the U.S.-led strike in Caracas broke on Saturday, investors' attention was focused on energy markets. Venezuela is the home of the largest oil reserves in the world, 300 billion barrels. This represents around one fifth of the total global supply. Brent closed below $60 per barrel on Wednesday, as crude prices fell earlier in the week. This was due to expectations that additional oil would be added to a market already oversupplied. Prices have recovered since then. U.S. action in the Caribbean is likely to benefit oil refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast that were built decades earlier to process heavy crude, the type Venezuela exports. Caracas, in fact, has agreed to export as much as $2 billion of Venezuelan crude oil to the U.S. This will largely come at the expense China, which became the primary importer of Venezuelan petroleum after Trump imposed sanctions against the country's oil industry in 2019. It is possible to increase Venezuelan oil production, but it could take many years and cost billions. Even though President Trump claimed that U.S. energy companies would have the chance to revive Venezuela's defunct oil industry it is an offer they might want to reject. There are likely to be many reasons behind America's action in Caracas. However, a little-discussed reason could be that the White House is concerned about the declining global prominence of "the petrodollar", a tool which has helped the U.S. maintain dominance in global finance for years. Trump's actions and words this week may have investors taking more seriously the White House national security strategy that was released last year. This week, the markets received some of the most recent "clean" U.S. employment data since the government shutdown in the fall. However, the picture painted was far from clear. JOLTS showed that U.S. employment fell to a 14 month low in November, while hiring was sluggish. ADP's National Employment Report noted that private employment rose by 41,000 last month, after falling by 29,000 jobs in November. Friday, the non-farm payrolls for December will provide the clearest picture of the U.S. labour market. The December non-farm payrolls are expected to show that the unemployment rate has dropped to 4.5%, down from 4.6%. Federal Reserve is unlikely to be influenced by these data, but the policymaking body will still consider the future direction of interest rates. The Supreme Court's ruling today on the legality President Donald Trump’s global tariffs could be the most important news for the markets on Friday. Metals news today revealed that Rio Tinto and Glencore are reportedly in talks to merge. This could result in the world's biggest mining company, with a combined value of over $207 billion. Open Interest has more news on commodities and markets. Open Interest has more commodities and markets news. Find out why China is in a strange competition with the U.S. over spare copper, or what could spoil Wall Street's celebration in 2026. Check out the reading, listening, and watching suggestions from the ROI Team as we enter the weekend. Please contact me at This weekend we read... JAMIE MCGEEVER. China, Russia, Iran or any of 60 conflicts raging across the globe (the most since World War II) will not be the biggest source of instability in the world. The United States will be responsible." GAVIN Maguire, ROI - Global Energy Transition columnist: Michael Cembalest's incisive study of Venezuela's oil and its ability to supplement US refinery capacity in heavy and medium crude grades is a fascinating read. Andy HOME, ROI Metals columnist: The analysis by Prima Sidera of European strategic autonomy in defense sectors is timely given Trump's demand for European countries to spend more. RON BOUSSO is the ROI Energy columnist. Daniel Yergin’s The Prize provides a definitive history of the oil business. This week I pulled the classic from my shelf to remind myself of how oil was the driving force behind the foreign policies of the world's major powers during the 20th century. Check out the book's YouTube video for more great visuals. We are listening to... ANNA SZYMANSKI. ROI Editor-in Charge: Listen to Ron Bousso, ROI's Director of Research and Development, discuss the impact of U.S. action in Venezuela on?energy markets. We're watching... JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Finance columnist: New Yorker writer Jonathan Blitzer appeared on the Ezra Klein Podcast to discuss the regional implications and global impact of U.S. president Donald Trump's deposition of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Sign up for the newsletter to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email. Subscribe to the Morning Bid newsletter . ROI can be found on the Website You can also follow us on You can find us on LinkedIn. The opinions expressed are solely those of their authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to the Trust Principles and a commitment to independence, integrity, and neutrality. Sign up for the newsletter to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email. Subscribe to the Morning Bid newsletter Website You can find us on LinkedIn.
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Copper prices rise as bets are placed on future demand.
The copper price rose on Friday as investors renewed their bets that future demand will increase. Aluminium prices also reached their highest level since April 2022. Benchmark three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.8% by 1107 GMT to $12,943 per metric ton. Due to fears about tightening supply and bets on future surges in demand due to the AI boom and the energy transition, this metal used for power and construction hit a new record high of $12,387.50. Rio Tinto, a global mining company, is in the early stages of talks with Glencore to create the largest mining firm in the world, valued at nearly $207 billion. This follows the pending merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources to create an industry heavyweight focused on copper. Copper's sharp rise has forced prices into uncharted territory, making it difficult for traders to determine resistance and support levels. This momentum is a positive from a technical standpoint, according to Dan Smith, managing Director at Commodity Market Analytics. Smith said that two stimulus packages, introduced by China, the world's largest metals consumer at the end of 2025, are supporting broader sentiments and giving copper and other base metals an excellent start to the new year. The measures include a?allocation? of $8.9bn for a consumer good trade-in scheme in 2026, and investment plans involving two large construction projects with $42bn central budget funding. Aluminium was the only other LME metal to show a gain of 1.8%, at $3,145.50, after reaching $3,148.5, its highest level since April 2022. Zinc rose 0.4% to $3147, while lead gained 0.8% at $2,043. Tin climbed 2.3% at $44,650, and nickel was up by 2.2% to $17,530. (Reporting and editing by Venkatraman & Kirby Donovan; Polina Devitt)
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Meta signs nuclear power agreements With Three Companies
Meta Platforms announced on Friday that it had signed 20-year contracts to buy power from Vistra nuclear reactors in the heartland of America and develop projects with two companies looking to build small modular units. Vistra shares rose 8%, while Oklo's surged by nearly 20% in premarket trading. Meta and other Big Tech firms want to ensure long-term power supplies, as artificial intelligence (AI) and data centres increase U.S. electricity demand for the first two decades. In a 'blog, the company announced that it would purchase electricity from Vistra’s Perry and Davis-Besse plant in Ohio as well as Beaver Valley Plant in Pennsylvania. Meta said the deal would help finance expansion of the Ohio plants. The plants are currently licensed to run until at least 2036, with two reactors in Beaver Valley being licensed until 2047. Meta will help to develop small modular reactors, which are being planned by Oklo & TerraPower. TerraPower is backed up by Bill Gates. Supporters of SMR say that the reactors can be manufactured in factories rather than on-site, saving costs. Critics claim they will struggle with economies of scale comparable to large reactors. The U.S. has no commercial SMRs yet, and these plants will need permits. Joel Kaplan, Meta’s chief global affairs office, said that the plans, along with the agreement made last year with Constellation to keep an Illinois reactor operational for 20 years, will make Meta "one of the largest corporate purchasers in American history of nuclear energy." Meta stated that the agreements would provide up to 6.6 gigawatts by 2035. A typical nuclear power station is about 1 GW in size. Meta asked nuclear power developers in 2024 for interest in 1 to 4 gigawatts. Meta will fund the development of TerraPower's two reactors that can generate 690 megawatts by 2032. Meta will also receive energy rights from up to six TerraPower reactors before 2035. Chris Levesque, TerraPower's President and CEO, said that the agreement would support a rapid deployment of nuclear reactors. Meta has said that its partnership with Oklo could help Ohio develop up to 1,2 GW of electricity as early as 2030. Jacob DeWitte is Oklo co-founder, CEO and said that the support would help with "early procurement" and "development". (Reporting and editing by Timothy Gardner, Valerie Volcovici, and Cynthia Osterman).
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Malaysian palm oil prices rise for the week due to strong competition and Indonesia's levy plan
Malaysian palm futures declined on Friday due to a 'profit-taking', but they posted a weekly increase based on the strength of rival edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago Exchanges and Indonesia’s plan to increase its palm oil export tax. The benchmark March palm oil contract on the Bursa Derivatives Exchange fell 5?ringgit or 0.12% to 4,038 Ringgit ($992.14) per metric ton as of?closing. The contract rose by 1.18% in the last week. After the recent rally on rumours about Indonesia's levy hike, there are a lot of profit-taking activities going on today. Profit-taking?starts when Dalian close firm draws a selloff on the high of the week, said a Kuala Lumpur based trader. Eniya Listeiani Dewi, an official from the energy ministry, told reporters that Indonesia would likely increase its palm-oil export levy in order to support biodiesel production. She cited a lack of funds. Dalian's palm oil contract rose 0.6%, while the most active soyoil contract grew 0.33%. Prices for soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 0.51%. As palm oil competes to gain a share of the global vegetable oils market, it 'tracks' the price movement of other edible oils. Technical analyst Wang Tao stated that palm oil will likely retest the support level of 4,024 Ringgit per metric ton, since it has failed to break through resistance at 4,074 Ringgit.
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China encourages industrial parks in China to use more green energy on site
China wants industrial parks to use their green power on-site rather than sending it to the grid. This is according to an official document released on Friday. According to the Industry?Plan for Green Industrial Microgrids 2026-2030, released by the state planner, asset, market, and energy regulators, industrial parks with newly installed wind and solar power should use at least 60 percent of the electricity generated on-site, and send no more than 20% into the grid. Green industrial microgrids are defined in the document as including?renewable energy generation, waste energy utilization, green hydrogen storage, digitalised energy and carbon management, and battery?storage. According to the document, the policy is intended to reduce emissions, increase the use of renewable energy and boost industrial competition. Analysts predict that in the next few years, more areas of China will experience high curtailment rates. Grid managers limit the amount of electricity entering the network to maintain a balance or because grid infrastructure is limited. The policy document stated that industrial?microgrids must support demand response. This is where users reduce their consumption during peak times to lessen the load on the grid. The report also called on heavy industry to use waste heat for energy generation or to recycle it. It also told manufacturers to integrate digitalised energy management and carbon management systems. (Reporting and editing by Toby Chopra; Colleen howe)
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Meta signs nuclear power agreements With Three Companies
Meta Platforms announced on Friday that it had signed 20-year contracts to purchase power from three Vistra nuclear reactors in the heartland of the U.S. and to develop projects with two companies wishing to build small modular units. Meta and other Big Tech firms want to ensure long-term power supplies, as artificial intelligence (AI) and data centres increase U.S. electricity demand for the first two decades. In a blog, the company announced that it would purchase power from Vistra’s Perry and Davis-Besse plant in Ohio?and Beaver Valley Plant in Pennsylvania. Meta said that the deal would help finance expansion of the Ohio plants as well as?lengthening the lifespan of plants which are licensed until at least 2036, with one of the two reactors at Beaver Valley being licensed until 2047. Meta will help to develop small modular reactors by Oklo, TerraPower and Bill Gates' TerraPower. SMR supporters say that the reactors can be built in factories instead of on-site, which will save costs. Critics claim they will have difficulty achieving economies of scale comparable to those achieved by current large reactors. The U.S. has no commercial SMRs yet, and these plants will need permits. Joel Kaplan is Meta's chief global affairs official. He said that the plans, along with the agreement made last year with Constellation, to keep a Illinois reactor operational for 20 years, "will make Meta one of the largest corporate purchasers in American history of nuclear energy." Meta stated that the agreements would provide nuclear power up to 6.6 gigawatts by 2035. A typical nuclear power station is around 1 GW in size. In 2024, Meta sought to solicit interest from developers of nuclear power for up to 4 gigawatts. Meta will fund TerraPower to develop?two reactors that can generate up to 690 Megawatts of electricity as early as?2032. Meta will also receive energy rights from up to six TerraPower reactors before 2035. TerraPower CEO Chris Levesque stated that the agreement would support rapid deployment. Meta has said that its partnership with Oklo could help Ohio develop up to 1,2 GW of electricity as early as 2030. Jacob DeWitte is Oklo co-founder, CEO and said that the support would help with "early procurement" and development. (Reporting and editing by Timothy Gardner, Valerie Volcovici, and Cynthia Osterman).
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JPMorgan M&A global head Aiyengar says rising risks to drive surge in deals
Anu 'Aiyengar', JPMorgan Global Head of Advisory & M&A told a reporter that dealmakers will have another banner year - 2026 - with a record amount of deals on the way. CEOs are seeking the safety and scale of a large company to help them weather the mounting geopolitical and economic risks. Anu?Aiyengar, JPMorgan's Global Head of Advisory and M&A, said in an interview that last year saw the second highest amount of M&A deals ever, totaling $5.1 trillion. This was despite the stomach-churning gyrations caused by President Donald Trump’s changing trade policies, as well as a government shut down that stopped U.S. initial public offerings for over six weeks. Aiyengar stated, "We live in a world with a wide range of shocks and shock sources." "It is technology disruption, AI, supply chain risk, geopolitical risks, oil, energy, all of it." Trump's second tenure has brought about a new era where policy changes that were once unheard of now present a daily challenge to corporate CEOs. U.S.-China and Russia relations remain volatile, as the Trump Administration launches risky and dramatic military operations. These include an attack on the?Iran nuclear facilities last summer and a military campaign in Venezuela which ousted Venezuela's president. Trump is facing increasing protests at home after ICE agents 'killed' a 37-year old Minneapolis woman on Wednesday. This was the day he vowed not to allow defense contractors to buy back their stock if they didn’t speed up weapons production. Aiyengar stated that "if you're running a business, the amount of information you have to deal with and process is immense... no one could actually deal with it and come up wth perfect answers." She added, "Companies with scale can withstand this level of volatility because they have more levers at their disposal." Economic and political uncertainty are driving deals to get bigger. According to LSEG data, there were 68 record deals worth $10 billion and more in 2018, which is twice as many as 2024. JPMorgan ranked second in global M&A last year. In global M&A, last year, JPMorgan ranked No. Glencore confirmed on Thursday that it was in the early stages of talks with Rio Tinto to acquire its metals mining business. This could create the largest miner in the world. Rio Tinto, the world's largest iron ore mining company, is worth approximately $142 billion. Glencore was valued at $65?billion as of the latest stock market closing. She said that commodities will continue to be a sector to watch in this year along with energy and technology. She added that consumer and healthcare companies were also interested in various tie-ups. She said that in the past, the M&A activity was driven by the optimism of the economy and excess capital. But this time, boardrooms look at larger combinations to survive the rising political turmoil, AI disruptions, economic uncertainty, and market volatility. It reflects the mood. You don't wish to be left behind. "You know that there will be a lot of shots and volatility coming at you." (Reporting from Dawn Kopecki & Edmund Klamann).
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PPC raises the 2026 Japan Copper Premium to a record $330/T
Pan Pacific Copper (PPC), Japan’s largest supplier, has offered to sell the metal to domestic customers for a record price of $330 per metric ton by 2026. This was revealed on Friday by a source within the company. It reflects fundamentals of demand and supply. The physical delivery rate is three times higher than the benchmark LME price of $88, and is paid over and above LME benchmark prices. The rate also includes costs such as taxes and transport. The source said that this year's rise is due to a steep fall in treatment and refining fees (TC/RCs), which are the fees miner pay to smelters for converting concentrate into refined metal. This has boosted the raw material acquisition costs, prompting a company to pass on the burden to its customers. Concerns that the United States could impose tariffs on ingots of copper later this year has sparked speculative metal flows into North America. This has led to a tightening of supply in Asia. Source declined to identify themselves due to the sensitive nature of the subject. Mitsui Mining and Smelting, Marubeni and JX Advanced Metals own 47.8% of PPC. Mitsui Mining and Smelting holds 32.2% and Marubeni 20%. As their global counterparts, Japanese copper smelters also face a tumbling TC/RC, shrinking margins for smelting due to a lack of concentrate supply, and growing smelting capacities in China. Two?sources who are familiar with the situation said that Antofagasta, a Chilean copper miner, and a Chinese copper smelter reached an agreement last month to have zero TC/RCs by 2026. In 2025, the lack of supply at mines such as Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, was so severe that spot processing fees became negative. Smelters were left paying for a source of revenue they normally rely on. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Yuka Obayashi)
Trump and Congress act to lift the ban on mining in northern Minnesota imposed by Biden
According to documents and officials reviewed by, the Trump administration and U.S. Congress will launch a plan to reverse former president Joe Biden's ban on mining in northern Minnesota. This plan is intended to prevent future administrations taking similar measures.
The Twin Metals project in Antofagasta, which is one of North America's biggest untapped reserves of these critical minerals, has been developing for the last year.
The plan's details have never been revealed before.
Trump has refocused on domestic mining projects in the United States, even though his administration continues to push for mineral access.
Greenland
Ukraine
And elsewhere
Minnesota's plan will almost certainly escalate tensions over where to obtain minerals vital for an electrified economy, and national security. Copper, nickel, and cobalt is used in the manufacture of electric vehicles, AI-data centers, windmills, weapons, and a variety of other devices.
Omission of a record in the Congress
Biden, in 2023, blocked mining for 20 years on 225 504 acres of the Superior National Forest, citing concerns about the environment and the belief that the economy would be better served by?recreational activities than mining.
The ban on mining was not filed in the Congressional Record which tracks legislative actions and is an official 'notice to Congress', but rather the Federal Register which tracks executive branch actions.
A 1976 law called the Federal Lands Policy and Management Act requires a president to inform Congress about public land orders that cover more than 5,000 acres.
Trump's Interior Department has filed the notice with the Congressional Record in anticipation that Congress will reject it.
Interior Department notified the U.S. House of Representatives earlier this week. The U.S. Senate's Vice President JDVance received the notice, which is currently being reviewed by the U.S. Senate Parliamentarian.
The plan would be approved or rejected by Congress with a simple majoritiy within 60 days if it is approved by the parliamentarian. This vote is not subject to a 'filibuster.
Minnesota Representative Pete Stauber (a Republican from northern Minnesota) plans to introduce legislation by Friday that will reject the mining prohibition. If Congress and Trump approve, which is expected in the Republican-controlled body, a future president could not replicate Biden's ban because of a provision in the 1996 Congressional Review Act.
Mining Leases could be reissued
Staffers in Congress said that the complex legislative plan was a result of congressional efforts to include this measure into Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" which was signed into law by Trump last July.
We have industries in the United States that require these essential minerals. Stauber, also the chair of the U.S. House Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources in Washington, said that we must not rely on supply from foreign enemies like China.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
The Trump administration will be free to reissue mining permits for Antofagasta in Chile, which has tried for decades to develop the mine on federally controlled land. The mine will still have to go through an environmental review and get permits.
Stauber told him that the Trump administration has informed him they are working to reissue the leases. He did not provide any additional information.
Antofagasta’s Twin Metals unit expects to regain the leases?in a short time frame but has not commented on the efforts to reverse the mining ban before legislation is introduced.
Since 1996, the leases have been a political hot potato. Former President Barack Obama cancelled them before Trump reinstated in his first term. Biden then cancelled them again.
The site has not been mined.
TENSIONS - MINING AND OUTDOOR RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES
If built, the underground Twin Metals Mine would be a major source of nickel, cobalt, and copper in the United States. The only nickel mine in the United States is scheduled to close at the end of this decade.
More than 150,000 outdoor enthusiasts visit the region each year. Many of them have long been concerned that a mine disaster would pollute rivers, and spread quickly through the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness' 1.1 million acres and onto the Great Lakes.
Antofagasta is known for its commitment to protecting the environment. (Reporting and editing by Ernest Scheyder, Veronica Brown, Ni Williams)
(source: Reuters)